16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
LUIS S. VARGASArea de Energia
Departamento de Ingenieria ElectricaUniversidad de Chile
Principales tendencias de las energías renovables en las economías de la cuenca del
Pacífico
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
OUTLINE
• PRESENT SITUATION IN APEC
• REFERENCE SCENARIO
• ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
• FUEL AND CO2 EMISSIONS
• PHASING OUT TECHNOLOGIES
• THE CHALLENGE ON NRE TECHNOLOGIES
• THE POLICY AND MARKET FORCES
• OBJECTIVES OF CURRENT PROJECT
• SUMMARY
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
APEC REGION
A. Australia, Canada, Brunei Darussalam, Hong Kong China, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, Chinese Taiwan, USA.
B. Chile, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico.
C. Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Thailand, Viet Nam.
D. China, Russia.
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
Solid to Gas in less than 100 years…
Source: Shell 2001
H2 & CH4 to account for more than
30% by 2030
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
PRESENT SITUATION IN APEC
Coal44%
Oil based5%
Natural gas20%
Hydro14%
Nuclear15%
NRE2%
PROJECTED APEC ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION FOR YEAR 2005
Biomass 50%Geothermal 24%Wind 6%
Other 20% (PV, Small Hydro, Tide, etc.)
NRE still a minor player in the energy arena due to lack of competitiveness under current policy and market rules.
Conventional
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION TRENDS
APEC ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION PATTERN
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
GDP/capita
Kw
h/c
ap
ita
Australia
Brunei
Canada
Chinese Taipei
Hong Kong, China
Japan
New Zealand
Singapore
United States
Chile
Korea, Rep.
Malaysia
Mexico
Indonesia
Papua New Guinea
Peru
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
China
Russian Federation
Curve-Superior
Middle Curve
Curve-Inferior
•S-shape pattern
•Clusters for different regions
•APEC Electricity demand growth is 2.8 percent annually
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
• 1600 million people have no access to electricity in the world. • 200 million people in APEC region ditto
0 25 50 75 100
Chile
Malaysia
Mexico
Korea
Indonesia
Papu New Guinea
Peru
Philippines
Thailand
Viet Nam
China
Russia
Percentage
0 25 50 75 100
Chile
Malaysia
Mexico
Korea
Indonesia
Papu New Guinea
Peru
Philippines
Thailand
Viet Nam
China
Russia
Percentage
Electrification level (%) in selected APEC economies
Growth will be concentrated in developing economies
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION TRENDS
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
REFERENCE SCENARIO
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
TWh
2000 2025 2050
NRE
Nuclear
Hydro
Natural gas
Oil based
Coal
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
TWh
2000 2025 2050
NRE
Nuclear
Hydro
Natural gas
Oil based
Coal
Reference Scenario 2000-2050
•Coal share around 40 percent, •Oil will decline to a minimum,•Hydropower is kept around 13 percent•Natural gas is nearly one third of the electricity production•NRE becomes 8%
• Oil and gas reserves may prove inadequate to support demand• International agreements may increase pressure for cleaner technologies• Security of supply
BUT:
An alternative scenario is needed
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
Hydro13%
Nuclear11%
NRE42%
Natural gas26% Coal
8%
Oil based0%
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
2050 Scenario• 2050 Scenario to achieve similar level of CO2 emissions as of 1997 in APEC region
• Coal electricity power generation is decreased steadily.
• Oil electricity production is phased out.
• Natural Gas source is similar as the Reference scenario.
• Nuclear is moderately increased (but total share decreases from 15% to 11%)
The main change would come from NRE
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
FUEL AND CO2 EMISSIONS
NRE technologies will be fully competitive after 2010
Coal power generation is decreased 2% annually starting in 2010
NRE technologies will be fully competitive after 2020
Coal power generation is decreased 3% annually starting in 2020
Delayed Deployment Accelerated Deployment
Fuel Savings
Scenarios
Accelerated Scenario
Delayed Scenario
Coal [million ton]
85,213 67,591
Oil [million bbls]
3,600 0
Natural Gas [BCM]
10,180 10,180
Total Values for
period 2000-2050
Scenarios
Reference
Accelerated Scenario
(1)
Delayed Scenario
(2)CO2 Emissions
[million tons CO2]628,674 374,306 423,050
Estimated Cost [trillion US$]
12.38 4.90 4.03
Estimated Savings with respect to
reference scenario [trillion US$]
- 7.48 8.35
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
NEW PLANTS
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Reference scenario Early NRE Deployment scenario Late NRE Deployment scenario
DECOMMISSIONING
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
NEW PLANTS
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Reference scenario Early NRE Deployment scenario Late NRE Deployment scenario
DECOMMISSIONING
# Coal Plants
PHASING OUT TECHNOLOGIES: Example of Coal plants
• There is a political cost for delaying the decision• and also an economical one from decommissioning costs
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
Mix in Early NR scenario
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Tw
hSolar
Wind
Others
Geothermal
Biomass
• NRE resource availability• Adequate technical development of NRE technologies
NRE Electricity Technology
% AverageGrowth rate2000- 2050
Biomass 8.6
Geothermal 7.4
Others 16.9
Wind 13.2
Solar PV 11.1
CHALLENGE ON NRE TECHNOLOGIES
NRE will have to grow on average above 10% yearly •Implementation of NRE technologies in
real markets
.....
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
Source: Shell
Significant share of wind and modern biomass by 2030
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Biofuels
Geothermal
Solar Thermal
Biomass
Wind
Solar PV
Projected growth (shell projection) 2000 - 2010 (%pa)
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
THE POLICY AND MARKET FORCES
Implementation of NRE technologies requires both political and market changes
GEOTHERMAL
BIOMASS
SMALL HYDRO
MARKET DRIVEN
BIOMASS
SMALL HYDRO
GEOTHERMAL
PV
CO
MP
ETIT
IVE
CO
ST
POLICY DRIVEN
PR
OD
UC
TIO
N C
OS
TH
IGH
WINDWIND
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
Dissemination of NRE technologies driven by market profit
GEOTHERMAL
BIOMASS
SMALL HYDRO
MARKET DRIVEN
BIOMASS
SMALL HYDRO
GEOTHERMAL
PV
CO
MP
ETIT
IVE
CO
ST
POLICY DRIVEN
PR
OD
UC
TIO
N C
OS
TH
IGH
WINDWIND
$$
$ $$
THE POLICY AND MARKET FORCES
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
Installed Wind Capacity in Selected APEC Economies
Source :AWEA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1993 2000 2003
Meg
awat
ts (
MW
)
Malaysia
Indonesia
Chile
Chinese Taipei
Mexico
Russia
Korea
New Zealand
Japan
China
Canada
Australia
7,717
3,267
1,645
Can this growth be sustained through 2030?
… or will it grow more rapidly?
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Meg
awat
ts (
MW
)
JPN
USA
AUS
MEX
CAN
ROK
Installed PV Capacity Expansion for APEC Economies
What would be the impact of further technological breakthrough by 2030?
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
Assessing the real costs of providing electricity
A. Externality Costs B. To estimate marginal cost for traditional technologies (Coal,
Gas, and Oil-based) with incorporation of flue gas mitigation processes.
C. To assess different types of subsidy received by conventional energy producers.
Markets for NREA. Market design not suitable for NREB. Explore different approaches to incorporate external costs
in marketsC. To estimate potential market for NRE in APEC
Challenges of Electricity Market Design
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
Sources: Swezey, B. G.; Porter, K. L.; Feher, J. S. (1994). “Potential Impact of Externalities Considerations on the Market for Biomass Power Technologies. Report No. TP-462-5789. National Renewable Energy Lab, Golden, Colorado. Energy Information Administration (1995). “Electricity Generation and Environmental Externalities EIA Externalities report: Case Studies.” DOE/EIA-0598. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/external/external.pdf
EXTERNALITY COSTScents/kWh, $1992
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
In APEC region electricity markets have different structures:
Centralized monopolyRegulated competitionFully deregulated
Tax and subsidy structure also present a great diversity
Market integration may accelerate deployment process for NRE technologies
Markets for NRE Electricity
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
Markets for NRE Electricity
No regional integration
Full regional integration
Infrastructural integration
Regulatory integration
Commercial integration
APEC REGION
Desired market with clear rules for NRE
(Distributed Generation) have to
be implemented
Nordpool
Mercosur
Ultimately the market is the main driver for deployment of any technological advance
APEC IN THE FUTURE
16th EGEDA Meeting, Beijing, PRC – 2 and 3 February 2005 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Análisis de Regulación y Normativa Necesarios para la Integración de Pequeños Generadores en los Sistemas Eléctricos Nacionales 2005
APEC has a wide variety of NR policies
Greater deployment of NRE in APEC region requires clear market rules for Distributed Generation
Market structures as a driver for NRE
Diversification of energy sources from NRE improves energy security
Emission reduction: Nuclear or NRE
SUMMARY