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Quarterly National Accounts Course
Joint Vienna Institute
August 5 - 16, 2013
L-3: Sources for GDP by theProduction Approach
Reproductions of this material or any parts of it should refer to the IMF Statistics Department as the source
Lecture Outline
GDP b the roduction a roach
Main data sources
Issues in the calculation of value added
Data sources by economic activity
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GDP by the Production Approach
GDP = Gross Value Added GVA at basic rices+ Taxes less subsidies on products
Most common approach in QNA
Availability of more infra-annual data
Better coverage from businesses in the short-term
Provide rowth decom osition b industr
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Short-term surve s b economic activit
Main sources from the Statistical Office
Industrial production
Sales/Turnover
Retail Trade
Labor force
and on prices
onsumer pr cesProduction prices
Agricultural prices
Export and import prices (or unit value indices)
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Re ulator Data
Main administrative sources
Agriculture commodity prices, forestry permits, fishcatch, etc.
Mining production, building permits, vehicleregistration, tourist arrivals, etc.
Customs Revenue and Tax Systems
VAT system data on turnover and inputs
Excise, turnover and VAT taxes, import dutiesSocial security system
Wages/salaries, contributions
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Government
Other sources
Budget data on revenues and expenditures
Central BankFinancial intermediation and insurance companies
Quantity information from large corporations orbusiness associations
Oil, Electricity, Communication, Transportation
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Concept of value added
Gross Value Added GVA at basic rices =Gross Output (GO) at basic prices Intermediate Consumption (IC) at purchasersprices
Contribution of an industry to the total outputavailable for final uses in the economy
Non-observable concept; residual item
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Double indicator methods for value added
Variables values prices volumes
GO
GVA residual implicit residual
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GVA in QNA
uarterl indicators on both GO and IC arehardly available, or are of poor quality
Some exceptions: agriculture, oil, energy
Risk of erratic results (negative GVA) if IC/GO ishigh and relative prices change rapidly
to be applied at the quarterly level
Simplified approximations are needed, especially forvolume estimates
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Single indicator methods for volume GVA
Out ut-related methods
Deflation of GVA with output price index
Extrapolation of GVA with volume GO
Extrapolation of GVA with physical quantity index
In ut-related methods
Deflation of GVA by an input price index
Deflation of GVA by a wage rate index
Extrapolation of GVA by an index of employment
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Single indicator methods for volume GVA
Out ut index enerall more reliable than in utindex, then it should be preferred
But GVA shares of GO and IC matter (moreinputs, more likely GVA deviates from GO)
Implicit fixed ratios (VA/O, VA/IC)
prices (relative prices can change in the short term
more than technology)Desirable to show calculated GO and IC explicitly
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Improving the fixed-ratio assumption
Possible to obtain GVA GO or GVA IC fromactual data rather than ratios?
Desirable if ratios are variable (looking at historicalrelationship helps)
Possibly available for public enterprises andimportant industries dominated by a few large
Input and output prices widely available, always tobe used at the most detailed level. GVA atcurrent prices should behave accordingly
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Sources by Activity: Agriculture, forestry
and fishing (A)Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
Ministry of agriculture Actual harvest data Forecasts, especially for most recent quarters
Surveys (farmers, marketers, customers)Marketing organizationsPopulation/employment data (subsistence)
Aquaculture and fish catch data
ExportsAgricultural prices, or CPI/PPI components
JVI/QNA/L3 : 13IMF Statistics Department
Sources by Activity: Mining
and quarrying (B)Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
Production indexPhysical quantity indicators
Administrative data from Ministry of EnergyRoyaltiesExports
VAT data
mp oyment ours wor e + pro uct v ty tren
PPI components/specific purpose price indices
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Sources by Activity: Manufacturing (C)
uarterl indicators: values uantities
Industrial production index
Surveys:
Quantity data
Sales / revenue / turnover (+ change in inventories offinished goods, W-I-P)
,
Company reports
Combination of above
PPI components/specific tariffs
JVI/QNA/L3 : 15IMF Statistics Department
Sources by Activity: Electricity
and Gas (D); Water supply (E)
uarterl indicators: values uantities
Industrial production index
Physical quantity from large utility companies orauthorities
Electricity generation/consumption
Gas/water supplied
PPI components/specific tariffs
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Sources by Activity: Construction (F)Quarterly indicators: values/quantities
Building permits (administrative register)Surveys: Builders (residential, non-residential) Customers of builders
Input indicators (supply of building materials)Employment/hours worked (+ productivity trend?)
-Government budget for public construction
Road constructionOutput price index or, more commonly, inputprice index (cost of materials, wage index)
JVI/QNA/L3 : 17IMF Statistics Department
Sources by Activity: Wholesale and retail
trade (G)
Conce tual issues:
Output is calculated as trade margins
Trade margins (output) = Value of sales value of goodspurchased for resale + Changes in inventories
The volume of trade margins at constant prices isproportional to the volume of goods distributed (i.e.Base ear mar in x current volume of oods
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Sources by Activity: Wholesale and retail
trade (G)
uarterl indicators: values uantities
Surveys of retail and wholesale sales/turnover
VAT data
Sum of trade margins from value/quantity of goodsdistributed (commodity flow by type of goods).SUT helpful
CPI/WPI/PPI components
JVI/QNA/L3 : 19IMF Statistics Department
Sources by Activity: Transportation and
storage (H)uarterl indicators: values uantitiesSurveys : revenue/quantities (passengers orpassenger-km)
VAT data (turnover)
Information from large enterprises (airlines, airports,rail, public transportation)
Frei ht: volume of oods handled
Employment/hours worked
PPI/CPI components
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Sources by Activity: Accommodation and
food service activities (I)
uarterl indicators: values uantities
Surveys (revenue, number of overnight stays)
VAT data
Tourist arrivals
Balance of payments travel item
Employment / hours worked
CPI components
JVI/QNA/L3 : 21IMF Statistics Department
Sources by Activity: Information and
communication (J)
uarterl indicators: values uantitiesLandline/mobile users from communication operators
Internet connections
Number subscribers TV/cable service
Gross revenue postal service
TV/radio advertising
,
PPI components/specific tariffs
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Sources by Activity: Financial and
insurance activities (K)uarterl indicators: values uantitiesMoney and banking statistics
Stocks of deposits and loans, interest receivable andpayable by institutional sector (for FISIM calculation)
Activity quantity measures (number of accounts,policy-holders, transactions)
Life insurance remiums and claims
Non-life insurance (premiums and benefits)
Employment/hours workedBroad-based deflators (on deposits and lending,but not on FISIM directly)
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Sources by Activity: Real estate
activities (L)
uarterl indicators: values uantities
Surveys on occupancy rates
Dwelling rents
Stock of dwellings (own-account)
Administrative by-products
Real estate: land transfers
Housing price/rates
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Sources by Activity: Professional, scientific
and technical activities (M)
uarterl indicators: values uantities
Surveys on professional services
Employment/hours worked
VAT data
Administrative by-products
Lawyers: cases/deaths/divorces/land transfers
PPI/CPI components, rates
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Sources by Activity: Administrative and
support service activities (N)
uarterl indicators: values uantities
Sales/Turnover
Employment/hours worked
VAT data
In ut costs rates
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Sources by Activity: Public administration;
Defence; Social Security (O)
uarterl indicators: values uantities
Government finance statistics
Employment/hours worked
Wage index/CPI
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Sources by Activity: Education (P)
uarterl indicators: values uantities
Government finance statistics
Employment/hours worked
Wages and salaries
Quantity indicators from public/private school(number of pupils enrolled, teaching staff number)
Households survey
Wage index/CPI
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Sources by Activity: Human health and
social work activities (Q)
uarterl indicators: values uantities
Government finance statistics
Employment/hours worked
Wages and salaries
Data from health insurance schemes
Number of patients/beds
Wage index/CPI
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Sources by Activity: Arts, entertainment
and recreation (R)
uarterl indicators: values uantities
Sales/turnover indexes
Employment/hours worked
Expenditure on sport and gambling activities
Wage index/CPI
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Sources by Activity: Other service
activities (S)
uarterl indicators: values uantities
Surveys on trade unions/business associations
Government funding
VAT data
Employment/hours worked
CPI rates In ut rices
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Sources by Activity: Households as
employers (T)
uarterl indicators: values uantities
Employment/hours worked (domestic staff servinghouseholds)
Wages and salaries
CPI for domestic staff
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Taxes/Subsidies: Import Duties
uarterl indicators
Government finance statistics
Values and volumes of imports (preferably withbreakdown by type of product)
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Taxes/Subsidies: VAT, others on products
uarterl indicators
Government finance statistics
Values and volumes of goods and servicesproduced/sold subject to tax/subsidy (preferably withbreakdown of goods and services that closely
correspon wit type an rate o taxes
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