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Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants(data update 1/13/2012)
January 13, 2012
National Energy Technology Laboratory
Office of Strategic Energy Analysis & PlanningErik Shuster
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Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants
This report is intended to provide an overview of proposed new coal-fired
power plants that are under development. This report may not representall possible plants under consideration but is intended to illustrate thepotential that exists for installation of new coal-fired power plants.Additional perspective has been added for non-coal-fired generationadditions in the U.S. and coal-fired power plant activity in China.
Experience has shown that public announcements of power plantdevelopments do not provide an accurate representation of eventuallycommissioned power plants. Actual plant capacity commissioned hashistorically been significantly less then new capacity announced.
The report focuses on those coal-fired power plant projects that haveachieved significant progress toward completion, to provide a more
accurate assessment of the ability of this segment of the power generationindustry to support demand for new electricity capacity in various regionsof the United States.
The Department of Energy does not warrant the accuracy orsuitability of this information.
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Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants
This report provides a perspective of coal-fired power plants thatare currently under development, with a focus on those havingmade significant progress toward achieving commercialoperation
The status of projects identified varies from projectannouncements to those under construction
Announced projects are not necessarily strong indicators ofcommitment of capital and human resources to actualdevelopment and follow-through to actual capacity additions ishighly dependent on the market environment
Plants that are permitted or under construction (ProgressingProjects) reflect a more significant financial and human resourcecommitment to completion and offer a better perspective of thenew generation capacity that may be forthcoming
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Past Capacity Announcements vs. ActualFigure 1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1820
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Capacity
(GW)
Actual 2002 Report 2005 Report 2007 Report 2012 Report
Delays in Implementation
Actual capacity completed has been shown to be significantly less than proposed capacity;the 2002 report listed 11,455 MW of proposed capacity for the year 2005 when only 329 MW were constructed.
Source: 2007 & 2012 data Ventyx Velocity Suite2002 2005 data Previous NETL Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants Reports
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1820
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Capacity
(GW)
Actual 2012 2010 2009 2008
64 GW32 GW28 GW 49 GW16 GW
Latest Capacity Announcements vs. ActualFigure 1a
Totals
Total Identified Capacity Declines Due to Commissioning, Cancelations, and Fewer Postponements
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite2012 data 1/13/2012
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Current Coal-Fired Capacity Projects (Annual Change)Table 1
Status Listing Description
Under Construction Project is under construction.
Near Construction Project has been approved; majority or all permits are obtained. Sponsor is contracting vendors and Engineering,Procurement and Construction (EPC) contractors. Site preparation has begun.
Permitted In the permitting phase. Two or more permits approved or fuel or power contracts have been negotiated.
Announced Early stages of development to filing for permits. May include a feasibility study.
ProgressingProjects
UncertainPotential and
Timing
Source: Ventyx Velocity SuiteData reflects change between 12/13/2010 and 1/13/2012
Number of Plants Capacity (MW)
General Status Dec2010
Jan
2012Net
ChangeDec
2010
Jan
2012Net
Change
Under Construction 12 10 -2 7,619 6,519 -1,100
Near Construction 1 1 0 320 320 0
Permitted 8 13 5 6,446 8,934 2,488
SUB TOTAL 21 24 3 14,385 15,773 1,388
Announced (early stages ofdevelopment) 36 24 -12 17,385 11,871 -5,514
TOTAL 57 48 -9 32,259 27,644 -4,615
Commissioned this Period - 5 5 - 2,343 2,343
TOTAL December 2011
Progressing and Commissioned53 -4 29,987 -2,272
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Current Capacity Additions by YearsRefer to Table 1
Table 1 reflects the current status of coal-fired plant development activity as ofJanuary 13, 2012 and shows the nominal annual change (December 13, 2010 through
January 13, 2012)
Progressing plants represent projects with status indicating permitted,
near construction, or under construction
Progressing plants have attained a higher likelihood of advancing toward
commercial operation; however, regulatory uncertainty, market perception and
industry cost increases continue to impact development decisions for all projects
2,343 MW (6 units at 5 plants) have become operational during 2011 & Jan 2012
There has been a net increase of 1,388 MW (+10%) of total Progressing and/or
Commissionedprojects through 2011 over Progressingprojects in January
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Current Coal Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 2
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Capacity(GW)
Announced
Permitted
Near Construction
Under Construction
Actual
Commissionedin 2011 & Jan 2012 Dry Fork (390 MW) Oak Creek (615 MW) Point Comfort (310 MW) Whelan (220 MW) Longview (808 MW)
Operational Dates
ProposedActual
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Currently Proposed and ForecastedCoal-Fired Capacity
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Capacity(GW)
Proposed-Progressing Proposed-Announced EIA AEO 2011
Virtually No New Coal inReference case Following
Several CCS Demos
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)
EIA AEO 2011, Reference Case
Figure 3
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Last 50 Years of New Coal Capacity
0
24
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
GWsofNewCapacity
Largest Build Since 1985
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)
Figure 4
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Net Capacity Changes (Removed and Added Opportunities)
-2
-1
0
1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2017
Capacity
(GW)
Proposed Online Year
Under Construction Near Construction Permitted Announced Added Announcements
Capacity Change Breakdown
2,343 MW operational now removedfrom the list
2,890 MW canceled
1,325 MW permitted canceled
1,565 MW announcementscanceled
Removed Capacity
32%of MWs removed represent Announced projects48% of MWs removed due to Commissioned plants
R
emovedCapacity
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (12/13/2010 and 12/13/2012)
Total Net Reductions (less operating) -2,272 MW
Figure 5
Commissionedin Dec 2010 - Jan 2012 Dry Fork (390 MW) Oak Creek (615 MW) Point Comfort (310 MW) Whelan (220 MW) Longview (808 MW)
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Technology
ListingsOperational(Since 2000)
Progressing(Permitted, Near-, and Under
Construction)
Announced TotalProposed
December
2010
Jan 2012
(Change)
December
2010
Jan 2012
(Change)
December
2010
Jan 2012
(Change)
PC Subcritical 31 5 4 (-1) 10 7 (-3) 15 11 (-4)
CFB 12 4 6 (-2) 9 4 (-5) 13 10 (-3)
PC Supercritical 7 7 7 (0) 4 2 (-2) 11 9 (-2)
IGCC 1 5 7 (2) 13 11 (-2) 18 18 (0)
Source: Ventyx Velocity SuiteData collected (12/13/2010); Current Report data collected (1/13/2012)
Proposed Technologies of New Plants(with Annual change)
Figure 6
Table 2
0
10
20
4 67 7
7 4 2
11
NumberofPlan
ts
Announced
Progressing
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Geographical location by State: Coal-Fired Plants(Permitted, Near Construction, and Under Construction)
Figure 7
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)
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Location by NERC Regions: Coal-Fired Plants(Permitted, Near Construction, and Under Construction)
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)
Figure 8
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Specified Coal RanksAll Proposed Plants
Figure 9
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
ProposedPlantCapacities(MW)
16,790 MW Generic Coalnot shown on chart
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8090
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Capacity(GW)
Coal-Fired Build RateChina and United States
Figure 10
Source: USA data - Ventyx Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)
China data Platts - UDI WEPPDB December 2011
Online Year
Results are Stacked
273 GW ofUndetermined Dates
of Chinese Plants
Planned no date(evenly distributedover 4 years)
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Coal-Fired Power Plants Retirements
Recently announced retirements of currently operating
coal-fired power plants with retirement date from 2012 -2020
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Current Coal Capacity Additions/Retirements by YearsFigure 2a
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Capacity(GW)
Announced
Permitted
Near Construction
Under Construction
Actual Constructed
Proposed Retirements
Retired
Operational Dates (above) / Retirement Dates (below)
ProposedActual
24.7 GW of specificannounced plant retirements(does not include general companyannounced retirements that do notinclude a specific unit)
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Announced Coal-Fired Retirements(2012 2020)
Total retirement capacity at the plant level
24.7 GW of specificannounced plant
retirements
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0
20
40
60
80
100
0 200 400 600 800
CapacityFactor(%)
Size (MW)
Capacity Factor vs. Size
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80
CapacityFactor(%)
Age (Years)
Capacity Factor vs. Age
Parameter Value Trend Observed
Average Capacity Factor 45.6% Lower capacity factors
Average size (MW) 191 MW Units under 200 MW in sizeAverage Age of Units 54 Yeas Older units being retired
% of units with No SO2 Control 84% Units with out SO2 controls
% of units with Planned SO2 Control 6% Units that did not have plans to install SO2controls
Announced Coal-Fired Retirements24.7 GW
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0
20
40
60
80
100
0 500 1000 1500
CapacityFactor(%)
Size (MW)
Capacity Factor vs. Size
Remaining Announced Retirements
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
CapacityFactor(%)
Age (Years)
Capacity Factor vs. Age
Remaining Announced Retirements
Operating Coal-Fired FleetAnnounced Retirements & Remaining Units
Announced Retirements:24.7 GW
Remaining Plants: ~300 GW
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Other Generation Development Activity
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Proposed U.S. New CapacityCoal, Natural Gas, Wind, and Nuclear
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
ProposedNameplateCapacity(GW)
Coal NG Wind Nuclear
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite 1/13/2012
Figure 12
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Status of Proposed New U.S. CapacityCoal, Natural Gas, Wind, and Nuclear
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Coal
NG
Wind
Nuc
Coal
NG
Wind
Nuc
Coal
NG
Wind
Nuc
Coal
NG
Wind
Nuc
Coal
NG
Wind
Nuc
Coal
NG
Wind
Nuc
Coal
NG
Wind
Nuc
Coal
NG
Wind
Nuc
Coal
NG
Wind
Nuc
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ProposedNameplateCapacity(GW)
Under Construction Near Construction Permitted Announced
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite 1/13/2012
Figure 13
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Current Wind Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Capacity(GW)
Announced
Permitted
Near Construction
Under Construction
Actual
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)
Operational Dates
ProposedActual
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Current NGCC Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Capacity(GW)
Announced
Permitted
Near Construction
Under Construction
Actual
ProposedActual
Operational Dates
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)
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Current NG-GT Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 16
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Capacity(GW)
Announced
Permitted
Near Construction
Under Construction
Actual
ProposedActual
Operational Dates
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)
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Current Nuclear Capacity Additions by YearsFigure 17
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Capacity(GW)
Announced
Permitted
Near Construction
Under Construction
Actual
ProposedActual
Watts Bar Unit 2Construction begun in the 1970s,suspended in 1988 at 80% complete,currently revived with completion
due 2012.
Operational Dates
Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)
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U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plant Summary Year 201112/13/2010 1/13/2012
Five new coal-plants totaling 2,343 MW were Commissionedin2011
Progressing/Commissionedprojects by January 2012 have had anet increase of 3 plants; a net change in capacity of 1,388 MW
(+10%) over Progressingprojects 1,599 MW of new capacity has been Announcedand
2,890 MW have been canceled
Of 2,890 MW canceled plants, 54% were Announcedphase and 46% wereProgressing
Compared to previous years, fewer projects are being Announcedto offset recent Commissioning
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