Managing for Development Results
- Role of NSO in Monitoring and Evaluation of National
Development –
Dr. Amara SatharasingheDirector
Department of Census and Statistics
The mission of the Department of Census and
Statistics is to collect, compile and disseminate relevant, reliable and up-to-date statistical information required to plan a better future for our country and the people of Sri Lanka, to monitor the progress of development and other socio-economic activities and to measure the impact of various governmental policies on the economy of our country and the living standards of the people.
Mission of the DCS
DCS compiles socio-economic and demographic data for
Sri Lanka
Generally these statistics are compiled at regular intervals
These statistics are useful for planning and monitoring of
national development programmes
This presentation elaborates how the poverty statistics
compiled by the DCS contributed to reduce poverty in Sri
Lanka from 22.7% in 2002 to 15% in 2006
The belief that Sri Lanka would not achieve MDG goal on
poverty has now been proved wrong
Role of DCS in Results Based Management of National Development Programmes
MDG: A set of measures to bring about an improvement in living standards of the people, by the year 2015, considering 1990 as the base year
Endorsed by 189 countries at the UN Millennium General Assembly in Sept 2000
Aim to halve the proportion of people in extreme poverty by 2015
Set targets for reduction in poverty, improvements in health and education, and protection of the environment
Millennium Development Goals
What is poverty?
Poverty is a condition in which
a person or community
is deprived of or lacks
the essentials
for a minimum standard of
well being and life.
Figure 1h: Poverty headcount ratio by district - Sri Lanka
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Gampaha
Colombo
Nuwara Eliya
Puttalam
Anuradhapura
Polonnaruwa
Kurunegala
Matale
Matara
GalleRatnapura
Badulla
Kegalle
Kalutara
Hambantota
Moneragala
Kandy
Total
%
1990/91 2002 Target by 2015
Declined from 26.1% in 1990/91 to 22.7% in 2002
Targets already been achieved in the urban sector
Risen in estate sector households reaching 30% in 2002
Vary considerably across districts
Under these circumstances, it was thought Sri Lanka would not achieve the MDG goal on poverty
But because of decisions taken by the government based on the data compiled by DCS poverty in Sri Lanka dropped to 15% by 2006
Goal 1: Poverty eradicationHeadcount ratio
Measuring poverty: Income poverty indicators
Poverty has been mostly measured and analyzed on the
basis of a set of income poverty indicators : Headcount
ratio
A person is considered poor if his or her consumption or
income level falls below some minimum level (Poverty
Line) necessary to meet basic needs.
This approach is very useful for defining pro-poor
economic policies related to income such as
employment, wages, prices, taxes and subsidies
policies.
Headcount Index and Population Below Poverty Line – 2002
District Headcount index %
Population Below Poverty
Line (Thousands)
Colombo 6 143 Gampaha 11 230 Kaluthara 20 223 Anuradapura 20 156 NuwaraEliya 23 166 Polonnaruwa 24 89 Kandy 25 329 Kurunegala 25 384 Galle 26 269 Matara 27 219 Matale 30 136 Puttlam 31 232 Hambantota 32 179 Kegalle 32 265 Ratnapura 34 364 Badulla 37 303 Monaragala 37 155 All districts 23 3,841
Household Income and
Expenditure Survey is the
Source of data for estimation
of poverty statistics.
Poverty statistics are
disaggregated at district
level and above. Sample size
is not sufficient to estimate
poverty statistics at DS
division level or below.
DCS is therefore, conducted
a special study to compile
poverty statistics at DS
division level
Measuring poverty: Income poverty indicators
Small area estimation of poverty Household expenditure survey data cannot yield precise estimates of
poverty or inequality for small areas such as DS, GN divisions, for which no or few observations are available.
Census data are more plentiful, but typically exclude income and expenditure data.
In recent years, a widespread use is seen, in use of small-area “poverty maps” based on census data, enriched by relationships estimated from household surveys that predict variables not covered by the census.
These methods are used to estimate putatively precise estimates of poverty for areas with sample as small as 25,000 households.
Poverty at DS division level was estimated and findings were mapped
Poverty Mapping:Poverty mapping is a spatial
representation of poverty and it is useful for:
Identifying areas where development lags and where investments in infrastructure and services could have the greatest impact
targeting of public expenditures by identifying areas where the neediest populations are located
State- and local-level decision-making
Increase transparency of public decision-making, by raising awareness of poverty, igniting policy debates at local and national levels, and encouraging broader civil society participation in decision-making
Findings were very reaveling and useful
Areas that should be given priority could be easily seen from the map
Government selected 119 DS divisions to prioritize development programmes
Findings were even used in allocating funds to Divisional Secretariats
DCS went one more step forward to estimate poverty at next administrative level through an exploratory study
The income poverty approach deals with basic
needs whose satisfaction depends mainly on the
income ability of the households to acquire
these needs
There are, other important basic needs whose
satisfaction depends to a large extent on factors
other than income
Ability of a household to satisfy its needs such
as drinking water, sanitation, health, education
depends not only on its ability to pay for them
but also on their availability and accessibility
Measuring poverty: Unsatisfied Basic Needs Approach- An exploratory study -
The main basic needs areas such as education, health, were defined.
For each of the area, a set of indicators was selected.
Statistically all indicators were combined into one index called UBNI.
The UBNI is a proxy continuum measure of the level of poverty.
UBNI was used to rank GN divisions according to the different states of of poverty such as very high, high, medium, low and very low.
Measuring poverty: Construction of UBNI
Indicators used for the construction of UBNI
a) Percentage of households not having improved sanitary facilities (Percentage of Households not having
Water seal toilets.)
b) Percentage of households using kerosene for lighting
c) Percentage of households using firewood for cooking
d) Percentage of housing units not having permanent materials for wall (Materials such as Brick, Cabook,
Cement blocks, etc. were classified as permanent materials.)
e) Percentage of housing units not having permanent materials for floor (Materials such as Cement, Terrazzo,
Tile, Granite, etc. were classified as permanent materials.)
f) Percentage of housing units not having permanent materials for roof (Materials such as Tile, Asbestos,
Concrete, Metal sheets etc were classified as permanent materials.)
g) Percentage of household heads who have not passed G.C.E. A/L or above
h) Percentage of household heads who are not paid employees (Paid employees are those who work for wages/
salaries and who work 52 weeks per year.)
i) Percentage household members aged 20 years and above who have not passed G.C.E. A/L and above
examinations
Scatter diagram: UBNI and Headcount ratio at DS division level
District DS GN
With improved sanitary facilities
Using kerosene
for lighting
Using firewood
for cooking
With permanent materials for wall
With permanent materials for floor
With permanent materials for roof
Passed G.C.E.A/L or above
Percentage of persons
(age 20 and above) passed
G.C.E. A/L and above
who are paid
employees
Unsatisfied basic
needs index
Kandy Minipe Galamuduna 0.00 100.00 100.00 4.65 2.27 13.64 0.00 0.00 14.69 -2.85 Ampara Uhana Lathugala 2.38 100.00 100.00 0.81 6.40 25.30 0.00 0.00 6.35 -2.85 Anuradhapura Nochchiyagama Mahalindawewa 0.00 100.00 100.00 19.35 12.50 23.08 0.00 0.00 17.22 -2.53 Matale Karativu Himbiliyakada 4.00 100.00 100.00 2.00 12.00 72.00 0.00 0.00 7.65 -2.51 Nuwara Eliya Walapane Theripehe 2.83 100.00 100.00 0.98 18.57 76.24 0.00 0.00 1.89 -2.49 Ampara Lahugala Hulannuge West 0.91 90.91 99.09 4.55 14.55 70.89 0.00 0.00 7.27 -2.43 Nuwara Eliya Walapane Bolagandawela 18.89 95.56 98.89 6.98 13.79 60.47 0.00 0.51 2.22 -2.42 Badulla Rideemaliyadda Kandubedda 22.73 96.59 97.73 12.94 4.09 67.57 0.00 0.00 2.27 -2.41 Matale Dambulla Welangolla 8.63 95.43 97.97 24.35 17.62 28.49 0.00 0.22 7.11 -2.41 Siyambalanduwa Pahatha Arawa Pahatha Arawa 16.41 94.53 99.39 6.77 5.85 84.02 0.00 0.13 4.26 -2.38 Ampara Uhana Kahatagasyaya 0.75 94.74 98.50 16.15 16.28 53.62 0.00 0.00 11.28 -2.38 Puttalam Kalpitiya Dachbe 5.23 96.31 85.54 10.39 33.55 7.57 0.00 0.00 15.38 -2.36 Kurunegala Ganewatta Pothuvila 13.44 90.98 97.50 25.49 20.78 22.44 0.38 0.18 4.99 -2.35 Polonnaruwa Dimbulagala Maldeniya 5.34 96.60 98.06 21.43 14.07 68.06 0.00 0.00 2.43 -2.35 Kurunegala Polpithigama Rekevula 14.03 84.16 98.64 22.02 22.58 23.26 0.00 0.00 1.36 -2.34
GN divisions with highest values for UBNI (Most poor GN divisions)
Most poor 15 GN divisions as measured by UBNI
District DS GN
With improved sanitary facilities
Using kerosene
for lighting
Using firewood
for cooking
With permanent materials for wall
With permanent materials for floor
With permanent materials for roof
Passed G.C.E.A/L or above
Percentage of persons
(age 20 and above)
passed G.C.E.
A/L and above
who are paid
employees
Unsatisfied basic needs index
Colombo Sri Jayawardanapura Kotte Nawala East 89.24 1.74 9.77 97.16 99.21 96.75 14.62 9.35 44.77 3.87 Colombo Kaduwela Battaramulla South 73.72 3.78 10.78 97.59 99.60 96.38 14.37 10.12 53.50 3.97 Colombo Dehiwala Jayathilaka 75.23 12.84 10.89 85.43 99.53 94.45 13.29 11.51 47.22 4.02 Colombo Dutugemunu Dutugemunu 86.28 1.36 8.27 98.10 99.65 97.22 14.69 10.48 47.67 4.08 Colombo Sri Jayawardanapura Kotte Rajagiriya 76.98 2.18 8.99 93.48 98.87 91.63 17.30 9.08 39.92 4.17 Colombo Maharagama Wijerama 84.16 1.86 16.77 95.39 98.76 94.49 15.06 11.54 40.37 4.19 Colombo Thimbirigasyaya Borella South 87.80 4.88 9.42 98.08 98.81 95.60 16.99 9.64 44.83 4.21 Colombo Sri Jayawardanapura Kotte Nawala West 87.82 3.04 11.46 97.41 99.17 96.65 16.65 10.32 45.39 4.26 Colombo Thimbirigasyaya Thimbirigasyaya 80.94 6.96 5.40 97.12 99.55 91.82 16.76 9.83 54.22 4.27 Colombo Dehiwala Dehiwala West 87.82 3.05 4.68 96.82 99.36 99.03 15.97 10.90 43.83 4.34 Colombo Sri Jayawardanapura Kotte Nugegoda West 85.75 1.66 9.62 98.08 99.23 96.68 16.57 10.77 43.85 4.34 Colombo Thimbirigasyaya Milagiriya 84.55 3.35 3.18 96.98 98.03 96.00 19.02 11.57 38.44 4.83 Colombo Thimbirigasyaya Havelock Town 86.19 1.99 3.44 99.33 99.62 99.03 20.86 12.59 39.57 5.23 Colombo Thimbirigasyaya Bambalapitiya 89.29 1.63 2.89 98.54 98.89 99.33 22.77 12.66 44.46 5.50 Colombo Kurunduwatta Kurunduwatta 81.74 10.48 4.69 94.56 99.10 89.86 26.10 13.78 47.95 6.06
GN divisions with lowest values for UBNI (Least poor GN divisions)
Least poor 15 GN divisions as measured by UBNI
Red tones indicate high-poverty areas andGreen tones are low or moderate poverty areas
Colombo District
Poverty levels of DS (Headcount Ratio) and GN divisions (UBNI)
Badulla
Red tones indicate high-poverty areas andGreen tones are low or moderate poverty areas
Poverty levels of DS (Headcount Ratio) and GN divisions (UBNI)
Poverty statistics at lower level of administrative units
were required for planning development programmes
DCS had been compiling poverty statistics only at higher
levels of administrative divisions
DCS conducted two special studies to compile poverty
statistics at lower levels administrative divisions
responding to the data needs
Government directly used the findings of these studies
and gave priority to develop most deprived areas
Most probably this may have indirectly contributed to
reduce poverty in Sri Lanka
Summaray
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