-Quantitative and qualitative assessment of LCS using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)-
Methodologies to Estimate Pathways
Mikiko KainumaNational Institute for Environmental Studies
Pathways toward low carbon societies in Asia by 2050 and contributions of Japan to their realization
13 November 2013
COP19 Side Event at Japan Pavilion
http://2050.nies.go.jp/COP/COP19
AIM (Asia‐Pacific Integrated Model): A model for quantified LCS assessment
• AIM is an integrated assessment model to assess mitigation options to reduce GHG emissions and impact/adaptation to avoid severe climate change damages
• Developed since 1990• First set of models focusing on Asia‐Pacific region to assess the strategies of low carbon development plan quantitatively
2
Examples of Brochures introducing Asian Low Carbon ScenariosCommunication and feedbacks of LCS study to real world
2009/11
2012/02
2011/10
2011/03
2010/10
2007/05 2009/10 2009/112009/10
2013/052009/08,2012/11
2011/09,2012/112009/10,2012/02 2010/02,2012/09 2010/10,2012/10
3
2013/03 2013/07 2013/10
2013/10
2010/11
2013/05
ShigaJapan
ShigaJapan
KyotoJapan
JilinChina
GuangzhouChina
India
AhmedabadIndia
BhopalIndia ThailandIndonesia
IskandarMalaysia
MalaysiaCyberjayaMalaysia
Vietnam Bangladesh
Korea
IskandarMalaysia
Khon KaenThailandCambodia
PutrajayaMalaysia
PutrajayaMalaysia
http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/
Methodology for LCS Action Plan
• Identify emission reduction potentials and its co-benefit
• Estimate the cost of policy measures
• Provide incentives for use of innovative technologies
• Prioritize investments
• Promote behavioral and lifestyle changes
• Monitor performance
Information and Data Collection• Identification of data sources • preliminary data formation
Synthesis and Preliminary Analysis• Information collection for present practices and policies
• Data compilation
Modeling and Analysis• Development of storylines• Quantification scenarios
Developing LCS Action Plan• Quantification of LCS action plans• Development of roadmaps
Process Objectives/Outputs
B
A
Modeling
Structure of AIM model
Impact/Adaptation Model
Emission Model
【Country】
【Global】
【sequentialdynamics】
【dynamicoptimization】
【Local/City】
Agriculture
Water
Human health
Simple Climate Model
Other Models
future society
Population Transportation Residential
GHG emissions
temperature
【Global】 【National/Local】
feedback
AIM/Impact[Policy]
Burden share Stock‐flow
mid‐term target
IPCC/WG3
IPCC/WG2
IPCC/integrated scenario
carbon tax
long‐term vision
Accounting adaptation
low carbon scenario
Mitigation Target, Climate Policy, Capacity building, ... What are assessed and how?
Economic model
Enduse model
Account model
AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) is an integrated assessment model to assess mitigation options to reduce GHG emissions and impact/adaptation to avoid severeclimate change damages.
5
ExSSEnduse
CGE
Key Features and Assumptions Strengths Weaknesses
・ Choice of the most efficient mix of technologies to deliver services
・ In case of energy sector, provide a comprehensive, coherent picture of the energy system (from primary energy to final energy and energy services use)
・ Neglect feedback effects of emission reduction policies on the rest of the economy
・ Rich collection of related data, abundant in detail on various technologies and countermeasures
・ Do not capture demand-price interactions・ Useful for assessing and
identifying mitigation and efficiency potentials ・ Undervalue the
transaction costs of mitigation policies
・ Perfect foresight· simulates perfect competition among technologies and energies
・ Enable assessment of supply and demand-oriented policies to curb GHG emissions
・ Assume that markets react perfectly to price signals
•“Energy technology” refers to a device that provides a useful service by consuming energy
• “Energy service” refers to a measurable need that must be satisfied.
Structure of the AIM/End‐Use Model
Outputs
Inputs
Characteristics of Bottom‐up (sector optimization) modelse.g. AIM/Enduse, AIM/AFOLU
From 1995, Japan Ministry of Environment used this model almost all times to evaluate the national reduction targets of Japan. Also, the case of China study conducted by Energy Research Institute, NDRC, PRC, and the National Thailand study by Thammasat University, Thailand caused hot, but positive discussions on Low Carbon Development within the nations.
6
• As for the investment amount for global warming, half of the overall investment amount will be collected by 2020 and an amount equal to the investment amount will be collected by 2030 based on energy expenses that can be saved through technologies introduced.
<Low-carbon investment amount and energy reduction expense>
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Energy saving investment through
2020
Volume of reduction from energy saving technologies
Energy reduction expense from energy saving investment= approx. 50 trillion yen(25% reduction)
In the case of device with 10 year lifespan
Energy reduction expense from energy saving investment= approx. 49 trillion yen(25% reduction)
-36 -43 -50
-35 -42 -49
58 78 96
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
25% reduction
Additional investment(’11 – ’20 total)
Energy reduction expense(’11 – ’20 total)Energy reduction expense(’21 – ’30 total)
Japanese Case StudyRelationship between low-carbon investment
and energy reduction expense
20% reduction
15% reduction
Cos
t (Tr
illio
n Ye
n)
GHG Emissions in 2050
(Peak CO2)
GHG Mitigation by 2050
(Peak CO2)
48.3%
8SIIT-TU
0100200300400500600700800
2005 2050BAU 2050LCPC
O2
Em
issi
ons (
Mt-
CO
2)Scenario
CommercialResidentialTransportIndustrial
0 100 200 300
Green Industry
Effective transport
Comfortable Houses
Smart Buildings
21178
1452
Mitigation of CO2 (Mt-CO2)
Miti
gatio
n ac
tion
Mitigation
Source: Bundit Limmeechokchai et al., 2013
Thailand Case Study
The covered sectors of the analysis are: Energy, AFOLU, Industrial and waste sectors.
Three national level quantification models/tools are expected to use. They are:
• Extended Snapshot model (ExSS) and AFOLU-A: To design LCS vision and quantify the GHG reduction potentials;
• Bottom-up type end-use model (AIM/enduse, AFOLU-B): To identify effective technologies and necessary financial policies for Low Carbon Growth;
• CGE model (AIM/CGE[basic]): To assess the macroeconomic impacts of Low Carbon Growth policies
SECTORS AND MODELSIndonesia Case Study
Source: Rizaldi Boer, 2013
020406080100120140160180200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cost[m
il.US$/year]
Mitigation cost
AGFPRWMPFFENRRILFPRSSRFSPLRPSR
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mitigatio
n po
tential [MtCO2/year]
Mitigation potentialAGFPRWMPFFENRRILFPRSSRFSPLRPSR
020406080100120140160180200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cost[m
il.US$/year]
Mitigation cost RAN15RAN14RAN13RAN12RAN11RAN10RAN9RAN8RAN7RAN6RAN5RAN4RAN3RAN2RAN1
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mitigatio
n po
tential [MtCO2/year]
Mitigation potential RAN15RAN14RAN13RAN12RAN11RAN10RAN9RAN8RAN7RAN6RAN5RAN4RAN3RAN2RAN1
Mitigation potential & cost land use change
180 million US$/year in 2020750 million US$ in 10 years
672MtCO2/year in 20203.7GtCO2 in 10 years
Indonesia Case Study
Source: Rizaldi Boer, 2013
Characteristics of Top‐down (Computable General Equilibrium) modelsAIM/CGE
Key Features and
AssumptionsStrengths Weaknesses
・ Markets and the economy, as a whole, reach equilibrium, through price adjustments
・Able to estimate economy-wide costs of reduction policies, including trade effects
・ Poor description of energy end uses and technologies
・ Assume markets always work efficiently
・ Markets work efficiently (no market barriers, hidden costs or information barriers)
・Describes the details of economic interactions among sectors
・ Cannot well reflect short-run economic adjustment costs
・ Able to analyze long-term resource allocation
・Able to assess long-term effects of GHG abatement policies on structural change in a coherent macro-setting
・ Have a weak statistical basis (usually models are calibrated on a single-year basis)
output matrix
energy balance table(output)
energy balance table(input)
input matrix
ener
gyno
n-en
ergy
production sector final demand sector
value
adde
den
ergy
non
ener
gy
output coefficienton energy
production and cost
production and income
comm
odity
supp
lyco
mmod
ity de
mand
fixed capital stockmatrix
production social
cap.
good
s
capital stock
laborcapital
comp
ensa
tion
of ca
p. go
ods
final
cons
inves
tmen
t
impo
rt&ex
port
input coefficienton non-energy
output coefficienton non-energy
capital profilein sector
SNA
tech&preference
IO tablein 2000
fixed capitalformation
matrix in 2000
tech
tech V matrixin 2000
economicgrowth
input data in2000 assumption balance condition
intermediatedemand
ext. trnsact.account
account ofinc. & expnd.
Input coefficient on energy
energy balancetable in 2000
①
①
②
②
③
④
⑤
⑥
⑥
⑥
⑦
⑧
⑩①
①
⑪
⑦
⑩
⑪
⑨
②
tech
tech
output
CO2⑫ ⑫
Macroeconomic module
CGE module
① production function
② commodity market③ capital market④ labor market⑤ calculation of GDE⑥ expenditure and
income in production sector
⑦ expenditure and income in household and government
⑧ assumption of import and export
⑨ fixed capital stock matrix
⑩ investment goods market
⑪ capital stock⑫ CO2 emissions
Framework of AIM/CGE
Applied very often to evaluate national macro-economic impacts by GHG reduction targets of Japan. Also, we applied this model to many Asian countries, such as China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippine, Vietnam, Taiwan and Korea.
There is potential to reduce GHG emissions by 69% compared to the reference case in AsiaG
HG
em
issi
ons
(GtC
O2e
/yea
r)
Action1: Urban TransportAction2: Interregional TransportAction3: Resources & MaterialsAction4: BuildingsAction5: BiomassAction6: Energy SystemAction7: Agriculture and LivestockAction8: Forest & LanduseOthers (CH4 and N2O emissions from other than agriculture and livestock
Reductions by
Asia (LCS)
• The global emissions will become 1.8 times larger compared to the 2005 level and emissions in Asia will be doubled under the reference scenario.
• It is feasible to reduce GHG emissions in Asia by 69% by introducing ten actions and Others (CH4 and N2O emissions from other than agriculture and livestock) appropriately compared to the reference scenario in 2050.
GHG Emissions in
the world (LCS)the world (Reference)
Structured Compact City
Mainstreaming trains and water transportation
Technology and finance to facilitate achievement of LCS
Transparent and Fair Governance that Supports LCS Asia
Urban Transport
Interregional Transport
Resources & Materials
Buildings
Biomass
Energy System
Agriculture & Livestock
Technology & Finance
Governance
Spread of high yields and low emission agricultural technologies
Smart material use that realizes the full potential of resources
Low carbon energy system with local resources
Smart buildings that utilize natural systems
Local production and local consumption of biomass
Forest & Landuse
Sustainable forest management
Ten Actions toward Low Carbon Asia are examined
Action 1
Action 2
Action 3
Action 4
Action 5
Action 6
Action 7
Action 8
Action 9
Action 10
Actions 1 & 2: TransportAction 1: Hierarchically Connected Compact Cities Compact cities with well-connected hierarchical urban centers A seamless and hierarchical transport system
Action 2: Mainstreaming Rail and Water in Interregional Transport• Formulation of industrial
corridors using a low carbon transport system
• Establishment tof an intermodal transport system incorporating rail and water
• Reduction of CO2 emissions from vehicles and aircraft
Low carbon vehicles with efficient road-traffic systems
Hierarchically Connected Compact City
Central Business District
Action 3:Smart Ways to Use Material that Realize the Full Potential of Resources
Production that dramatically reduces the use of resources Use of products in ways that extend their lifespan Development of systems for the reuse of resources
Consumption of Iron and steel
Lower per capita stock (8 t/cap), the saturation level of France and the UK, would decrease the steel demand in China significantly to the lower level of 0.3 Gt in 2050
Source: Mûller and Wang, 2009
Transition to low carbon emissions and low‐resource consumption societies, while simultaneously improving the economic standards of living is vital for sustainabledevelopment. Asia has many opportunities to realize an LCS by leapfrogging.
Key MessagesAchieving 2oC target is feasible
If all the actions proposed here are applied appropriately, 69% of the emissions in the Reference scenario can be reduced in Asia in 2050. This is in line with a global pathway with the 2oC target.
Early actions are neededWhatever pathways are followed, GHG emissions should be reduced to zero in the long run to keep the climate at the corresponding level. More the actions are delayed, larger the reduction rates become and higher the stabilization level will be.GHG emissions need to be below zero to lower temperature. To realize negative emissions is very tough.
Leapfrogging development in Asia leads to a Low Carbon Society
There is a danger that socio-ecosystem will not be recovered even if GHG concentrations are returned to the lower level.
Thank you very much!
The Low-Carbon Asia Research project is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-6) of the Ministry of Environment, Japan
http://2050.nies.go.jp/COP/COP19
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