Jacek SzlachtaMaking Europe Open and
Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards
2050 (ET 2050)
Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Central Europe, Warsaw, 29 October
2014
From Project Specifications:
The 31 countries in the ESPON Monitoring Committee, have decided a vision-building process for the Europen territory with 2050 as time horizon that involves relevant stakeholders at European, national and regional level.
ET2050 Goal
ET2050 Consortium
Information about ET 2050 project
• Two horizons 2030 and 2050 • Baseline scenario and three territorial
scenarios: (A) market based growth favouring large metropoles; (B) Public policies promoting secondary city networks and (C) Local and European initiatives promoting small cities and less development regions
• For CEE countries the most promising scenario B
Adressing panel key questions
- What are the visions and scenarios for development of European Union and in the Central and Eastern Europe macro-region?
– Is it still reasonable to treat the CEE area as a single macro-region?
GDP Growth 2010-2030 (Baseline) by MASST3
GDP a.a.: 1,89 %45 regions bellow 1,00 %
Employment 2010-2030 by MASST3
Population Change 2010-2030 by MULTIPOLES
Population: from 514 to 530 mln inh.
A
European Territorial Strategy A : Promotion of Global Cities
B
European Territorial Strategy B: Promotion of Networks of Cities
C
European Territorial Strategy C: Promotion of Rural and Peripheral Regions
How Europe will develop if the current policies are not changed (1)
• Overall stability• Growing internal imbalances• Ageing becoming a common trend• Increasing and more diversified migration• Regional convergence turning into divergence• Increasing regional disparities• Slow reduction of unemployment and
pressure on salaries
How Europe will develop if the current policies are not changed (2)
• New global trade patterns• Expanding tourism• Different tendencies of transport development
at local, regional, European and transcontinental scale
• Decreasing energy and carbon intensity• Increasing urbanization• Climate change hitting territories
asymmetrically
Recommendations for the future
• Policy aims for a long term development of Europe are: openness and polycentricity.
• How to make it:• Connecting Europe Globally• Promoting co-development with neighbouring
countries• Unleashing regional diversity and endogenous
development• Supporting a balanced urban structure• Managing natural resources sustainability
Future related territorial challenges for CEE countries and regions
• Trap of middle income countries is already there• End of growing cohesion after economic crises of
2008• Growing internal disparities within CEE countries• Eastern border as external EU border for coming
decades with limited relations• Relatively decreasing accessibility compared with
Western and Northern Europe• Heavy outmigration and its consequences
Reports are available at:
www.espon.euwww.et2050.eu (working documents)
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