Week Ending 8th November 2015
1
NEFS Research Division Presents:
The Weekly Market
Wrap-Up
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
2
Contents Macro Review 3 United Kingdom
United States Eurozone
Japan Australia & New Zealand
Canada
Emerging Markets
10
India China
Russia and Eastern Europe Latin America
Africa South East Asia
Equities
16
Retail Oil & Gas
Financials Technology
Pharmaceuticals Industrials & Basic Materials
Commodities
Energy Precious Metals
Agriculturals
22
Currencies 25
EUR, USD, GBP AUD, JPY & Other Asian
Week Ending 8th November 2015
3
THE WEEK IN BRIEF
Interest rates
Despite learning that GDP growth fell to 1.9% in
the US last week, the Federal Reserve
signalled that there is a real possibility of an
increase in the base interest rate in the near
future, as the underlying strength of the
economy appears to be growing. Meanwhile,
Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England,
surprised many by eluding that UK interest
rates could be raised earlier than many have
been forecasting; markets have now priced in
that rates could rise in the second half of 2016
rather than 2017. This came in spite of the
BoE’s downward revision of inflation forecasts
for 2016 and 2017, with inflation still remaining
well below the BoE’s 2% target. However, this
week we also learned that the Eurozone’s
growth forecasts have been revised down for
each of the next two years; monetary easing
seems to be approaching, and the prospect of
interest rate hikes there seems a long way off.
Strengthening
Dollar
The US dollar has continued to appreciate this
week, hitting a three month high on Friday
following the non-farm payrolls report, with the
EUR/USD being driven closer to parity. As a
result, the price of commodities (which are
traded in USD) have fallen on the week. Already
very low oil prices posted their third weekly
decline in four weeks, falling for three days in a
row over the week, while the price of gold hit a
seven week low. The price is being pushed
down further by the belief that a US rate hike
could be approaching, as this would reduce
demand for gold as the rate of return from
saving increases.
TPP Made Public
This week the terms of the Trans-Pacific
Partnership were released to the public for the
first time, bringing together the US with a
number of Pacific Rim countries. Covering 40%
of the global economy, the agreement is the
largest regional trade deal in history. The
Partnership is focused at reducing barriers to
trade between members, such as tariffs, quotas
and “red tape”, as well as harmonising
regulations. It is hoped to instigate increased
trade between those signed up, bringing
efficiency benefits and increased economic
growth. It is clear that it will take time for the
terms of the deal to be fully implemented, but if
they can be, the scope for benefits is huge.
Jack Millar
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
4
MACROREVIEW
United Kingdom
This week’s headline regards the release of the
Bank of England’s (BoE) quarterly inflation
report. The report presents inflation projections
and analysis, on which the monetary policy
committee bases its interest rate decisions.
CPI inflation in September fell to -0.1%, well
below the BoE 2% inflation target. The BoE is
unlikely to meet its target until the end of 2017
and the lower bound of 1% not before the
second half of 2016, illustrated below. However
the BoE estimates that around four fifths of the
deviation is attributed to negative contributions
from energy and food prices. These are subject
to greater short term volatility and therefore do
not represent a long term deflationary trend;
only one fifth of deviation is due to subdued
demand cost growth. In fact the current zero
inflation is regarded as an economic stimulus,
which, coupled with real wage growth is set to
boost consumer spending. With a weaker
global economic outlook, brought about by a
slowdown of many emerging economies like
China on export orders, robust domestic
household and corporate spending is needed.
As a result the report has made no plans for an
upcoming base rate rise, suggesting it will
remain at 0.5% well into 2016.
However, encouraging domestic consumption
does have potential negative consequences. In
particular uncontrollable credit and house price
growth. Indeed the BoE is considering using
measures to rein in credit, as it has the power
to raise capital requirements for bank lending.
While household debt to income has declined
since the financial crash recent high lending
trends could reverse this.
This week also saw the release of the
Purchasing Managers’ Indices for services and
manufacturing. The PMI are an indicator of
economic activity, derived from monthly
surveys of businesses, and therefore are a
good measure of current economic
performance. The services PMI rose to 54.9
and manufacturing posting a surprising 55.5,
where a figure above 50 signalling growth.
Manufacturing figures posted well above
expectations, suggesting that the sector may be
in better health than previously thought.
All in all, with manufacturing and exports
currently struggling due to weak demand from
developing nations and a strong pound,
domestic consumption must be reinforced to
drive economic growth. As a result, households
and businesses need a prolonged period of
stability and the continuity of the present low
base rate provides this.
Matteo Graziosi
Week Ending 8th November 2015
5
United States
Ms Janet Yellen gave an indication that the
Federal Reserve’s December 15-16 meeting
would be a “live possibility” for a rate rise.
Diminished downside risks from global
economic and financial developments and
significant labour market tightening since the
start of the year prompted the remark.
Hiring in the US reached its highest level this
year. According to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, nonfarm payrolls rose by a
seasonally adjusted 271,000 compared to
forecasts of just 181,000. This also beat last
month’s figures of 137,000, bringing the
monthly average over the last three months to
187,000. Nonfarm payrolls measure the change
in the number of employed people during the
previous month, excluding the farming industry.
On a similar note, the unemployment rate
matched estimates and fell slightly to 5.0% in
October from 5.1% in the previous month. It is
now at its lowest level since April 2008 and is
closer to Fed officials’ 4.9% median projection
for its normal long-run level. Average hourly
earnings in the private sector rose last month
by 9 cents to $25.20 from October. Wages are
now up 2.5% over the year and this is higher
than the 2% average pace during the six-year
expansion. Overall, this week’s encouraging
labour data should be more than sufficient for
the Fed to consider a rate rise at its next
meeting, as it tries to boost inflation levels to
meet its 2% target.
The US Trade Balance, the difference in the
value of imports and exports of goods and
services, went up by $7.2 billion to a $40.8
billion deficit, beating a forecast of a $42.7
billion deficit. Broken down, imports fell by $4.2
billion to $228.7 billion, while exports rose $3
billion to $187.9 billion. Given the sharp rise in
the US dollar over the year, we should expect
the deficit gap to widen in the near future, as US
exports become more expensive, dragging
modestly on US GDP growth.
On Thursday, we got a look at the text of the
Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. Tariffs on
everything will be lowered or eliminated and
40% of the global economy will be open to
easier trade in services and electronic
commerce. The agreement also sets
international rules in areas such as the
intellectual property of advanced
pharmaceuticals and arbitration that lets
investors challenge foreign governments.
Rather interestingly, the agreement makes no
explicit mention of one of the hottest phrases –
‘climate change’.
Sai Ming Liew
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
6
Eurozone
In its autumn forecast the European
commission has downgraded its prediction on
the growth level of the 19 nations of the
Eurozone. In May, it was forecast that growth in
2016 in the Euro area would be 1.9%, while it is
now predicted that the Euro area will grow by
1.8% in this time period. In 2015 the growth of
the Euro area is expected to be 1.6% and in
2017 the European commission is expecting
the growth rate to be 1.9%. It is also expected
that inflation will increase from 0.1% currently to
1.6% in 2017; the cost of living for Eurozone
citizens is predicted to rise at an increased rate.
The European commission stated that the
weaker Euro, challenging global market
conditions and a slowdown in major emerging
economies has played a role in the reduction of
the growth forecast. The Vice President of the
European Commission, Valdis Dombrovskis,
did say in a statement that “Today’s economic
forecast shows the euro-area economy
continuing its moderate recovery,”
A challenge for the economic performance of
the countries in the Euro area in the immediate
future is the level of uncertainty. There are risks
associated with the slowdown in emerging
markets on trade with the Euro area. China for
example is one of the biggest trading partners
of the Euro area and it has recently experienced
a greater than expected slowdown in its
economic performance. The report also states
that some of the uncertainty has been caused
by US monetary policy.
In a different report released this week by
Destatis, production levels in Germany, the
Euro area’s largest economy, declined In
September. Industrial production fell by 1.1% in
comparison to August 2015, as shown on the
graph below. This is the biggest fall in industrial
production in Germany since August 2014,
which was due to a fall in production in all
sectors of the Germany economy except the
energy sector. Once again one of the reasons
given for the fall in production was a slowdown
in emerging economies. The German economy
ministry stated "After a good development in the
first half, German industry is currently
experiencing a light headwind from the world
economy, in particular due to a slowdown in
some large emerging markets”. With the
Eurozone continuing to be afflicted by global
uncertainty, it seems likely that it will take longer
than expected for the economy to make a full
recovery.
Kelly Wiles
Week Ending 8th November 2015
7
Japan
On Wednesday Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
called on his ministers to create a new set of
economic stimulus measures within the month.
The fresh stimulus measures will aim to achieve
targets such as the gross domestic product goal
the PM announced in September – to raise
nominal GDP to ¥600 trillion in five years. To
achieve this Mr Abe has called on the business
community to “actively engage in capital
investment and wage increases,” and added
that the government will support firms to do so.
These new stimulus measures will aim to
bolster the credibility of the “Abenomics”
programme that got the current PM re-elected
in 2012. Abenomics consists of three “arrows”
which includes loose monetary policy,
expansionary fiscal policy and structural
reforms. Thus far the government has been
overly reliant on quantitative and qualitative
easing (QQE), fiscal policy has been modest,
and structural reforms are considered to be the
“missing arrow”.
The latest consumer confidence data indicates
an increase on the previous month from 41.1 to
41.5. However, this measure which surveys
around 5,000 households has not made
significant progress since the inception of
Abenomics. The graph below shows how,
despite a strong recovery in consumer
confidence during 2013, respondents think
Japan’s economic conditions have improved
only marginally since the PM’s re-election. This
builds a growing case for Abe’s government to
shift importance to structural reforms.
With the returns to QQE seeing diminishing
returns, like most QE programmes worldwide,
structural reforms have the potential be a
significant driver of Japan’s economy in the
long run. Since 2012 Mr Abe has made some
progress in areas such as agriculture by limiting
the power of special interest groups, moving
towards the liberalisation of the energy market
and increasing female participation in the
labour force. However, reforms for more
politically sensitive areas such as immigration
have been ignored.
Foreign workers currently only account for 0.3%
of the labour force, the lowest figure across any
OECD country. Reforms to relax immigration
could help eliminate Japan’s chronic labour
shortage and provide an instant boost to
growth. The scope for further labour market
reforms – which could raise productivity and
real wages in Japan – remains significant and
largely unaddressed.
Loy Chen
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
8
Australia & New
Zealand
After enjoying trade surpluses in 2010 and
2011, Australia recorded its 16th consecutive
monthly balance of payments deficit. As
illustrated in the graph below, the deficit has
marginally improved by 15%, falling from 3.10
billion to 2.32 billion, a much better result than
predicted by economists.
What caused this improvement? The value of
exports rose by 3% owing to a rise in non-
monetary gold by 10%. This was aided by the
stabilisation of iron ore prices along with the
depreciation of the Australian dollar,
contributing to a surge in iron ore exports by
7.9%. However imports continued to remain
strong, rising by 3% as consumption goods also
rose by 3%.
National Australia Banks’ (NAB) Tapis
Strickland believes the deficit may fall further as
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) projects began in
Queensland in October and are due to start
elsewhere, therefore boosting exports further.
However, such sentiments are not shared. JP
Morgan’s economist Tom Kennedy believes
that “the pick-up in nominal export growth” is
unlikely to continue as it was “owed entirely to
a surge in non-monetary gold shipments”, an
unreliable indicator for continued
improvements.
Could these figures have a larger impact?
Strickland believes that the improvement in the
trade balance may make significant
contributions to economic growth, expecting a
0.6 percent improvement in the September
quarter.
In other news, New Zealand’s labour market
appeared to be keeping up with population
growth until recently. Unemployment rates
reached 6 percent, a 0.1% rise since August
and a 0.4% rise over the past year. Figures
have shown that the number of people
employed dropped by 11,000 in three months,
however economists previously expected that
10,000 jobs had been added during the
September quarter. Unemployment remains
higher in the South Island, which experienced a
1% rise, compared to the North Island, which
saw a 0.3% rise, however this gap is narrowing.
Despite the creation of jobs in the economy
over the past year, the growth of the workforce
has exceeded any potential for this to improve
employment rates. The fall in employment is
mainly due to the 4.1% drop in part time jobs,
however, record high migration (net gain by
around 60,000 in August) has meant the
number of those unemployed has risen by
10.5% in 12 months.
Meera Jadeja
Week Ending 8th November 2015
9
Canada
There was some encouraging news for Canada
this week, as figures from October’s Labour
Force Survey beat economists’ expectations
four-fold. After four months of little change,
44,400 jobs were created in October, compared
to the 10,000 increase that economists
forecasted. As shown in the chart below, this
led to the unemployment rate falling from 7.1%
in September to 7.0% in October, as
employment is up by 143,000 compared to
October 2014. Youth unemployment also fell
from 13.5% in September to 13.3% in October.
Canada is not currently performing at its
economic potential, so these are welcome
figures from Statistics Canada - however, the
headline news is not as reassuring as it seems,
owing to three main reasons.
The public administration sector accounted for
72% of the new jobs, but these are temporary
jobs for the federal election, so is not a lasting
boost to the economy. In fact, this should have
been expected; past trends show similar spikes
in employment during election and consensus
periods.
Secondly, 80% of the new jobs are for part time
work. This could imply slack (excess capacity)
in the labour market. Stephen Poloz, the
Governor of the Bank of Canada, has
previously stated that inflation, which is at 1.0%,
may only reach the 2% target in mid-2017 due
to slack in the economy. Regardless, there has
been an increase of 9,000 full time jobs which
is a positive step.
Thirdly, unemployment in the resource industry
has steepened, due to ongoing effects of the fall
in the oil price. 26,000 job losses have occurred
in the resource industry over the last 12 months,
many of which have been geographically
concentrated in the province of Alberta.
In other news, Scotiabank have predicted that
the Canadian dollar will continue to depreciate
for at least the next year. Downward pressure
on the currency is due to a distressed energy
sector along with a GDP rate of 0.1%, making
Canada less attractive to invest in. Additionally,
the prospect of a rate rise by the Federal
Reserve in December makes nearby US a
more attractive place for investment, in
comparison to Canada where a rate cut would
seem more likely than an increase. This is
already being evidenced as the US dollar
increased by more than 1% as traders predict a
72% likelihood that US rates will rise next
month.
Shamima Manzoor
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
10
EMERGING MARKETS
China
In the face of recently rising market rates,
China’s Securities Regulatory Commission
stated this week that IPOs would be restarted
after they had been suspended in July as a part
of a rescue package to stabilize the stock
markets. On Friday the Shanghai Index closed
up on the highest level since midst of August.
"The new shares won't be issued immediately
and the amount of fund used for new shares will
be relatively small. Investor confidence has
recovered and they may interpret this as a sign
of market stabilisation," said Mr Jiahe, an
analyst of Cinda securities.
Furthermore, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for
the last month has been published. It rose to
48.3 in October from 47.2 in September and,
thereby, exceeded the forecast which has been
47.7. This index measures the nationwide
manufacturing activity. It's a leading indicator of
economic health - businesses react quickly to
market conditions, and their purchasing
managers hold perhaps the most current and
relevant insight into the company's view of the
economy. Thereby, a reading below 50
indicates a contraction in manufacturing
activity, while a level above 50 indicates an
expansion. Hence, the reading suggests the
shrinkage in manufacturing activity, marking the
eighth straight month of contraction, as the
graph below shows.
"The slight upswing shows the manufacturing
industry's overall weakening has slowed down,
indicating that previous stimulating measures
have begun to take effect," said He Fan, chief
economist at Caixin Insight Group.
Besides, the Caixin Services PMI was also
published this week. The index rose to 52.0 in
October, up from September's 14-month low of
50.5 while it also succeeded the forecast of
51.0. China's service sector has been one of
the few bright spots in the economy, helping to
offset a sharp slowdown in traditional industries
battling idle capacity and weakening demand.
In the first three quarters of 2015, services
accounted for 51.4% of gross domestic
economy, up from 49.1% in the year-earlier
period.
Additionally, since the actual indices exceeded
the expectations this could be considered as
good signal for the Chinese currency, as well,
as it indicates that China is recovering from its
recent economic struggles.
Alexander Baxmann
Week Ending 8th November 2015
11
India
Despite the world’s optimistic outlook for India
and its economy, inequality in different forms
still persists on a large scale within the country,
hindering development and economic growth.
We often forget that a predicted growth rate of
7.5% and a steadily decreasing unemployment
rate are not all-encompassing and that the rapid
growth that India has seen in the past decade
has sadly not led to substantial improvements
in gender equality on a scale that it perhaps
should have.
Female labour participation in India has not
increased in recent years despite the country
cementing itself as the fastest growing
economy in the world. A new report now
suggests that the way to maintain this status is
by pushing for gender equality, which could add
$700 billion to the economy by 2025. The
female labour force participation rate in India
currently stands at a disappointing 31%, but by
raising this to 41% by 2025, GDP growth could
see an incremental boost of 1.4% per year.
At 17%, the female contribution to GDP in India
is much lower than the global average of 37%
and when compared to other nations such as
China and Sub Saharan Africa, where women
account for 41% and 39% of GDP respectively,
the figure is embarrassing. The report states
that the Indian economy would receive the
highest relative boost among all regions of the
world if its women participated in paid work on
a similar basis to men. The extensive gap
between the male and female participation rate
is illustrated below, highlighting that the gap is
much greater in India than in other economies.
The research also highlighted the unequal sharing of household responsibilities between men and women in India. Women perform 10 times the amount of unpaid care work than men and if this unpaid work could be valued and compensated, it would contribute $0.3 trillion to India's economic output. If the government wants to unlock the vast
untapped potential that lies within the female
population of India, it must help expand skills
training in key sectors and provide greater
access to financial services, along with getting
more girls into primary and secondary
education. Ultimately, the country must address
deep rooted patriarchal attitudes, both at home
and in the workplace.
Homairah Ginwalla
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
12
Russia and Eastern
Europe
Following news this week that Russia may face
a meat and dairy shortage in 2016, the Western
view of the Russian economy is one of a stark
nature. In addition, Dr Birgit Hansl – lead Russia
economist for the World Bank – shared her
macro outlook, and the findings are somewhat
more hopeful than one might think.
Often forgotten is the import embargo Putin
ordered in retaliation to the Western sanctions,
just over a year ago. A government report
shows that the embargoes have made a
disproportionately large contribution to the
general decline in trade, resulting in a 38.8%
decrease in imports and, subsequently, a
blatant hole in the market. Unprepared
producers failed to fill this gap in the short term,
leading to a rapid increase in domestic prices,
which contributed to the already present
inflationary pressures. Only now have Audit
Leaders hinted at a possible shortage in
essential foodstuffs in 2016, alongside
estimations that 80% of cheese in
supermarkets is counterfeit.
Birgit Hansl identifies the 2014 trade shock as
a significant contributor to economic troubles in
Russia and the addressing of the high inflation
rate through a shrewd budget policy as a matter
of high importance. The World Bank estimates
Russia’s recession will continue, with -3.8%
growth forecast for this year and -0.6% for 2016
– a dire outlook in itself – but even worse when
combined with the predicted climb of 14% in the
rate of poverty - the greatest increase since
1998/99. This carries knock-on effects for the
Russian middle classes who are already
bearing the brunt of high inflation rates as they
see their real wages and savings eroded.
Conversely, the private sector is benefiting from
the economic disarray, heeding Putin’s advice
and making use of the exchange rate
uncertainty by paying off foreign debts (see
graph below) and loading up on foreign assets.
With this comes an increase in capital flight –
just this week Alexander Grigoryev (a high level
banker) was arrested for illegally moving $50
billion out of the country over the last 3 years.
This economic slowdown is an opportunity to
address structural faults such as reliance on
natural resources and an ageing population.
What is more important in the short term,
however, is making clear the economic policies
the country is to pursue. This week, Rosstat
surveys showed that “uncertainty about
economic policy” has become a key constraint
mentioned by Russian businesses.
This recession is not a time to repent, but to
restructure.
Tom Dooner
Week Ending 8th November 2015
13
Latin America
Brazil reported a USD 1.996 billion trade
surplus in October of 2015, compared to a USD
1.1 billion gap a year earlier, higher than market
forecasts. It is the eight straight month of
surplus as imports fell more than exports.
Although it beat expectations, these results
aren’t surprising considering September’s
figures on Brazil’s Trade Surplus were at a
three month high. In fact, for the first nine
months of the year, the country has posted a
surplus of USD 12.24 billion.
A major contributing factor is that over the past
year the Real has lost circa 50% and 30% on
the dollar and euro respectively, so something
would be very wrong with Brazil’s economy if
they were not now trading in a surplus
considering the Eurozone and US are key
trading partners for Brazil. In the past Brazil ran
regular trade surpluses, primarily due to high
export of mining and agricultural products. In
2013, the country started recording trade
deficits and in 2014 registered their first annual
trade deficit since 2000 as a decline in the value
of commodities exports had a greater effect
than the fall in imports of consumption products.
So perhaps Brazil is on the road to recovery.
However this seems unlikely due to other
economic indicators looking bleak for the
country. GDP in Brazil contracted 2.60% in the
second quarter of 2015, year on year, worse
than market expectations. Brazil is struggling
through this current recession which has seen
five straight quarters of contraction and a
reduction in GDP of 6.2 percentage points.
There’s no single reason why the economy has
nosedived, but comes from a confluence of
factors. Individually many of these reasons
would have caused minor blips in the economic
performance of a country, however when
pooled together their effects are multiplied.
Such factors include; dire performance of the
Real, poor consumer confidence and
subsequently low personal consumption,
political crisis and a credit rating that in August
was rated at near junk by Moody’s.
It is very difficult to predict the future
movements of Brazil’s economy especially
when so many factors are determining it,
however one indicator may be certain, as the
government expects the trade surplus to reach
USD 15 billion this year and to widen to USD 25
billion in 2016, as a weak Real could be here to
stay.
Max Brewer
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
14
Africa
Another African debt crisis is looking likely
again, as announced on Wednesday. Falling
commodity prices and a slowing Chinese
economy have once again led to unsustainable
borrowing, hence increasing Africa’s sovereign
debt to around 44% of GDP. Economists fear
that if this continues and risk of default
increases, lending interest rates will be
increased to levels that are unaffordable for
most African countries, consequently halting
development. It will also put a strain on the
social spending budget, thus restricting
services for the public and causing social
unrest. Whilst one solution would be increasing
inflation across the continent, as the debt’s
value would decrease relative to the currency’s
value, this would erode away the wages and
savings of civilians, thereby reducing
consumption. This solution would also require
augmented Government spending, which
would increase the debt further.
In Algeria, over-reliance on oil exports and
falling oil prices has meant the country is
reforming its market in order to avoid
bankruptcy. Oil exports formerly provided 60%
of revenues, hence there is now a great
pressure on spending and the trade deficit,
which has ballooned from $4.09bn to $10.33bn.
Subsequently Algeria is investing heavily in its
industries and local businesses, whilst also
introducing import licenses and custom duties
on imported goods. Whilst trade protection is
not ideal, it is necessary if Algeria wishes to
protect its infant industries. It will inevitably
increase prices and lower standards of living,
however by increasing efficiency in the long-
term, it is hoped that wages and employment
will increase, whilst costs fall. Red tape, state
control of businesses and business taxes are
also going to be reduced, consequently making
the economy more attractive for commerce.
With Zambia’s rate of inflation soaring from
7.7% to 14.3% in under a month (see graph),
interest rates have increased even further from
12.5% to 15.5%. The high inflation rate is due
to the falling price of copper, thus halving the
value of Zambia’s kwacha against the dollar.
Accordingly, exports have increased, leading to
demand-pull inflation. Severely high rates of
inflation are bad for an economy, with the
greatest danger being a wage spiral, brought
about by the expectation of prices continuing to
rise. Fortunately as goods get more expensive,
trade becomes uncompetitive, leading to an
eventual decline in exports and disinflation.
However to end the inflation promptly, Zambia’s
interest rate has been increased in order to curb
spending and encourage saving.
Charlotte Alder
Week Ending 8th November 2015
15
South East Asia
After 5 years of negotiating with some of the
biggest economies in the world such as Japan
and the USA, many of South East Asia’s
economies, including Indonesia, Singapore and
rapidly growing Vietnam, are finally ready to
reap the rewards of joining the Trans-Pacific
Partnership. With a month gone after
successful negotiations, all 12 participating
countries, one also being Malaysia, released
the agreement of more than a thousand pages
of detail, which is no surprise considering this
trade deal will have countries representing 40%
of the global economy. This makes it the largest
regional trade agreement in history.
The deal will reduce trade barriers on
everything from beef to textiles, with new and
bright ideas for environmental protection and
ambitious ideas of state-owned enterprises
competing with private companies in trade and
investment. It is estimated that joining the TPP
would boost Vietnam’s economy by more than
a fifth of its 2014 GDP if the membership
reaches 17 countries by 2025, shown in the
chart below. This would be huge for one of the
fastest developing economies and a hotspot for
foreign direct investment.
However, the TPP has come under a fair
amount of criticism, not being progressive
enough to win over the critics, even after
Obama’s prediction of removing tariffs of more
than 18,000 goods. The TPP will have long-
winded, incremental and slow benefits on
economic growth, unemployment and their
balance of payments position. For example,
mentioned in Vietnam’s appendix in the
agreement text, it will take 21 years before they
have fully eliminated their quota on imported
unmanufactured tobacco, which will have an
effect on its neighbour countries such as
Malaysia and Singapore. This is worrying,
particularly for countries such as Singapore,
whose GDP for this quarter was 0.1%, narrowly
avoiding recession.
With participating countries representing 40%
of the global economy, this trade deal seems to
worth the wait in the long-term, especially with
hints that South Korea and even China may join
in the future. With the El Nino Phenomenon
spiking food prices this week, it remains to be
seen whether Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore
and Vietnam can survive the economic
challenges ahead for the next decade.
Alex Lam
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
16
EQUITIES
Retail
The retail sector has remained relatively flat this
week, with the Dow Jones Consumer Index
exhibiting a mere 1% fall, however a number of
firms’ share prices have exhibited considerable
fluctuations, and it is these equities which could
potentially be strong indications as to the future
of the sector.
One of these stocks is Stamps.com, a
NASDAQ listed company with revenues of just
under $200 million per annum. Stamps soared
by more than 35% in a single day, driven largely
by third quarter results which vastly outstripped
analyst predictions, with the online retailer not
only improving its revenues relative to Q3 2014,
but also augmenting it’s EBIT and EPS. Stamps
is interesting and revealing with regards to the
future of retail equities for a plethora of reasons.
As the name alludes, Stamps.com is an online
retailer, a sector which has shown 15% year on
year growth since 2001, and which is
responsible for an even greater share of retail
growth within the US economy, for example.
However, this is not the most interesting or
revealing aspect of Stamps’ business model,
for Stamps is one of many relatively young
online retailers which aim to shift traditional
brick and mortar business models to the online
arena. In Stamps’ case, this is postage, with
individuals and businesses alike now being
afforded the ability to print United States Postal
Service (USPS) labels with merely a home
printer, giving a vast array of time and cost
benefits relative to the traditional post office
model of sending mail. It is perhaps these
benefits which have resulted in Stamps’
remarkable growth since its 1996 inception, and
which are responsible for the company’s
unprecedented 135% share price increase
since the start of 2015. In much the same vein,
several other retail equities have also
attempted to transfer traditional business into
the online realm, and have also demonstrated
strong growth or prospects this week, with
Amazon rebounding from its October
difficulties.
As aforementioned, however, retail equities as
a whole have remained relatively flat this
month, with a lack of strong yet pertinent
information giving a resultant lack of fluctuation.
Only time will tell whether consumer spending
can increase enough to breathe life into a flat
lined sector.
Jack Blake
Week Ending 8th November 2015
17
Oil and Gas
This week, oil prices turned lower on Friday due
to the stronger-than-expected US October jobs
growth, leading to expectations of an interest
rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December.
“The prospect of higher interest rates will propel
the U.S. dollar higher, providing headwinds for
a crude rally: hence, as the U.S. dollar rips
higher after the surprisingly strong
unemployment report, crude is sinking once
more” said Matt Smith, a commodity analyst at
ClipperData. Following news, Crude (CLZ5:
NYMEX) traded at $44.29 a barrel, down 91
cents or 2%, while Brent crude (LCOZ5:ICE
EU) lost 64 cents, or 1.3%, to $47.34.
I talked about ExxonMobil (XOM: NYSE) as one
of the few winners as far as energy stocks went
last week, but this week the company has been
investigated by the New York state attorney-
general in relation to whether it misled investors
and the public about climate change risks and
how it could affect the company. The subpoena
issued on Wednesday has already affected its
stock value, which fell by $1.16, or 1.38%, to
$83.65 as of Friday, as highlighted by the graph
below.
Having digested third quarter earnings from
companies such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell and
Total, analysts at Energy Aspects estimate
megaprojects expected to produce 5.2m
barrels a day of oil between 2016 and 2019
have either been postponed or delayed. 60 is
the magic number in the oil sector right now:
this number has been circulating the news and
reports all over in the past few weeks. But what
does it stand for? $60 is the price at which crude
oil will be in the next 2 years, at least according
to investor’s beliefs.
As a result, any new project requiring an oil
price of more than $60 a barrel – almost 50%
below last year’s peak – is now either being
scrapped or deferred until industry costs have
come down sufficiently. But does this mean
that $60 is the actual new long-term oil price?
Not necessarily. Big oil companies appear to
have as little idea as anyone what the price of
Brent crude will be this time next year – let
alone 5 or 10 years from now. None of them
were able to predict last year’s plunge, which
was caused by a US supply glut and OPEC’s
decision not to curb production.
Nevertheless, there are reasons why $60 is, for
now, a sensible assumption. Although higher
than the current spot price of $47, it is the price
where investors believe oil will be in two years
from now.
Andrea Di Francia
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
18
Financial Equities
This week again saw companies release Q3
results, as well as large developments in the
interdealer broking market. UBS [UBS: NYQ]
was not able to meet its profit targets for 2015,
causing its share price to fall 6% on Tuesday.
However, it was able to record an increase in
revenues in the fixed income and equities
trading division, bucking the industry trend and
showing that their business model is working.
ING bank [ING: NYQ] exceeded expectations
with pre-tax profits increasing to $1.63bn in Q3,
mainly due to fewer bank loans being provided.
Furthermore, insurance company, Allianz
[ALVX: GER] announced profits had dropped
15.4% to €1.36bn causing its share price to fall
2.5% on Friday.
Inter-dealer broker ICAP announced that it
would be selling its voice broking business to
market competitor Tullett Prebon. At the end of
2014 there were 1573 voice brokers at ICAP, all
of which will move to Tullett Prebon. The deal
comes at a time when ICAP is undergoing large
structural changes, due to the changing face of
the industry. As voice broking has declined
ICAP has focused on the more profitable
business areas, e-broking and post trade risk
mitigation services. On the contrary, Tullett
Prebon is looking to specialise in industries
which still require voice broking, such as oil.
Both companies’ share prices increased, with
ICAP being favoured by the market, seeing a
price rise of 10% on Friday. With growth in
demand for technology based broking and
increased financial regulations increasing the
necessity of post trade services, I expect ICAP
to prosper in the future.
Standard Chartered announced on Monday
that they made a loss of $139 million, which
came as unexpected news. The company
blamed divestment initiatives, depressed
commodity prices and China’s global slowdown
for the disappointing figures. Furthermore, they
announced £3.3bn would be raised from
investors to be used during their reconstruction
process, which involves delivering new
technology and updating regulatory systems.
The reaction to this was poor, as the market
was not convinced that Bill Winter’s strategy is
working. Fitch credit rating agency downgraded
Standard Chartered’s default rating from AA- to
A+, while the share price has fallen 14%
throughout the week. With so much uncertainty
around the business I doubt it will be a sound
investment decision.
Sam Ewing
(ICAP’s share price since Monday. Source: Yahoo! Finance)
Week Ending 8th November 2015
19
Technology
This week we saw the global information
technology company Hewlett-Packard Inc.
experience a rise from $13.21 to $13.95. Whilst
HP’s rival, Lenovo Group Ltd, a Chinese
multinational computer technology company,
also saw a growth in share prices by 4.4% to
$7.58.
Facebook recently experienced a boost in
mobile-ad revenue, as a result of a 72% year-
on-year growth in advertising on smartphones
and tablets. Mobile advertising is a huge
contributor to the social media group’s ad
revenue, where it accounts for three quarters of
the total - a value that has increased by two-
thirds over a yearly period, driven by a 23%
increase in monthly active mobile users to 1.39
billion people.
Facebook stock prices were greatly influenced
by this growth in mobile advertising, with share
prices already being up by a third since the start
of the year. As a result of ongoing successful
performance, the online social networking
service has boosted its market capitalisation to
a new all-time high of $300 billion. On top of,
this they have recently announced their plan to
launch a news app, called Notify, sometime
next week. This will branch out Facebook’s
stance within the market in a hope to reach the
smartphone generation, allowing it to compete
with the likes of Snapchat and Twitter, whilst
contesting new publishing ventures from
Google and Apple.
This standalone app alerts users to new stories
from numerous media outlets that Facebook
has linked up with, with the likes of Vogue,
CNN, and Comedy Central being involved. With
share prices being up from $102.53 to $106.29
– a 3.7% increase this week upon the
announcement – investors will be pleased with
the development being made. Particularly
following a successful 3rd quarter, where net
profits grew 11%, with the total reaching $896
million. As a result, earnings per share were
$0.32, an increase of $0.01 since last year – a
small but progressive rise.
Even with costs growing at a faster rate than
sales this year, where they were up 68% to
more than $3 billion partly due to the addition of
1,000 new employees to the staff, it’s safe to
say that Facebook is expanding successfully
with an ever increasing market coverage. This
adaptable nature that the company instigates
ensures they are a huge competitor amongst
the likes of Twitter and Apple; safeguarding
what is a great share value and ultimately, a
great investment.
Daniel Land
Facebook’s weekly growth in share price
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
20
Pharmaceuticals
Apart from major developments related to
specific Pharmaceutical companies, equity
movements in this sector remained relatively
stable last week. The FTSE 350
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Index fell by
only 0.23% by the end of last week and this
trend was echoed by the NYSE Pharmaceutical
Index which fell by 0.82% over the course of the
week.
Of particular concern is that Pharmaceutical
giant, Valeant Pharmaceuticals, which tumbled
even further last week after Goldman Sachs
was forced to dump a block of about 1.3 million
shares. This development came amidst a storm
of controversy related to the Canadian drug-
makers reliance on borrowing, aggressive sales
techniques and high prices. Recent losses
resulted from a margin call by Goldman Sachs
after they were forced to sell off shares which
were owned by Michael Pearson, Valeant's
chief executive. A margin call occurs when the
equity held by an investor falls below a certain
criteria in proportion to the loan made by the
broker. Mr Pearson borrowed money from
Goldman in 2013 by using his nine million
shares in the company as collateral for the loan
and news about the company's practices in
August has greatly impacted the personal
wealth of Mr Pearson. Despite rising more than
900% from 2010 up to its peak at the end of
July, huge volumes of shares were dumped last
Thursday sending the share price tumbling by
14% at the end of the day and 20.3% in the first
hour of trading, as shown by the graph below.
Further news affecting Valeant and the industry
in general reveals that Republicans are
blocking the ability for the Democrats to
investigate drug price hikes. Even though the
senate has started probing companies such as
Valeant and Turing, there would have to be a
wider bipartisan push, especially in the House.
Last Wednesday the Republican chairman of
the House Oversight Committee, Jason
Chaffetz from Utah, had rebuffed any efforts to
investigate this matter. In the meantime,
Pharma companies can continue profiteering
and hence investors should remain confident in
the face of this political neglect.
Sam Hillman
Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc
Week Ending 8th November 2015
21
Industrials & Basic
Materials
The benchmark 30-member Philadelphia Stock
Exchange Gold and Silver Index, which
includes mining companies such as Barrick
Gold Corp and Newmont Mining Corp, fell to its
lowest since September 2000. Gold’s 42%
slump from a record set four years ago is cutting
profits and stressing balance sheets for mining
companies, with the largest producers weighed
down by debt loads totalling almost $35 billion.
Randgold Resources Ltd., the best-performing
producer of the metal in the past decade, says
that the biggest gold miners, weighed down by
record debt and prices near a five-year low, will
have to merge with others to survive in such a
climate. Randgold, which has advanced more
than fourfold in London trading over the past 10
years, has so far avoided the worst of the
turmoil that’s forced producers to reduce asset
values and raise cash. Barrick on the other
hand is seeking to sell its mines to cut its debt
and they have discussed with Randgold on the
possibility of combining their operations several
times over the past two decades. Both
companies blamed each other for the
breakdown in the latest merger talks in April last
year.
Randgold is also currently examining
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd.’s Obuasimine in
Ghana, with the option to revive if the company
thinks it can become profitable. This
redevelopment would cost Randgold about
$500 million, which could be paid for without
raising debts or selling of shares. The strong
financial position of Randgold is evident where
they can build a new mine on their own
comfortably. With such a strong financial
standing, Randgold is on the lookout for other
projects to buy, but has been frustrated by
companies excessively pricing assets.
As the price of gold weakens, profit margins of
miners similarly contract. Moreover, higher
lending rates in coming months should similarly
keep the commodity in check, leading to further
weakness among miners. Also, the falling
operating margins of producers give investors
fundamental reason for not owning the sector.
Furthermore, as lending rates should support
the dollar, gold prices will be capped in the near
future.
Gold also dropped for the sixth straight session
and one-month low on Wednesday, as the
dollar shot to a three-month high after US
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen raised
expectations for a December interest rate
increase.
Erwin Low
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
22
COMMODITIES
Energy
It’s been another tough week for energy prices
as markets still attempt to adjust to the current
supply conditions. WTI Crude Oil has fallen
2.4% after some initial price growth earlier in the
week, while Gasoline has not been faring any
better, dropping a similar 2.5%. This has come
as better-than-expected monthly data on US
employment helped to strengthen the US dollar.
In addition, Ethanol – a commodity commonly
used as a fuel when mixed with Gasoline – also
fell sharply by 4.3% over the past 7 days as a
reaction to the drop in Gasoline has reduced
aggregate demand for Ethanol in the economy.
In complete contrast, there was an unlikely
shining light amid the gloom this week - Natural
Gas.
Natural Gas prices have increased this week,
as shown in the graph below. After prices rallied
on Thursday they have finished +1.7% for the
week after data showed a smaller-than-
expected weekly climb in US inventories. But
what makes this even more unlikely is the fact
that total supplies are matching a record level
set three years ago. Total supplies now stand
at 3.929 trillion cubic feet - tying the record
reached for the week ended Nov. 2, 2012,
according to data by the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA).
At first look this price rise seems confusing, but
the key lies in the current time of year. To
understand this correctly I believe an analogy is
needed; Gandalf the White in the “Lord of the
Rings” novels remarks to Pippin, his
companion, of the great battle ahead; “It’s the
deep breath before the plunge” he warns darkly
as they stare at the bleak lands of Mordor. This
situation is comparable to what is happening in
the Natural Gas market. The market refers to
the period as “injection season”, the period
during which natural-gas supplies build up in
preparation for a winter-related spike in heating
demand over the coming months. It is, as
Gandalf would have said, the “deep breath” of
increased demand to have a reserve of Gas
“before the plunge” of winter.
Do not expect these price rises to last however.
With supplies at a record level, Gas inventories
will soon fill up and demand will ebb away until
winter hits the northern hemisphere (and its
biggest consumer, the US). In the future, the
extent of supply must surely result in price falls,
but for now at least, Natural Gas is looking
bright.
Harry Butterworth
Week Ending 8th November 2015
23
Precious Metals
This week we have seen Janet Yellen’s
remarks on the increased chances of a Federal
Reserve interest rate from 46% to 58% this
December which played a significant role in the
global economy as the dollar strengthens
against the emerging market currencies. Gold
prices have hit a seven week low as it has fallen
from 1146.77 USD/oz. to 1103.99USD/oz., a
3.7% drop this week.
The gold prices this week have been pushed
down further as the Fed signalled a possible
December interest rate hike, but this fluctuation
and guessing game of when the Fed would
actually make this decision have hampered
gold’s ability to gain any traction. The prospect
of a stronger dollar as seen from the Dollar Spot
Index (See chart below), which is inversely
related to the prices of gold, has also added to
the sell-off of gold and perhaps not until the Fed
is satisfied with the inflation and unemployment
rate that the actual decision of the raise in
interest rate would be made.
Silver has also plunged dramatically this week
as it posts a 2 month dip by just under a 6%
drop in prices. The two metals Gold and Silver
have been pressured greatly by the speculation
of the Fed’s decision, and Silver being the more
volatile metal, would take a greater hit and is
currently under a higher risk. Copper prices
have also fallen this week from 2.36 USD to
2.25 USD this week and this can be attributed
to the drop in demand from the top consumer,
China, whose growth has slowed in recent
times.
In other news, investors have dumped a
significant amount of platinum and palladium
from funds backed by the metals last month on
concern that demand will ease in the aftermath
of the Volkswagen AG emissions scandal.
Platinum has fallen from 989.40 USD to 947.99
USD this week and Palladium has also fallen
from 672.99 USD to 605.37 USD. The two
metals have a combined drop of over 14% this
week.
Given that the Feds seem to be hawkish, the
increase in headwinds to the global economy,
and the decrease in demand for precious
metals by one of the world’s largest consumer,
China, there is a bearish outlook towards the
precious metals sector. Look out for the Fed’s
meetings, the US dollar index and the global
economy this week to make a more informed
decision on the prices this week.
Samuel Tan
Dollar Spot Index
Gold Price Trend
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
24
Agriculturals
Over the last couple of weeks, agricultural
industry proved to be heavily dependent on
relatively poor weather conditions. Low rainfall
in California and South Africa remains an
important issue to global markets but, this this
week we look at the causes behind the price
depreciation in rubber and milk produce.
Rubber prices are steadily slumping down. The
Tokyo and Thailand rubber industries
experienced a steady decrease in demand in
the last 6 years, closely followed by declines in
prices. From the maximum value of $1743/bu in
2011 rubber prices depreciated to $505/bu by
4th November. This effect came as China, the
main buyer of the good, slowed the demand for
the good, alongside a number of other
purchasers. According to Geofin Research,
Kochi, the national Thailand Rubber Policy
Committee concluded that the government will
try to increase local consumption and expect
prices to rise gradually. This Wednesday’s
overview by Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve
Chair, is expecting a slow price recovery in
December.
Similarly, milk and related goods industry is still
expanding and the surplus of the produced
goods is significantly exceeding demand. Even
though New Zealand is producing much less
milk in 2015 (and is expected remain producing
less in 2016), the decline in regional supply is
still compensated by the growing supply from
Europe. This year the cooler weather from June
to September was provided unfavourable
conditions to grow the feed for the ruminants in
New Zealand. Furthermore, excessive supply
from European countries lowered the
profitability of production in New Zealand and,
consequently, discouraged many farmers from
producing the same level. As evident in the
Figure below, recent milk prices peaked on the
20th June to $17.70/bu and shrank to $15.31/bu
by the beginning of November. For the time
being, the revenue accumulated from sold
goods just covers the cost of production.
However, the graph below also shows a slight
increase in the price to $15.63/bu since 1st
November. This Monday Dairy Today’s Elite
Producer Business conference was hosted in
Las Vegas with Tim Hunt, a respected dairy
strategist, being the guest speaker. He
reflected on today’s milk prices and forecasted
sustained growth in appreciation of the good by
summer 2016.
The explanation provided by the economist
relies on the assumption that low current prices
may ‘unlock additional consumption, eroding
those international stocks’. While this opinion
remains questionable, the pattern for the future
(due to dependency on interrelated factors, e.g.
weather, global demand and production in
neighbouring regions) is difficult to spot yet.
Goda Paulauskaite
Week Ending 8th November 2015
25
CURRENCIES
Major Currencies
Despite manufacturing activity in the US
expanding at the slowest rate in more than 2
years in October, casting doubt over the
strength of the economy, EUR/USD largely
traded flat in the beginning of the week. Better
than forecast US employment change (182k v
180k) helped push the Euro to new lows on
Wednesday afternoon, which was further
damaged when the non-manufacturing
composite was released 2 hours later. Service
sector activity in the US grew ahead of forecast,
coming in at 59.1 (compared to the 56.5
forecast). This erased fears established earlier
in the week and saw the bears battle back as
the market continued to sell off the euro,
pushing it down to the 1.085 level.
With Non-farm payrolls forecast to increase by
40k, and unemployment to remain flat, I believe
the market is poised for a further major sell off,
which will continue to push the currency down
to levels not seen since 2003.
This week I have used technical analysis to
support my fundamental view on EUR/USD;
using Bollinger Bands and a 30/20/10 period
simple moving average. Both are useful for
identifying trends in markets. It is clear from the
SMA analysis in chart 1 that EUR/USD appears
to be in a downward trend; as even the 30 day
and 20 day averages (the slowest to react to
price changes) are now entering a downward
curve. Chart 2, depicting the Bollinger bands,
gives further support to this view. The price has
remained below the 10 day SMA for 15 trading
days now, so we can be confident that
EUR/USD is trending downwards. Furthermore,
the price has just crossed over the lower band
today (5th November); this is an extreme event
that happens rarely, I believe this is a
continuation signal which indicates strength in
the trend. If you look at October 22nd when this
last happened, you can see the price rapidly
dropped over the next week.
With non-farm payrolls and unemployment
figures released we will certainly see a spike of
volatility in EUR/USD, and if the results come in
as forecast there will be a further sell off in the
pair. The technical analysis supports this view
and indicates that the pair is currently on a
downward trend – combining these factors
together I believe they will be pushed down to
new lows and will most likely find support at the
1.07 level. Strong short recommendation.
Adam Nelson
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
26
Minor Currencies
The New Zealand dollar performed poorly this
week against all major currencies; most
markedly against the US dollar, falling just over
4% from the week’s opening price to the week’s
close.
The Kiwi US dollar pair (NZD/USD) started
trading this week around the top of the 0.665,
0.680 range, but this changed early on in
Tuesday’s trading as New Zealand’s GDT Price
Index was released. The GDT Price Index is the
weighted average of the 9 dairy products that
are sold at auction. Dairy prices fell 7.4% over
the last 2 weeks after dropping 3.1% in the 2
weeks previous to this. Dairy exports are a
relatively large proportion of New Zealand’s
exports, and so, if dairy products fall in value,
demand for Kiwi dollar reduces, as less of the
currency is needed to buy the products.
The downtrend in the NZD was continued later
on on Tuesday when poor employment data
was released. Unemployment remained
constant at 6.0% but employment fell 0.4% from
the previous quarter. The news caused the
currency to continue falling into Wednesday
where it managed to break through the previous
significant resistance line at 0.665. The pair
then became a lot less volatile and traded within
a tight range with NZD attempting to stage a
rally mid Thursday that was quickly crushed.
The sharp down candle on Friday was due to
the strong US non-farm payrolls report but the
pair failed to decline any further, meeting heavy
resistance at the 0.650 price.
Next week there is no major news to come out
of New Zealand. Consequently, the pair should
trade within a range where 0.650 will be a highly
significant support price as it has been in
previous weeks. Resistance should be found
around the 0.660 level.
Elsewhere in Australasia, the Reserve Bank of
Australia held its monetary policy meeting. The
RBA decided to keep interest rates at record
lows of 2%. The reason for not cutting rates any
further was given as the ‘firming’ economic
conditions. Prior to the meeting, the market had
odds of further rate cuts at 45%. The meeting
caused the Australian dollar to strengthen by
around 1% but these gains were lost later on in
the week.
Will Norcliffe-Brown
NZD/USD 1 hour candlestick (Source: OANDA)
Week Ending 8th November 2015
27
About the Research Division The Research Division was formed in early 2011 and is a part of the Nottingham Economics and Finance Society (NEFS, formerly known as NFS and UNIS). It consists of teams of analysts closely monitoring particular markets and providing insights into their developments, digested in our NEFS Weekly Market Wrap-Up. The goal of the division is both the development of the analysts’ writing skills and market knowledge, as well as providing NEFS members with quality analysis, keeping them up to date with the most important financial news. We would appreciate any feedback you may have as we strive to grow the quality and usefulness of weekly market wrap-ups.
For any queries, please contact Josh Martin at [email protected]. Sincerely Yours, Josh Martin, Director of the Nottingham Economics & Finance Society Research Division
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About the Research Division The Research Division was formed in early 2011 and is a part of the Nottingham Economics and Finance Society (NEFS, formerly known as NFS and UNIS). It consists of teams of analysts closely monitoring particular markets and providing insights into their developments, digested in our NEFS Weekly Market Wrap-Up. The goal of the division is both the development of the analysts’ writing skills and market knowledge, as well as providing NEFS members with quality analysis, keeping them up to date with the most important financial news. We would appreciate any feedback you may have as we strive to grow the quality and usefulness of weekly market wrap-ups. For any queries, please contact Jack Millar at [email protected] Sincerely Yours, Jack Millar, Director of the Nottingham Economics & Finance Society Research Division
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