© New Paradigm Consulting 2003© New Paradigm Consulting 2003
© New Paradigm Consulting 2003© New Paradigm Consulting 2003
New Paradigm New Paradigm ConsultingConsulting
New Paradigm New Paradigm ConsultingConsulting
An Approach toAn Approach toStrategic PlanningStrategic Planning
Co-creating the Co-creating the FutureFuture
May 2003May 2003
© New Paradigm Consulting 2003© New Paradigm Consulting 2003
The organisation The business ecosystem
The future
Increasing
awareness
Scenarios(Imagining the future)
Strategic options
(Exploring our future possibilities)
Co-evolution(Discovering our place & relationships)
The Goal:The Goal:To increase awareness To increase awareness about the organisation, about the organisation, its environment and its environment and the future.the future.
The Goal:The Goal:To increase awareness To increase awareness about the organisation, about the organisation, its environment and its environment and the future.the future.
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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CultureCulture What are the patterns of thinking & behaviour What are the patterns of thinking & behaviour
which characterise the organisation?which characterise the organisation? Is change needed?Is change needed?
CompetenciesCompetencies What is the organisation distinctively good What is the organisation distinctively good
at?at? Do these give competitive advantage?Do these give competitive advantage? What needs to be developed?What needs to be developed?
The organisationThe organisation
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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The Compa
ny
The Custome
rs
Growth PhaseGrowth Phase
The centre of
gravity
The Custome
rs
The Compa
ny
Success PhaseSuccess Phase
The centre of
gravity
The Compa
ny
The Custome
rs
Entrepreneurial PhaseEntrepreneurial Phase
The centre of
gravity
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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The environmentThe environmentThe environmentThe environment
International lawInternational lawInternational lawInternational law
GovernmentsGovernmentsGovernmentsGovernments
Standards bodiesStandards bodiesStandards bodiesStandards bodies
StakeholdersStakeholdersStakeholdersStakeholders
Supplier’s Supplier’s supplierssuppliersSupplier’s Supplier’s supplierssuppliers
Customer’s Customer’s customerscustomers
Customer’s Customer’s customerscustomers
New entrantsNew entrantsNew entrantsNew entrants
CustomersCustomersCustomersCustomersSuppliersSuppliersSuppliersSuppliers
CompetitorsCompetitorsCompetitorsCompetitors
SubstitutesSubstitutesSubstitutesSubstitutes
OrganisationOrganisationOrganisationOrganisation
A Business EcosystemA Business Ecosystem
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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Mapping the ecosystemMapping the ecosystem“Our current relationships”“Our current relationships”
STEEP STEEP ((SSociety, ociety, TTechnology, echnology, EEnvironment, nvironment, EEconomics, conomics, PPolitics)olitics)
CustomersCustomers
MarketsMarkets
CompetitorsCompetitors
Five forcesFive forces
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
© New Paradigm Consulting 2003© New Paradigm Consulting 2003
The FutureThe Future
The future is inherently unpredictableThe future is inherently unpredictableThe purpose of planning is not to predict The purpose of planning is not to predict
the future but to increase the possibility the future but to increase the possibility space for the organisationspace for the organisation
The future is co-createdThe future is co-createdWe are neither passive victims of forces We are neither passive victims of forces
beyond our control nor masters of our beyond our control nor masters of our destinydestiny
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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Strategic optionsStrategic options“Our future possibilities”“Our future possibilities”
Key strategic issuesKey strategic issues What are the real areas which affect our business?What are the real areas which affect our business? (E.g. service, channel, market)(E.g. service, channel, market)
Formulate key decision areasFormulate key decision areas Where do decisions need to be made?Where do decisions need to be made?
Create clusters of optionsCreate clusters of options Discover coherent strategiesDiscover coherent strategies Check against distinctive competenciesCheck against distinctive competencies
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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Strategic Strategic option option
generatiogeneration:n:
one one approachapproach
Competence
Development
Existing
New
MA
RK
ETS
SERVICES
PROTECT/BUILD•Withdrawal•Consolidation•Market penetration
SERVICE DEVELOPMENT•Existing competencies•New competencies
MARKET DEVELOPMENT•New segments•New territories•New uses
DIVERSIFICATION•Existing competencies•New competencies
Existing New
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
© New Paradigm Consulting 2003© New Paradigm Consulting 2003
ScenariosScenarios“Imagining the future”“Imagining the future”
Identify key driving forcesIdentify key driving forces
Choose most uncertain/most Choose most uncertain/most significantsignificant
Develop alternativesDevelop alternatives
‘‘Flesh out’ with narrativeFlesh out’ with narrative
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
© New Paradigm Consulting 2003© New Paradigm Consulting 2003
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
Identify key driving Identify key driving forcesforces
Driver 1
Driver 3
Driver 5
Driver 4
Driver 2
Low
Low
High
High
Uncertainty
Importance
Note Note which key which key external external
drivers are drivers are both both
important important & &
uncertainuncertain
Note Note which key which key external external
drivers are drivers are both both
important important & &
uncertainuncertain
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Driver 2Driver 2
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
Formulate ‘yes-no’ questionsFormulate ‘yes-no’ questions
Yes
Yes No
No
Driver 5Driver 5
Scenario 1
Scenario 3
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 4
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Develop future time line for each Develop future time line for each scenarioscenario
20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006 20072007
Map out critical events leading to the Map out critical events leading to the unfolding of this scenario enabling you to:unfolding of this scenario enabling you to: Scan for triggers which will alert you to the Scan for triggers which will alert you to the
scenarioscenario Rehearse your strategic responses to the Rehearse your strategic responses to the
events of the scenarioevents of the scenario
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
© New Paradigm Consulting 2003© New Paradigm Consulting 2003
Cross-impact Cross-impact matrixmatrix
Test each Test each option option against each against each scenario.scenario.
SS WW
OO TT
SS WW
OO TT
SS WW
OO TT
SS WW
OO TT
SS WW
OO TT
SS WW
OO TT
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4
Actions
Learning
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
MMPP II
MMPP II
MMPP II
SWOT SWOT analysis is analysis is one useful one useful tool;tool;
de Bono’s de Bono’s Plus/Minus/ Plus/Minus/ InterestingInterestingis also is also good.good.Add Add learning learning points and points and actions actions required.required.
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Typical processTypical process Structured conversationsStructured conversations
Speak with as wide a range of people as Speak with as wide a range of people as possiblepossible
Ecosystem workshopsEcosystem workshops Look out before looking inLook out before looking in STEEP, customers, etc.STEEP, customers, etc.
Organisation workshopsOrganisation workshops Distinctive competencies & competitive Distinctive competencies & competitive
advantageadvantage Explore cultureExplore culture
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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Develop strategic optionsDevelop strategic options
Develop scenariosDevelop scenarios
Cross-impact competencies Cross-impact competencies against scenariosagainst scenarios
Prepare change agendaPrepare change agenda
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
Typical processTypical process
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Are scenarios the answer?Are scenarios the answer?Do scenarios help?Do scenarios help?
Shell used them effectivelyShell used them effectivelyIBM & General Motors did notIBM & General Motors did not
Why not?Why not?DiversityDiversity
Is there enough diversity in planning Is there enough diversity in planning process?process?
CultureCultureIs the culture open to new thinking & doing?Is the culture open to new thinking & doing?
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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Strategic intentStrategic intent
Strategic intent must inform all of Strategic intent must inform all of organisational lifeorganisational life
Strategic intent must take account Strategic intent must take account of the realities of the organisation of the realities of the organisation and its environmentand its environment
Strategic intent is more important Strategic intent is more important than ‘strategy’than ‘strategy’
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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Planning is not about…Planning is not about…Planning is not about predicting Planning is not about predicting
the futurethe future
Planning is not about writing a Planning is not about writing a detailed road map into the futuredetailed road map into the future
Planning is not about a few people Planning is not about a few people writing a vision statement & then writing a vision statement & then getting ‘buy-in’ from everyone elsegetting ‘buy-in’ from everyone else
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
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Planning is about…Planning is about… Planning is about learningPlanning is about learning
Planning is about increasing the Planning is about increasing the possibilities for the organisationpossibilities for the organisation
Planning is about discovering how fit the Planning is about discovering how fit the organisation is for its environmentorganisation is for its environment
Planning is about discovering and telling Planning is about discovering and telling compelling stories about the futurecompelling stories about the future
Overview
The Organisatio
n
The Future
The Process
Reflections
Business Ecosystem
© New Paradigm Consulting 2003© New Paradigm Consulting 2003
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