Pilotprosjekter som innovasjonsstrategi
På vei mot transport 2.0?2. februar 2015 - Union Scene Drammen
Lars CoenenCIRCLE, Lunds Universitet
NIFU & Utrecht Universitet
Time horizon (years)
Improvement inenvironmental efficiency
Factor 10
Factor 5
Factor 2
5 10 20
Function innovation= new system
Partial system redesign
System optimimisation
Low-carbon transport requires transitions to new systems
What can innovation policy deliver?
• Innovation > market failure > public support for R&D
• Innovation system policy:– Innovation capabilities (beyond R&D)– Institutions– Networks
• Yet, poor fit with the innovation constraints implied by low-carbon transitions (Alkemade, Hekkert and Negro.,
2012)
A definition of ’transition’
Co-evolution towards system innovations through new technology, changes in markets, user pratices, policy and cultural discourses, and governing institutions (Geels, Hekkert and Jacobsson, 2008)
(1) co-evolution and multiple changes in socio-technical systems or configurations
(2) multi-actor interactions between social groups such as firms, user groups, scientific communities, policy makers, social movements and special interest groups
(3) ‘radical’ change in terms of scope of change (not speed)(4) long-term processes covering 40-50 years.
Insights from transition studies for innovation policy
Additional system failures (Weber and Rohracher, 2012)
• Demand / market creation (Dewald and Truffer, 2011)
• Public legitimacy for emergent technologies• Directionality • Resistance to change• Entrepreneurial experimentation
Innodemo• Hva har skandinaviske
demonstrasjons- og forsøksprosjekt og programmer bidratt med for å støtte opp under overgangen til mer bærekraftige energi- og transportsystemer?
• Hvordan bør styring av slike prosjekter og programmer utvikles for at de skal gi størst mulig bidrag?
Projects in the database433 demonstration and trail projects in the database in total
Denmark: 224, incl. 7 EU projectsNorway: 107 projectsSweden: 102 projects
Transport technologies97 projects (22%) were concerned with transportation– electrical mobility– biofuel/biogas
Energy technologies – IEA codes
0
50
100
150
200
250
Denmark Norway Sweden
Mill
ion
€
Other Power andStorage technologies
Hydrogen and Fuelcells
Renewable energysources
Energy efficiency
Projects in the database- increase of demonstration and trail projects during the period
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
Denmark
Norway
Sweden
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Denmark
Norway
Sweden
Mill
ion
€
Number of projects Funding of projects
Project aims- number of projects - multiple aims possible
Prove technical feasibility
Reduce building, operating and maintenance costs
Prove feasibility in commercial applications
Prove environmental feasibility
Improve public acceptance
Introducing institutional embedding
Contribute to the formation of knowledge networks
Facilitate learning
Expose system weaknesses
Other objectives
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Denmark Norway Sweden
Resultater av prosjektene, i prosent
Demo of functioning technology
New design/concept
New standards
New manufacturing process
Extension/continuation of project
Licenses
Patents
Written manuals/reports
Commercial success
27.33
22.98
4.35
2.48
13.66
1.24
10.56
14.29
3.11
Governance conclusions: widening considerations of uncertainty
• Trial and demonstration projects are key to bridging the valleys of death between R&D and market/societal introduction of new technologies
• High risks and uncertainties are unavoidable: allow for experimentation & failure
• Most focus is on reducing technological uncertainty
• Reducing social and economic uncertainty are equally important but usually recieve less attention
• Greater involvement required from users, policy-makers, non-technological stakeholders
Governance conclusions: deal with uncertainty, not ignore or avoid it
• Build a smart portfolio of trial and demonstration projects
• Many projects will fail: this is unavoidable for experimentation
• True failure > ‘the failure to learn from failure’
• Barriers: Silo structures, ineffective mechanisms to support learning, high staff turnover and the lack of time for learning
• More attention for learning and communication between and across projects
• Transitions to sustainable energy and transport systems: system of systems that require system integration
Governance conclusion: diversity of projects, stakeholders and knowledge as a resource
• Trial and demonstration projects are inherently experimental
• Uneasy fit with ‘orthodox’ project management
• Heterogenous stakeholders: diversity in interests, goals, knowledge > opportunity for innovation, challenge for project management
• Trust is crucial to facilitate learning and a culture of collaboration and fruitful experimentation > requires patience and a willingness to accept failure
Trial and demonstration projects: Strategic Niche Management (Raven, 2005)
technical development: design specifications and required complementary technology user context: user characteristics, requirements, meanings and barriers to use societal and environmental impact industrial development: production and maintenance government policy and regulatory framework.
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