Climate variability and change or multiple stressors? Farmer
perceptions regarding threats to livelihoods in Zimbabwe and
Zambia
Chipo Plaxedes Mubaya
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Outline
• Study background
• Objectives
• Methodology
• Findings
• Conclusions 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Study background
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Context
• General indications of more erratic rainfall and temperature increases in Africa
• A general decrease for total seasonal rainfall and temperature increases in Southern Africa
• Among countries worst affected are Zimbabwe and Zambia
• Economies agriculture (rain-fed) based3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Objectives
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
AimEstablish farmer perceptions of climate risk, identify
existing response strategies and develop appropriate strategies for adapting to future
climatic change
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
• Perceptions related to decision making • Mal-adaptations attributed to problems in
perception, cognition or the lack of available information
• Attribution
• Understand perceptions on non-climate risks
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Objectives of the study• Farmer perceptions
regarding CC & V as a threat to livelihoods
• Investigate perceptions regarding CC & V in relation to non-climatic risks
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Methodology
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3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Approach to the study
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3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Findings
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Significant changes in weather patterns over a five year period by district
92
8
87
13
77
23
88
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% farmers
Monze Sinazongwe Lupane Lower Gweru
Yes No3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Zimbabwe Zambia
Precipitation More unpredictable- 1995 More unpredictable- late 1980s
Droughts (3 seasons between 1990 & 2010)
Higher incidence & intensity of dry spells
Excessive rains (2 seasons after 2000)
Heavy rains and floods (2 consecutive seasons 2006/7, 2008/9
Shorter rain seasons
Temperature Hotter than before Hotter than beforeShift in highest temperature periods
Warmer winters than before Prolonged winters3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Farmer perceptions of three seasons by district
73
45
11
23
54 54
3629 32 35
27
47
27
55
89
77
46 46
6471 68 65
73
53
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mo
nze
Sin
azon
gw
e
Lu
pa
ne
Lo
wer
Gw
eru
Mo
nze
Sin
azon
gw
e
Lu
pa
ne
Lo
wer
Gw
eru
Mo
nze
Sin
azon
gw
e
Lu
pa
ne
Lo
wer
Gw
eru
2006/07 season 2005/06 season 2004/05 season
% o
f fa
rmers
good bad3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Perceptions regarding causes
Causes of CC & V Monze %
Sinazongwe %
Lupane %
Lower Gweru %
Natural causes 34 35 24 31
Deforestation 33 17 5 14
Believe its god's will/ nature, cultural beliefs
3 7 45 27
Does not know 30 41 26 283/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Stressors • Financial • Market constraints• Livestock/crop diseases• Agricultural inputs• Weakened government capacity• Inadequate draught power/farming implements• Climate related• HIV and AIDS• Low soil fertility
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Zambia
Stressor Food insecurity Loss of income
Insecure livelihoods
Total Rank
Erratic rainfall 20 10 18 48 1
Lack of capital 10 20 15 45 2
Drying up of water sources 12 14 13 39 3
Few dams 10 15 8 33 4
Shortage of draught power 15 10 7 32 5
Lack of knowledge 9 12 10 31 6
Non- functional dip tanks 6 4 10 20 7
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Zimbabwe Stressor Loss of
crop yield
Loss of income
Insecure livelihood
Total Rank
Climate variability (Erratic rains, frost, drought)
18 16 16 50 1
Shortage of drugs in clinics 16 16 16 48 2
Late supply of inputs 14 16 14 44 3
Lack of transport to market produce and bad roads
10 18 12 40 4
HIV and AIDS 10 10 14 34 5
Lack of draught power 12 10 6 28 6 3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Changes in farming systems by district over a five year period
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%M
onze
Sin
azon
gwe
Lupa
ne
Low
er G
wer
u
Mon
ze
Sin
azon
gwe
Lupa
ne
Low
er G
wer
u
Mon
ze
Sin
azon
gwe
Lupa
ne
Low
er G
wer
u
Mon
ze
Sin
azon
gwe
Lupa
ne
Low
er G
wer
u
crop yields livestock populations agric income food availability
% o
f fa
rmer
s
increased same declined3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
Conclusions
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
• Farmers reports on local climatic conditions are generally consistent with actual climate reports
• Farmers may be assigning observed negative impacts on the agricultural and socio-economic system solely to climate variability
• Challenges in disentangling contribution of each factor to observed outcomes
• Climate variability and change remain the most critical for these farmers in multiplicity of stressors
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
THANK YOU
3/11/2011 Climate change Symposium
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