AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Market update of wheat, maize, rice and soybeansA perspective of the G20 Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
Denis DrechslerAMIS Project Manager
Agritechnica, Hannover9-10 November 2015
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
• What is AMIS?
• Why was it created?
• How does it work?
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
• An inter-agency platform to enhance food market transparency and reduce the likelihood of food price volatility
• Ten member organizations:
• Launched by G20 Ministers of Agriculture in 2011
• Target crops:
• Information focus: production, utilization, stocks, trade
• Participants: G20 Members & Spain plus 7 invited countries
Agricultural Market Information System
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Global coverage
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Uniting main players
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
• What is AMIS?
• Why was it created?
• How does it work?
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Food prices more volatile than in the past
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Threatening global food security
Consumers of food Food price volatility• Particularly harmful
for poor households• Causing economic
hardship• Lowering dietary
diversification
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Threatening global food security
Agricultural producers Food price volatility• Causes large income
fluctuations• Makes future planning
difficult• Delays investments to
increase productivity
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Reasons for higher volatility include• Lower stockholding from countries• Increased dependence on food imports• Erratic outputs from new production zones• Growing links with outside markets (e.g. energy)• Few countries providing most of the export supply• Use of restrictive trade measures• Climate change and stronger weather swings; etc.
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
• What is AMIS?
• Why was it created?
• How does it work?
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Three main bodies
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Meeting regularly
At technical level: Information Group
– Rome: 9-10 February 2012– Rome: 2-4 October 2012– Paris: 23-24 April 2013– Rome: 1-2 October 2013– Mexico City: 21-22 May 2014– Rome: 9-10 October 2014– Rome: 14-15 May 2015– Milan: 19 October 2015
At policy level:Rapid Response Forum
– Mexico City: 11 April 2012– Washington D.C.: 20 February 2013– Canberra: 3 March 2014– London: 26-27 March 2015
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
A strong team of member organizations
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
AMIS Market Monitor• Providing a collective assessment of the
market situation and outlook by the ten international organizations that form the AMIS Secretariat and GEOGLAM
• Produced 10 times a year
• Release dates in 2015: 05 February, 05 March, 02 April, 07 May, 04 June, 09 July, 10 September, 08 October, 05 November, 03 December
http://www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring/
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Market update: Nov 2015
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Falling Food Prices
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Plunging oil prices
http://www.amis-outlook.org/indicators/prices/en/
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Appreciating US Dollar
http://www.amis-outlook.org/indicators/prices/en/
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Higher the Dollar, lower the prices!Currency movements against the US dollar over the past 12 months
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Ocean freight relatively low & steady
http://www.amis-outlook.org/indicators/prices/en/
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Fertilizer prices relatively low & steady
http://www.amis-outlook.org/indicators/prices/en/
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Market situation in Nov 2015• Slight increase in prices of all four AMIS commodities
• However, prices well below the corresponding period last year
• Weaker prices reflect large export availabilities in 2015/16 in the face of generally frail import demand, especially with regard to wheat and maize.
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Wheat conditions for AMIS countries
As of 28 October 2015
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Maize conditions for AMIS countries
As of 28 October 2015
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Rice conditions for AMIS countries
As of 28 October 2015
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AMIS at Agritechnica 2015
Soybeans conditions for AMIS countries
As of 28 October 2015
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Thank You
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