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Currencies
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3
Economics
44
ECB intervention is helping to keep yields down but is not a long-term solution
Bailouts only postpone inevitable reckoning; explains why Greece yields remain so high
ECB hoped to offload Irish bank risk by forcing bailout; instead they’ve been obliged to increase market support
Spanish risk seems to have moderated, at least for the moment
Recent auctions went off well, but doesn’t really change outlook
Note: Ten year bonds. Latest data 21 January 2011. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.
Ever present anxietyGovernment 10-year bond spreads over German bunds
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10
Greece
Ireland
Portugal
Spain
bps
Greek bailout /EFSF →
Stress←tests
←Irishbailout
55
What’s unusual is not the spreads now but the spreads of five years ago
Governments like Greece and Spain should never have been lent money at the same rate as Germany
Adjustments in markets now are simply a reappraisal of country risk
Country budget forecasts likely do not reflect this new reality
Unless there are eurozone bonds, individual countries will pay differing interest rates in the future
Latest data 21 January 2011. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.
Just like old timesGovernment 10-year bond spreads over German bunds
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Spain
Portugal
Greece
Ireland
bps← Euro launch
66
Bailouts involve more than just cross-border exposure
Exposure of eurozone countries to Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain is roughly €1 trillion
But the banking sectors are several times larger than their economies — about three times on average
So a rescue sufficient to restore banking sector health would be even larger
Latest data June 2010. Source: ECB, BIS, J.P. Morgan.
Big banks
0
10
20
30
40
Greece Ireland Portugal Spain
Country GDP / Eurozone GDP
Banking Sector Assets / Eurozone GDP
%
77
QE and eurozone crisis battling each other to affect relative value of currencies
On balance, euro not weakening further against its trading partners because of crisis
Dollar likely to suffer longer term as inflation expectations rise and money flows to emerging markets
Euro is currently trading at its long-run average
Devaluation has been 16% in just two years
– Previous major decline of 29% took place over five years from Dec-79 to Mar-85
– Still time for improved competitiveness to feed through to eurozone exports
Note: Relative to average since 1970. Synthetic euro prior to 1999. Latest data 20 January 2011. Source: J.P. Morgan.
Real broad effective exchange rate
102
80
90
100
110
120
Dec 70 Dec 80 Dec 90 Dec 00 Dec 10
Stronger
Weaker
Euro Trade-Weighted Index
88
Fourth quarter GDP shows wide divergence in eurozone growth
German economy benefitting disproportionately from rebound in global trade and China stimulus
Longer term outlook weaker; bulk of exports go to eurozone but growth there is low
– Forecast for 2011 GDP is +1.4% for eurozone ex-Germany, +2.6% for Germany
Divergence of economic performance adds to stress on euro
If dollar weakens because of QE, euro and EM currencies will appreciate more because of yuan peg
Latest data 21 January 2011. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.
German growth rates well ahead of the restFourth quarter 2010 GDP estimates, QoQ %, SAAR
0.3
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.4
1.6
4.3
0 1 2 3 4 5
Spain
Ireland
Portgual
€ ex-Germany
Italy
France
Germany
99
Changes in global growth forecasts are not evenly spread
US perspective improving thanks to QE and tax package, but forecast still down from earlier this year
Emerging market growth to suffer from tightening to ward off inflation plus strengthening currencies
China’s annualised growth rate in 4q estimated to be 13%
– Risk of overheating is rising
Latest data 17 January 2011. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.
Change in 2011 GDP Growth Forecasts — Last 3 Months
-0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8%
United States
Germany
China
Europe ex-Germany
EM ex-China
Developed Asia
3.1%
2.6%
9.0%
1.4%
1.9%
5.0%
2011eGDP
1010
Exports has been very disappointing; preliminary data suggested positive contribution
Most important component of GDP growth is fixed capital formation as it lays groundwork for the future
Inventory rebuild not likely to last
Hopefully net export growth will be able to offset coming fall in government consumption
Forecast for growth in fourth quarter is similarly 2.9%
*Transportation, Storage, and Communications. Latest data Sept. 2010, SAAR. Source: UK Office for National Statistics, J.P. Morgan.
Contribution to 3q10 UK GDP Growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Change InInventories
Fixed CapitalFormation
Gov'tConsumption
NetExports
HouseholdConsumption
TOTAL 2.9%
1111
Increase in business fixed investment is good sign for the economy
This is the third consecutive quarter of positive business investment
Government still spending though this should slow down soon
Fortunately not the most important component of overall capital spending
Note: Value in parenthesis is weight of sector in over index. Latest data September 2010, SAAR. Source: UK Office for National Statistics, J.P. Morgan.
Contribution to Gross Fixed Capital Formation
0%
4%
8%
12%
16% FixedCapital
Formation
Dwellings(20%)
Business(58%)
Government(22%)
+ + =
1212
Sterling is still very competitive despite fall in value of both dollar and euro
Sterling’s decline has yet to substantially benefit UK exports
Since global growth is weak outside China, and UK doesn’t export want China wants (unlike Germany)
Currency is back to level last seen in 1979; exports should pick up eventually
UK’s independent monetary policy is significant advantage relative to Europe
Note: Relative to average since 1970. Latest data 20 January 2011. Source: J.P. Morgan.
Real broad effective exchange rate
94
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Dec 70 Dec 80 Dec 90 Dec 00 Dec 10
Stronger
Weaker
Sterling Trade-Weighted Index
1313
US GDP for third quarter was weak, but largely due to fall in net exports; fourth quarter forecast 3.2%
Growth excluding change in Net Exports and Residential Investment was 5%
Consumer demand below average — normally it is over 2%
Imports increased 17% compared to a 5% gain in exports
– Suggests room for further dollar declines
Latest data September 2010, SAAR. Source: BEA, J.P. Morgan. Second revision.
Contribution to 3q10 US GDP Growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
ConsumerDemand / PCE
Inventory Change
BusinessInvestment
ResidentialInvestment
GovernmentExpenditure
Net Exports
TOTAL 2.5%
1414
Risks for market: Gains seem to be very dependant on ever rising supply of money; what happens when the party’s over?
Hope is that money supply growth plus low interest rates stimulate economy. Hasn’t happened yet
Could lead to asset bubbles, particularly in emerging markets (both equity and debt)
Stock of money has to come out of the system eventually
Latest round of QE just stores up problems for the future
Latest data available as at 21 January 2011. Source: US Federal Reserve.
Huge Increase In Money Supply Driving Market
700
950
1,200
1,450
1,700
1.35
1.45
1.55
1.65
1.75
1.85
1.95
Dec 04 Dec 07 Dec 10
Money Supply, M1 (lhs)
S&P 500 (rhs)$tr Level
1515
Quantitative easing could raise inflation expectations in the US once growth accelerates
Global growth may be restrained, but deflationary scenario unlikely
– US property bubble nowhere near as big as Japan’s
– Inflation excluding housing is 1.4%
Risk is that inflation (both realized and expected) gets out of hand
QE distorts price signals from market
UK expectations not rising despite recent report
Germany may be next to see rising expectations
Note: For Eurozone, UK and US, calculation is for five year inflation rate in five years (5YR-5YR). Japan is average of 5-10 year breakevens. Data as at 20 January 2011. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.
Expected Inflation Rates
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
May 07 May 08 May 09 May 10
Japan
US
%
UK
Germany
1616
Japan suffered decades of deflation because it’s housing bubble was huge
From 1955 to 1973, house prices in Japan increased 13 times, versus just 6 times from 1973 to 1990
– Land under Japan’s Imperial Palace worth more than California
First period (1955-73) was largely matched by GDP growth, but the second wasn’t
By this measure, US looks okay, but Spain is scary
*Japan: Land Underlying Buildings and Structures; US: Household Real Estate Assets; UK: Residential Buildings; Spain: Residential Household Wealth; Ireland: Dwellings. Source: OECD, Japan Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Cabinet Office (Government of Japan), US Federal Reserve, S&P/Case-Shiller, OFHEO, UK Office for National Statistics, Bank of Spain, Ireland Central Statistics Office, Permanent TSB/ESRI, J.P. Morgan.
What goes up….Residential property values* as % of GDP
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1977 1987 1997 2007 2017 2027
Japan (+17 yrs)
US
UK
Spain
Ireland
1717
Falling inflation in the US is primarily a function of declining house prices
Most headlines have focused on low core CPI rates, just 0.6% in December (YoY)
But most of this is explained by a fall in house prices
Excluding housing, prices are still rising by 1.4%/year; low but not deflationary
House prices in US may be stabilising
In Japan, prices have fallen almost across the board
Latest data December 2010. Source: BLS, J.P. Morgan.
Non-house inflation is not lowYear on year change in CPI index
-0.1
1.4
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Dec 02 Dec 04 Dec 06 Dec 08 Dec 10
Housing
All items less energy & housing
%
1818
Job losses during this recession were unprecedented and recoveries are taking progressively longer
Employment levels fell over 7% during the course of the recession, substantially worse than in previous downturns
Distressingly, rebounds are taking ever longer
– Prior to 1980, it took less than two years to return to pre-recession employments levels
– Every recovery since has been slower
– Likely due to growing service sector orientation of economy
In 1990 and 2001 recession, jobs grew at a 1.7% annualized rate from bottom
So far growth for 2008 recession has been 1.3%
Return to baseline (100) will take 4 years at 1.7% pace; 5 years at 1.3% pace*Note: US Non-Farm Private Payrolls. Latest data December 2010. Source: BEA, J.P. Morgan.
Indexed US Employment Levels* From Beginning of Recession
92
94
96
98
100
0 12 24 36 48
Em
plo
yme
nt L
eve
l
Months Into Recession
1957
1981
1990
2001
2008
Recession
1919
Still, current recession is dramatically less severe than the Great Depression
This chart actually overstates impact of decline in employment
In 1930, 22% of the US population was employed in agriculture, versus 2% today
Latest data December 2010. Source: NBER, BEA, USDA, J.P. Morgan.
Indexed US Employment Levels From Beginning of Recession
65
72
79
86
93
100
0 2 4 6 8
Em
plo
yme
nt L
eve
l
Years Into Recession
1929
2008
Recession
96%
2020
Labour markets are suffering because of negative equity in housing
Negative equity of $2.4 trillion equals almost 20% of mortgage debt outstanding
Foreclosures initially surged but only account for 5% of existing loans and have now slowed
People can’t move because they can’t sell their home, so unemployment is higher than normal
If the debt is not written off (or assumed by government), will take years to work through
Reminiscent of Japan’s zombie companies
Source: Negative equity data from Mark Zandi and Robert Shiller, Mortgage Bankers Association, J.P. Morgan. Latest data available as at 14 January 2010.
Mortgages in Negative Equity and Delinquency Rates
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
3
6
9
12
Jun 98 Jun 02 Jun 06 Jun 10
Seriously Delinquent Loans (lhs)
Homeowners in Negative Equity (rhs)
% %
21
Asset Classes
2222
Index performance may be getting ahead of earnings growth
Earnings growth is lagging
– Fourth quarter earnings typically grow by 3% QoQ
– Expectations for this quarter are below this when should be above
– Year-ago comparison appears high — up 33% —because of base effect
QE II is very beneficial for risk assets, particularly equities
The risk is that it inflates assets without benefitting equally the underlying economy
Markets may weaken once money stops flowing
Latest data 21 January 2011. Source: IBES, J.P. Morgan.
Earnings Growth — S&P 500
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
-30
-15
0
15
30
Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10
Earnings Growth (lhs)
Expected (4q10)
S&P Index Level (rhs)
QoQ%
96
-66
1.2%
2323
Given low earnings growth expectations, surprises may have a large impact this quarter
Tech has generally done well, though outlook cloudy for Apple
Financials have been mixed
Trend so far well below previous quarters
Note: For 4q10, 52 companies have reported accounting for 17% of index market capitalization. Latest data 21 January 2011. Source: IBES, J.P. Morgan.
Earnings Surprises — S&P 500Cumulative for quarter
750
950
1,150
1,350
-24
-12
0
12
24
2q08 4q08 2q09 4q09 2q10 4q10
Surprise Amount (lhs)
Surprise QTD (lhs)
S&P 500 (1q ahead, rhs)
$b
-74
2424
It’s still early days, but initial company guidance is starting out weaker than last quarter
Trend over the last year has been for guidance in each quarter to be higher than the previous
Earnings season has only just begun, but so far companies are not raising their projections for future earnings growth substantially
Suggests earnings revisions may suffer
Latest data as at 21 January 2011. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.
Positive Changes to Earnings GuidanceAs percent of total changes
25
35
45
55
65
1 1 2 3 4
4q09
4q10 2q10
Week in Earnings Season
% Up 3q10
2525
Net income growth has slowed as margins have fallen and sales growth lags
Earnings growth since the market bottom in 1q09 has been impressive, but it came from cost cutting and margin expansion
This process has a natural limit. Companies can’t cut forever and need revenue growth to power future earnings
Sales growth in 4q10 is forecasted to be just 7.3% higher than the year-ago quarter; in 3q10 growth was 9.%
Difficult with modest GDP expansion to increase revenues
Note: Excludes financial stocks. Sales and net income indexed to Q1 2006. Latest data 21 January 2011. Source: Worldscope, J.P. Morgan. Latest quarter forecast assumes commensurate change in sales and earnings for 15% of companies that have not yet reported for quarter.
Sales, Net Income and Margin Trends — S&P 500
4
6
8
10
75
100
125
150
175
1q06 4q06 3q07 2q08 1q09 4q09 3q10
Net Income (lhs)
Sales (lhs)
Margin (rhs)
Index %
Developed Markets
North America
Europe
Developed Asia
Emerging Markets
Latin America
EMEAEmerging Asia
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%100.0 100.5 101.0 101.5 102.0
Re
lativ
e V
alu
atio
n
Earnings Revision Index
2626
Valuations are attractive for developed markets remain attractive despite rally; revisions improving
Latest data available as at 21 January 2011. Source: IBES, J.P. Morgan.
Stronger Earnings Growth
Ch
eap
er V
alu
atio
n
Austria
Belgium
Japan
France
Germany
Hong Kong
Finland
NorwayPortugal
Spain
UKUS
Brazil
India
China
Mexico
Taiwan
Turkey
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
99.0 99.5 100.0 100.5 101.0 101.5 102.0 102.5
Re
lativ
e V
alu
atio
n
Earnings Revision Index
2727
Mexico joining Brazil in expensive territory but with poorer earnings outlook
Latest data available as at 21 January 2011. Source: IBES, J.P. Morgan.
Stronger Earnings Growth
Ch
eap
er V
alu
atio
n
Energy
Materials
Industrials
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Health Care
Financials
TechTelecom Services
Utilities
Growth
Value
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%99.5 100.0 100.5 101.0 101.5 102.0 102.5 103.0
Re
lativ
e V
alu
atio
n
Earnings Revision Index
2828
Commodity plays seeing largest positive moves
Latest data available as at 21 January 2011. Source: IBES, J.P. Morgan.
Stronger Earnings Growth
Ch
eap
er V
alu
atio
n
2929
How risky is inflation for emerging market equity performance?
The correlation between inflation rates and emerging market index performance is not strong
Equities generally benefit from (moderately) rising prices
Risk is rather from inappropriate monetary policy response
– Either central bank tightens too much and economy slows dramatically
– Or it does not tighten enough (perhaps to avoid currency appreciation) and economy overheats
High commodity weightings offer extra protection
Emerging Market Index and Inflation Rates
Note: Index in USD terms. Inflation rate weighted by MSCI market capitalization. Last data 21 January 2001. Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan.
2
4
6
8
10
50
100
200
400
Dec 95 Dec 00 Dec 05 Dec 10
Emerging Markets Index (log, lhs)
Inflation Rate (rhs)%
3030
Watch both inflation and policy rates to see where balance lies
Emerging Market Inflation and Policy Rates
1 Year Best Lending Rate - China 1 Week Deposit Rate - RussiaSelic Overnight Target - Brazil O/N Govt Rate - MexicoBase Rate - South Korea BI Rate - IndonesiaDiscount Rate - Taiw an 1 Day Repo Rate - ThailandRepo Rate - India Discount Rate - ChileRepo Rate - South Africa
Latest data 21 January 2011. Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan.
CountryWeight in MSCI EM Now
Change vs 6
Mo. Ago Now
Change vs 6
Mo. AgoChina 18% 4.6% 1.6% 5.8% 0.5%Brazil 16 5.6 0.8 11.3 1.0Korea 14 3.5 0.9 2.8 0.8Taiwan 12 1.3 0.1 1.6 0.2India 8 8.3 -5.4 6.3 1.0South Africa 8 3.6 -0.6 5.5 -1.0Russia 7 8.8 3.1 3.0 0.3Mexico 5 4.4 0.7 4.5 -0.1Indonesia 2 7.0 2.0 6.5 0.0Thailand 2 2.8 -0.5 2.3 1.1Chile 2 3.0 1.8 3.3 2.3
Inflation Rate Policy Rate
3131
China inflation not as bad as headline figures suggest but too strong GDP growth is a worry
Food prices have a disproportionate weight in Chinese CPI calculations
Excluding food, inflation appears contained
Negative reaction of market to prospect of government tightening shows how dependent market sentiment and growth is on China
Latest data December 2010. Source: China Economic Information Network.
Excluding food, China inflation under controlChinese inflation indices, annual change, %
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10
Headline inflation
Inflation excluding food%
3232
The case for emerging markets is the same as in the past, but risks have fallen; inflation is major worry
The opportunity in developed markets has always been catch up, convergence, aspiration and urbanisation
It’s only been crises which have spoiled the story
We believe things are different this time
The risks of currency or debt crises like those in the past have fallen
– No fixed exchange rates
– Low foreign currency debt
– Smaller current account deficits
Emerging Market Index Performance
Latest flow data November 2010. Index as at 17 December 2010, USD terms. Source: S&P/IFC, J.P. Morgan.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Dec 75 Dec 85 Dec 95 Dec 05
Mexico,Argentina (1995) Argentina
(2001)
Asia(1997)
Russia(1998)
Latin America(1980-83)
Cumulative 12-Month FundFlow as % of Assets
Emerging Markets
Index (log, no scale)
%
3333
Low yields in US have not yet lead to a major outflow of funds
One of the concerns about QE (I and II) is that a search for yield will drive investors abroad, in particular to emerging markets
Cross-border flow data does not show this happening
US investment in foreign securities
Latest flow data October 2010. Treasury yields as at 17 December 2010. Source: US Treasury, J.P. Morgan.
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
Aug 03 Aug 05 Aug 07 Aug 09
Foreign Security Purchases (lhs)US 10-yr Treasury Yield (rhs) %$ bn
3434
Emerging markets are not as volatile as you might think
Historically emerging markets have been more volatile than developed markets
The performance over the last two years has shown the opposite
Traditional risks in emerging markets have declined
– Fixed exchange rates
– Foreign currency debt
While developed market risks have increased
– Quantitative easing
– Sovereign debt
Investors are getting higher prospective returns for less risk
Annualised market volatility
Note: Monthly frequency in USD terms until 1987, daily frequency in local currency terms subsequently. Data as at 31 December 2010. Source: IFC, MSCI, J.P. Morgan.
0
5
10
15
20
Late 70s
1980s 1990s Early 20s
2005-08
2009-10
Developed Markets
Emerging Markets%/yr
3535
Government bonds yields have risen markedly since August
Extreme bond valuations have lessened, but the asset class still offer poor value
Yields are simply normalizing
High correlation between the three markets, even though each has different dynamics
– Germany: Europe liability + growth
– UK: Inflation + growth
– US: QE + tax package = inflationary growth
UK likely to be first country to raise interest rates
Government Bond Yields (10-year)
Latest data as at 21 January 2011. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.
2
3
4
5
6
Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10
UK US Germany%
3636
The great moderation in government bond yields over the last 30 years is over
Developed market central banks have won their war against inflation over the last 30 years
Fixed income returns from government debt till now have come from:
– High nominal (and real yields)
– Plus price appreciation
Now neither is likely
Government Bond Yields
Latest data as at December 2010. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of England, Barclays Capital, J.P. Morgan.
0%
5%
10%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Dec 81 Dec 91 Dec 01 Dec 11
Nominal Government Bond Yield
Real Yield
3737
High yield debt presents the best opportunities
Prospects for company cash generation still strong even if economy slows
Still, limited room for spread compression
– Current spread is 100 bps below long run average
– At average if credit crunch is excluded
Emerging market debt has gone from high yield to investment grade in risk; both good and bad
QE is helping to bring down EM spreads
Local currency EM debt offers currency appreciation to offset rise in interest rates
Duration risk for Investment Grade debt
Latest data 21 January 2011. Source: Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan.
Bond Spreads
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
Dec 99 Dec 02 Dec 05 Dec 08
High Yield: 555 bps
Emerging Markets: 239 bps
Investment Grade: 155 bps
3838
Investors seeking inflation hedge will help support commodity prices in the short term
Chinese equity market still likely to outperform relative to developed markets
Economy should slow down enough to avoid overheating
Commodity prices will continue to benefit from China growth though changes in China sentiment will weigh as well
Latest data 20 January 2011. Source: MSCI, Standard & Poors.
As Goes China…
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals MSCI China
39
FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS ONLY. NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION.
Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out, unless otherwise stated, are J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at date of publication. They are considered to be accurate at the time of writing, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. The views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or recommendation to buy or sell any investment and the material should not be relied upon as containing sufficient information to support an investment decision. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. Changes in exchange rate may have an adverse effect on the value price or income of the product. Investments in smaller companies may involve a higher degree of risk as they are usually more sensitive to market movements. Investments in emerging markets may be more volatile and therefore the risk to your capital could be greater. Further, the economic and political situations in emerging markets may be more volatile than in established economies and these may adversely influence the value of investments made. You should also note that if you contact J.P. Morgan Asset Management by telephone those lines could be recorded and may be monitored for security and training purposes. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co and its affiliates worldwide. Issued by JPMorgan Asset Management (Europe) Société à responsabilité limitée, European Bank & Business Centre, 6 route de Trèves, L-2633 Senningerberg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, R.C.S.Luxembourg B27900, corporate capital EUR 10.000.000. Material issued in the United Kingdom are approved for use by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, 125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AJ, England. JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England No. 01161446. Registered address: 125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AJ.
Prepared by:Kerry Craig, Dan Morris and Tom Elliott
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
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