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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Quarterly Highlights (Standalone)(` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) 3QFY13 % chg (qoq)Revenue 939 736 27.5 620 51.4EBITDA 99 83 19.5 63 58.3
EBITDA margin (%) 10.6 11.3 (71) 10.1 46
Reported PAT 22 31 (29.3) 13 65.6Source: Company, Angel Research
For 4QFY2013, Jyoti Structures (Jyoti)s top-line performance was much better
than our estimates, growing by 27.5% yoy to `939cr on account of strong
execution. However, PAT declined by 29.3% yoy to `22cr, primarily on account of
elevated interest costs (since increase in receivables led to higher working capitalborrowing). Jyotis interest coverage multiple remains under stress, declining from
2.0x in 4QFY2012 to 1.6x presently.
Healthy order backlog: The company reported a healthy order inflow of `1,100crin 4QFY2013, taking its total order backlog to `4800cr, implying an order
backlog to sales ratio of 1.7x. The order backlog is spread across transmission
(79%), substation (10%) and rural electrification (11%) segments. Client-wise, the
backlog mainly comprised of orders by PGCIL (27%), West Bengal (17%),
Maharashtra (12%), Madhya Pradesh (6%) and overseas (25%). The company
reported good ordering from countries such as Egypt, Kazakhstan, Kenya and
Namibia, among others, which boosted its overseas segments contribution to order
book. The Management has guided at an order visibility of ~6,000cr for 1QFY2014.
Deteriorating working capital cycle remains key concern: The debtor dayscontinue to be as high as 230 days, mainly due to pending receivables to the tune
of ~`400cr plus from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan discoms. In light
of the deteriorating working capital cycle (higher levels of working capital
borrowing), we expect interest costs to remain elevated going forward. The
Management expects increase in focus on overseas business and execution of
some of the slow-moving domestic orders to aid in improving the companys
working capital cycle.
Outlook and valuation: The company is witnessing improvement in execution andhas a healthy order book, but the deteriorating working capital cycle remains the
key concern. We believe, interest cost will remain at elevated levels going
forward, dragging Jyotis profitability. Therefore, we recommend a Neutral ratingon the stock, even though the stock is currently trading at a cheap valuation of2.6x our FY2015E EPS.Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 2,678 3,015 3,360 3,597% chg 11.6 12.6 11.5 7.0
Net profit 92 38 60 84% chg (8.0) (58.2) 56.7 38.8
EBITDA (%) 11.0 9.0 9.7 9.8
EPS (`) 11.2 4.7 7.3 10.2P/E (x) 2.4 5.7 3.7 2.6
P/BV (x) 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.7RoE (%) 16.2 6.1 8.8 11.4
RoCE (%) 24.8 16.5 17.5 18.5
EV/Sales (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 2.5 3.9 3.1 3.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRALCMP `27
Target Price -
Investment Period -
Stock Info
Sector
Net Debt (`cr) 816
Bloomberg Code JYS@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 27.8
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 19.3
FII / NRIs / OCBs 12.7
Indian Public / Others 40.3
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 3.5 22.4 14.2
JYS (16.9) (30.0) (81.4)
Reuters Code JYTS.BO
BSE Sensex 19,546
Nifty 5,919
Avg. Daily Volume 59,846
Face Value (`) 2
Beta 1.3
52 Week High / Low 53/26
Capital Goods
Market Cap (`cr) 220
Amit Patil022-39357800 Ext: 6839
Jyoti StructuresPerformance Highlights
4QFY2013 Result Update | Capital Goods
June 4, 2013
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Jyoti Structures| 4QFY2013 Result Update
June 4, 2013 2
Exhibit 1:Quarterly performance (Standalone)
(` cr) 4QFY13 4QFY12 % chg (yoy) 3QFY13 % chg (qoq) FY2013 FY2012 % chg (yoy)Net Sales 937 735 27.5 619 51.5 2,802 2,592 8.1Other operating income 1 1 1 - 4 1 -Total income 939 736 27.5 620 51.4 2,806 2,593 8.2Stock adjustments (13) (45) 4 6 (65)
Raw Material 684 415 65.0 371 84.3 1,725 1,432 20.5
(% of total income) 71.5 50.2 2124.5 60.6 61.7 52.7
Erection and sub contracting exp. 65 182 (64.2) 109 (40.7) 446 592 (24.7)
(% of total income) 6.9 24.7 (1774.2) 17.7 15.9 22.8
Employee Cost 19 20 (4.3) 20 (4.4) 85 79 6.8
(% of total income) 2.0 2.7 3.2 3.0 3.1
Other Expenses 85 82 3.2 52 62.6 262 274 (4.4)
(% of total income) 9.0 11.1 (211.8) 8.4 9.3 10.6
Total Expenditure 839.5 653.2 28.5 557.1 50.7 2,523 2,312.5 9.1EBITDA 99 83 19.5 63 58.3 283 281 0.9(EBITDA %) 10.6 11.3 10.1 10.1 10.8
Interest 61 40 51.6 38 60.4 169 141 19.7
Depreciation 7 4 47.8 6 6.4 25 21 17.9
Other Income 3 5 (42.2) 2 30.1 9 10 -
PBT 34 43 (20.6) 20 67.4 98 129 (23.9)(% of total income) 3.6 5.8 3.3 3.5 5.0
Total Tax 12 11 3.9 6.8 71 33 43 (23.2)
(% of PBT) 34.2 26.1 33.5 33.7 33.5
Reported PAT 22 31 (29.3) 13 65.6 65 86 (24.2)(PAT %) 2.4 4.3 2.2 3.8 6.0
EPS (`) 2.7 3.8 1.6 65.6 7.9 10.4 (24.0)Source: Company, Angel Research
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June 4, 2013 3
Exhibit 2:Trend in revenues
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 3:Trend in EBITDA
Source: Company, Angel Research
Robust top-line growth, but higher interest cost drags downPAT
For 4QFY2013, Jyotis top-line performance was much better than our estimates,
growing by 27.5% yoy to `939cr. The growth was on the back of strong execution.
However, the PAT declined by 29.3% yoy to `22cr, primarily on account of
elevated interest costs (since increase in receivables led to higher working capital
borrowing). Jyotis interest coverage multiple remains under stress, declining from
2.0x in 4QFY2012 to 1.6x presently.
Exhibit 4:Interest coverage ratio
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5:Trend in PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
Deteriorating working capital cycle remains key concern
The debtor days continue to be as high as 230 days, mainly due to pending
receivables to the tune of ~`400cr plus from Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and
Rajasthan discoms. In light of the deteriorating working capital cycle (higher levels
of working capital borrowing), we expect interest costs to remain elevated going
forward. The Management expects increase in focus on overseas business and
execution of some of the slow-moving domestic orders to aid the company to
improve its working capital cycle.
722
638
632
587
736
655
593
620
939
31.8
13.0 16.56.5
2.0
2.7 (6.2) 5.5
27.5
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
100
200
300
400
500
600700
800
900
1000
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)
84
70
68
59
83
64
57
63
99
11.611.0 10.8
10.111.3
9.8 9.7 10.110.6
0
2
4
6
810
12
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
EBITDA (` cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)
2.5 2.6
2.2
1.7
2.0
1.9
1.6 1.6 1.6
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
35
26
22
14
31
17
12
13
22
4.8
4.1
3.5
2.4
4.3
2.6
2.0 2.2
2.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
3540
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
Adj. PAT (` cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)
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Jyoti Structures| 4QFY2013 Result Update
June 4, 2013 4
Healthy order inflow and backlog
The company reported a healthy order inflow of `1,100cr in 4QFY2013, taking
the total order backlog to `4800cr, implying an order backlog to sales ratio of
1.7x. The order backlog is spread across transmission (79%), substation (10%) and
rural electrification (11%) segments. Client-wise, the backlog mainly comprised of
orders by PGCIL (27%), West Bengal (17%), Maharashtra (12%), Madhya Pradesh
(6%) and overseas (25%). The company reported good ordering from countries such
as Egypt, Kazakhstan, Kenya and Namibia, among others, which boosted its
overseas segments contribution to the order book. The Management has guided at
an order visibility of ~6,000cr for 1QFY2014.
Exhibit 6:Order Book coverage ratio
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7:Order backlog growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment arguments
Growth opportunity on cards: Globally the thumb rule entails that for every rupeeinvested in generation, an equivalent amount is to be invested in transmission and
distribution (T&D). However, India has spent only 50% on T&D of what has been
spent on generation in recent years, thus creating a huge opportunity for players in
the T&D space. PGCIL has envisaged a T&D capex of `1 lakh cr for the 12 th plan,
55% of which is expected to be deployed in transmission and substation projects,
thus providing an array of opportunities for Jyoti, given its strong foothold in the
T&D segment.
Diversification to gradually materialize: Jyoti has been actively tapping theoverseas markets by entering into JVs in South Africa and the Gulf. In addition, the
company recently forayed into the US by setting up a transmission tower plant
(revenue potential of ~`340cr annually - @100% capacity utilization). We believe
these ventures will benefit the company in the long run, thereby insulating it from
domestic headwinds.
Outlook and valuation: In spite of improvement in execution and a healthy orderbook, deteriorating working capital cycle remains a key concern. We expect
interest costs to remain at elevated levels going forward, thus dragging Jyotis
profitability. Therefore, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock, even though
the stock is currently trading at a cheap valuation of 2.6x our FY2015E EPS.
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.7 1.7
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
4,5
00
4,4
70
4,3
75
4,3
00
4,3
40
4600
4800
4605
4800
8.4 8.9
2.94.9
(3.6)
2.9
9.7
7.1
10.6
-8
-3
2
7
12
17
4,000
4,100
4,200
4,300
4,400
4,500
4,6004,700
4,800
4,900
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
Order backlog Growth (yoy %, RHS)
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Jyoti Structures| 4QFY2013 Result Update
June 4, 2013 5
Exhibit 8:Peer comparison
Company Reco. CMP Tgt. price Upside P/BV(x) P/E(x) FY2013-15E RoE (%)(`) (`) (%) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E EPS CAGR FY14E FY15E
ABB* Sell 643 461 (28.3) 5.1 4.9 55.8 37.9 61.6 9.3 13.1BHEL Neutral 196 - - 2.1 1.9 9.5 12.2 (23.3) 23.5 16.1
BGR Energy Neutral 164 - - 0.9 0.8 7.6 5.8 12.3 22.3 23.4
Crompton Greaves Buy 91 117 28.8 1.5 1.4 13.7 10.2 - 11.4 14.0
JSL Neutral 27 - - 0.7 0.7 3.7 2.6 47.5 8.6 11.0KEC International Buy 42 63 50.0 0.9 0.8 6.9 4.9 83.5 20.2 23.0
Thermax Neutral 578 - - 3.3 2.9 19.4 17.5 10.7 17.9 17.4
Source: Company, Angel Research;*Note: December year ending
Exhibit 9:One year forward PE Band
Source: Company, Angel Research
Company background
Jyoti is one of the leading EPC players in the transmission line and substation
segments with business presence across transmission line towers, substation and
rural electrification. The company offers a wide range of services in design,
engineering, tower testing, manufacturing, construction and project management.
In addition to its strong domestic presence, Jyoti is also exploring T&D capex
opportunities on the global front through recent overseas JVs and investments
(Jyoti America and Gulf Jyoti).
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Ja
n-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Share Price (`) 4x 8x 12x 16x
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Jyoti Structures| 4QFY2013 Result Update
June 4, 2013 6
Profit and loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EOperating income 2,130 2,400 2,678 3,015 3,360 3,597% chg 15.8 12.7 11.6 12.6 11.5 7.0Total Expenditure 1,901 2,132 2,383 2,745 3,034 3,244Raw Materials 1,250 1,345 1,370 1,779 1,865 1,996
Mfg costs 378 459 620 493 709 759
Personnel Costs 72 77 101 155 124 133
Other Costs 201 250 292 317 336 356
EBITDA 229 268 295 270 326 352% chg 10.2 17.2 10.1 (8.5) 20.7 8.1
(% of Net Sales) 10.7 11.2 11.0 9.0 9.7 9.8
Depreciation& Amortization 18 21 23 36 37 41
EBIT 211 247 272 234 289 311
% chg 6.7 17.1 10.2 (13.8) 23.2 7.8
(% of Net Sales) 9.9 10.3 10.2 7.8 8.6 8.7
Interest & other Charges 80 96 144 182 209 197
Other Income 6 5 8 3 9 9
(% of PBT) 4.6 3.1 5.5 5.2 10.1 7.3
Recurring PBT 138 156 136 55 89 124% chg 2.3 13.5 (12.9) (59.4) 61.4 38.8
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) 1 0 0 0 0 0
PBT (reported) 137 156 136 55 89 124Tax 53 56 43 17 29 40
(% of PBT) 38.7 36.1 31.6 31.5 32.5 32.5
PAT (reported) 83 100 93 38 60 84Add: Share of earnings of asso. 0 0 0 0 0 0
Less: Minority interest (MI) 0 0 1 (1) 0 0
Prior period items 0 (0) 0 0 0 0
PAT after MI (reported) 83 100 92 38 60 84ADJ. PAT 84 100 92 38 60 84% chg (0.9) 18.4 (8.0) (58.2) 56.7 38.8
(% of Net Sales) 4.0 4.2 3.4 1.3 1.8 2.3
Basic EPS (`) 10.3 12.1 11.2 4.7 7.3 10.2Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 10.3 12.1 11.2 4.7 7.3 10.2% chg (1.3) 18.2 (8.0) (58.2) 56.7 38.8
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable withprevious year numbers
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June 4, 2013 7
Balance sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 16 16 16 41 41 41Preference Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reserves & Surplus 475 560 644 667 703 763Shareholders Funds 491 576 660 709 745 804
Minority Interest 0 0 1 1 1 1
Total Loans 369 449 581 922 892 895
Deferred Tax Liability 18 18 12 60 60 60
Total Liabilities 878 1,071 1,423 1,691 1,697 1,759APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 244 283 325 445 500 555
Less: Acc. Depreciation 69 87 106 142 179 220
Net Block 175 196 219 303 321 335Capital Work-in-Progress 2 8 177 182 184 188
Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0
Investments 17 17 22 53 53 57
Deferred Tax Asset 0 0 0 0 0 0
Current Assets 1,350 1,572 2,141 2,484 2,591 2,720Cash 54 67 54 54 65 35
Loans & Advances 185 181 220 263 264 264
Inventories 247 231 295 281 285 305
Debtors 863 1,093 1,569 1,887 1,976 2,116
Others 0 0 4 0 0 0
Current liabilities 665 764 1,085 1,225 1,324 1,414
Net Current Assets 684 808 1,057 1,111 1,118 1,157Mis. Exp. not written off 0 42 56 42 42 42
Total Assets 878 1,071 1,423 1,691 1,697 1,759Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
previous year numbers
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Cash Flow statement (consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 138 156 136 55 89 124Depreciation 18 21 23 36 37 41(Inc)/Dec in Working Capital (86) (110) (198) (220) 4 (70)
Less: Other income (6) (5) (8) (3) (9) (9)
Direct taxes paid (53) (56) (43) (17) (29) (40)
Cash Flow from Operations 10 6 (90) (149) 93 46(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets (58) (50) (211) (125) (57) (62)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments 0 0 (5) (31) 0 (5)
Other income 6 5 8 3 9 9
Cash Flow from Investing (52) (45) (208) (153) (48) (58)Issue of Equity 0.1 0.0 0 25.0 0.0 0.0
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 56 80 273 341 (30) 3
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (10) (14) (10) (24) (24) (24)
Others 10 (12) 21 (39) 21 4
Cash Flow from Financing 47 65 263 342 (54) (22)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 15 13 (13) (0) 11 (30)
Opening Cash balances 39 54 67 54 54 65Closing Cash balances 54 67 54 54 65 35
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable withprevious year numbers
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Key ratios
Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 2.6 2.2 2.4 5.7 3.7 2.6P/CEPS 2.2 1.8 1.9 3.0 2.3 1.8
P/BV 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.7
Dividend yield (%) 3.7 5.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
EV/Sales 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
EV/EBITDA 2.3 2.2 2.5 3.9 3.1 3.0
EV / Total Assets 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
OB/Sales 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0
Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 10.3 12.1 11.2 4.7 7.3 10.2
EPS (fully diluted) 10.3 12.1 11.2 4.7 7.3 10.2
Cash EPS 12.5 14.7 14.0 9.0 11.8 15.2
DPS 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Book Value 59.8 70.1 80.3 34.2 35.9 38.8
DuPont Analysis(%)EBIT margin 9.9 10.3 10.2 7.8 8.6 8.7
Tax retention ratio (%) 61.3 63.9 68.4 68.5 67.5 67.5
Asset turnover (x) 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.3
RoIC (Pre-tax) 27.7 27.7 24.0 16.4 18.6 19.5
RoIC (Post-tax) 17.0 17.7 16.4 11.2 12.5 13.2
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 14.3 14.9 19.1 16.6 15.5 14.9
Leverage (x) 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1
Operating ROE 18.7 19.6 14.3 5.5 9.0 11.3
Returns (%)RoCE (Pre-tax) 26.1 26.3 24.8 16.5 17.5 18.5
Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 27.8 27.8 26.1 18.7 21.0 22.1
RoE 18.6 19.5 16.2 6.1 8.8 11.4
Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) (X) 9.8 9.1 8.8 7.8 7.1 6.8
Inventory / Sales (days) 34 36 36 35 31 30
Receivables (days) 135 149 181 209 210 208
Payables (days) 111 116 134 147 148 147WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 101 104 119 125 115 110
Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to Equity 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1
Net debt to EBITDA 1.4 1.4 1.8 3.1 2.4 2.3
Interest Coverage 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.3 1.4 1.6
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable withprevious year numbers
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June 4, 2013 10
Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Jyoti Structures
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)