No
YesNo
Yes
Longitudinal & Time Series
Cro
ss-S
ecti
onal
&
Pan
el D
ata
PEW Mobile Phone
Galton Children Height
Census
Text Sentiment
Old Faithful
Web Analytics
Titanic Survivors
Bank Loans
Job Classification
Stock Market
Predictive Modeling: Case Studies
• Old Faithful• Earthquakes• Flu
Old Faithful
Time Interval Between Eruptions
91.2
107.475.0
• 91.2 minutes between eruptions• 8.1 one standard deviation• 16.2 two standard deviations• 91.2 +/- 16.2 min 95%
107.4
75.0
Volume
Duration
Time Interval Until Next Eruptions
90
70
All predictions are made using a formula that takes into account the length of the previous eruption. The formula used has proven to be accurate, plus or minus 10 minutes, 90% of the time.
Sensor
CountdownClock
Down-hole video camera~22 m deep…
Old Faithful
• Visible, Measureable• Frequent• Repeatable• Single Geyser• Small Area, Same Place
Very Predictable
Non-Critical
Anything in the Business World that is similar?
• Manufacturing Processes -Statistical Process Control
Trends: Flu
Flu - Seasonal
• Annual, Seasonal• Consistent – sort of• Large Regional Area • Can be Critical• Semi-Predictable• Vaccine – Major Strains• Genetic Changes
plot(stl(beer,s.window="periodic"))
Time Series
Earthquakes
Earthquakes: “The Big One”
• Very Critical• Measureable: Seismograph• Large Earthquake Regions• Frequency
– Smaller Ones more Frequent– Big Ones less Frequent
Not Predictable
Very Critical
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