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THE CLOUD, THE EXAFLOOD,AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS
Michael R. Nelson
Visiting Professor, Internet StudiesCommunication, Culture and Technology ProgramGeorgetown [email protected]
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THE CLOUD, THE EXAFLOOD,AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS
Michael R. Nelson
Visiting Professor, Internet StudiesCommunication, Culture and Technology ProgramGeorgetown [email protected]: MikeNelson
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My Background
B.S., geology, Caltech
Ph.D., geophysics, MIT
1988 -- Congressional Science Fellow
4 years as Senator Gore's science advisor
4 years as IT policy guru at White House
1998-1999 -- Technologist at FCC
9+ years as IBM’s Director, Internet Tech.
Teaching at Georgetown since January, 2008
Part of Obama campaign’s tech policy team
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To visit Georgetown’s Qatar campus
To learn more about the development of the
Internet and new media in the Gulf region To share a few insights about the future
Why I’m here
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To visit Georgetown’s Qatar campus
To learn more about the development of the
Internet and new media in the Gulf region To share a few insights about the future
What’s Shaping the Internet
How to Predict the Future(s) E-government 2.0
Why I’m here
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In Washington, Words Matter
The right words can:
Define an issue
Kill a project Stir emotions
Mobilize people
Examples:
Obama: “Change”
Estate tax > “Death tax”
Strategic Defense Initiative > “Star Wars”
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In Washington, Numbers Matter
It helps to have hundreds of pages of data
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In Washington, Numbers Matter
It helps to have hundreds of pages of data
But to make a point, you need two good,memorable “factoids”
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In Washington, Numbers Matter
It helps to have hundreds of pages of data
But to make a point, you need two good,memorable “factoids”
(preferably true)
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A personal anecdote is worth a dozen briefingpapers—especially if other people (and the
media) start repeating it.
In Washington, Stories Matter
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To share a few key words and concepts aboutCloud computing
To share some useful numbers To tell a few stories
To give you some additional reading
My Goals Today
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PEOPLE
First Word
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•Hardware
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•Hardware
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•Hardware
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•Hardware
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•Hardware•Software
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•Hardware•Software•People
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•Hardware•Software•Organizations •People
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•Hardwar•Software•Organizations •People
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.
•Software•Organizations •People
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•Softwar•Organizations •People
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•Organizations •People
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VISION
Second Word
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“Vision without action is a daydream.”
Japanese proverb
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“Vision without action is a daydream.
Action without vision is a nightmare.”
Japanese proverb
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“Vision without action is a daydream.
Action without vision is a nightmare.”
(And a very good way to waste lots of money.)
Japanese proverb
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VISION as Elevator Pitch
We are entering the third phase of the Internet As profound as the World Wide Web
The next 2-3 years will define the Next Generation Internet
Standards and business practices are shaping the Net as
much—or more—than law and regulation
The Internet revolution is less than 15% complete
Number of users
Total bandwidth
Total amount of content Number of devices
Number of applications
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“CHEAP REVOLUTION”
Coined by Rich Karlgaard , Forbes, April 2003
Cheap, commodity hardware
Open source software (e.g. Linux)
Cloud computing
Do-it-yourself tech supportCOST SAVINGS OF 90 PERCENT
Vision in a buzz phrase
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CLOUD
Third Word
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Application Service Provider
Grid
Distributed Computing
Etc.
Words that Didn’t Work
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Examples of Cloud Computing
Academic grids as a prototype of the cloud
Amazon, Google, Microsoft building huge data
centers and offering online apps
Amazon’s Elastic Compute CloudGmail – “the entry drug for cloud users”
Flickr, YouTube
Online back-upSalesForce.com
Akamai delivers 15-20 percent of Internet traffic
BOINC grids more powerful than supercomputers
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Akamai – Visualizing the Internet
http://www.akamai.com/html/technology/visualizing_akamai.html
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GAME CHANGER
Fourth Word
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Cloud Computing
Why it matters:
This is the 3rd phase of the Internet
This is the 3rd phase of COMPUTING
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The Third Phase of the Internet
1969 1980 1990 2000 2010
Capability
Phase 1 - Communicating
Phase 2 - Content
Phase 3
Collaboration
?
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“The Big Switch” by Nicholas Carr
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Gartner Says Cloud Computing Will Be AsInfluential As E-business
Special Report Examines the Realities and Risks of Cloud Computing (June 26, 2008)
This is a VERY big deal
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MANY-TO-MANY
Fifth Word
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Phase One – Stand Alone Computer
App. Data
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Phase Two – The Web
Web sites
DataApp.
Browser
PC
Data
Data
Data
Data
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Phase Three – The Cloud
Data
DataData
DataApp.
App.App.
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THINGS
Sixth Word
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The Internet of Things
Why it matters:
100 billion devices, not just 1.4 billion PCs
Impacts?
Increased need for ubiquitous wireless
A flood of new data from sensors, etc.New uses for the Cloud
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The Cloud + The Internet of Things
Data
DataData
DataApp.
App.App.
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The Cloud + The Internet of Things
Data
DataData
DataApp.
App.App.
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The Cloud + The Internet of Things
Data
DataData
DataApp.
App.App.
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EXAFLOOD
Seventh word
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Estimating the Exaflood(Swanson and Gilder, 2008)
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What’s in the Exaflood?
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COLLABORATION
Eighth Word
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Example: Social Media
Facebook, Twitter becoming platforms forcommunication and collaboration
replacing e-mailspurring innovation
crowdsourcing
sorting the Exaflood
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Social Media Matters
It got Obama elected!!
Our first Internet President“How Obama REALLY did it,” Sept.-Oct.
2008 issue of MIT’s Technology Review
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Two models of management
1960s Military Model Community organizing
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CONSUMERIZATION
Ninth Word
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Doug Neal, CSC Leading Edge Forum:
From Consumerization to the Cloud – the
accelerating rate of IT change30 November 2009
Consumerization of the Workplace
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Your employees want to use the best tools
Google apps
They’re work life and family life are merging
Calendars
Instant messaging
Video, Skype
They want reliability, portability, the Cloud
Consumerization of the Workplace
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PREDICTIONS
Tenth Word
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Within 5 years, 80% of all computing
and storage done worldwide could
happen “in the cloud”
BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1
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Within 5 years, 80% of all computing
and storage done worldwide could
happen “in the cloud”
(But it might take 10 years)
BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1
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Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices
and sensors could be connected to
the Net
BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #2
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Within 10 years, 100 BILLION devices
and sensors will be connected to
the Net
Not-quite-so-audacious Prediction #2
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Technical Agreement and adoption of key standards
IPv6, DNSsec, IPsec, Grid standards
Business practices
Cooperation around open standards vs.proprietary lock-in; open source software
Culture
Users have to learn to “trust the cloud”
CIOs and their teams have to adapt to new roles
Policy
Why Not?
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POLICY
Eleventh Word
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The rate-limiting step
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HardwareSoftwareOrganizations People
POLICY - The rate-limiting step
Policy
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GOVERNMENTS’ FIRST CHALLENGE
How to be an early adopter of new technologies?
(such as Cloud computing, social media, sensors)
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GOVERNMENTS’ FIRST CHALLENGE
How to be an early adopter of new technologies ?
(such as Cloud computing, social media, sensors)
To do list:
Fix procurement
Move to open standards, Avoid lock-in
Explore open source software Address security
Change culture and reorganize
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Privacy
Search warrants, wiretapping in the Cloud?
Transparency
Online copyright
Liability for cloud service providers
Who’s responsible for Illegal activities?
International data flows
Competition policy
Updating policies for the Cloud
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1. The Clouds Scenario
2. The Cloudy Skies Scenario
3. The Blue Skies Scenario
Three Possible Futures
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The Clouds Scenario
Different, distinct,
proprietary clouds
Non-interoperable
standards
The cable television
network business
model; bottlenecksand monopolies
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The Cloudy Skies Scenario
Distinct clouds
Interconnected
Cloud applications
aren’t interoperable
Little commonmiddleware (e.g. no
single sign-on) Lots of missed
opportunities
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Blue Skies Scenario
A “cloud of clouds” like
the network of networks
Truly interoperable
clouds services “Mix and match”
Common middleware
Seamless Almost infinite
opportunities
Sky’s the Limit!!
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Conclusions
The Internet Revolution is less than 15%complete
The Internet Revolution will be as
disruptive as the printing press, but: Much faster
Totally global
More unpredictable When in doubt, empower the user!
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