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MIG BANK 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MARKET S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD SHORT 2 1.4420 1.3660/1.3410 (Entered on 06/07/2011) 1.4305GBP/USD Sell limit 3 1.5910 1.5810/1.5550/1.5345 1.6010USD/JPY Await fresh signal.USD/CHF Mildly bearish bias while under 0.8521.USD/CAD Await Buy Trade Setup (Neutral).AUD/USD SHORT 3 1.0630 1.0390/1.0205/0.9700 (Entered on 11/07/2011) 1.0780GBP/JPY Sell limit 3 128.00 127.00/124.65/122.36 129.00EUR/JPY SHORT 1 117.70 105.44 (Entered on 04/07/2011) 115.70EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8900 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285 0.9005EUR/CHF SHORT 1 1.1805 1.1000 (Entered on 11/07/2011) 1.1805GOLD Await fresh signal.SILVER Await fresh signal.
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT12 July, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit w ill be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry
point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in mor e profit. All orders are valid until the next report is
published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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Breaks out from major pattern.
Hit first objective at 1.3970. Stop left at 1.4305 for now. EUR/USD has resumed its bearish activity and has broken out of the all-
important triangle pattern consolidation.
The move follows last Fridays worse-than-expected NFP figures whichparadoxically pushed the US dollar higher, as market sentiment refocused
back onto risk aversion and a flight to traditional quality/safe haven assets.
Our short position favours sustained weakness to unlock an acceleratedimpulsive (wave 3) into 1.3670 (61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 uptrend). Only a
sustained close above the Trichet high at 1.4653 and most importantly
1.4711/30 will lead us to re-evaluate.
Inversely, the US dollar index has broken above 76.36 (23rd May high), toconfirm a multi-month w-shaped base pattern for an extension into 7701
and 78.03 (50%/61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 Decline). Further upside scope is also
being supported by increased long positions on our COT liquidity, which
has been positive for the last 6 weeks.
SPECIAL REPORT :EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 2 at 1.4420, Objs: 1.3660/1.3410, Stop: 1.4305
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Please select link: REPORT
VIDEO
EUR/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfmailto:[email protected]8/6/2019 MIGBANK Daily Technical Analysis Report - 12/7/2011
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Consolidation resolves lower.
GBP/USD has relapsed after forming a lower high at 1.6442. Losses haveclearly broken under weekly channel support. Coupled with the push
under 1.6058, weakens the outlook further.
The period of consolidation that we noted yesterday in the daily timeframehas since broken lower, turning the outlook decidedly negative in both the
short and longer-term timeframes.
A minor squeeze higher is now sought for the creation of a lower high anda continuation of weakness.
Further weakness has the potential to initially target 1.5345 over comingsessions.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 1.5910, Objs: 1.5810/1.5550/1.5345, Stop: 1.6010.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Another failed breakout.
Long stopped. USD/JPY has suffered yet another failed breakout above our second
trigger point at 81.40 (multi-week triangle pattern). We remain bullish in
the medium to long-term, but are switching to a more cautious footing,
watching for a sustained resumption of the potentially new structural bull-
cycle.
To signal an impulsive move higher, we still need a sustained close abovestrategic levels at 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post
Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).
The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Trade dominated by movements in EUR/CHF.
USD/CHF continues to trade within the confines of a daily/weekly wedge,after failing to gain momentum last week following the minor beak over
wedge resistance.
Movements in USD/CHF are being driven by the return to weakness seenin EUR/CHF due to the widening of periphery government bond spreads
versus bunds. This now warns of a return to, and potential break of,
wedge resistance.
We look for a break back over 0.8521 before initiating longs, with a bias inthe interim for a possible re-test of weekly wedge support.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Mildly bearish bias while under 0.8521.
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHFUSD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Unwinding from oversold conditions.
USD/CAD is unwinding from oversold conditions, amidst key support near0.9624/05 (61.8%/66% retrace of the April uptrend). Corrective activity was
originally triggered after the rates expanding pattern initially failed at key
resistance into 0.9906-0.9915 (38.2% Fib-Sept 2010 decline & 200 DMA).
Meantime, our medium/long-term perspective has been neutralised by afailed breakout from the multi-month wedge pattern.
Indeed the bulls must recapture 0.9913/15 (27th June swing high/38.2%Fib), to achieve a sustainable recovery into 0.9968 (17th March high) and
1.0000 (parity level).
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Trade Setup (Neutral).
USD/CAD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Reactive bounce still weighed by exhaustion signal.
AUD/USDs reactive bounce from key support at 1.0443 (TDST line), is stillweighed down by a DeMark exhaustion signal last seen at the May peak.
We are monitoring the bearish signal and have opened a short position.
Keep alert to the fact that our DeMark indicator has also flaggedexhaustion sell signals across both weekly and daily timeframes. Meantime,
our downside trigger level remains at 1.0443 (TDST line), to unlock
extended downside scope into 1.0359 (50% Fib), then 1.0205 and 0.9990.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar,after its recovery failed into key resistance at 1.3169 (61.8% Fib). The pair
is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath this
level.
The Aussie dollar has also weakend against the Japanese yen, aftertriggering a daily reversal pattern. The bearish signal is now pushing back
lower into the multi-week triangle pattern. We continue to favour a
potential downside breakout, which would signal further risk aversion in
the financial community.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 3: 1.0630, Obj: 1.0390/1.0205/0.9700. Stop: 1.0780
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Next targets daily channel support.
GBP/JPY has tested below the 61.8% retrace of the 122.36-140.03 riseseen earlier in the year.
This now alters the near-term structure in favour of a relapse towards122.36, thus also greatly weakening the longer-term recovery structure
that we had previously expected.
Focus remains on the daily bear channel that has been in place for the lastthree months.
A lower high is now potentially in place at 130.85 for a continuation ofnear-term weakness.
Yesterdays push back under 128.17 suggests a return to the daily channelsupport currently at 124.65.
With this in mind a lower high is now sought.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 128.00, Objs: 127.00/124.65/122.36, Stop: 129.00
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Breaks under the 200 DMA and the platform near 113.42/50.
Stop for the final unit moved to 115.70. Final objective moved to 105.44. EUR/JPY has likely completed an extended recovery from the 2010 low at
105.44.
Yesterday saw a break under the platform near 113.42/50 which alsoconstituted a push under the 200 day moving average
The structure present since 117.90 now warns of the potential for a shallowretrace and a further extension lower back towards 105.44. This is
bolstered by the continuing widening of periphery spreads versus bunds.
We also note that yesterdays sharp fall has also pushed under the 50 weekmoving average. This turns the longer-term outlook negative again.
Although further losses are anticipated we are lowering our stop on ourfinal short unit to 115.70 to protect a portion of the profit already
generated.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 1 at 117.70, Obj: 105.44, Stop: 115.70.
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPY
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Under 0.8848 weakens near-term bullish structure.
Long stopped. Looking to sell. EUR/GBP has suffered in the same manner as other EUR crosses given the
stresses experienced in the periphery bond markets.
With this in mind, the break higher that occurred at the beginning of themonth to 0.9084 may mark the end of the recovery structure seen since
0.8285, with a return to the 200 day moving average now favoured. This
currently lies near 0.8665.
It is thus our strategy to wait for a bounce higher to evolve for the creationof a lower high and the resumption of weakness.
A break under 0.8611 is required to break down the current longer-termbullish structure.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8900, Objs: 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285, Stop: 0.9005.EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBPEUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Under 1.1806 negates multiple bullish signals.
First and second objectives met. Stop left at 1.1805 and final objectivemoved to 1.1000.
EUR/CHF had exhibited a number of bullish reversal signals in differenttimeframes. All of these were negated yesterday with the push under
1.1806.
Given the continued upside pressure in periphery spreads versus bunds,we continue to view the downside as being vulnerable.
With this in mind we next target 1.1565 and then potentially lower towards1.1000.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Short 1 at 1.1805, Obj: 1.1000, Stop: 1.1805.
EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Unwinding recent weakness within a volatile range.
Short stopped. Gold is now unwinding its recent fall, which still remains within a larger
volatile range. We continue to expect this counter reaction to be limited
and likely to resume the already broad weakness playing out in Gold
priced in other key rates, such as Euro, Swiss franc, and commodity driven
rates such as the Aussie dollar & South African rand.
The larger corrective move on Gold in US dollar terms, remains pressuredby a weekly DeMark exhaustion signal, which was followed by a bearish
engulfing reversal from a multi-year bull-channel.
Bears target 1474.69 (38.2% Fib) and 1442.92 (50% Fib), with overshootrisk into 1422.30/1411.13 (200-day MA/61.8% Fib).
It is also worth continuing to monitor Golds COT liquidity readings whichis weakening back into a key structural level. Keep in mind that a sustained
break of this area would threaten 1.5 years of sizeable long gold positions.
Bulls need to sustain gains above 1553.65 (06 June high), in order to offera recapture of the all-time high at 1577.57. Only a close above there would
confirm a resumption of the major uptrend into the next psychological
glass-ceiling at 1600.00.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
GOLD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
Gold daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Resistance around 38.80 caps.
Silver remains capped beneath resistance around 38.80 and continues tofavour a resumption lower. (Note, the prior correction had fallen just over
30% in only 5 days, which may have signalled a peak in global risk
appetite).
We continue to look for potential moves into 32.3479/32.3125 (38.2% Fib-1999 bull market/12th May swing low), offering a downside extension into
31.7819 (24th Feb low) and 30.0000 (old psychological level).
Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and wouldstill mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.
We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, whichis currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.
Bulls need to push back above 38.8475 (26th May high), then 39.4825(11th May high), in order to revive a promising recovery into 40.0000 (old
psychological level).
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await signal.
SILVER
Spot Silver hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Spot Silver daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have
or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or
distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or
recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect
any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by
MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and
are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no
representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and
opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In
particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other
advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made
solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a
qualified expert before making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be
reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,
whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and
complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or
recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect
any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by
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