Multiplying Capitals: The Challenge of Quantitative Modeling Using the
Community Capitals Framework
Stephen GasteyerMichigan State University
Why integrate CCF with biophysical and socio-economic modeling efforts
• There are increasing attempts to model biophysical processes
• There are increasing calls from policy and decision makers to use models to mitigate risk
• There is increasing recognition of the import of socio-economic processes
Some challenges to use of CCF
• Models are predictive…• CCF is an heuristic device – a framework…• In and of itself, it is not a theory – and therefore
does not imply hypotheses• It therefore needs to be married with other
frameworks to be used in making prediction• Or needs to adopt a more historical approach
that allows for prediction using the framework as a heuristic
Additional challenges
• CCF is not based on mathematical principles
• Indeed, while there is a focus on indicators, many of the most important indicators are qualitative and have to be constructed into quantitative measures
• CCF is contextual – so there is a challenge in rigorously aggregating over space
Key connections to existing frameworks
• Resilience theory – (Regime Theory)• Risk theory – Renn’s dialogic frameworks…• Socioecological Systems (SES)– Derivative from Institutional Analysis for
Development (IAD)– Integrating social systems theories…– Integrating actual community dynamics
• Capacity theory…
Quantifying Capitals
Community Capitals
Framework
Natural
Social
Cultural
Financial
Built
Human
Political
Secondary Data
Natural
Financial
Survey
Social
Built
Natural
InterviewsPolitical
Human
Community Capitals
Framework
Secondary Data1. Financial Capital
1. Population Change2. Poverty reduction 3. Change in number of small
businesses 4. Income
2. Built Capital1. Change in Vacant Housing Units 2. Local industries # increasing/
Decreasing?
3. Political Capital1. Consolidated Federal Funds (OMB)2. USDA RD Funding (USDA)
1. Natural Capital1. Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) 2. Soil Quality (USDA) 3. Air Quality (EPA4. Land Use (NRI – Regional Planning)5. Water Use (USGS)6. Water Quality (EPA)
2. Cultural Capital1. How far people travel to get to work
(Census-- stay in community or leave?)3. Human Capital
1. Graduation Rates from elementary school, middle school and high school
2. Out-migration/ in-migration of educated population?
3. Education levels of community members4. Change in % of people of working age (18
to 64) 5. Change in % of Employment
Primary Indicators
• Social Capital• Cultural Capital
Safer LessTrash
Im-prove-ments
NeighborsInteract
NeighborsTrust
MSUMowing
Neigh-borhoodChanged
0
20
40
60
80
100
Perc
enta
ge o
f res
pond
ents
w
ho g
ener
ally
agr
ee
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