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L I M
M E I N 2014 P 1
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L I M
M E I N 2014 P 2
C
....................................................................................................................................................... 3
L P I........................................................................................................ 4
I .................................................................................................................................................. 5F F ............................................................................................................................................ 10
C O ..................................................................................................................................................... 11
C: B P ................................................................................................................... 12
E: NF P ................................................................................................................ 13
E: E H ............................................................................. 14
E: J G/L .................................................................................................................. 15
E: I NF P .................................................................................. 16
E: F ............................................................................................................................... 17
E: P, L F, E .................................................................................... 18
E: L F P ............................................................................................. 19
E: ..................................................................................................................... 20
: E ............................................................................................................................ 21
: D I .......................................................................................................... 22
: C ................................................................................................................ 23
C C: M ............................................................................... 24
C C: C B ...................................................................................... 25
C: O ............................................................................................................................ 26
C: B L L .................................................................................................................... 27
: N .................................................................................................................................. 28
: ......................................................................................................................................... 29
: ........................................................................................................................ 30 : E A ...................................................................................................................... 31
: O...................................................................................................................................... 32
M: H ................................................................................................................... 33
E .......................................................................................................................................... 34
M: O ............................................................................................................................... 35
O: C G ................................................................................................................................. 36
M: D ............................................................................................................ 37
E: C .................................................................................................................................. 38
E: P...................................................................................................................................... 39
: M ................................................................................................................... 40: G C ...................................................................................................... 41
I: D I C .............................................................................................. 42
I: C & P P....................................................................................................... 43
I D .......................................................................................................................................... 44
I D ............................................................................................................................... 45
I E ................................................................................................................................. 46
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L I M
M E I N 2014 P 3
Summary
"G":
F
C
B
"B":
1% '
M 2006
N L F P
G ,
. H,
. C , GDP
. (66 ) (65
) (59 ) 1958. F
? I $4 , 25% GDP. A
F .
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L I M
M E I N 2014 P 4
Lighthouse Recession Probability Index
0%
P I E 2
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L I M
M E I N 2014 P 5
Introduction
. K
.
I , NBE (N B
E ). NBE "
" (, , GDP ).
NBE ' ;
(D 2007) D 1, 2008 . B , &P
500 I 1,575 741. , J 2009
20, 2010 . B , &P 500
940 1,142.
NBE
( NBE ' ,
).
.
H, , &P 500
O 2007,
8 .
, F B (
). H, ,
.
( 2 G, , D
) . ,
IP (
).
I , ECI (E C I),
, "".
C B L I &P 500 I,
M2 (
).
A ,
NBE .
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L I M
M E I N 2014 P 6
GDP ; O A 28, 2008 ( 8
" "), Q2 2008 GDP +1.9%
+3.3%, 2% . L, 1.3%,
3.7%, 9.2% 5.4% (, ). &P 500 I '
2 1/2 .
F ""
NBE.
O 50 , : F.
, . D
F
. A F.
;
"" ( 3 ).
. O
( , ,
).
. O :
( ) ( )
/
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L I M
M E I N 2014 P 7
N . ( )
( ). . ("")
; ("")
. A ,
. A 50% ,
100% .
"L P I" (LPI)
. H (: 3)
(: 1). O LPI
1971, ( 40%50% ).
F B . L C / P
( ). I ( , ,
). H, C/P
, LPI (1 ).
LPI C/P.
I , C "
80% ". A, "" 70% (2003/4) .
20% A 2012, 1.7% .
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M E I N 2014 P 8
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M E I N 2014 P 9
40% LPI ( 40%) .
&P 500
( ):
A LPI 7% (A 1980)
(2001) ' ' (20082009).
. ('') (
)
(19822000).
P LPI .
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L I M
M E I N 2014 P 10
Fed Funds Rate
("F") 9 .
F F ;
. A 2 4.5
1954.
. ; .
( ) , ( )
. N
.
L P I.
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L I M
M E I N 2014 P 11
Crude Oil
A 75% 100% .
C M 2011 F 2012.
C .
C $113/ .
LPI
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L I M
M E I N 2014 P 12
Construction: Building Permits
? N ! A 25%+
. M 2001 . 2011 . A 1990/91
( 250 317 2014).
M () ()
. LPI. C .
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M E I N 2014 P 13
Employment: Non-Farm Payrolls
"", , .
"" . A
1% .
; "" 1980 1982
. , , 145,000
. "C P " ( ,
) 60,000 ( , ).
D ? O 47% A . 2007, , 2.5
. P "" . F
(Q1 2008) Q1 2010 1.2 "" ( $2154) ;
2 0.8 . 4
($1421) , 0.9 . A ($7$14), 1.3
, 2 . LPI.
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L I M
M E I N 2014 P 14
Employment: Establishment versus Household Survey
N B E (NBE) E
H .
A E , . A
12 220.
A H , 12
317 ( 194), ( O 2013).
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M E I N 2014 P 15
Employment: Jobs Gained/Lost
C .
E 100,000,
300,000.
.
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M E I N 2014 P 16
Employment: Initial and Revised Non-Farm Payrolls
( ),
( ) (/ ,
).
D ( ),
273,000.
I Q3 2008, 159, 190 273 ( L ).
I , .
BL (B L ) /
, .
. A (
M) .
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M E I N 2014 P 17
Employment: Full Time
. D ,
.
P ,
( ).
A J, :
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M E I N 2014 P 18
Employment: Population, Labor Force, Employees
5 , , .
.
L :
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M E I N 2014 P 19
Employment: Labor Force Participation Rate
L F P
( ). M
, .
L ,
( , ).
E ;
.
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M E I N 2014 P 20
Employment: Unemployment
L (49%) , 45.5%
(, , ,
, ) , ' '
A .
2.5 2008. E
. I ,
, .
2007, 13 90
, .
E .
, 14.3% ( 5.8%
).
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M E I N 2014 P 21
Recessions: Employment
2008/9
I M 2014, (= 100)
77
, 10% ( 14
)
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M E I N 2014 P 22
Recessions: Real Disposable Income
C 5 , 10%, $1.7
,
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M E I N 2014 P 23
Recessions: Consumer Spending
C
"N " 1990'
2000'. H,
.
I , 20% ($2.2 )
33% ($3.6 ) .
P , 303 319
(5%) .
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M E I N 2014 P 24
Consumer Confidence: University of Michigan Survey
M, , 500
,
1964 100. A
.
(2005) (1981; 19801981
, ' ). A 25%+
. 2011 . LPI
.
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M E I N 2014 P 25
Consumer Confidence: Conference Board Survey
C B, ,
3,000
. 18 .
.
(1992, 2003),
1981/2 2001 ( ). 2011 " ".
LPI .
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M E I N 2014 P 26
Credit: Total Outstanding
M . B ,
, 60 , 2009. A 2%
. I 1987 ( ). E
. , ,
. LPI ,
:
Q2'09 CMDO GDP (374%). Q3'07 10.6%,
&P 500 1,575 .
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M E I N 2014 P 27
Credit: Bank Loans and Leases
1971, 2%
C ,
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M E I N 2014 P 28
Retail Sales: Nominal
F LPI, " " ( ). N
, .
2014; J :
.
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M E I N 2014 P 29
Retail Sales: Real
N ; LPI
Q4 Q1, M:
' ' .
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M E I N 2014 P 30
Retail Sales: Real per-capita
5%
G Q2, :
N .
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M E I N 2014 P 31
Retail Sales: Excluding Autos
M , $90 (20% ),
, . E ,
'' ( ).
I Q4 2012, 45% (FICO
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M E I N 2014 P 32
Retail Sales: Online
O (A, )
$40
15% (
' )
O .
( )
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M E I N 2014 P 33
Manufacturing: Hours Worked
C '
A 2%
( 1996); LPI
C
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M E I N 2014 P 34
Weekly Earnings
A
G Q2:
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M E I N 2014 P 35
Manufacturing: Orders
I M (IM) ,
, . A 50 "" ( ).
(1989) LPI.
IM .
H, 13.2 J 2014 40
( 3 ). I .
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M E I N 2014 P 36
Orders: Capital Goods
D , .
"" . " "
5% 0%. LPI. C .
D
G Q2
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M E I N 2014 P 37
Manufacturing: Supplier Deliveries
M (1985, 1989, 1995, 1998, 2005) . ,
"" .
.
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M E I N 2014 P 38
Energy: Consumption
I .
. I 1% , '
L ,
C 88%
"E " LPI
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M E I N 2014 P 39
Energy: Production
E . , ,
(1983, 1992, 1997, 2006), "";
2.5% . 0.5%
, .
E 2012
LPI
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M E I N 2014 P 40
Transportation: Miles Traveled
2.25 (0.7%) , . I
0.1% , (
).
2001 . 2011 (
). 2007 ;
1980/81. O ,
. A A
' .
, . ,
, LPI. I M,
, .
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M E I N 2014 P 41
Transportation: Gasoline Consumption
C , ;
"L" (1996)
2012 ( )
,
0%
" ", ,
. I LPI.
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M E I N 2014 P 42
Income: Real Disposable Income per Capita
I 2013:
G ,
( )
I D 2013,
. ,
. H, D 2012 (
D 2013 ).
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M E I N 2014 P 43
Inflation: Consumer & Producer Prices
C . H,
1%
CB +12% J 3%
F ( GDP) (
)
I ,
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M E I N 2014 P 44
Inflation Drivers
I CPI:
41% (, , , )
16% (, , )
15% ( , )
"OE", , .
.
. H,
OE.
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M E I N 2014 P 45
Inflation Drivers - Table
O 3 , 0.1%, 1.0%
P ( ) ,
C
(
, )
OE
M C
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M E I N 2014 P 46
Inflation Expectations
= . :
IP. 5 (), 10 () 30
() . "" ;
( ). , ,
. I :
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M E I N 2014 P 47
:
O . A
CPI .
O , ( )
CPI ( ''.
:
B L (BL) " " ,
. I , /
, BL . ,
, 100 (198284) 8.4, 92% (, ,
).
(.. J ) ''
, BL 1980. H
10%:
BL , I 2000
810%. O 14 , GDP 60% ($10 $17), 4% . , GDP 4%
14 , 40%. I
( ).
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L I M
A .
A G LIM
,
'
,
'
, , ,
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
, ()
() ,
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