Gwan-sik, Wi(Director, Korean Space Weather Center)
KSWC Space Weather Services & Future Plan
24. Oct. 2016
Gwan-sik, Wi (Director, Korean Space Weather Center)
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13.6 million (Foreigner 2.6 million)
0.65 million (1.3% of whole Korea)
1,950 m (Baekdusan 2,744m)
Biosphere Reserve (2002)
World Natural Heritage (2007)
Global Geopark (2010)
“The New7Wonders (2011)”
“UNESCO Triple Crown, Jeju”
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Contents
1. Overview
2. Policy & Strategy
3. R & D
4. Summary
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Overview
4
KSWC Overview
KSWCKOREAN SPACE
WEATHER CENTER
MSIP MINISTRY OF SCIENCE,
ICT AND FUTURE PLANNING
RRANATIONAL RADIO
RESEARCH AGENCY
Since August 2011
The primary action agency of emergency measure to severe SWx,
and the RWC Korea of International Space Environment Service
2011 2012
2014 1980S~
Regional Warning Center Member of ICTSW
Delegate for Space Weather Leading Agency of ROK
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KOREAN SPACEWEATHER CENTER(KSWC)
Official source to deliver space weather products & services in Korea
Operation CenterForecast & Alert, R&D, Observation
Research on optical & radio astronomy, space science
Research on ionosphere, mesosphere in polar region
Space weather effect on (terrestrial) climate, weather, meteorological satellite
R.O.K Space Weather Capability
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Models & Services
ASSA, IPS-Enlil,
NAIRAS, IRI-VOACAP, GIC,
etc. (29ea.)
Customers
Satellite
Comm.
Comm.DefenseDefense
Power
Aviation
Products
3-hourly Condi. & Forecast
3-day Forecast(daily)
27-day Forecast(weekly)
HF Prediction(monthly)
Alerts & White Alerts
WWW
Observation
Spa
ceG
roun
d B
ased
Ionosondes (x2)
& TEC (x5)
Mag (x3)
SRS (30MHz~2.5GHz)
F10.7 Meter
IPS
RIMS (30MHz~18GHz)
ACE, DSCOVR,
STEREO Tracking
GIC Monitor (x3)
KSWC Space Weather Operation
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Policy & Strategy
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Addendum 3-2(Agency of risk Management)
…
(Space Weather Risk) The Ministry of Science, ICT and Future
Planning
…
DisasterACT
Framework ACT on the Management of
Disaster and Safety
Policy - Disaster Act of SW Risk
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Article 51(Establishment & Implementation of basic plan for
the management of Space Weather Risks)
The Minister of Science, ICT and Future Planning shall
establish and implement a basic plan for the management of
space weather risks including following in order to prepare,
control and recover against disasters due to variation of space
weather conditions in every 5 years.
Radio Wave ACT
1. Matters concerning observation and surveillance of variation of space
weather conditions;
2. Matters concerning forecasts and alerts of space weather risks;
3. Matters concerning R&D (Research and Development) and
international cooperation for the prevention of and preparing against
space weather risks.
4. Other matters necessary to provide against space weather risks.
Policy - Radio Wave Act of SW Risk
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11/23
Standard Manual
for
Space Weather Risk
2013.2.
All ministries followed predefined procedures based on KSWC’s SWx information !
Policy - SW Disaster Management (1)
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Radio Wave Act(Article 61)
Space Weather Center
ACT Alerts (Scale) Authority
Framework Act on the Management of Disasters and Safety
Over Scale 4 of SW Alert
ACT Alert(Scale) Authority
Space
Weather
Alerts
Space
Weather
Disaster
Alerts
Attention
Caution
Alert
Serious
Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning
Section Chief
Undersecretary
Vice-minister
Minister
Situation Assessment Meeting
Radio Wave Act(Article 51)
1 ~ 2
3
4 ~ 5
NOAASWx
Scales(R,S,G)
Send alert
messages
Notify to key
customers
Notify to related
Ministries
KSWC level
Ministry level
National level
Solar Activities Alerts
Policy - SW Disaster Management (2)
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Leading of R & D Enhanced Space Weather analysis and prediction models
Vitalized Administration
Establishment of inter-agency cooperation
Strengthen disaster response capacity
Enhanced Data systemCollaboration for raising data efficiencyDeveloping identity of observation facilitiesProper improvement of facilities
Reinforcement ofInt’l cooperation
International cooperation for R&D
Diversification of international relation
Systematic OperationEmpowerment for observation & forecast
Expanding customers & promotion
5 Strategies 10 Action Plans
KSWC – Strategy and Action Plan
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R & D
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15m ~ several hours
(Proton)
8m 20s
(X-ray)
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Solar Source Solar effects SW Alerts Major Industries
Aviation
Satellite
Navigation
Power gridCommunication
2 ~ 3 days
Radio Blackouts
(R)
Solar Radiation Storms
(S)
Geomagnetic Storms
(G)(Electron, Proton)
Sun Corona Interplanetary Space Geomagnetic Field
R & D - Solar Activity Overview
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Radio Blackouts Solar Radiation Storms Geomagnetic Storms
Forecast
Model
- ASSA (Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer)
- Solar Proton EventPrediction
- Enlil, IPS, IPS-driven Enlil
Function
Identify solar active regions, filament channels and coronal holes
Predict the intensity and
occurrence of the solar
radiation storm
Calculate geo-effectiveness of solar wind using IPS data & Coronagraph
Upgrade
Plan
(Future)
+ Tracing filaments using SDO 304
+ Analyzing the magnetic field configuration of sunspots
+ Predicting the peaktime and the end time of the solar proton event
+ CME analysis improvementusing data of STEREO and L5 satellite
+ Predicting IMF Bz+ Automatic CME analysis
R & D - SW Forecast Models
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Satellite Aviation Navigation Power Grid Comm.
Analysis
Model- DREAM - SAFE
- GNSS signal
monitoring analysis
- GICmeasurement
- Real time
HF Mapping
Function
Calculate highenergy particles on the radiation belts
Calculate
cosmic radiation
does during
aviation flight
MonitorGNSSsignal statusaccording to solar activity
Measure GIC induced bySpace Weather
disturbance
Predict usable HF based on ionosphericassimilation
Upgrade
Plan
(Future)
+predict electron density distributions for 3 days using deep-learning
+predict cosmic
radiation doses
on flight routes
+predict GIC
and K index
for 3 days in
Korea
+accuracy
improvement
using portable
observational
devices for
ionosphere
R & D - SW Effect Analysis Models
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http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/assa
R & D - ASSA
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R & D - ASSA Upgrade for Prediction
Flare prediction using both Mt. Wilson
and McIntosh classification
Tracing and estimating the path of
Filaments using SDO 304
Forecasting one month solar activities
based on ASSA sunspot number
ASSA Upgrade plan McIntosh clssification
Mt.Wilson classification
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* Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model
DREAM(LOS Alamos National LAB) +
New physical model(KSWC)
Input : GOES MAG.& Particle data,
Kp, DST, Solar wind data
Result : RT Elec. flux in Rad. Belt
Will upgrade to predict electron
density distributions for 3 days
DREAM Satellite Service
Radiation Dose for ROK Satellites
- COMS, ARIRANG 2,3,3A & KSAT 5&6
- Radiation Hazard Warning
Will analyze damage of satellite by
cosmic radiation does
R & D - for Satellites
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Will measure real-time space
radiation for commercial aircrafts
- Study on dose meter’s airworthiness
ARMAS-Lite Project * Automated Radiation Measurements for Aviation Safety
- KSWC, SET, NOAA/SWPC, NASA, NSF
- Fly with NOAA & NCAR airplanes
Space Radiation Measurement
R & D - for Aviation
* Safety Aviation Flight Environment
NAIRAS(NASA) + CARI-6M(FAA)
Input : Flight time, Airport, Airline
Result : Radiation dose of all flights
Will upgrade to predict cosmic
radiation doses on flight routes
www.spaceweather.go.kr/SAFE
SAFE
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Country Organization Date Main Subject
USUCSD Univ. ’15.06.17.
Introduction of solar wind prediction model Research on the interplanetary space
Done
NOAA ’15.2.9. Space weather forecasting
Japan
NICT ’14.5.8. Cooperation observation of ionosphere
Nagoya Univ. ’12.12.24.Research on the solar physicsExchange of observed data for solar activities analysis
China IGGCAS ’16.8.26.Cooperation observation of ionosphere in Northeast Asia
UK Met Office ’16.10.Participation in the construction of the receiving station which can store and analyze the data from L5 satellite in real time.
FutureUS
NASA ’16.11.Accuracy estimation on forecasting models of space environment
Los Alamos ’16.11.Research on the prediction of electron density distribution
Mexico UNAM Univ. ’16.11. IPS data exchange for solar wind observation
R&D - International Cooperation (MOU)
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Summary
KSWC will enhance SW R&D and disaster management
based on the RADIO strategies
Global Cooperation is more crucial in SW
Further discussion to aim closer partnership of Asia-
Oceania during AOSWA
Mutual exchange of R&D and Data will amplify the synergy
KSWC is planning to operate network using TEIN
through Asia-Oceania
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www.facebook.com/rwcjeju RRA Space Weather
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