JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plcAnnual General MeetingSeptember 2018
Sophie Bosch de Hood, Executive DirectorPortfolio [email protected]
1
Brazil index performance vs. emerging market peers
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of August 2018
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18
MSCI EM
MSCI Brazil
MSCI Russia
MSCI Mexico
2
Brazil in the headlines
Source: Publications listed
“Brazil: explosive recordings implicate President Michel Temer in bribery.” – The Guardian (May 2017)
“Neymar admits 'sometimes I do exaggerate' in post-World Cup message to fans.” – ESPN (August 2018)
3
2.6%
-1.0% -1.8% -3.4%
-4.9% -6.5%
-11.0%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
U.S. UK Japan Europe(ex-UK)
EM Asia EM Latin America
Sources of Global Equity Returns – YTD to 30th June 2018
YTD 2018 returns by region
Source: Standard & Poor’s, MSCI, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset ManagementAll return values are MSCI Gross Index (official) data and are in USD. Multiples and earnings in sources of return calculation are based on consensus expectations in local currency. Chart is forillustrative purposes only. Guide to the Markets – Latin AmericaPast performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results
GTM – LATAM | Page 24
Total return, USD
Dividends
Earnings (local currency) Multiples
Total returnCurrency effect
4
YTD 2018, a turn to negative returns due to currency and valuation compression
Source: Factset, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of 30 June 2018.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results
Brazil: Sources of total returns
7%
-22%
0%
-16%-14%
-41%
67%
24%
-17%
-75%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD 2018
DividendValuation ChgEPS Growth (Lcl)CurrencyTotal Return
5
Brazil – a story of 2 tales
Source: (left) Central Bank of Brazil, IBGE (Brazilian Statistics and Geography Institute), J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets – Brazil; (right) Central Bank of Brazil, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets – Brazil. Image from Shutterstock.Data as of 30th June 2018.
Macro economics (+) Government Finances (–)
2%
5%
8%
11%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
IPCA, 12-month accumulated % change Consensus
Target: 4.5%
Lower limit: 3.0%
Upper limit: 6.0%
May 2018: 2.9%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
% of GDPGross debt
May 2018: 77.1%
Average: 62.3%
Inflation targeting and inflation
6
Delicate balance to regain confidence and investment
Source: FGV/IBRE (Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation), J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets – Latin America. Image from Shutterstock.Data as of 30th June 2018.
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Consumer and industrial confidence
ConsumerIndustrial
Will I have a pension?
Will I still be able to afford
my home? Will the next government finally provide stability to
the markets?Is a 2% GDP growth
achievable?
Seasonally adjusted
7
Political uncertainty – past corruptions and upcoming elections
8
Performance
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset ManagementInception Date: 26 April 2010Index History - 26 April 2010 To Current - MSCI Brazil 10/40. Total return, net of charges and any applicable fees using cum income Net Asset Values (NAVs) debt at par with net dividend (if any) reinvested. GBP
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc to 30th April 2018 – 12 month rolling returns
30/4/17 –
30/4/18
30/4/16 –
30/4/17
30/4/15–
30/4/16
30/4/14–
30/4/15
30/4/13–
30/4/14
30/4/12–
30/4/13
30/4/11–
30/4/12
Portfolio return 4.1% 44.0% -14.4% -14.6% -24.4% 4.4% -10.0%
Index 11.1% 44.5% -10.9% -9.5% -17.1% 0.2% -13.0%
Ordinary share price return 4.3% 38.6% -18.2% -11.9% -26.0% -2.7% -15.3%
9
Performance
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Inception Date: 26 April 2010Index History - 26 April 2010 To Current - MSCI Brazil 10/40. Total return, net of charges and any applicable fees using cum income Net Asset Values (NAVs) debt at par with net dividend (if any) reinvested. GBP.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc
12 Months to 30th April 2018
Portfolio return 4.1%
Index 11.1%
Ordinary share price return 4.3%
12 Months to 31st July 2018
Portfolio return -8.0%
Index -1.1%
Annualised Performance since inception – 31st July 2018
Portfolio return -3.2%
Index -1.4%
Brazilian equities were volatile in the twelve months to 30th April 2018, with the MSCI Brazil 10/40 Index (the ‘Index’) return of 11.1% GBP disguising larger intra-period swings.
Allegations of corruption against President Michel Temer early in the reporting period eroded investor confidence sparking a significant market correction. The market subsequently recovered some of its previous strength as macro data improved on the back of the tangible progress being made with the reform agenda.
The end of 2017 saw uncertainty amongst investors as to the direction of much needed pension reform, despite earlier progress. This led to a decline in the market, despite a further interest rate cut by the Brazilian Central Bank in December, down to a record low of 7%.
Against this backdrop, the Company’s net asset value and share price rose (4.1% and 4.3% respectively) during the review period, but lagged the benchmark Index, MSCI Brazil 10/40.
10
0.22
0.67
-0.53
-2.44
-2.07
-1.00
-0.70
-0.52
0.05
0.24
0.59
0.80
-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0
Cash
Energy (u)
Materials (u)
Consumer Discretionary (o)
Health Care (o)
Financials (o)
Telecoms (u)
Real Estate (o)
Utilities (u)
Consumer Staples (u)
Information Technology (n)
Industrials (o)
Stock selectionAsset allocation
Performance attribution
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, MSCI Brazil, Factset, gross of fees in GBP to 30th April 2018. Data for Total Attribution shown (stock selection plus country allocation). Attribution may not match official returns due to differences in systems rounding. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results
JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc - Year ending 30th April 2018
Sector attribution (%)
Attribution summary
Stock: 1.09Sector: -5.77
Benchmark MSCI Brazil 10/40 Total Return (Net) Index
Top 5 Contributors Relative weight (%)
Stock return (%)
Impact (%)
BRF -1.93 -1.42 1.06
CCR -0.11 -14.48 0.54
Cielo -2.20 -15.09 0.53
Iochpe Maxion* 1.76 46.46 0.50
Localiza Rent A Car 1.36 61.99 0.49
Top 5 Detractors Relative weight (%)
Stock return (%)
Impact (%)
Petrobras -9.00 44.33 -2.37
Suzano Papel E Celulose -0.77 31.82 -0.82
Fleury* 3.78 -11.46 -0.74
Fibria Celulose -1.30 106.64 -0.73
Vale -2.17 36.64 -0.71
11
9.7
4.8
2.61.8
0.7
-0.6-2.2 -2.6 -3.0
-3.8
-8.9-11.0
-5.5
0.0
5.5
11.0
ConsumerDiscretionary
Financials Health Care InformationTechnology
Industrials Real Estate Telecoms Utilities ConsumerStaples
Materials Energy
Active and absolute sector positions
Sector positioning
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice.
JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc as of 31st July 2018
Portfolio weight (%) 17.0 35.1 4.0 3.8 8.5 1.0 1.1 2.4 8.8 15.1 1.8
Benchmark MSCI Brazil 10/40 Total Return (Net) Index
Relative to benchmark (%)
12
Top 5 overweights Fundweight (%)
Relative position (%)
Fleury Sa 3.6 3.6
Itau Unibanco 9.7 2.8
Raia Drogasil 4.3 2.3
Lojas Renner 4.8 2.3
IRB Brasil Resseguros 2.7 2.0
Top 10 Holdings Fund weight (%)
Itau Unibanco 9.7
Vale 9.4
Banco Bradesco 7.8
B3 6.5
Lojas Renner 4.8
Raia Drogasil 4.3
Fleury 3.6
Gerdau 3.4
Banco Do Brasil 2.9
Ambev 2.8
Portfolio positions
Top 5 underweights Fundweight (%)
Relative position (%)
Petrobras 0.0 -8.4
Fibria Celulose 0.0 -2.1
Rumo 0.0 -1.8
Banco Santander 0.0 -1.7
Klabin 0.0 -1.6
JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc as of 31st July 2018
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The Fund is an actively managed portfolio. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice.
Benchmark MSCI Brazil 10/40 Total Return (Net) Index
13
A disconnect between operational and stock performance
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results
Lojas Renner YTD return -30.6% Fleury YTD return -22.1%
51
7366
67
1116.3%
7.2%
6.1%
5.4%
8.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18
Source: Lojas Renner company reports. Data of end March 31 2018. Year to date returns as of 28th June 2018.Blue line = MarginGreen arrow = Increased margin between quarters
Source: Fleury company reports. Data of end March 31 2018. Year to date returns as of 28th June 2018 Blue line = MarginGreen arrows = Increased margin between quarters
Lojas Renner Net Profit (R$ MM) and margin (%) Fleury Net Profit (R$ MM) and margin (%)
229
321
82 96
10.9%
13.5% 13.9%14.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2016 2017 1Q17 1Q18
+40.2%CAGR 1Q14 – 1Q18=21.6% +66.4%
18.2%
Net Profit (R$mm) Net Profit (R$mm)Margin (%) Margin (%)
14
Mercado Libre: Largest e-commerce player in Latin America
Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, company reports. Data as of December 2017. The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. The use of their logos is in no way an endorsement of those companies by J.P. Morgan Asset Management nor is it intended to indicate an endorsement of J.P. Morgan Asset Management by those companies.
Economics: – Strong historical and expected sales growth
– MELI has funded all growth internally since IPO (2007), while maintaining healthy operating margins and solid balance sheet
Duration:– Growing e-commerce industry – market with over 550 million
potential customers
– Low e-commerce penetration in total retail sales in Latin America
Corporate governance:– Solid and knowledgeable top management team – long track
record in the industry
– Board of Directors composed of 10 members – 80% independent
– Paid dividends averaging 46% of the net income since 2011
15
Reinsurance: IRB Brasil Resseguros
The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. The use of their logos is in no way an endorsement of those companies by J.P. Morgan Asset Management nor is it intended to indicate an endorsement of J.P. Morgan Asset Management by those companies.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
The company offers air travel, fire and agricultural insurance services
An undisputed leader with highly profitable operation
IRB Stock Price (USD)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan2018
Jan2018
Feb2018
Mar2018
Mar2018
Apr2018
May2018
May2018
Jun2018
Jul2018
Jul2018
Aug2018
IRB Brazil Resseguros
MSCI Brazil 10-40
Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, company reports. Data as of 31st March 2018.
Economics: – End of reinsurance monopoly in 2007. Dominant market share
with over 36%. 6x larger than the 2nd player– The business has a natural hedge for economic cycles between
underwriting results and investment income.
Duration:– Local operation with local presence gives them agility,
empowerment of local management and flexibility for claims regulation
– The current competitive environment appears more benign. Others in the sector are taking a more conservative approach on taking on risk given the current macroeconomic scenario of recovery and political uncertainties
Corporate governance:– Corporate Governance of highest standards with Novo Mercado
listing. 39.3% Free float and 3 major banks own 41.5% of the company. Shareholder agreement until 2033.
16
ConclusionJPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc as of 31st July 2018
Although mixed recent macro trends, lower than expected economic recovery, yet lower inflation and interest rates, we continue to believe that the primary drivers of the market this year will be the gradual recovery of the Brazilian economy and positive election outcome. This will give the consumer the needed confidence to boost the recovery alongside increased investment from corporates.
As in many elections in Brazil, market volatility may offer opportunities to add to quality names at attractive valuations.
Our portfolio continues to focus on long-standing investments in high-quality companies, as well as some cyclical stocks positioned for strength in the commodities sector and a recovery in the local economy.
The opinions and views expressed here are those held by the author at the date of publication, which are subject to change and are not to be taken as or construed as investment advice
17
Investment objective and risk profile
Please refer to the Investor Disclosure Document, latest annual report, and Key Information Document (KID) for more information relating to the Company.
JPMorgan Brazil Investment Trust plc (the Company) as of 31st July 2018
Risk profile Exchange rate changes may cause the value of underlying overseas investments Exchange to go down as well as up.
Investments in emerging markets may involve a higher element of risk due to Investments political and economic instability and underdeveloped markets and systems. Shares may also be traded less frequently than those on established markets. This means that there may be difficulty in both buying and selling shares and individual share prices may be subject to short share short term price fluctuations.
External factors may cause an entire asset class to decline in value. Prices and External values of all shares or all bonds could decline at the same time, or fluctuate in response to the performance of individual companies and general market conditions.
This trust may utilise gearing (borrowing) which will exaggerate market This movements both up and down.
This trust may also invest in smaller companies which may increase its risk profile.
The share price may trade at a discount to the Net Asset Value of the company.
The single market in which the Trust primarily invests, in this case Brazil, may be the subject to particular political and economic risks and, as a result, the trust may be more volatile than more broadly diversified trusts.
Investors should be aware that there is a Brazilian Presidential Decree in force, as Investors amended from time to time, detailing the current IOF tax rate (Tax on Financial Operations), that applies to foreign exchange inflows and outflows. The application of the IOF tax may reduce the Net Asset Value per share.
The key risks facing the Company and the mechanisms in place to monitor and measure these risks are set out in the Company’s annual report, a copy of which is available from its website, www.jpmam.co.uk/investmenttrust.
Investment objectiveAims to generate total returns, primarily in the form of capital, from a portfolio primarily invested in Brazilian focused companies. The Company may also invest up to 10% in companies in other Latin American countries. Equity holdings may be reduced to a minimum of 60% of gross assets if it is considered beneficial to performance.
18
Important information
This is a marketing communication and as such the views contained herein are not to be taken as an advice or recommendation to buy or sell any investment or interestthereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document has been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P.Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P.Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are unless otherwise stated,J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all inclusive and are notguaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them mayfluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverseeffect on the value, price or income of the products or underlying overseas investments. Past performance and yield are not reliable indicators of current and future results. There isno guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. Furthermore, whilst it is the intention to achieve the investment objective of the investment products, there can be noassurance that those objectives will be met. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliatesworldwide. To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply with our legal and regulatory obligations andinternal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our EMEA Privacy Policy www.jpmorgan.com/emea-privacy-policy. Investment is subject to documentation (Investor Disclosure Document, Pre-sale Cost & Charges and Key Information Document), copies of which can be obtainedfree of charge from JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited. This communication is issued by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated inthe United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No: 01161446. Registered address: 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.
Material ID: 0903c02a82370861
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