WillaBikeRideaDayKeeptheDoctorAway?
EvidencefromtheCalgaryCycleTrackPilotProject
JanessaLinton
UniversityofCalgary
Abstract
Governmentspendingonhealthcarerelatedtochronicdiseasecausedbyinactivityandobesityisgrowinginyoungadults(Macdonald,B.2007).Studieshaveshownthatanactivecyclistcommuteleadstoanincreaseinphysicalactivitythatishealthenhancing.Leadingtothequestion,doesbicycleinfrastructureimprovehealth?Thisstudydecomposesthisquestionintotwosegments;Willbicycleinfrastructurecauseanincreaseinbicycling?And;Whatarethehealthoutcomesassociatedwithincreasedbicycling?MystudyusestheCityofCalgaryCycleTrackPilotProjectasalaboratoryforthreereasons:1)PriortothepilotprojectCalgaryhadnoprotectedbikelanes;2)Calgarywinterweatherconditionsaredifferentfromtheexistingliterature;3)Calgaryhasanextensivebicycleusagedatasetthatallowsforcasualestimationstrategytobeused.Preliminarybicyclelevelcalculationsrevealedanincreaseinbicycletripsof670,113.TogenerateestimatesthatcapturethecasualeffectofbicycleinfrastructureonbicycleuseinCalgary.First,IcomparetheweathertrendsbeforeandaftertheCalgarypilotproject,thenIuseadifference-in-difference(DD)estimationstrategy.Ifindthatweatherwasnotaninfluencingfactorontheincreaseinbicycleuse,andtheDDproducedclosetocasualresults.TheDDestimatedtheincreaseinbicycleusagetobe592,119tripswhichresultedinhealthsavingsof$11.8M,thiswascalculatedfromhealthcareexpendituressavedandthevalueofastatisticallifesaved.Expressedinnetpresentvaluewitha5%discount,thebicycleinfrastructureresultedin$237Minhealthbenefitsoveraninfinitetime-horizon.
Econ695/697,ResearchMethods
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1 Introduction
Healthresearchershavefoundthatchronicdiseaserelatedtoobesityandphysicalinactivityis
ontherise(Ojaetal.,1998).Anincreaseinphysicalactivityof30minutesadayisconsidered
healthenhancing,leadingtothepreventionofrelatedchronicdisease(Rutteretal.,2003).
Specifically,studieshaveshownthattheprimaryhealthbenefitsthatarisefromcyclist
infrastructureisreduced“mortalityduetoconditionssuchascardiovasculardiseaseandcancer
asaresultofincreasedphysicalactivity”(Rutteretal.,2003).Consequently,bicycle
infrastructureisaviablewayforcommuterstosafelyincreasetheirphysicalactivitywhichwill
leadtohealthimprovements.Therefore,itisimportanttoinvestigateifbicycleinfrastructure
improveshealth.Todothis,Iexploretwoquestions:(1)Willbicycleinfrastructurecausean
increaseinbicycleuse?(2)Whatarethehealthbenefitsassociatedwithincreasedbicycleuse?
Youngadultshavehadalargedecreaseintheirlevelofphysicalactivity,andcycling
tripshavesignificantlydeclinedasaresultofgreatercarownership(Macdonald,B.2007).Inan
efforttocurbthistrend,bicyclelaneinfrastructureinanurbancitycenterisusedby
governmentstoencouragephysicalactivityintodailyroutines.Rutteretal.(2003)referenceda
studydoneinCopenhagenthatsupportsthelinkageofincreasedbicycleuseinapopulation
andhealthbenefitsassociatedwiththis.Thestudyhadasamplepopulationof30,640;of
these,6,954adults(aged20-60years)wereregularcyclecommuters.Thestudyfollowedup
withthepopulationoveranaverageof14.4years.Themeantimeoftravelwasthreehoursa
weekforthecyclecommenters,and“theirrelativeriskofdeathwas0.72(95%CI0.57,0.91),
afteradjustmentforage,gender,educationalstatus,leisure-timephysicalactivity,BMI,blood
lipidlevels,smoking,andbloodpressure.”(Ruttereta.l,2003,p.90).Theresultssuggestedthat
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acyclistis28%lesslikelytodiefromanycausethananon-cyclist,inanygivenyear.Asthe
abovestudyhasshown,aswellassimilarstudies,publicfundsusedbypolicymakersto
investmentinbicycleinfrastructurecanbeoffsetbyasignificantdecreaseinhealthcarecosts
andexpenditures.Theyalsocanresultinareductioninexternalcosts,suchasinairpollution
andnoise,andpersonalsavingsinfuelconsumptionandparkingfeesassociatedwithdrivinga
motorizedvehicle.Inmystudy,Iwilldeterminetheincreasedbicycleusecausedfrom
Calgary’snewbicycleinfrastructure,andIwillapproximatethehealthcaresavingsanda
statisticallifesavedfromtheinfrastructureinvestment.
Inthispaper,IusetheCityofCalgaryCycleTrackPilotProjectasalaboratoryto
continuetheresearchintheareaofurbanbicycleinfrastructure.Thepilotprojectisanetwork
ofprotectedbikelanesinthedowntowncoreofCalgary.InApril2014,TheCityofCalgary
approvedtheCentreCityPilotCycleTrackNetworkPilotProject,whichwasdesignedtoadd
bicycleinfrastructuretodowntownCalgarystreets,wheretherehadpreviouslybeenno
designatedbikinglanes.ThesebicyclelaneswereopenedinJune,2015,afterapublic
informationcampaignadvertisingtheprojecttothepublic.Thedesignofthebicyclelanesis
intendedtoencouragemorebicycletripsintoandoutofthedowntowncore,andtoreduce
conflictsbetweenpeoplewhoarewalking,bikinganddriving.
TheCityofCalgaryCycleTrackPilotProjectisnovelforthreereasons:(1)Priortothe
pilotprojectCalgaryhadnoprotectedbicyclelaneinfrastructure;(2)Calgary’swinterweather
conditionspermitmyresultstobemoreapplicabletootherCanadianandnorthernUnited
States(U.S.)cities;(3)TheCityofCalgaryoffersauniquedatasetthatallowsmyresearchto
formulatecausalresultsthatpresentamoreaccuratevaluefortheincreasedbicyclingachieved
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fromthenewbicycleinfrastructure.Thus,mystudyoffersadditionalinsightsandrealistic
resultsforcitiesthatcurrentlyhavenoorlittlebicycleinfrastructureinasimilarclimate.
Theexistingliteraturethatevaluatesbicyclelaneinfrastructurefallsintothree
categories.Thefirstareaofstudylinkstheincreaseincommutecyclingwithanincreasein
healthbenefits.Thisliteratureaimstoanswerthreemainquestions:(1)“Isthereadesireto
increasecyclinginsociety?”;(2)“Willcyclingresultinhealthbenefits?”;and(3)“Howcan
cyclingbeencouraged?”Asecondareaofliteraturedevelopedtoolsthatcanbeusedinbicycle
laneinfrastructureevaluation.Thegoalofthisliteratureistostreamlinetoolsthatmakefuture
workandpolicyanalysisinbicycleinfrastructureeasierandmoreeffective.Thethirdand
largestareaofliteratureusedexistingbicycleinfrastructureinformationfromcitiesinEurope,
theUnitedKingdom(UK)andtheU.S.toestablishthecurrentandfuturebenefitsofinstalling
bicyclinginfrastructure.However,Ifindthattheliteratureinthethirdareacontainslimited
datasourcesandfocusesonspeculatingaboutfuturebicycleusebasedonhypothetical
infrastructureincreases.Theresearchersinthethirdareaalsouseddifferenttechniquesto
establishamethodthatisbasedontheirownliteraturereview,infrastructuredesign,and
requiredresearchoutcomes,thusmakingcomparisonsbetweendifferentbicycleinfrastructure
Mypaperaddressesthequestion,whatarethehealthbenefitsassociatedwithpublic
investmentinnewurbanbicyclepathinfrastructure?Asdiscussedabove,theCityofCalgary
PilotProjectisnovelintheareaofstudysurroundingurbanbicycleinfrastructure.To
determinetheincreasedbicycletrips,theCityofCalgaryinstalleddatacollectionmetersto
trackdailybicycletripsonthenewlybuiltbicyclelanes.IusetheCityofCalgarydatato
determinetheincreasedbicycleusagefromthebicyclelanepilotproject.Toestablishmore
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rigorousresults,Iapproachthisasacasualquestion,“Hasthebicycleinfrastructurecausedthe
increaseinbicycletripsinCalgary?”Tomakeacausallinkbetweenthebicycleinfrastructure
andincreasedbicycleusage,Iemployadifference-in-difference(DD)estimationstrategy.
IntuitivelytheDDestimationis,determiningthedifferencebetweenintersectionsonandoff
thebicycleinfrastructurebothbeforeandaftertheinfrastructureisinstalled.Onceyouknow
thedifferencesbothbeforeandafter,Ifindthedifferencebetweenthem,resultinginthevalue
ofincreasedbicycleuseaftertheinstallationofbicycleinfrastructurecausedonlybythe
intersectionsonthebicycleinfrastructureroadways.BydeterminingthatCalgary’snewbicycle
infrastructureisresponsiblefortheincreaseinbicycleuseinthedowntowncore,Ithen
approximatethehealthcaresavingsandastatisticallifesavedfromtheinfrastructure
investment.Ideterminethevalueofastatisticallifesavedandanypotentialsavingsinhealth
careexpendituresbyusingwell-establishedcalculationsandtoolsfromtheliterature.
Topreviewmymainresults,IfindoverthefirstyearoftheCalgaryCycleTrackPilot
Projectbeingopenitsawanannualincreaseinbicycleuseof592,199trips.Thisresultedinan
annualhealthcareexpendituresavingsof$441,250.32.Attheincreasedlevelofbicyclingthe
HealthEconomicAssessmentToolcalculatesthat2deathsareprevented,equatingtoan
annualvaluedof$11,408,000.Inaggregate,thenetpresentvalueofthetotalhealthbenefits
overaninfinitetimehorizonare$236,985,006fromtheincreaseinbicycleusagecausedbythe
newbicycleinfrastructureinCalgary.
Myworkfitswithinthisgrowingliteraturethatevaluatesgovernmentinvestmentin
bicyclelaneinfrastructure,mypapermakesthreemaincontributionstotheliterature.First,
typicalworkinthisareaestimateshowmuchbicyclinghasincreasedorapproximatesfuture
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increasesofbicycleusefromaproposedbicycleinfrastructureproject.Myworkisuniquein
thatIamabletomakeuseofarichdatasetfromtheCityofCalgary,whichcontainsdaily
bicycletripcountsandhistoriccountsofbicycletripsintoandoutofthedowntowncore.Thus,
Iamabletoprovideamoreaccurateandcasualrelationshipbetweenbicycleinfrastructureand
anincreaseinbicycling.Secondly,previousstudiesonlyexploredexpandingcurrentbicycle
infrastructure.However,myworkwiththeCalgarydatawillprovideresultsrelatedtonew
bicycleinfrastructure.Myworkwillalsoofferresultsthatarespecificforcitiesthatcurrently
donothavebicycleinfrastructureandarelookingtoinstallsuchinfrastructure.Finally,my
workisnovelbecauseCalgary’sweatherconditionsareunique1andhavethepotentialtohave
asignificanteffectontheresults,incontrasttopreviousstudiesthathaveusedcitiesthathave
abicyclefriendlyclimate.
2LiteratureReview
Thissectiondetailsthreemaincategoriesofliteratureintheareaofbicycleinfrastructure
identificationandevaluations,thatwereoutlinedintheintroduction.
2.1HealthBenefitsfromBicycling
Ojaetal.’s(1998)paperisrelevantbecauseitprovidedtheevidenceandresearchthat
validatedtheneedforfutureworkintheliteratureonthehealthbenefitsofhavingbicycling
infrastructureinplace.Ojaetal.(1998)ranthreedifferentstudiestoexaminetheutility
achievedbycommutingtoworkbywalkingorcycling.Thefirststudywasaquestionnaire
1ThroughoutthewinterCalgarycanhaveseverecoldsnaps,althoughrarelylastingmorethanaweek.Theweathercanchangeveryquickly,fromdaytodayandevenhourtohour.Wintercanbelongandautumncanshort,asCalgarycanseefrostandsnowfallsstartinginmid-September(CalgaryWeather&Climate|VisitCalgary.2016).
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surveyusedtoevaluatethestudypopulations’desiretowalkorcycletoworkifcycling
infrastructurewasinplace,oriftheywouldcontinuetousecurrentmodesoftransportation.
Thesafetyofpedestrianandcyclistswasfoundtobeamajorissuethatpreventspeoplefrom
anactivecommute.Thisiscategorizedasacriticalimpedimentforchangingone’sbehaviourto
includeanactivecommuteasaformofhealth-enhancingphysicalactivity(HEPA)intohisorher
routine.ThemainfocusofOjaetal.’s(1998)studywasarandomizedtrialthatdeliveredthe
followingresults:
Regularwalkingandcyclingforaone-wayaverageofabout30minutesduring
commutingtoworkwithself-pacedspeedimprovedaerobicfitness,decreased
cardiovascularstraininsubmaximalstandardwork,increasedtheuseoffatsas
anenergysourceinphysicalactivity,andcausedslightfavorablechangesin
bloodHDLcholesterolinhealthyyoungtomiddle-agedadultsoflowto
moderatephysicalfitness.(Ojaetal,1998)
Overalltheresultsshowedthatphysicalactivityfromactivecommutingisconsideredto
behealthenhancing.Thefinalsurveystudyfoundthatworkplacepromotionofanactive
commutewouldbewidelyacceptedbyemployees,butsafetyoftheseactivitieswasa
prerequisite.MypaperwillspeciallyaddressthisconcernastheCityofCalgaryprojecthas
installedprotectedbikelanes.Ojaetal.(1998)foundthatwalkingandcyclingtoworkarethe
easiestroutine-basedwaysforthecommunityandgeneralpopulationtoincreasetheirphysical
activity.Althoughthispaperdoesnotdeterminethespecificbenefitsthatareachievedbyan
increaseinbicycling,itprovidedtheunderpinningoffutureworkandthevalidityoftheresults.
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2.2HealthEconomicAssessmentTool(HEAT)
Rutteretal.(2003)evaluatedhowincreasedphysicalactivityfromcyclingcanchangehealth
outcomesinsocietyandfoundsimilarresultstoOjaetal(1998):notonlydoesithelpin
physicalandmentalhealthwellnessbutitalsoreducestherisksofchronichealthdiseases.In
thisliterature,Rutteretal.(2003)identifiedtheneedforeffectiveinterventionstopromotean
increaseinactivecommuting.Thetypeofpoliciesneededtointervenerequireeconomic
evolutionandasophisticatedwaytoevaluatethebenefitsrealizedfromnewbicycling
infrastructure.ThispaperdevelopedatoolcalledtheHealthEconomicAssessmentTool(HEAT)
forwalkingandcycling.Thetoolmodelstheeconomicvalueofreducedmortalityfromcycling.
AlthoughRutteretal.(2003)developedthetooltohelpcreatemorecompleteeconomiccases
usedtojustifyspendingoninfrastructurethatwouldincreasecommunityphysicalactivity,they
donotusethetoolintheirpaper.Myworkusesthetoolandidentificationstrategydescribed
byRutteretal.(2003).Thistoolisimportantasitallowsforbicycleinfrastructurestudiesto
useaconsistentapproachtoobtainingresults.Mypaperisalsoabletouseauniquedataset
andinfrastructuremodeltocomplementthisliterature.
2.3BicycleInfrastructureAnalysis
Thetwopaperintheliteraturethataremostcloselyrelatedtomypaperare,Saelensminde
(2004)andGotschi(2011).Bothpaperspresentedstudiesthatevaluatedthebenefitsofadding
additionalbicyclelanestoexistingbicyclinginfrastructure.Saelensminde(2004)studiedthree
citiesinNorway,andthegoaloftheresearchwastoinfluencegovernmentspendingonbicycle
infrastructuretopromoteaneasierandsaferwayforpeopletochoosetobicycleasameansof
transportation.Ineachofthethreecities,thebenefitssubstantiallyoutweighedthecosts.In
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particular,itwasseenthatthebenefitfromreducedcostsoflesssevereandseverediseases
andailmentsaresubstantial.Theresultsshowedabenefit-costratioofmagnitudesgreater
thanone,foreachindividualcity.
Gotschi(2011)isthefirststudyofitskindintheU.S.Thisstudyevaluatedthree
differentfuturebicycleinfrastructurescenariospotentiallybeingaddedtoPortland,Oregon’s
currentbicycleinfrastructure.Thisanalysiswasconductedusingdataonbicyclecountsin
Oregonandutilizedadiscretechoicemodelthatconvertedtripsintomiles.Thebenefitsthis
analysisconsidersarethehealthcaresavingsfromreducedmortalityandthesavedvalueof
statisticallives.Theresultsfromthethreedifferenceinvestmentplansallhavearatiogreater
thanone.Gotschi(2011)foundthatastheinvestmentplans’costsincreasedsignificantly
acrossthethreeplans,thebicyclemilesandannualtripsdonot.Myworkwillbuildonthis
areaofliteratureanddeterminecausallinkbetweenhealthbenefitsandbicycleinfrastructure.
3Data
Thissectionprovidesfurtherdetailsaboutthestudylocation—theCalgaryCycleTrackPilot
Project.Thisisfollowedbyapreliminarydescriptionofthedataandthedatalimitations.
3.1DescriptionofStudyArea
Thisstudyutilizestheuniquecyclist-countdatabasetheCityofCalgaryhasbeencompilingboth
beforeandaftertheCycleTrackPilotProjectimplementation.Thedatabaseconsistsofdata
collectedbyEco-Countermachines.Theseareautomatedbicyclistcountingmachinesplaced
onthecycletrack,aswellasonStephenAvenueandthePeaceBridge.Thedatabasealso
includesannualdatafromtheCityofCalgary’scordontrafficcountsthatareconductedinMay,
bicyclecounts,andcentrecitybicyclevolumemaps.ThisextensivedatabasemakesCalgarya
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goodlaboratorytostudythehealthoutcomesgeneratedbytheimplementationofnewbicycle
infrastructure.SimilartothemajorityofCanada’sprovincesandNortheasternU.S.states,
Calgaryexperiencescoldwinterymonthsandashortsummerseason.Unlikecurrentliterature
thatevaluatestheoutcomesofurbanbicycleinfrastructure,mystudyonCalgarywillprovide
resultsspecifictoCalgary’suniqueweatherconditionsandthecycletrackpilotprojectthathas
introducedCalgarytoitsfirstsetofprotectedbicyclelanesinthedowntownarea.
Approximatelyayearago,Calgaryimplementeditsfirstsetofphysicallyseparated
bicyclelanesinthedowntownarea.Previoustothis,Calgaryhadinstalledmanykilometersof
multiusepathwaysaroundthecityandhashadunprotecteddesignatedbikeroutesinthe
downtown,makingtheCycleTrackPilotProjectthefirstofitskindinCalgary.Thecycletrack
includesbicyclelaneson5th,St.from3rdAve.S.W.to17thS.W.,on12thAve.,from11thSt.S.W.
to4thSt.S.E.,andon8th/9thAve.,from11thSt.S.W.to3rdSt.S.W.andMacleodTrailsto4thSt.
S.E.Figure1belowshowsthenewcycletrackrouteand10Eco-Countermachinesinstalledto
collectdailybicycletripdata.Thepilotprojectcontainsover5kmofprotectbikelanes,with
the5thStreetsectionbeing1.4kmandthe12thAve.sectionbeing2.5kminlength.
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3.2Data
TogainanunderstandingofpreviousbiketrendsinCalgarybeforethepilotproject,Ireviewthe
censusdataandbicyclevolumemaps.Iusethe2014CivicCensustocollectdatatoformulatea
preliminaryunderstandingofbicycleuseandpatternswithinCalgaryandthedifferentwards.
Inadditiontothis,Ihaveaccesstobicyclevolumemapsthatstartedin2012until2015.The
mapsprovideindepthdetailsofthenumberofbicyclistsatmultiplecorridorsthroughoutthe
citycentre.Iextractthedatapointsonthemapsfrom2013to2015,Iusethisdatato
understandthebicycleusetrendsinCalgarybothbeforeandaftertheCalgaryCycleTrackPilot
Projectstarted.Ithenconstructapaneldatasettobeusedinthedifference-in-difference
estimation,withthe2013to2015volumemapdatapoints.
Theautomatedbicycletripcountersprovideareliablemethodformetocollectand
analyzeCalgary’sbicycleinfrastructureusageintoandoutofdowntownduringweekdayssince
thepilotprojectopeninginJune2015.Thedataispublicallyavailabledaily,andEco-Counter
saysthatthecountersare97%accurate(TheCityofCalgary-BikeData,2016).Theanalysisof
thebikedatawillincorporatedatafromJune2015untilJuly2016.Unlikeotherstudies,Iam
abletoincludewintermonthsbecausetheCityofCalgarymaintainsthebicycleinfrastructure
yearround.Boththecensusandvolumemapdatacombinedwiththerecenttripcounterdata
areusedtodeterminetheincreaseinbicycletripsachievedfromthenewinfrastructure.
InadditiontotheCityofCalgarybicycledata,IcollectandanalysisCalgary’shistoric
weatherdataprovidedbyEnvironmentandClimateChangeCanada.Icollectquarterlydatafor
Calgarybothfourquartersbeforeandafterthepilotprojectopening.ThemetricsIcollectare
rainfall(mm),snowfall(cm),precipitation(mm),meantemperature(C),snowonground(cm),
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numberofraindays,numberofsnowdays,numberofprecipitationdaysandnumberofwind-
chilldays.
3.3DataDescription
Figure2below,demonstratesthatbicyclingasamodeoftransportationtoworkin2014is
relativelysmall.Bicyclingaccountsfor1.39%ofcitywidemodeoftransportationtoworkin
2014,thisisupslightlyfrom0.87%in2011(2014CivicCensusResults.2014).Consequently,
thenaturalincreasefrom2011to2014isinsignificantforbicycletransportationtowork.
Figure2alsoshowsthatpeoplewhodrovealonetoworkastransportationmodeholdsthe
highestshare,at67.39%in2014,whichisdownfrom69.58%in2011(2014CivicCensusResults.
2014).Accordingly,thereissubstantialopportunityforgrowthwithinthecategoryofbicycling
toworkinCalgary.
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Table1representsthetopfivewardsinCalgarywherepeopleuseabicycleasthemode
oftransportationtowork.(SeeappendixAforadetailedmapofwardpositioninCalgary).The
topfivewardsoutof14totalwardsrepresents78%ofthetotalbicyclecommuters.These
areasarelocatedclosetothedowntowncoreandarelikelytobeimpactedthemostbythe
CalgaryCycleTrackPilotProject.
Figure3below,exemplifiesthesignificantincreaseinaveragedailytripsfrom2014to
2015.ThisinformationcombinedwithFigure2andTable1leadmetoconcludethattherewas
anincreaseinbicycleusefrom2014and2015becauseofthenewbicycleinfrastructure.
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Table2providesafewsummarystatisticsofthedatafromsixofthecountersalongthe
newbicycleinfrastructurepaths.
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4Methodology
Afterreviewingseveralstudiesincluding,Saelensminde(2004),Macdonald(2007),andGotschi
(2011),Ifindthathealthcaresavingsandsavedvalueofstatisticallivesaremostsignificant
outcomesachievedbybicyclinginfrastructure.Tocalculatethevalueofhealthcaresavingsand
savedvalueofstatisticallivesIwillusebothestimatesdevelopedinpreviousstudiesandthe
bicyclelevelestimatesIconstructedempirically.Ifirstbuildpreliminarybicyclelevelestimates
usingthedatadescribedintheabovesection.Leadingtotheempiricalquestiontobe
answered:Didthebicyclelaneinfrastructureactuallycausetheincreaseinbicycling?The
papersmainobjectiveistounderstandingthecausalrelationshipbetweenthebicyclelane
infrastructureandbicycletrips,thendeterminethehealthoutcomesofthisincreaseinbicycle
use.Thetwocaveatsindeterminingtheactualincreaseinbicycleusefromthebicycle
infrastructureare:weatherinfluencesandbicycletrafficbeingre-routedtothenewbicycle
lanes.Stepsareillustratedinthissection.
4.1 Estimation Strategy
To establish the preliminary levels of the increase in bike usage, I first use the bicycle volume
maps from 2012 to 2015, and collect data points from six locations on the map that match with
the current counter location along the new bicycle infrastructure. The six points are
predominantly end points of the routes, they provide an understanding of the volume coming into
or leaving the downtown core on the new bicycle infrastructure. I then determine the percentage
increase of bike trips from 2014 to 2015. I find that 2012 to 2014 showed little to no growth,
therefore I take the percentage increase from 2014 to 2015 to be exclusively because of the new
bicycle infrastructure. I then use this percentage increase, combined with the actually bike
volume from July 1st 2015 until June 30th 2016 (one full year post bicycle infrastructure opening)
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todeterminetheactuallyincreaseoverthistimeperiod.Thefinalstepistoaggregatethe
increasedbicycleusefromthesixcounterlocationstogetafinalvalueofincreasedbicycleuse.
Thenextstepistodetermineifweatherhadaninfluenceonthepossiblebicycleusage
increase.Toverifythis,IcomparefourquartersbothbeforeandaftertheCycleTrackPilot
Projectopened,asofJuly1st2015.Iidentifyeightmetrics:rainfall(mm),snowfall(cm),mean
temperature(C),precipitation(mm),snowonground(cm),numberofprecipitationsdays,
numberofraindaysandnumberofsnowdays.
Finally,Iuseadifference-in-difference(DD)estimationstrategytodetermineifthereis
anincreaseinbicycleusealongthenewbicycleinfrastructure,ifso,isitcausedfromthe
bicycleinfrastructureitself?Iestimateaseriesofregressionstoevaluatethedifference
betweenbicycletripsonroadswithbicycleinfrastructureandroadswithnon-bicycle
infrastructureformallyacrosstime.Theregressionsarebasedonmodelofthegeneralform,
BicycleTripsit=b0+b1Dummy_NewBikeRoutei+b2Dummy_2015t+bDDInteraction2015t_NewBikeRoutei+eit(1)
whereiindexescountlocationonvolumemap;tindexesyears(2013,2014or2015);
BicycleTripsitisdependentvariableincludedinthepaneldatasetthatIextractedfromthe
bicyclevolumemaps;Dummy_NewBikeRouteiisadummyvariablethattakesthevalueof1if
bicyclecountintersectionisonthenewbicycleinfrastructurerouteand0otherwise;
Dummy_2015tisadummyvariablethattakesthevalueof1inpostbicycleinfrastructuretime
periods(2015)and0otherwise(2013and2014);Interaction2015t_NewBikeRouteiisthe
interactionterm,generatedbymultiplyingthetwodummies;andeitistheerrorterm.
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IntuitivelytheDDestimationis,determiningthedifferencebetweenintersectionson
andoffthebicycleinfrastructurebothbeforeandaftertheinfrastructureisinstalled.Onceyou
knowthetwodifferencesbothbeforeandafter,Ifindthedifferencebetweenthem,resulting
inthevalueofincreasedbicycleuseaftertheinstallationofbicycleinfrastructurecausedonly
bytheintersectionsonthebicycleinfrastructureroadways.Allintersectionsthatarenot
includedonthebicycleinfrastructureroadwaysactasthecounterfactualtothetreatedpoints
afterthepilotprojectwasinitiated.TheDDcounterfactualcomesfromthestrongcommon
trendsassumptionthatImaketoimplytheDDestimationstrategy.Thispresumesthat,absent
ofbicycleinfrastructuredifference,boththebicycleinfrastructureandnon-bicycle
infrastructureintersectionsshouldfollowthesametrend.
FormyregressionsIemploybothlog-linearandnon-log-linearspecificationtotheTrips
variable,thisenablesmetofindthebestfitforthedata.Iestimateeachregressionwithonlya
simplestandarderrorformula.ThecoefficientontheinteractiontermistheDDcasualeffect,
itcapturestheeffectonnewbicycleinfrastructureonbicycletrips.Iusethispercentage
increase,combinedwiththeactuallybikevolumefromJuly1st2015untilJune30th2016(one
fullyearpostbicycleinfrastructureopening)todeterminethebicycletripincreaseoverthis
timeperiod.Similartotheaggregationinthepreliminaryresults,Iaggregatetheincreased
bicycleusefromthesixcounterlocationstogetafinalvaluefortheincreasebicycleuse.
4.2HealthCareSavings
Tocalculatethehealthcaresavings,IwillfollowGotschi(2011).First,Gotschi(2011)
formulates,anaverageestimatedhealthcarecostsperinactiveperson.Twooftheestimates
takethetotalestimatedhealthcarecostsattributedtoinactivityintheUS,dividebytotal
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population,divideby0.75toadjustforadultpopulation,anddivideby0.48toadjustfor
proportionofinactivepeople.Theadjustmentof48%isfortheprevalenceofinactivityand
allowsfortheresultstobemoreconservative.Theaveragecostestimateis,$544perinactive
personperyear,inflatedto2008dollars(Gotschi,2011).ForthesecondstepGotschi(2011)
assumesthatthedifferencebetweenaninactiveandactivepersonin30minutesofphysical
activityperday.Therefore,itisassumedthat30minutesofbicyclingwillgiveanannualcredit
of$544.
Inthefinalsteps,Imaketheassumptionthateachtripis15minutesinlength,basedon
thebicycletracklengthandthe2014CivicCensusResults.
Annualhealthcaresavings=[daily30-minutesegments]*$544[annualcreditfordailysegment](2)
4.3Savedvalueofstatisticallives
IwillusetheHealthEconomicAssessmentTool2(HEAT)todeterminethevalueofreduced
mortalityduetobicycling.Asdiscussedintheliteraturereviewsection2.2,HEATwas
developedtosupportbicycleinfrastructureandpolicydiscussions,makingittheappropriate
toolformystudy.Theinputsitrequiresare,annualbicycletripsandtheaveragedistance
traveled.Asstatedpreviously,Iassumethateachtripis15minutesinlength.TheHEAT
estimatestheamountofsavedlivesandthevalueassociatedwitheachsavedlifeaccordingto
theinputs.Therefore,thistoolgeneratesresultsforthevalueofastatisticallifesavedexclusive
tomystudy.
4.4Validityofresults
2 http://www.heatwalkingcycling.org/index.php?pg=cycling&act=introduction
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Oneimportantcaveattomentionisthatotherfactorsareinvolvedthatarecontributing
totheincreaseinbicycleusageotherthanthebicycleinfrastructure.Toeasetheseconcerns,I
usetheDDestimationstrategytoconstructbicyclelevelestimatesthatanswermoreaccurately
ifthebicyclelaneinfrastructureactuallycausedanincreaseinbicycling,unlikeotherstudies
thatguessthepercentageincreasethatwillbeachievedfrombicycleinfrastructureprojects.
ThevalidityoftheDDapproachisgovernedbythestrongcommontrendsassumption
thatismade.Signifyingthat,thebicycletripstrendinnon-bicycleinfrastructureintersectionsis
similartothebicycletripstrendinbicycleinfrastructureintersectionsbeforethebicycle
infrastructureinstallation.Ifthisholdsthennon-bicycleinfrastructureintersectionsprovidea
validcounterfactualforintersectionsonbicycleinfrastructureroadspostbicycleinfrastructure
installation.Thisassumptionisdebatableiftrajectoriespriortothenewbicycleinfrastructure
weredifferent.Thetrajectorycanbeverifiedgraphicallyorwitharegressionbasedtestusing
pre-treatmentperiods.Mydataonlyhastwopre-treatmentperiods,thereforeIamunableto
verifythecommontrendsofthetreatedandcontrolbicyclepathsinthepre-treatmentperiod.
Icanmakearealisticassumptionthatthereisnoreasontobelievethatthecontrolandtreated
pathwayswereondifferenttrajectoriespriortothenewbicycleinfrastructureimplementation.
Nevertheless,thecommontrendsassumptioncannotbeverifiedbythedata,indicatingthe
resultsmaybebiased.
Theestimatescalculatedinthisstudyforhealthcaresavingsandsavedvalueof
statisticallivesareveryconservative.Toachievetheconservativeresults,Ididacriticalreview
ofthreestudiesthatcalculatedestimatesforsimilarhealthoutcomes.Thehealthcaresavings
valueisveryconservativeandisconstructedbyaveragingthreedifferenthighqualitystudies.
20
TheHEATiscustomizabletoindividualcasestudies,andhasbeendevelopedasanaccurateand
streamlineinterface.Overall,thecarefulconsiderationofthemethodologydesignleadstothe
generationconservativeandpracticalresults.
5ResultsandDiscussion
Toanswer,whatarethehealthbenefitsassociatedwithpublicinvestmentinnewurbanbicycle
infrastructure.First,IdeterminetheincreasedamountofbicyclinginCalgary,postbicyclelane
infrastructureinstallation.Thisisacausalquestionthatneedstobeidentified.Didthebicycle
laneinfrastructurecausetheincreaseinbicycleuseonthepilotprojectlaneways?Second,
oncethelevelsofbicyclingareknownIdeterminethehealthcaresavingsandthevalueof
statisticallivessaved.Resultsarepresentedinthefollowingsection.
5.1BicycleLevels
PreliminaryResults
Table3below,showsthereisanoverallincreaseinbicyclinglevelsfrom2014to2015,these
valuesarebasedSeptemberandOctoberaveragevolumedatafromtheCityofCalgarybicycle
volumemaps.Atsixofthecounterlocationsalongthenewbicyclepathstherehaswas
approximately1320tripsadayin2012,1840in2013andin2014asmalldecreasedownto
1780.BasedonthesevaluesIpredictedthatwithoutthebicyclelaneinfrastructurethe2015
valuewouldhavehadnogrowthfrom2014.Therefore,intable3Iwasabletoshowthatthe
sixcounterlocationalongthenewbicyclepathsallhaveovera200%increaseinbicycletrip
traffic,exceptcounter1.
21
Table3presentsthedatacollectedfromsixoftheeco-counteronthenewbicycle
paths,andshowsanincreaseof670,113tripsabovewhatwouldbeenexpectedalongthose
routeswithoutthenewinfrastructure.Table3providesaclearunderstandingoftheincrease
bicyclelevelsoveraone-yearperiodafterthebicycleinfrastructurewasinstalledinCalgary.
AlthoughIfindthereisanincreaseinbicycleusagealongthenewbicycleinfrastructure,table3
doesnotprovideacausallinkbetweentheincreasedbicycleusageandthenewbicycle
infrastructure.
WeatherInfluence
Figure3showsthatoverallweatherfromquarterthreeandfourin2014andquarteroneand
twoin2015donotvarysignificantlyfromthefourprecedingquarters2015and2016.The
weatherdatafrombeforeandafterthepilotprojectbicyclepathopeningshowsminimal
22
variation.Therefore,Icanconcludethatweathereffectshadminimalinfluenceonthe
increasedbicycletripsalongthenewpathsindowntownCalgary,asseenintable3.
23
Difference-in-DifferenceEstimation
Table4representstheresultsgeneratedbyrunningtwoseparateDDregressions,(1)usesnon-
log-linearspecificationoftripsand(2)usesalog-linearspecificationoftrips.Regression(1)DD
interactioncoefficientissignificantat0.1%andthenewbicycleinfrastructurehasapositive
influenceontrips.TheDDinteractioncoefficientprovidesanaverageincreaseof455tripson
thecountlocationfoundalongthenewbicycleinfrastructureroads.Regression(2)revealsthat
theDDinteractioncoefficientissignificantat0.1%andthenewbicycleinfrastructurehasa
positiveinfluenceontrips.TheDDinteractioncoefficientinregression(2)impliesthatthereis
a219%increaseinbicycletripsontheaveragecountlocationfoundalongthenewbicycle
infrastructure.Ifindthatthetotalincreasedtripsare,592119(seeAppendixBforfull
calculation),thisiscomparableto670,113,whichIcalculatedastheincreasedtripsinthe
preliminaryanalysis.
24
BothDDinteractioncoefficientsprovideevidencethattheincreaseinbicycleusealong
thenewbicycleinfrastructureislikelycausedbythenewbicycleinfrastructure.Althoughthe
DDestimationstrategyallowsmetomakeaclosetocausallink,thereisstillquestionofthe
validity.Mytwomainconcernsare:(1)Therobustnessoftheresultsasthestrongcommon
trendassumptionmadewiththeDDestimationisunverifiablewithmydata.Thecommon
trendassumptionintuitivelymeansthatintheabsenceofthebicycleinfrastructurethenon-
bicycleinfrastructureintersectionsfollowthesametrendasthebicycleinfrastructure
intersections.Therefore,normallytheDDcommontrendisverifiedbeforetheinstallationof
thebicycleinfrastructureandifitholds,theDDusesthenon-bicycleinfrastructure
intersectionsasareferencepointforwhatpaththebicycleinfrastructureintersectionswould
havefollowedifthebicycleinfrastructurewasn’tinstalled.Asaconsequenceofnotbeingable
toverifythecommontrendassumptionmyresultsmaybebiasedintwoways.(1)Theresults
maybeupwardbiased,ifforexample,theCityofCalgarychoose12thAvenue,5thStreet,8th
Avenueand9thAvenueasbicycleinfrastructureroadsbecausetheywereexperiencingalarger
increaseinbicycleusagethanotherroads.Conversely,iftheCityofCalgarychoose12th
Avenue,5thStreet,8thAvenueand9thAvenueasbicycleinfrastructureroadsbecausetheywere
experiencingasmallerincreaseinbicycleusagethanotherroads.(2)Therepotentiallycould
havebeenotherpoliciesduringthetimeframeofmystudythatinfluencedtheincreasein
bicycleuse.Forexample,ifworkplacessetupincentivetoencourageemployeestobicycleto
work,thiswouldcausetheresultstobeoverestimated.
25
5.2HealthValuationResults
Twohealthoutcomesassociatedwithpublicinvestmentinnewbicycleinfrastructurearehealth
caresavingsandvalueofastatisticallifesaved.Valuingthesetwohealthoutcomesisthefinal
stepofthispaper,theresultsarepresentedintable5.Itquantitativelyprovidesmeaningto
theincreaseinbicycleusagefromthenewbicycleinfrastructureinCalgary.SeeappendixCand
Dforthedetailedcalculationofsavedhealthcareexpendituresandinputdatausedinthe
HEAT,respectively.IwilldiscussiontheresultsundertheDDestimation,astheyprovidethe
mostaccurateresultsoftheincreaseinbicycleuse.
OverthefirstyearoftheCalgaryCycleTrackPilotProjectbeingopenitsawanannual
increaseinbicycleuseof592,199trips.Thisresultsinannualhealthcareexpendituresavings
of$441,250.32,meaningtheincreasedbicycletripssavedtax-payersfromputting$441,250.32
additionalfundsintohealthcare.AtthenewcurrentincreasedlevelofbicyclingtheHEAT
calculatesthat2deathsareprevented,equatingtoanannualvaluedof$11,408,000.
26
Overall,thenetpresentvalueofthetotalhealthbenefitsoveraninfinitetimehorizonare
$236,985,006.
5.3Discussion
Insummary,overthefirstyear,Calgaryhasseenahealthsavingsof$11.8M,byproviding
approximately5.4kmsofnewprotectbicycleinfrastructure,withaninvestmentcostof5.75M
(TheCityofCalgary-CycleTrackNetwork.2016).Icalculatedthenetpresentvalueofthetotal
healthbenefitstobe$236,985,006.Thisnetpresentvaluerepresentsthevalueofthe
infrastructureinfutureyearsinpresentdollars.Iusedadiscountfactorof5%forthe
calculation,thisdiscountalignswithSaelensminde,K.(2004),Saelensmindeuseda5%discount
butovera25-yearlifetimeoftheproject.Definingthenetpresentvalueisimportantto
recognizethefuturevalueofthebicycleinfrastructureproject.
Mostimportantly,Iwasabletodetermineaclosetocausalrelationshipbetweenthe
newbicycleinfrastructureinCalgaryandtheincreaseinbicycleusage.Ialsoverifiedthat
weatherpreandpostbicycleinfrastructurewasnotacontributingfactortotheincreasein
bicycleuse.TheDDfounda219%increaseinbicycleusagealongthebikepathsthatcontained
thenewbicycleinfrastructure.Finally,Iwasabletousethisdeterminationofthecasual
relationshiptolinkthenewbicycleinfrastructurewithhealthoutcomesandderiveamonetary
valuebetweentheoutcomesandthenewbicycleinfrastructureinCalgary.UsingtheDD
estimationstrategyistheimportantsteptoproduceresultsthatareparticularlyinfluentialfor
futurebicycleinfrastructureprojectsbothinCalgaryandothercitiesundersimilarconditions.
27
6Conclusion
Toconclude,myresearchrevealsthatTheCityofCalgaryCycleTrackPilotProjectresultedin
betterhealththroughtheincreaseinbicycleusage.Itgeneratedanetpresentvalueof$237M
fromtwohealthbenefits,healthcareexpendituresavingsandthevalueofastatisticallife
saved.Thisstudyisabletoprovideclosetocausalresultsthattellsusthatthebicycle
infrastructurethatCalgaryinstalledcausedanincreaseinbicycleuse.Ihopethisevidencefrom
CalgarymotivatesnewpoliciesandfundingforbicycleinfrastructureinCalgaryandothercities
thatareeagertoreduceobesityandinactivity,byencouraginganactivecommute.
28
AppendicesAppendixA.WardMapfromCalgaryCensus
29
AppendixB.Difference-in-DifferenceAggregationResults
Notes.Detailedtableofincreasedtripspercounterlocationandaggregationoftrips.ComparingbothpreliminaryresultsandDDestimationresults.AppendixC.CalculationsforAnnualHealthCareSavings
Annualhealthcaresavings=[daily30-minutesegments]*$544[annualcreditfordailysegment](1)PreliminaryResultsStep1:AnnualIncreaseTrips:670116(15minutesegments)Step2:30minutesegments,annually:670116/2=335058segments/yearStep3:numberof30minutesegmentsdaily:[(335058segments/year)/365day/year)]=917.97Step4:eachdailysegmentgetsa$544creditannually=$499,375.68Difference-in-DifferenceEstimationResultsStep1:Healthenhancingincreasedtrips:592119Step2:30minutesegments,annually:592119/2=296056segments/yearStep3:numberof30minutesegmentsdaily:[(296056segments/year)/365day/year)]=811.11Step4:eachdailysegmentgetsa$544creditannually=$441,243.84
Route Counter location
Annual Trip (July 1st 2015-June 30th 2016)
Estimated Increased Trips (Preliminary Results)
Estimated Increased Trips (DD Estimation Results)
8th Avenue #1, West of 8th Avenue
69,577 0 37807
Stephen Avenue
#3, East of 1st Street
180,637
140135 98154
12th Avenue #5, West of 8th Street W
198,827 144354 108038
#7, West of 3rd Street E
69,004 47028 37495
5th Street #8, North of 5th Avenue
217,946 127512 118427
#9, CPR underpass
353,709 211084 192198
Aggregate trips:
670113 592119
30
AppendixD.HEATInputData
PreliminaryResultsInputdata:Cyclingfromasinglepointintime.Totalnumberoftripsobserved:670113/365=1836,100%arecycletrips90%arereturntripsaveragedistanceof4km(15minutetrips,speedof16km/hr.)EvaluatethebenefitsofthiscurrentincreasedcyclingAveragepopulation:(about20-64Years)CrudedeathrateCanadaper100000=739(worldbank)5,800,000–valueofastatisticallife(ignoringcurrency)
Difference-in-DifferenceEstimationResultsInputdata:Cyclingfromasinglepointintime.Totalnumberoftripsobserved:592119/365=1622,100%arecycletrips90%arereturntripsaveragedistanceof4km(15minutetrips,speedof16km/hr.)EvaluatethebenefitsofthiscurrentincreasedcyclingAveragepopulation:(about20-64Years)CrudedeathrateCanadaper100000=739(worldbank)5,800,000–valueofastatisticallife(ignoringcurrency)
31
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