Climate Change and the Transportation SectorClimate Change and the Transportation SectorMidwest Transportation Air Quality SummitMidwest Transportation Air Quality SummitOctober 28, 2009October 28, 2009
Lewison LemLewison Lem
Principal Consultant
Center for Climate Strategies
and Jack Faucett Associates
Inventories Show Transportation as Sector Inventories Show Transportation as Sector accounting for the Second Largest Amount of accounting for the Second Largest Amount of GHG EmissionsGHG Emissions
Source: INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: 1990-2005 (April 2007) Fast Facts USEPA #430-F-07-004
Center for Climate Strategies
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The Contribution of the Transportation Sector to The Contribution of the Transportation Sector to Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United StatesGreenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States
� The transportation sector (red) produces 28% of GHG emissions in the United States
3
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us)
Selected Midwest Selected Midwest States (2003) Transport States (2003) Transport and Total GHG and Total GHG Emissions (MMtCO2e)Emissions (MMtCO2e)State 2003
Transport2003Total
2003Transport % of Total
Illinois 65.5 274.9 23.8%
Indiana 47.2 269.0 17.5%
Iowa 19.4 116.7 16.6%
Michigan 55.7 211.4 26.3%
Minnesota 34.8 124.1 28.0%
Ohio 69.7 300.7 23.2%
Wisconsin 29.6 123.7 23.9%
7 State Subtotal 321.9 1420.5 22.7%
Center for Climate Strategies
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Selected Midwest States GHG Emissions Selected Midwest States GHG Emissions Growth Rates from 1990 to 2003Growth Rates from 1990 to 2003State
Transport %Increase
Total % Increase
TransportAnnual Rate% Increase
TotalAnnual Rate % Increase
Illinois 18.4% 15.8% 1.4% 1.2%
Indiana 14.0% 18.7% 1.1% 1.4%
Iowa 16.9% 15.0% 1.3% 1.2%Iowa 16.9% 15.0% 1.3% 1.2%
Michigan 13.7% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3%
Minnesota 43.2% 20.0% 3.3% 1.5%
Ohio 21.9% 10.4% 1.7% 0.8%
Wisconsin 19.4% 15.4% 1.5% 1.2%
7 State Subtotal
19.8% 13.5% 1.5% 1.0%
Center for Climate Strategies
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Distribution of Transportation Sector GHG Distribution of Transportation Sector GHG Emissions by Mode of TravelEmissions by Mode of Travel
6
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us)
United States (DOE/AEO) Baseline Forecast United States (DOE/AEO) Baseline Forecast of Total Vehicle Miles Traveled through 2020of Total Vehicle Miles Traveled through 2020
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500A
nn
ua
l V
MT
(b
illi
on
s)
Heavy Duty Trucks
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2005 2010 2015 2020
An
nu
al V
MT
(b
illi
on
s)
Heavy Duty Trucks
Medium Duty Trucks
Light Trucks
Automobiles
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 7
United States (DOE/AEO) National Transportation United States (DOE/AEO) National Transportation Fuel Consumption Baseline Forecast through 2020Fuel Consumption Baseline Forecast through 2020
25
30
35
Other
MarineBunker Fuel
Ethanol (E85)
0
5
10
15
20
2005 2010 2015 2020
Qu
ad
rill
ion
Btu
s Ethanol (E85)
Jet Fuel
Diesel
Gasoline
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 8
US Forecast of New LDV and Total LDV US Forecast of New LDV and Total LDV Fleet Fuel Efficiency with EISA 2007 CAFEFleet Fuel Efficiency with EISA 2007 CAFE
30
35
40M
ile
s p
er
Ga
llo
n G
aso
lin
e E
qu
iva
len
t (M
PG
e)
New LDV MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE
Total LDV Fleet MPG
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mil
es
pe
r G
all
on
Ga
soli
ne
Eq
uiv
ale
nt
(MP
Ge
)
Total LDV Fleet MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 9
US Forecast New LDV and Total LDV Fleet US Forecast New LDV and Total LDV Fleet Fuel Efficiency with Obama 2009 CAFEFuel Efficiency with Obama 2009 CAFE
30
35
40
Mil
es
pe
r G
all
on
Ga
soli
ne
Eq
uiv
ale
nt
(MP
Ge
) New LDV MPG with Obama 2009 CAFÉ
New LDV MPG with
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Mil
es
pe
r G
all
on
Ga
soli
ne
Eq
uiv
ale
nt
(MP
Ge
)
MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE
Total LDV Fleet MPG with Obama 2009 CAFE
Total LDV Fleet MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 10
Comparison of Global Vehicle GHG Comparison of Global Vehicle GHG Emissions and Fuel Economy StandardsEmissions and Fuel Economy Standards
Center for Climate Strategies
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(http://www.theicct.org/documents/ICCT_GlobalStandards_2007.pdf)
US Potential US Potential for GHG Emissions for GHG Emissions Reductions Reductions from Vehicle Purchase Incentivesfrom Vehicle Purchase Incentives
-6.3% in 2020
-1.8% in 2020
0.0%
2,000
2,200
2,400
US
Fu
ll F
ue
l C
ycl
e E
mis
sio
ns
(MM
CO
2e
)
EISA 2007 CAFE
-4000.0%1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2005 2010 2015 2020
US
Fu
ll F
ue
l C
ycl
e E
mis
sio
ns
(MM
CO
2e
)
Obama 2009 CAFE
Obama 2009 CAFE +Incentives
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 12
Vehicle Purchase Incentives:Vehicle Purchase Incentives:13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates
� 1,792 Billion Gallons in Gasoline and Diesel Savings
� 22.71 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions
$3.0 B Increase in Vehicle Costs� $3.0 B Increase in Vehicle Costs
� $7.6 B Decrease in Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Costs
� $4.5 B Decrease in Net Costs
� $195 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness
(Year 2007 dollars)
Center for Climate Strategies
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US Potential for US Potential for GHG Emissions GHG Emissions Reductions Reductions from Advanced Biofuelsfrom Advanced Biofuels
-6.7%
-1.8%
0.0%
2,000
2,200
2,400
US
Fu
ll F
ue
l C
ycl
e E
mis
sio
ns
(MM
CO
2e
)US On-Road Greenhouse Gas Emissions
EISA 2007 CAFE
-4000.0%1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2005 2010 2015 2020
US
Fu
ll F
ue
l C
ycl
e E
mis
sio
ns
(MM
CO
2e
)
Obama 2009 CAFE
Obama 2009 CAFE +Renewable Fuels
Center for Climate Strategies
(www.climatestrategies.us) 14
Advanced Biofuels:Advanced Biofuels:13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates
� 600 Million Gallons in Gasoline and Diesel Savings
� 1.49 Billion Gallons Added Ethanol Consumption
� 10.45 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions
(Year 2007 dollars)
Center for Climate Strategies
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Truck AntiTruck Anti--Idling:Idling:13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates
� 4 Billion Gallons in Diesel Fuel Savings
� 9.22 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions
� $1.29 B Increase in Vehicle & Equipment Costs� $1.29 B Increase in Vehicle & Equipment Costs
� $2.07 B Decrease in Diesel Fuel Costs
� $0. 77 B Decrease in Net Costs
� $83 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness
(Year 2007 dollars)
Center for Climate Strategies
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Freight Truck to Rail Mode Shift:Freight Truck to Rail Mode Shift:13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates
� 10.28 Billion Gallons in Diesel Fuel Savings
� 16.20 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions
$1.2 B Increase in Vehicle & Infrastructure Costs� $1.2 B Increase in Vehicle & Infrastructure Costs
� $4.4 B Decrease in Diesel Fuel Costs
� $3.2 B Decrease in Net Costs
� $196 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness
(Year 2007 dollars)
Center for Climate Strategies
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“Double” Transit Ridership:“Double” Transit Ridership:13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates
� 328 Million Gallons in Auto Gasoline Savings
� 3.8 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions
� Capital and O&M Costs not yet estimated
� $822 M Decrease in Auto Gasoline Fuel Costs
(Year 2007 dollars)
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Global Comparisons Global Comparisons Show Show Gradient Gradient of Per Capita Transportation Energy of Per Capita Transportation Energy Use Use in in Urban AreasUrban Areas
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Center for Climate Strategies
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UK UK transport transport CO2 CO2 emissions emissions emissions emissions Intensity Intensity Map, 2005Map, 2005
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Center for Climate Strategies
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London Metro Transport CO2 London Metro Transport CO2 emissions intensity, 2005emissions intensity, 2005
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Center for Climate Strategies
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Center for Climate Strategies
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Infill and TOD analysis for Atlanta Metro Region:Infill and TOD analysis for Atlanta Metro Region:Atlantic Steel/Atlantic Station site simulation showedAtlantic Steel/Atlantic Station site simulation showed35% less driving and emissions than comparable sites.35% less driving and emissions than comparable sites.
Center for Climate Strategies
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For Further Information:For Further Information:
� www.climatestrategies.us
� http://www.jfaucett.com/
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