Dynamic Sustainabilities:Taking complexity and uncertainty seriously in

environment and developmentMelissa Leach

ESRC STEPS Centre, Institute of Development Studies, Sussex

UKCDS WorkshopMay 12 2011

• Complex dynamics and uncertainties in development challenges involving environment, food, health, water (epidemics, seeds and drought, water management, low carbon energy)

• A heuristic - the STEPS Centre’s pathways approach to understanding and acting on ‘dynamic sustainabilities’

• Complexity sciences and beyond, blending natural and social science approaches

Contradictions

• Growing recognition (in research and everyday life) of complexity, dynamism and uncertainties

• Growing recognition of diverse ways of knowing, values, perspectives, priorities

• Growing search for technical-managerial solutions premised on a far more static, consensual view of the world – solvable problems, achievable stability, controllable risks

……A mismatch - cycles of ‘failure’ as dynamics undermine assumptions of stability; emerging backlashes from nature, politics; mires of disagreement; those who are already vulnerable and marginal often lose out

Dynamic systems thinking in/for development – an extended family of concepts and approaches

• Complexity science (interdependence, co-evolution and inter-coupling; feedbacks: non-linear dynamics; context-dependence; emergent properties; self-organisation)

• Resilience thinking and sustainability science (shocks and stresses, disturbance and response, phase shifts, attractors)

• New perspectives in ecology (non-equilibrium dynamics, multiple stable states)

• Dynamics of technological change (socio-technical regimes, lock-in, contingency, niches, transitions)

• Organizations and management responses in dynamic settings (complexity as experienced and engaged in as well as described, soft systems, reflective practitioners, organizational learning)

Complex, dynamic system

Interacting social, ecological, technical,

politicalelements

A dynamic systems heuristic

Reflective scope:

Environment

Inchoate ‘reality’Complexity science seeks comprehensively to reflect a full range and diversity of - elements, - linkages and - dynamics in a system and its environment

And might describe pathways:Particular directions in which system elements co-evolve over time (non-linear, context-dependent, etc)

Change, development….

Framings: Different ways of understanding/representing complex system dynamics and change

Multiple possible pathways to different sustainabilities (which functions and values, for whom)

Normative agendas (What is ‘good change’? which pathways, to where? )

Reflexive attention to framings/narratives of different actors/researchers in development

Integrating a reflexive understanding:Dimensions of framingNot just:- Scale- Boundaries- Key elements and complex interrelationships- Dynamics in play

But also:- Perspectives- Interests- Goals- Values- Narratives

Complexity and dynamism mean pathways cannot be expected to unfold in deterministic ways

Dealing with incomplete knowledge:Uncertainty and surprise are inevitable

Tailoring strategies and actions:Dynamics cannot always be controlled

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

knowledge about outcomes

Dealing with incomplete knowledgeMany contrasting aspects ....

RISKAMBIGUITY

UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

knowledge about outcomes

Dealing with incomplete knowledgee.g. Avian influenza

RISKAMBIGUITY

UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE

ostensibly definitivequantitative probabilisticmodels of risk

pandemic or not?impacts of veterinary controls?behaviour change in crisis?interplay in viral ecology / geneticsimmuno -compromisation ?

define ‘outbreak’:distributional consequences?mortality / morbidity?vulnerable groups?economic costs?livelihoods impacts?

new strains of the virus?unexpected transmission vectors?unanticipated health outcomes?complex social interactions?entirely novel pathogens?

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

knowledge about outcomes

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

decision rules aggregative analysis deliberative process political closure

reductive modelingstochastic reasoningrules of thumbinsurance

` evidence-basing agenda-setting horizon scanning transdisciplinarity

liability lawharm definitions indicators / metrics institutional remits

Powerful pressures to ‘close down’ towards risk

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

knowledge about outcomes

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

uncertainty heuristics

interval analysis

sensitivity testing

scenarios / backcasting

interactive modeling

mapping / Q-methods

participatory deliberation

reflexive research

institutional learning

adaptive management

From closing-down to opening-upVarious potential tools and methods...

reductive aggregative models

ALL INVOLVE INTERACTIVE MAPPING OF DIFFERENT UNDERSTANDINGS

STABILITY

DURABILITY

RESILIENCE

ROBUSTNESS

SUSTAINABILITY

Shaping pathways to sustainability, doing development But sustainability is not one thing.....

What is to be sustained (functions, values, services...) and who values these?

From Knowledge to Action

Temporality of change – are changes seen as shocks or stresses?Potency of action – is the aim to control or respond to change?

shock (transient

disruption)

stress (enduring

shift)

control respond

temporality of change

style of action

STABILITY

Tailoring strategies and actionsMultiple dynamics, often uncontrollable....

DURABILITY

RESILIENCE

ROBUSTNESS

shock (transient

disruption)

stress (enduring

shift)

control respond

temporality of change

style of action

STABILITY

Tailoring strategies and actionse.g. dealing with water resources in dryland India

DURABILITY

RESILIENCE

ROBUSTNESS

Control of short-term supply variability through dams, pumps and pipes

Engineering solutions geared to long-term shifts in rainfall and hydrology (e.g. margins, reduced water levels)

Adaptive responses and interventions geared to floods and droughts (e.g. crop mixes, mobility, water harvesting) ; local knowledge, culturally-embedded practices

Response to long-term shifts in water supply and use (e.g. changes in land use, agricultural practices, livelihoods); variegated, flexible institutional and engineering arrangements

shock (against transient

disruption)

stress (agaInst

enduring shift)

control (change is internal to control system)

response (change is external

to control system)

temporality of change

potency of action

STABILITY

e.g. blueprint planning in development

e.g. top-down engineering approaches in water management

e.g. avian influenza: routine responses, institutionalised practices encoded in

standard, global surveillance, early warning and rapid response routines

Powerful pressures to ‘close down’ around planned equilibrium

Need to be reflexive about the dynamics of power

DURABILITY

RESILIENCE

ROBUSTNESS

shock (transient disruption)

stress (enduring shift)

temporality of change

style of actioncontrol (tractable drivers )

respond (intractable drivers )

From closing-down to opening-upSome candidate styles of institution and intervention

shock (transient

disruption)

stress (enduring

shift)

control

response

temporality of change

potency of action

From closing-down to opening-upBroad reflection, reflexivity and humility are vital

DURABILITY

RESILIENCE

ROBUSTNESS

Reflection and Reflexivity

engage stakeholders; address multiple goals and values; explore uncertainties; map ambiguities; maintain flexibility / diversity

Development and pathways to sustainability amidst/as complex dynamics: some pointersBroad Reflection

- acknowledge quantification beyond reductive-aggregative modelling

Open Reflexivity

- beware powerful pressures to justify deterministic-, risk- and stability-based policies

Combine scientific rigour, democratic accountability and humility

- don’t be ashamed of ‘heuristics’: examine sensitivities to uncertainties

- disaggregate different framings: explore diverse scenarios / narratives, recognise multiple possible goals and values and their contestation

- show humility about ignorance – admit “we don’t know what we don’t know”

- challenge (‘sound science’) rhetorics in analysis of complex dynamic systems

- don’t take parameters for granted – acknowledge and deliberate over subjectivity

- acknowledge positionality and interactions of all involved actors, including different researchers, policy-makers and practitioners, citizens – engaged, participatory, transdiscipinary research- no ‘analytical fixes’ – highlight intrinsic politics in complexity and sustainability-