Kern County’s Population will More than DoubleGrowth Driven by Spillover from Southern California and Our Kids
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Other
Hispanic
White
Trend: Kern’s Changing EthnicityHispanics will increase from 38 to 58 percent
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
55+
20-54
0-19
Trend: Kern is AgingPersons 55+ will increase from 17 to 22 percent
Source: California Department of Finance, 2007
Source: California Department of Finance, 2007
Even if we created an Even if we created an eight-lane eight-lane tripletriple beltway system we beltway system we still cannot build our still cannot build our way out of way out of congestion with all congestion with all the development on the development on the books today.the books today.
Future Heavy Traffic Congestion(2045-65 depending on how fast we grow)
Downtown
Olive Dr at 99Olive Dr at 99
RosedaleRosedale Hwy at 99Hwy at 99
Today’s Heavy Traffic Congestion (2005)
Bakersfield
South Beltway
Westside Parkway
West B
eltway
Shafter North Beltway
ou
ter metro
beltw
ay
crosstown
inner beltw
ay
CSUB
BC
Airport
Lamont
Shafter
Bakersfield
Red = Frequent CongestionRed = Frequent CongestionOrange = Regular CongestionOrange = Regular CongestionYellow = Occasional CongestionYellow = Occasional Congestion
Red = Frequent CongestionRed = Frequent CongestionOrange = Regular CongestionOrange = Regular CongestionYellow = Occasional CongestionYellow = Occasional Congestion
Will Building Freeways Eliminate Congestion?
Relief Options for Congested Freeways
CSUB
BC
Mill Creek
Baker St
Transportation model results indicated that ridership on light-rail not enough by 2014:
–700 passengers per mile –2000 needed per mile to operate affordably
One Light Rail Line Can One Light Rail Line Can Carry as Many Passengers as Carry as Many Passengers as
16-lanes of Freeway16-lanes of Freeway(El Toro “Y” in Orange County)(El Toro “Y” in Orange County)
One Approach: Phased Light Rail
Today
Bus Rapid Transit
Light Rail
Metro Bakersfield Light Rail Sketch Plan
The 1996 light rail study for Bakersfield indicated that there would not be enough riders for a system by 2014. The city was not compact enough to operate the service. The study recommended enhancing bus service as an interim step until the community became compact enough to operate a light rail system.
Some communities are looking to express bus or bus rapid transit as an interim service until activity around the transit stops are busy and compact enough to support a light rail system.
Metro Bakersfield Bus TransitInterim Step to Light Rail
San Diego Trolley
Eugene OR,. Bus Rapid Transit – Dedicated bus lane on arterial streets
Bus caught in same traffic as cars
Metropolitan Bakersfield Major Transportation Investment Study (1996)
Mervyn’s Plaza
Downtown
AMTRAK
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