NORTH AFRICA TEAM
Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa
AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste, Italy, 3-15 June 2002
• Introduction…
•Where ?
•When ?
• How ?
National case studies in North Africa
Maro
ccoTunisia
Egypt
SETTAT Province
•Low and variable production
•Dry land agriculture
•Low precipitation
•High climate variability
•Drought damage
•High pop increase
CENTER REGION
• Low and variable production
• High pop increase
• Dry land agriculture
• Low precipitation
• High evaporation water deficit
• High RR var. (30mm, 215mm)
• Drough may occure in 1 year out of 3 or out of 4.
NILE DELTA
• High irrigated production
• Extreme urban water and land use conflicts
• Small holders
• Urban and land use water conflicts
• High pop increase
75% (arid, semi arid)87% (arid, semi arid)
95% (arid)
Rain PET R-PET215 1376 -1161
•Where ?
ة في ت��ونس أهمي��ة الزراع��ات المطرّي��1993 هك( 1000)
زراعة مطرّية/ المجموع
زراعةمطرّي
ة
زراعةسقوية
%97 1646
34 زراعة الحبو
93%ب 1835
130 األشجار
المثمرة
%28 42 108 الخضر
%92 285 23 مراعي
Cereals
FruitTrees
Rainfed agriculture
Over 80% of total water consumption used by agricuttural activities.
% rainfed from total
Country level: Crop responses of raiffed in Tunisia
Effect of irrigation Olive trees production
0
10
20
30
40Q
uin
tau
x/h
a
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
Rdt irrigué Rdt totale
0100 000200 000300 000400 000500 000600 000700 000800 000900 000
1 000 000
االنتاج ) طن(تطور إنتاج الطماطم الفصلية
6000000
6020000
6040000
6060000
6080000
6100000
6120000
6140000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
Nb pieds Production Olives
Morocco Settat Province
Tunisia Center Region
Egypt Nil Delta
Integration
Assessment, I & V of CC in North Africa
Climate / Scenarios / vulnerability
Stakeholder engagement
Impact
Evaluation and adaptation
3 cases studies
Links with others AIACC projects results
0-24 month
4-20 month
18-30 month
30 month
6-12 month
WHEN ?
Driving forces(Socio-economics)
Current Food SecurityMap, GIS, Indicators RF
Crop – Climate –ImpactsDSSAT
Id. Adaptation OptionsST analysis
Evaluate OptionsDSSAT, MCA
Future Food SecurityMap, GIS, CC, Adapt
RF RFS.H.
s. Ag
Other ag.(water supp.)
Stakeholders(Workshop?)
CC Scenarios(downscaling)
How ?
STsAg.
Other ag.(water supp.)
Stakeholders(Workshop?)
S.H. Example for Tunisia
Small Farmers (80%)
Regional Policy makers (CRDA)
Final report (results)
Morocco Egypt Algeria Libya Mauritania + Other AIACC projects.
Central Policy maker
(Ministry of agriculture)
Technical Policy makers
DGPA, UTAP, DGRE
National commissions
Extension service
Dec
isio
ns Project
Water resources management
- Changing system of water delivery and control
- Provide farmers with guidance on crop water management
- Provide incentives to avoid excessive water use- Water mobilization- Use of new water resources (Waste water, geothermal water, saline water, drainage water…)- Increasing water use efficiency- Etc………………
Adaptation policies I
Agriculture management
- Crop liberalization (Egypt)- Selection of cultivars(Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)- Planting date (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)- Soil mulch- Inter-cropping (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)- Increasing of agriculture area (Tunisia and Morocco)- Use of new techniques - etc…………………
Adaptation policies II
Adaptation policies III
Agricultural Trade: Morocco
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000To
tal v
alue
at b
ase
yr (m
illio
n$)
Imports
Exports
Trade BalanceTrade Imbalance
Trading
- Trading intra country
-Trading inter regions
- International trade
Linking Stakeholders-Adaptation-Scenarios-Vulnerability:• Matrix on current and future risk of adverse effects of
climate• Mapped index derived form a matrix that includes
climate change, impacts, and adaptive capacity
North Africa AIACC Project Outcomes
What components of the farming system are particularly vulnerable, and may thus require special attention? – CROP MODELS (e.g., DSSAT)
Can the water/irrigation systems meet the stress of changes in water supply/demand? – IRRIGATION MODELS (e.g., CROPWAT)
Will climate significantly affect national agriculture? – MODEL INTEGRATION; GIS INTEGRATION (e.g., DERIVING RESPONSE FUNCTIONS)
MODELS: Defining key questions
We have to be very careful with using model in our region because of the high variability (climate, soil, farmers behaviors…)
Top Related