Module 3Future State
Agenda for all 5
Module Description Homework
1 Introduction to Lean Thinking
Project documentation and customer information
2 Current State Analysis Current State Map
3 Future State Future State MapImplementation Plan
4 Sustainable Change Complete A3
5 Lessons Learnt and Final Presentation
Continue implementation and further Lean work
Review of Module 2
You can now:-• Create a current state map
• Understand root cause analysis
• Understand Plan Do Check Act and A3
• Run a mapping workshop
Lets Review Your Homework
Current State Mapping
Agenda
• Things to avoid/build in to your future state
• Brainstorming ideas
• Developing an aspirational state
• Developing future states
• Choosing the right solutions
• Implementation planning and monitoring
You Should…
Be able to:-• Understand how to generate ideas with an
improvement team
• Use various techniques to develop aspirational states
• Develop future state maps that meet customer requirements
• Create basic implementation plans that can be easily monitored
What is Lean?
Plan
Do
Check
Act
Investigate the current situation & understand fully the nature of the problem to be solved
Develop a future state. Implement short term fixes and long term plans to eliminate root causes
Evaluate the effect of implementation; have actions delivered expected results?
Put plans in place to standardise the process & set further review dates
Plan
Do
Check
Act
Investigate the current situation & understand fully the nature of the problem to be solved
Develop a future state. Implement short term fixes and long term plans to eliminate root causes
Evaluate the effect of implementation; have actions delivered expected results?
Put plans in place to standardise the process & set further review dates
A3 – Business School
Do
The Future State
I’ve got my current state now what?
So many issues and suggestions
where do we start?
What must the future have that
the current didn’t?
Runners, Repeaters, Strangers
Runner:Are tasks that occur on a daily basis and are sufficient volume to justify a dedicated processe.g. changes to staff details
Repeater:Are tasks that occur on a regular basis but less frequently than runners and are not part of the day to day activity of the organisatione.g. managing adoption leave
Stranger:Are tasks that occur infrequently and are best dealt with as they occur on an ad hoc basise.g. member of staff arrested
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3s2VdtYw-g0&feature=related
Making Work Flow - Batch & Queue/Push
• Producing or processing multiple items and then moving it all (in a batch) to the next stage before they are needed there– Inventory (work in progress) waiting to be worked on– Poor resource allocation– Longer cycle times– Defects may not be identified until a number of batches
have gone a long way through the system• Lower morale as people are always surrounded by piles of
unfinished work! • Takes longer
Batch & Queue – Processing Exam Papers
Example: An exam paper is marked by 3 examiners. At each stage (A,B and C) a paper takes 30 minutes to process. There are 10 papers to mark.
5 hours 5 hours 5 hours
15 + hours
One Piece Flow
• ‘One piece flow’ aka ‘single piece flow’,’ make one, move one’ and continuous flow) involves :– With single piece flow one item at a time is processed and
there is no build up of inventory as work is processed to customer demand (pull).
– Keeps work moving– Work is more varied– Quicker
Single Piece FlowExample: An exam paper is marked by 3 examiners. At each stage (A,B and C) a paper takes 30 minutes to process. There are 10 papers to mark.
The Penny Game
Poka Yoke
• Attention Type– Highlighting that an
error has been made e.g. spell checker
• Shut out Type – Preventing an error
being made e.g. a three pin plug
My nameisMsr Smith
Experts
• Have you got your experts in the right place?• Do decisions get made too late on in the process?• Are errors being picked up at the end?
• Put expertise where needed (early in the process)• Get the expert to send the work down the right path• Put experts where errors can be picked up early and
use the expert to put preventative measures in place
The Future State
Ok so we know what the
problem is what do we do
about it?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtw33b9TCfU
Brainstorming – The Rules
• No judgment• Going for quantity of ideas• All people are to be involved• Record responses as they are said with no
editing• Can add to comment but not alter or delete• All viewpoints recorded• 3rd Party recorder• Create a limit (time, no of ideas, pages of
flipchart etc)
Some Suggestions…• Drop the barometer from the top of the building and time its descent.
Calculate the height based on the acceleration of gravity.
• Tie the barometer to the end of a piece of string. Lower the barometer
over the building and measure the length of the string.• Counting the number of steps taken whilst carrying the barometer up the
stairs to the roof and multiplying that by the height of the stair tread.• Walk the barometer up the side of the building, end to end. Measure the
length of the barometer and calculate the building’s height.• Place the barometer vertically on the ground. Compare the ratio of the
barometer’s height to the length of its shadow and the ratio of the building to the length of its shadow.
• Offer to give the barometer as a gift to the janitor in exchange for information about the height of the building.
• Chuck the barometer at the teacher, then whilst he is knocked out, read the answer sheet.
Lean and Mapping
CURRENTSTATE
IDEALSTATE
FUTURESTATE
FUTURESTATE
FUTURE STATE
Aspirational
• What is it?– Blue sky thinking– No constraints
• Why do it?– Break paradigms– Initial future state is not always visionary– Brilliant ideas
• How do you do it?
One Way to do itIf it was a ship what kind of ship would it be?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvJ9tacoXuw&feature=player_embedded
Beach and Clean Environment
Cardiff University
Home Office
Once successfully complete English Language course computer is updated and information automatically sent
through to the Home Office
Automated process begins* Bank* Sims
* Transcripts* Police Registration
* Photos* Sponsor Letter
Automated Process
Start Online process* Pop ups at each stage of the process
* Online forms on PDAs $
Bank
The Bank automatically generate data
required
REGIS
REGIS automatically
generate letters etc
ADVIS Reception issue Visa
Split the Cash with
ADVIS
½ Price Visas
Free T-Shirt‘I got my Visa at
Cardiff University’
Deliver the Visa on a silver tray
‘Delighter’
ADVIS Reception Aspirational Map ~ 31st July 2007
Another Way
Another Way
BigSpread
the word
Integration
Calm
Visible
Everyone wants to
come
£££
Students reach the
island
Even water
Good steer
Don’t know that the Centre
is there
Appropriate skills
Support
Modern
Recognised by School
Infrastructure
Engine room
working
Smooth journey
SatisfactionEasy
Clarity
Continuity
PredictableFamilyAchievement
Structured
Enjoyable
Effortless
36
Lean and Mapping
CURRENTSTATE
IDEALSTATE
FUTURESTATE
FUTURESTATE
FUTURE STATE
The Future State Should…
• Be customer focussed– Build the customer feedback into your future state
(Kano)• Remove waste and failure demand
– Build in error proofing• Align process and resource to meet demand
– Consider runners, repeaters and strangers– Manage batch sizes and bottlenecks– Expertise at the front
• Incremental steps as well as step changes
Time
Quality
Waste
Cost
Developing Future States
• Sometimes you can collect good ideas as you progress
• Aim for a solution to every issue• Massive post-its over blocks of issues, collate into
themes• Brainstorm improvements
– In teams– Individually
• Think radically – bring in ideas from the aspirational• Think short term, medium term, long term
Application received in
admissions office (90% electronic)
Office downloads:– transcripts, references, English language qualifications
Make up pack (1 FTE +4 temps)
- application forms and docs
- front sheet (from Registry) completed
by admissions tutor & signed
To complete sheet -check educational institution
(NARIC)- ranking of institution
- English language qualifications- GPA
Recommend – CF/UF/reject
Packs go to tutors in paper form.
Some turn round in 24 hours.
Others up to 2 weeks.
Back to office
Decision logged (SIMS) + offer released (to
REGIS) Application
shredded (10k)
Up to 5 working days
to REGIS making offer to
student
If UF: Accept or reject offer
If CF: Wait for results or pre-
sessional engl etc)Cut off around July
Once accepted, get CAS letter –
unique number to apply for VISA - can’t then apply anywhere else
Enrolment online – from 3 weeks prior to
start date
Fee payment (1 or 3
instalments) (FINCE)
DMS 1813
CARBSPostgraduate Admissions Process
Enrolment week
Week long induction- formal welcomeCourse based induction-Course social
Collect id cards
Before
After
Choosing the Right Improvement Suggestions
• Need to reach a consensus• Make sure that the change is in the customer’s
best interest, not the process operator’s• Try things out!
– Plan Do Check Act – means that even when something doesn’t work, you’ve still LEARNED
• Can’t do everything at once so prioritise– Short, Medium and Long Term implementation
Pain Gain Chart
Implement ASAP
Implement
Put plans in place for long term
implementation
Not for now
PHARM PGT - Future StateEnquirer Applicant Student Other
1. Good web presence
2. Timely response to enquiries
5. Review the look of the website (modernise)
4. Analysis of customer experience
3. Library of resources for all to
access
6. Gather information on enquiries
7. All required information on one
application form
8. Student responsible for the submission of all
paperwork
10. Ask Registry for an update on
information for English language requirements and
degree equivalents
14. Investigate the possible use of an
electronic signature for Head of School
approval
13. Review of rejection codes to
ensure that they are fit for purpose
20. Set up a central Cardiff University
account for payment by Saudi Arabian
students and arrange transfer of funds to
Germany
12. Clarification of MIPHE
administration and roles from Cardiff /
Germany
11. Amend acceptance form with
admissions requirements for
each course
9. Scanner for supplementary
application forms
17. Students to set up transfer of Cardiff e-mails to personal
accounts: add guidelines to the
student handbook
16. Transparency of dates and deadlines for all courses (flow
diagram)
15. Check SIMS online applications at
least once a week
18. Different letter needed for MIPHE
payment
19. Only send standard thank you
latter to paper applications
21. Finance to invoice students early
and let us know if there are problems before the Board of
Examiners
22. Ability to overwrite student module selection
23. Investigate reasons for large
dropout for MIPHE course
24. Clarify with Registry that all of our students are distance
learning / part-time
25. Contact Jill Bedford in Registry to deal with the various issues discussed to include: What is the
process from the Board of Examiners to
graduation; why the different dates for
undergraduate and postgraduate taught – can the deadline be
changed; clarity of the information to Registry and how they use the
information.
26. Speak to INSRV regarding the rollover
of Blackboard and consistency of
access, with a log of figures where appropriate
27. Better understanding of process regarding
Blackboard modules (Bernadette / Robert)
28. Training to investigate capability
of Blackboard for student feedback (bespoke course)
29. Use of coffee / tea machine and
order milk cartons and biscuits from the catalogue for use on
weekend courses
30. IT support for weekend schools
31. Review Cardiff University expenses
policy and procedures
32. Use of Bristol Online Surveys
(BOS) for course evaluations (bespoke training session to be
organised)
33. Speak to the Chair of the Learning
and Teaching Committee regarding Postgraduate Taught
issues
34. Clarification of roles for IT support
(hardware vs. software)
35. Submission of multiple choice
questionnaires via Blackboard; review
the way that coursework is
submitted
36. Interpretation of Turnitin reports by
Course Administrators
(discussion / training)
37. Discussion regarding
moderation / double marking. Markers to
input marks onto spreadsheet
38. Speak to Tony Caffel regarding
CLAWS procedures for spreadsheets and
SIMS
39. Input into SONMS discussion
regarding moderation / 2
degree marking (Away Day)
40. Mapping retrospective and
prospective mitigating
circumstances / interruption of studies
and electronic records of these
41. SIMS allows module mark only
with no breakdown; can this be changed?
42. Use headed notepaper for
Blackboard results in a locked PDF file
43. Calculate cost per student per
course (financial cost and hours of time)
44. Request for monthly financial
reports per course
45. Need for somebody to
undertake financial modelling
46. Know when letters are sent to
students from Registry
47. Dummy student account for checking
Blackboard
48. Opportunities for bespoke / group
training (for example INSRV / REGIS)
49. Consider the use of other resources for
example UniStaff.
PHARM PGT - Priorities
7
41
1213
204
8
18 15
21
22
45 35
43
34
2646
3
27
30
33
3237
36
48
1023
44
31
47
406
38 25
17 9 2 19
4214111624
29 15 28 4939
Easy to implementHard to implement
Low benefit
High benefit
Key
EnquirerApplicantStudentOther
PHARM PGT - PrioritiesEnquirer Applicant Student Other
1. Good web presence
2. Timely response to enquiries
5. Review the look of the website (modernise)
4. Analysis of customer experience
3. Library of resources for all to
access
6. Gather information on
enquiries
7. All required information on one
application form
8. Student responsible for the submission of all
paperwork
10. Ask Registry for an update on
information for English language requirements and
degree equivalents
14. Investigate the possible use of an
electronic signature for Head of School
approval
13. Review of rejection codes to
ensure that they are fit for purpose
20. Set up a central Cardiff University
account for payment by Saudi Arabian
students and arrange transfer of funds to
Germany
12. Clarification of MIPHE
administration and roles from Cardiff /
Germany
11. Amend acceptance form with
admissions requirements for
each course
9. Scanner for supplementary
application forms
17. Students to set up transfer of Cardiff e-mails to personal
accounts: add guidelines to the
student handbook
16. Transparency of dates and deadlines for all courses (flow
diagram)
15. Check SIMS online applications at
least once a week
18. Different letter needed for MIPHE
payment
19. Only send standard thank you
latter to paper applications
21. Finance to invoice students early
and let us know if there are problems before the Board of
Examiners
22. Ability to overwrite student module selection
23. Investigate reasons for large
dropout for MIPHE course
24. Clarify with Registry that all of our students are distance
learning / part-time
25. Contact Jill Bedford in Registry to deal with the various issues discussed to include: What is the
process from the Board of Examiners to
graduation; why the different dates for
undergraduate and postgraduate taught – can the deadline be
changed; clarity of the information to Registry and how they use the
information.
26. Speak to INSRV regarding the rollover
of Blackboard and consistency of
access, with a log of figures where appropriate
27. Better understanding of
process regarding Blackboard modules (Bernadette / Robert)
28. Training to investigate capability
of Blackboard for student feedback (bespoke course)
29. Use of coffee / tea machine and order milk cartons and biscuits from the
catalogue for use on weekend courses
30. IT support for weekend schools
31. Review Cardiff University expenses
policy and procedures
32. Use of Bristol Online Surveys
(BOS) for course evaluations (bespoke training session to be
organised)
33. Speak to the Chair of the Learning
and Teaching Committee regarding Postgraduate Taught
issues
34. Clarification of roles for IT support
(hardware vs. software)
35. Submission of multiple choice
questionnaires via Blackboard; review
the way that coursework is
submitted
36. Interpretation of Turnitin reports by
Course Administrators
(discussion / training)
37. Discussion regarding
moderation / double marking. Markers to
input marks onto spreadsheet
38. Speak to Tony Caffel regarding
CLAWS procedures for spreadsheets and
SIMS
39. Input into SONMS discussion
regarding moderation / 2
degree marking (Away Day)
40. Mapping retrospective and
prospective mitigating
circumstances / interruption of studies
and electronic records of these
41. SIMS allows module mark only
with no breakdown; can this be changed?
42. Use headed notepaper for
Blackboard results in a locked PDF file
43. Calculate cost per student per
course (financial cost and hours of time)
44. Request for monthly financial
reports per course
45. Need for somebody to
undertake financial modelling
46. Know when letters are sent to
students from Registry
47. Dummy student account for checking
Blackboard
48. Opportunities for bespoke / group
training (for example INSRV / REGIS)
49. Consider the use of other resources for
example UniStaff.
MoSCoW
• Words not Numbers• Understand the importance the customer places on each
requirement• Good if you have a tight timescale
Must have – miss one and the project failso Should have – not time critical or have a workaround
Could have – nice to have, can delight the customer o Won’t have – would like to have in the future
Plan
Do
Check
Act
Investigate the current situation & understand fully the nature of the problem to be solved
Develop a future state. Implement short term fixes and long term plans to eliminate root causes
Evaluate the effect of implementation; have actions delivered expected results?
Put plans in place to standardise the process & set further review dates
Plan & Do
Minimise the Plan
Do
Action Plan
What Makes a Good Plan?
• Include short, medium and long term actions• Don’t plan to plan• Be specific
– “Attend ABC conference in November” is far easier to act on than “Research latest thinking on student fees”
• When you attach the resource tell them and help them• Make it visual
– Ensure spread workload– Highlight dependencies and critical path
“Some of our action plans” he said, ” have delivered great results, and improvements to our top line and our bottom line…and some
have just generated meetings and activities and no results.”
The more you do in the workshop the less you need to plan
RAG Reports
Action will not meet target. Requires escalation.
Action will not meet target. Action can be taken internally to bring back in line.
Action on target.
VisualException reportingEscalation of issuesUsed at all levels of a project
Action Plan
Action By When Why/Benefit RAG Status
It is essential to: - list all of steps necessary to implement change - assign people against tasks - regularly review progress against action list
Your Homework
Future State & Implementation Plan
Lets Recap
1. What is a runner, repeater and stranger?
2. What are the two types of Poka Yoke?
3. What ways can you design an aspirational state?
4. What is pain/gain used for?
5. What does MoSCoW stand for?
6. What does RAG stand for?
Useful Websites
• www.cardiff.ac.uk/lean
• www.leanuk.org
• http://www.systemsthinking.co.uk/home.asp
• http://www.bobemiliani.com/
• www.st-andrews.ac.uk/business-improvements
Further Reading
Breaking Through to Flow: Banish Fire Fighting and Produce to Customer Demand by Ian Glenday
Lean Administration 1: How to make business processes transparent by Bodo Wiegand and Philip Franck
Lean Administration 2: How to manage office and service processes by Bodo Wiegand and Katja Nutz
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