North American Energy OutlookThe Transformative Role of Shale in the Global Hydrocarbons Market –
Why It Matters to Commercial, Institutional, and Industrial End Users
Brian A. Habacivch
Constellation, Commodities Management Group
October 20, 2018
2
Constellation:
Who We Are
Delivering RECs for customers
enabling them to avoid
1.2 million metric tons of
GHG in 2015
Constellation is
among the top 10 commercial
solar
developers
Headquarters:
Baltimore,
MD
Continually investing in
emerging
energy
technologies
#1 C&I
Power
provider in
the US
*2016 data
Approximately 2.2 million
customers served
Dedicated team of
Regulatory,
Market &
Wholesale
Experts
© 2017 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of either Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC, Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., Constellation Energy Services - Natural Gas, LLC or
Constellation Energy Services, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved.
Errors and omissions excepted.
3
Generation Energy Sales & Services Transmission & Delivery
Exelon Generation Constellation* Atlantic City Electric,
BGE, ComEd,
Delmarva Power,
PECO and Pepco
Service:
10 million electric and natural
gas customers
Generation Capacity:
32,720 MW
Competitive C&I Load Served:
150 Annualized TWH (power)
688 Annualized BCF (natural gas)
Competitive Energy Sales:
Over 213k business & public sector
customers
Over 2 million residential customers
Wholesale sales, dispatch, and delivery
from Exelon’s ~33 GW power
generation portfolio
Exelon’s family of companies represents every stage of the energy
value chain.
*Q4 2016 data
© 2017 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of either Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC, Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., Constellation Energy Services - Natural Gas, LLC or
Constellation Energy Services, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved.
Errors and omissions excepted.
Natural Gas Prices and Electricity Prices are tied at the HIP
Presentation Title4
84% Correlated
ERCOT IS CURRENTLY AN EXCEPTION TO HIGHLY
CORRELATED GAS AND POWER PRICES
THE BIG PICTURE
Shale Revolution Transformation: Has Made the U.S. Largest Natural Gas Producer in World
© 2018 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC or Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate
subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.6
Source: EIA,
Shale Revolution Transformation -- U.S. Crude Oil Production –Growth Story
© 2018 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC or Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate
subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.7
Data sources: EIA
U.S. Crude Oil Production – Global Rank in 2018
© 2018 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC or Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate
subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.8
Data sources: EIA, Trading Economics.com/OPEC (Jan 2018) – NOTE – Crude Oil figures do not include OPEC condensate, OPEC NGL, Russian Condensate, Russian, NGL, or U.S. NGL, or bio fuels)
Shale Revolution has made the U.S. the largest NGL producer in the world. US NGL Production
Presentation Title9
The U.S. – The Emergent Hydrocarbon Superpower
Hydrocarbon Superpowers -- Export
Presentation Title10
EXPORTS – The Shale Revolution -- U.S. Is Rising Star in Crude Oil Exports
© 2018 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC or Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate
subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.11
Source: Source: EIA Weekly U.S. Exports of Crude Oil 2/16/2018
U.S. Current Crude Oil Exports -- 2.044 million barrels per day
Current estimated rank order of crude oil exporting countries:
1. Saudi Arabia – 7.3 million bbls per day (CIA Factbook 2014 – Crude Oil Exports)
2. Russia – 5.1 million bbls per day (CIA Factbook 2016 – Crude Oil Exports)
3. Iraq – 2.8 million bbls per day (CIA Factbook 2014 – Crude Oil Exports)
4. Canada – 2.7 million bbls per day (CIA Factbook 2016 – Crude Oil Exports)
5. Nigeria – 2.3 million bbls per day (CIA Factbook 2014 – Crude Oil Exports)
6. Angola – 1.7 million bbls per day (CIA Factbook 2014 – Crude Oil Exports)
7. Kuwait – 1.7 million bbls per day (CIA Factbook 2014 – Crude Oil Exports)
EXPORTS -- The Shale Revolution: U.S. Is Largest Exporter of Refined Petroleum Products in the World
© 2018 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC or Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate
subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.12
Data source: EIA
EXPORTS -- The Shale Revolution: NGL Exports Come of Age –U.S. World’s Largest Exporter of Propane
© 2018 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC or Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate
subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.13
Data source: EIA
• March 2016: First U.S. ethane export terminal at Marcus Hook, PA begins exporting to Europe.
• September 2016: Second U.S. ethane export terminal begins exporting from Houston Ship
Channel.
• In the past five years, U.S. exports of propane have grown ten fold. The Asian petrochemical
sector is now the largest customer for U.S. exports.
EXPORTS – U.S. Rising Star in Global LNG Market
© 2018 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC or Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate
subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.14
Source: Constellation, FERC, Bentek, EIA
The first cargo left
Sabine Pass on
February 24, 2016
bound for Brazil.
Cove Point, MD;
second U.S. LNG export
terminal commenced
deliveries March of
2018
Source: Bentek
U.S. LNG Export Capacity
10 Bcf/d by 2020 from
projects currently under
construction
EXPORTS -- Cove Point Sends Its First LNG Delivery
© 2018 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC or Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate
subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.15
Data sources: EIA, Dominion, Platts, NPR
• The first cargo left Sabine Pass on
February 24, 2016 bound for Brazil.
Owner and operator for the Cove
Point LNG export facility, Dominion,
announced on March 2 that the first
vessel carrying US LNG has
departed their new facility.
– The terminal was originally
expected to come online late in
2017.
• The terminal consists of one train
with nameplate capacity of turning
0.75 Bcf/d of dry gas to liquid (0.66
Bcf/d after operations, losses, etc.)
with 7 tanks on-site to provide
storage totaling 14.6 Bcf.• Cove Point is the second ever US LNG export facility
to come on line since DOE approval was granted in
2017
− Sabine Pass currently liquifying ~3 Bcf/d in
Louisiana was the first
• Dominion has long-term contracts for the projects
capacity secured with Gail India and Japan’s
Sumitomo.
EXPORTS --- China Signs 20 Year Deal For U.S. LNG
© 2018 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC or Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate
subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.16
Source: Cheniere Energy, EIA
• Asia is a key market for incremental LNG demand, where prices have historically been linked to
oil prices.
• Cheniere Energy signed its first long term contract (thru 2043) with China National Petroleum
Corp (CPNC) for off take from its Corpus Christi train #3 facility (0.6 Bcf/day)
• The U.S. will see Cove Point, Cameron 1, Elba Island and Freeport 1 come online by end of
2018 for ~2.0-2.25 Bcf/day. U.S. capacity will rise to 9 Bcf/day by 2019 but additional projects
will require offtake agreements.
Millions Tones
EXPORTS -- New Pipeline Capacity Supporting U.S. NG Export Growth to Mexico
© 2018 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC or Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate
subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.17
Source: EIA,
NYMEX Natural Gas Forward Curve vs. Third Party Forecasts
© 2018 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC or Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate
subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.18
Source: NYMEX, EIA
NYMEX Winter Strip Prices
19
Natural Gas
© 2017 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of either Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC, Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., Constellation
Energy Services - Natural Gas, LLC, Constellation Energy Services, Inc. or Constellation Energy Services of New York, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate subsidiaries of Exelon
Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.
Source: NYMEX
Prices as of COB 10/25/2018Note: Winter defined as November through March.
$2.50
$2.75
$3.00
$3.25
$3.50
$3.75
$4.00
$4.25
$4.50
$/M
MBt
u
NYMEX Winter Strips - 3 Year History
Winter 18/19 Winter 19/20 Winter 20/21 Winter 21/22
$/MMBtu W18/19 W19/20 W20/21 W21/22
Current $3.17 $2.90 $2.76 $2.74
Y-o-Y -1% -4% -8% -10%
vs. 3-yr Avg 0% -9% -15% -18%
vs. All-time Max -75% -78% -79% -80%
vs. All-time Low 17% 4% 2% 2%
Summary
The U.S. is undergoing a fundamental energy transformation.
The U.S. is the emergent hydrocarbon superpower and global swing producer.
The U.S. is the emergent energy exporting power.
Natural Gas and Electric power prices are tied at the hip.
The U.S. natural gas market is changing and new risks are presenting– because of exports --
subject to global pricing forces – very similar to crude oil.
The potential for rising energy price volatility is back on the table.
Energy prices in the forward markets are very low in nominal and real terms.
Energy consumers should be very interested in forward energy prices and thinking more
strategically.
You cant be 100% Right – Don’t be 100% wrong
Presentation Title20
Thank you.
Brian A. Habacivch
Principal, Constellation Energy, Commodities Management Group
Connect on Linkedin
Cell Phone – 502-341-1648
Disclaimer
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources which Constellation NewEnergy, Inc. and/or Constellation
NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC (collectively, “Constellation”) believes to be reliable. Constellation does not represent or warrant as
to its accuracy or completeness. All representations and estimates included herein constitute Constellation’s judgment as of the
date of the presentation and may be subject to change without notice. This material has been prepared solely for informational
purposes relating to our business as a physical energy provider. We are not providing advice regarding the value or advisability
of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the
“CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would cause us or any of our affiliates to be considered a
commodity trading advisor under the CEA. Constellation does not make and expressly disclaims, any express or implied
guaranty, representation or warranty regarding any opinions or statements set forth herein. Constellation shall not be
responsible for any reliance upon any information, opinions, or statements contained herein or for any omission or error of
fact. All prices referenced herein are indicative and informational and do not connote the prices at which Constellation may be
willing to transact, and the possible performance results of any product discussed herein are not necessarily indicative of future
results. This material shall not be reproduced (in whole or in part) to any other person without the prior written approval of
Constellation.
© 2018 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division,
LLC or Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and
product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.
22© 2018 Constellation Energy Resources, LLC. The offerings described herein are those of Constellation NewEnergy-Gas Division, LLC or Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., affiliates of each other and ultimate
subsidiaries of Exelon Corporation. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.
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