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J2, JSOTF NAIL
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TODAY IS:
21 MAR 13
C + 4
D 8 (Ready to attack)
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ClimatologyThis region is frequently traversed by storm systems. As a result temperatures can
vary significantly depending upon strength of system and location within the region
(lowlands generally being warmer than the highlands). These frequent storms also
create long lasting cloud decks and restrictions to visibility. A mixture of rain and
snow falls in the lowlands while mainly snow falls in the highlands.
VISIBILITY2 MILES (FOG, BLOWING SNOW) 50% OF THE TIMELESS THAN 2 MILES 25% OF THE TIMEGREATER THAN 2 MILES 25% OF THE TIME
WINDSPREVAILING FROM SE @ 6 KNOTSSTRONGEST WIND - 47 KNOTS
TYPICAL SKY CONDITIONSBROKEN CLOUDS LESS THAN 5000 FTTEMPERATURES
RECORD HIGH 91FAVERAGE HIGH 52FAVERAGE LOW 33FRECORD LOW -2FAVERAGE RH DAY 63%NIGHT 88%
PRECIPITATIONRECORD MONTHLY - 3.5 INCHES (MAR)1 INCH OF SNOW PER MONTH LOWLANDSMORE SNOW HIGHER ELEV. UP TO 7 FTAVERAGE MONTHLY - 1.1 INCHES
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Weather Forecast
MAR22 MAR23 MAR24 MAR25 MAR26
55/38 57/37 63/38 66/40 63/41
10%P 40%P 10%P 10%P 10%P
Sunny AM rain Sunny P/Cloudy P/Cloudy
Chm (+) (-) (+) (+) (+)
Air (+) (-) (+) (+) (+)
ISR (+) (-) (+) (+) (+)
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Weather Forecast
MAR27 MAR28 MAR29 MAR30
63/41 60/41 54/43 59/41
0%P 10%P 60%P 60%P
P/Cloudy Cloudy Showers Showers
Chm (+) (+) (-) (-)
Air (+) (+) (-) (-)
ISR (-) (-) (-) (-)
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00L 06L 12L 18L 24L
FAVORABLE MARGINAL UNFAVORABLE
GROUND RECCE
HELO ATTACK
PERSONNEL
OVHD RECON
AIRLIFT
UAV
CHEM
SMOKE
TRAFFICABILITY
CAS
AIR ASSAULT
Weather Effects / Not Considering Terrain
CEILING/VISIBILITY
CEILING/VISIBILITY/ICING
VISIBILITY
CEILING/ VISIBILITY
CLOUD COVER
WIND DEPENDENT
CEILING/VISIBILITY/ICING
MARGINAL IF HEAVY RAINFALL/SNOW MELT
WIND DEPENDENT
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CRITICAL FACTS
- AH is prepositioning forces along the border with AZ and occupying attack
positions (EUCOM)
- Can support OSC-E attack with 4 x DIVs with supporting IFC and Air
-AH has already deployed 20 x SCUDs and 8 x Shehab missiles; most probably
armed with Sarin gas(EUCOM)
- AH forces have deployed mobile missile launchers near the NW part of the city of
SALMAS; can range all of AZ and parts of GE/TR from all firing positions in AH
-Al Hussein variant of SCUD takes only five gallons of Sarin (AH variant RFId to
JTF)
- Chemical capabilities: AH is producing Sarin gas in chemical production facilities in
the southern city of QAZVIN
- AH forces are no longer engaged in hostilities with Iran
- AH internal opposition has been neutralized; suspension of internal media;
imposition of Sharia law
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CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS
- AH Forces capable of launching offensive operations into AZ NET
290001Z13MAR
- AH will disperse TELs for firing and, after launch, then move/use CC&D
- AH strategic targets include AZ infrastructure (with WMD)
- SAPA and AH SPF operational targets include assembly areas and command centers i.e.
airfields, JTF C-2, aircraft, SPODs, basing areas, logistics convoys, oilfields, pipelines
- AH will protect TELs with mutually supporting air defense coverage
- AH will insert SPF into rear areas approx. 24 hours prior to conventional invasion
- AH will commit TBMs and accept risk in air operations to achieve air parity
- AH will threaten use of chemical munitions against JTF forces and regional countries
- SAPA will conduct SR of terrain objectives and counter-reconnaissance missions to
target SOF teams locations and identify missions/objectives
- AH will attempt to seize Baku and oil fields as primary objective
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LIMITATIONS
Poor ability to track TELs following dispersal; subordinate units have less
capability
Undeveloped HUMINT network, country-wide (Mahmudali Chehregani)
COMEUCOM approves cross-border R&S
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IMPLIED TASKS
Detect/ track SSM FOBs
Coordinate with JTF/JIACG to establish detainee facility; BPT to temporarilydetain PUCs
Coordinate for interpreter support
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RISK TO SOF
Air infil/exfil, PR- AH IADS (overlapping coverage of Air AAs and HLZ/DZs)
Collateral damage from attacks on Qazvin chemical production facility
SAPA interdiction of SOF airfields in AZ
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18
XX
XX
84
IFC
XX
58
XX
88
S
S
S
S
SS
S
SAPA Attacks
AZ DEF
Forces
XX
- 4x DIVs: 2 x up,
2 x back
- ME: (Est.d) East
coast towards
oilfields and Baku
- SE: Screens ME
western flank
- SAPA support
with SPF
AH ATTACK MLCOA
MDCOA: Chem
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AH CONVENTIONAL FORCES CURRENT DISPOSITION
(17 MAR 2013)
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ADA Current Disposition
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AH IADS Coverage- North
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AH IADS Coverage
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Maximum Range, kms
Air Defense System Ranges
VerticalMaximumRa
nge,
kms
SA-15
MR: 12 km
MA: 6 km
SA-18
MR: 6 km
MA: 3.5 km
2S6M
MR: 10 km
MA: 3.5 km
SA-16/
SA-13 MR: 5 kmMA:3.5 km
Maximum Range = MR
Maximum Altitude = MA
CROTALE
MR: 8 km
MA: 5.5 km
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Maximum Range, kms
VerticalMaximumR
an
ge,
kms
SA-6
MR: 25 km
MA: 14 km
SA-12
MR:75 km
MA: 25 km
SA-11
MR: 35 km
MA: 15 km
SA-10
MR: 200 km
MA:30 km
Maximum Range = MR
Maximum Altitude = MA
KS-19:
MR: 12 km
MA: 9.6 km
SA-8
MR: 15 km
MA:12 km
Air Defense System Ranges
ENEMY Ai C t Di iti t i fi ld
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ENEMY Air Current Disposition at airfields
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X
AIR / TBM CAPABILITY
II II II
37/38/39
6XSS1C/
SCUD
6XSS1C/
SCUD
6XSS1C/
SCUD
SCUD (3 x Brigades)AIR
20 FIXED WING
SORTIES/DAY
18 x SCUD B
18 x SCUD C
18 x SHEHAB-3
Impact
SCUDAIR
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Air Force Attack Aircraft
System Total *Radius-km Armament
MiG-29 30 2450 6 Air-Air Missiles (AAMs)
MiG-31 24 1650 6 AAMsLightning 45 685 2 500lb bombs, 2 rockets & 2 AAMs
Zenith 15 1650 8 AAMs or 8 1,000lb precision bombs
F6 15 1100 2 500lb bombs & 2 AAMs
F-7M 45 550 2 AAMs
Su-25 20 1250 8 1,000lb bombs & 2 AAMs
Su-24 20 2000 9 2,000 lb bombs and anti-shipTu-22 12 2450 12 2,000lb bombs
A = Attack
F = Fighter
I = Interceptor
S = Strike
B = Bomber
R = Recon *Radius = one-way of round-tripwithout air refueling
13
15 x Lightning
S
15
15 x Zenith
F
19
15 x F6
F
15 x F-7M
16S
WOC: Tabriz1
F
10
12 x MiG-31
S
12
12 x MiG-31
S
14
15 x Lightning
S
15 x F-7M
17S
15 x F-7M
18S
I
1
15 x MiG-29 15 x MiG-29
I
11
WOC: Rasht2
A
21
20 x Su-25
A
22
15 x Lightning
A
31
10 x Su-24
F-B
WOC: Hamadan3
B
32
12 x Tu-22
B
5R
51
10 x Su-24
R
SCUD/TBM Current Disposition
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SCUD/TBM Current Disposition
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SSM Ranges
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 50 70 100 200 300 kms
Scud B
Scud C
Shehab 3
120 kms
300 kms
SCUD
1300 kms
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/theater/r-11_b9.jpg7/28/2019 J-2 TF Nail
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AH TBM Threat2 BDE
6 BN (FOB)12 Cranes
12 Weather Vehicles12 C 2 Vehicles27 Launchers
50 Missiles
Critical VulnerabilityCranes & C2 Vehicles
Time LineHide Launch - Hide = 1 HourFOBs in place = 24/48 Hours
Reload 1-2 Hours
FOBRL RL
RL
H
H
H
L
L
L
FOB = C2 HQRL = Reload
H = Hide
L = Launch
SCUD-C and NO-DONG
Doctrinal TBM Template
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/theater/r-11_b9.jpghttp://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/theater/r-11_b9.jpghttp://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/theater/r-11_b9.jpghttp://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/theater/r-11_b9.jpghttp://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/theater/r-11_b9.jpghttp://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/theater/r-11_b9.jpg7/28/2019 J-2 TF Nail
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Chemical production site complex in the city of QAZVIN
- Building plans
- Security systems- Enemy ground and air strength, composition, weapons, response time
- Intel on site security - human (guards, military), intrusion detection / early -
warning devices, obstacles, reinforcements
TBM Sites and chemical production(current location in the city of SALMAS)
-Location, composition, activity
- HQ, resupply, transloader
-AD coverage and force protection
-Deception
Insertions:
- Intel supportability of ground infil
- Status (feasibility / suitability) of airfields and HLZs (IADs, mines, etc.)
TARGET DEVELOPMENT
Salmasx
AH
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Chemical Plant QAZVIN
Known nerve gas production site under Iranian control
AH has capability to produce weaponized nerve gas
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Situation Assessment: Qazvin
DTG: 20MAR2013SOURCE: National Intelligence
NORMAL POPULATION: 200,000 Azeri, 120,000 Kurd, 10,000 Persian; 330,000 total
CURRENT POPULATION: About 350,000
ROAD/RAIL CONDITIONS: Major roads and rail lines are intact. Secondary roads are in fair condition but
difficult to travel in rainy season.FOOD DISTRIBUTION: No reports of shortages of Food supplies.
HOUSING STATUS: Indications of over crowding in some suburban areas
ELECTRICAL GRID. Has the largest electrical production capacity in Ahurastan. Main power feeds follow the
trace of the highway up to Tabriz. Some brownouts observed.
MAJOR BUILDINGS: Some damage from past earthquakes has not been repaired.
WATER AND SANITATION: Reports of raw sewage in low lying regions in the more crowded areas of the city.
MEDICAL SERVICES: No information available.
EMERGENCY SERVICES: No information available.LAW ENFORCEMENT: No information available.
AIRFIELD: Working condition C-17 capable
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SCUD LaunchersSCUD
launchers
parked near
Salmas
before
dispersal
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Dissident Analysis
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Dissident AnalysisKDPA (AH) SANAM Mugan Military wing of Taylsh
Leader Mustava Hijri Cherengalli Ali Humbatov
Goal Independent Mahabad
Republic (Ahurastan
provinces of West AZ &
Kurdestan)
Regime change
Wants AH as semi-
autonomous region in
Iran for econ
prosperity
Separate state for Taylsh clan (in so. AZ &
no. AH)
Support
LiaisonBorders
Iraq border
Support from PUK (brokewith KDP)
Along AZ/AH border
Russian support viaArmenia
No longer supports SAPA (unconfirmed)
Along Caspian Sea
Assets Approx 10.5K KDPI
Other affil w/ Shikak
Confederacy 100 house
=10-20 peshmerga
Several 20-25PAX
militia
Several OSC-E key
leaders
(Influence increasesw/time.. P(coup) incr)
BN (3 companies)
Squad-size militia in almost all villages
Much local support
No more SAPA support makes OSC-E
eastern AA difficult
Issue
Liability
Support PKK in Turkey
TU fears greater
Kurdestan
KDPI and Talysh
territory claims from
AH
Taylsh state would take territory from AZ &
AH
Value Occupies SCUD region
(including Salmas)
Can influence OSC-E
commanders
Opposes SAPA; makes OSC-E eastern
axis of advance more difficult
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KDP/PUK/KDPI AOs
KDPI
Ahurastan
ODA 051 & NILE
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RECOMMENDED PIRs / IRs
PIRs
1. When will AH conduct an attack into AZ?
2. Will AH utilize WMD (TBM or chem) against AZ or regional countries?3. What are the locations of the TBM FOBs?
4. Where and how will SAPA conduct operations to restrict mobility on
coalition AAs?
IRsWhere are AMCITs and allies (potential NEO operation)? Where will AH insert SPF into AZ?
Which parts of the AZ population will offer active or tacit support SAPA/AH?
AH Strategic and Operational Capabilities Overview
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AH Strategic and Operational Capabilities Overview
Capabilities Strategic - SSM Capable (operational fires), Unconventional Warfare Operational- F-W Deep Strike capable of Combined Arms (shortduration), Rotary Wing (operational lift/ ATK), and IADS capable
Strengths Strategic - Populace Support, Insurgency Forces established Operational- Conventional military is well-trained; modern equipment
Weaknesses
Strategic - C2 for long term offensive operations Operational - Logistics to refit 1st tier forces, Reserve forces 2 monthsto organize, Limited deep strike capable
Other Strategic Familiar with the terrain, population, language, culture Operational Led by previous Iranian Western Commander, trained byIran in Iranian doctrine
Center of Gravity: National leadership
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ISR Assets Available
JTF-C
UAV
National
RC-135V (RJ) U2
JSTARS
EP-3 UAV (GH + Pred)
OGAs
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JSOTF J-2 RFIs/Issues
Is it possible to deploy SFODAs through
Iran, north into AH?
Will the JTF establish a Joint Detention
Facility?
Can JTF provide UAV coverage forJSOTFs ISR mission to locate TMBs?
Can JTF allocate U-2 sorties for us to
locate TELs?
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QUESTIONS
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BACKUP SLIDES
MilitaryF h d K i
SAPA Military Component
Front = Regiment C2 influence
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Military
HeadquartersFarhad Karimov
Logistics/ Training Front Igor Smernoff
SAPA Cadre Training Center
SAPA Safe House
SAPA Cadre
SAPA Insurgent Camp
in Azerbailan 1 Confirmed
Template 35 additional
Camps
Force Protection
Assessment
Training
Logistics/ Transportation
SAPA Camps EST. consist of
25-70 members Training 25 to
150 Combatants
SAPA Cadre Camps are unconfirmed
& remain un-located, indicators from
SIGINT and HUMINT assess that the
SAPA has SAP for training its most
dedicated informants, cadre and
leadership inside Azerbailan-Currently intelligence suggests there
is at least 2 camps in operation.
Staff
Adigozal Jamilov Insurgent Operations Front
Recently promoted fromInsurgent Regional Commander
Tiem Maliko Mikal Paridue
Staka Ishma
Chechgan Polin
Region 1
Bardar Column
Region 2
Bilasuvar Column
Region 3
Sadval Column
Baku Battalion
Mobile Urban Unit
Agar Cragshilov
NK Column
Company
50+ PAX
Intel cell
Logistics cell
Information Cell
1 x Leader3-4 x Logistics Spec
1 x Leader3-4 x Intel Spec
1 x Leader2-3 x Info Spec1-2 x Civic Action Spec
1 x Leader3-4 x Insurgents
1 x Leader6-10 x Insurgents
Insurgent
SquadDirect Action
Cell
1 x Commander
1 x Executive Officer
1 x Advisor/
Counselorx Insurgent
Insurgent
Platoon
Comm cell
1 x Deputy Commander2 x Advisor/Counselor2 x Admin Spec
Agar Bilisovec
Front = Regiment C2 influence
Column/ Region= Battalion C2 influence
District= Company
Platoon= Platoon
ANA is a less capable force, limited
surveillance and only small unit direct
action operations. The focus of the ANA
is to prepare for Phase 3 operations of
Maoist insurgency operations.
II
Ali Humbatov
Region 5
Mugan Column
II
II
II
II
II
Air Force Attack Aircraft
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Air Force Attack Aircraft
System Total *Radius-km Armament
MiG-29 30 2450 6 Air-Air Missiles (AAMs)
MiG-31 24 1650 6 AAMs
Lightning 45 685 2 500lb bombs, 2 rockets & 2 AAMs
Zenith 15 1650 8 AAMs or 8 1,000lb precision bombs
F6 15 1100 2 500lb bombs & 2 AAMs
F-7M 45 550 2 AAMs
Su-25 20 1250 8 1,000lb bombs & 2 AAMs
Su-24 20 2000 9 2,000 lb bombs and anti-shipTu-22 12 2450 12 2,000lb bombs
A = Attack
F = Fighter
I = Interceptor
S = Strike
B = BomberR = Recon *Radius = one-way of round-trip
without air refueling
13
15 x Lightning
S
15
15 x Zenith
F19
15 x F6
F
15 x F-7M
16S
WOC: Tabriz1
F
10
12 x MiG-31
S
12
12 x MiG-31
S
14
15 x Lightning
S
15 x F-7M
17S
15 x F-7M
18S
I
1
15 x MiG-29 15 x MiG-29
I
11
WOC: Rasht2
A
21
20 x Su-25
A
22
15 x Lightning
A
31
10 x Su-24
F-B
WOC: Hamadan3
B
32
12 x Tu-22
B
5R
51
10 x Su-24
R
IFC d St t i
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IFCs and Strategic
IFC-E
X
3,4*100 Km
108 x SA-12
X
5,6*90 Km
36 x SA-10
X
11,12*36 Km
84 x SA-11
X21,22
23,
*12 Km
32 x SA-15
Strategic
X
3
36 x 9A52
*90 KmX
4
36 x WM-80
*80 Km
X
1
SS-21
*120 KmX
2
SCUD-B
*300 Km
X
8
II
1
*43 Km
18 x FADJR-3
II
2
*80 Km
18 x WM-80
X
40 x HIND-D16
5
X
2
II
24 x 2S3
3
II
24 x TYPE 83
1
II
24 x 2S5
24
X
243
II
18 x TYPE 83
TIER -2
242
II
18 x TYPE 83
241
II
18 x G5
IFC-W
2
X
21
II
16 x 2S5
6 x FADJR-3
X31,32
33,
*12 Km
72 x ZSU-23-4
ADA
22
II
16 x 2S5
6 x FADJR-3
23
II
16 x 2S5
6 x FADJR-3
II
81
*43 Km
18 x FADJR-3X
40 x HIND-D
17
25
X
253
II
18 x TYPE 83
TIER -2
252
II
18 x TYPE 83
251
II
18 x G5
II
482
*43 Km
12 x FADJR-3
X
48 TIER -2
483
*35 Km
12 x 9P140
II
II
481
*43 Km
12 x FADJR-3
TIER -2
SPF BDE
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Parachute
TEAM LEADER
ASSISTANT TEAM LEADER
2 X RADIO OPERATORS
2 X WEAPONS SPECIALISTS
2 DEMOLITION SPECIALISTS
4 X RECONNAISSANCE SPECIALSTS
2 PZF 3-T600
2 SA-18
SPF BDE
X 10
II II II
BDE
HQSPF SPT
SPF
TEAM
X
SPF
I
SPF
Parachute
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X
II
I
COMMANDO BDE
HQ
2 SA-18
HQ CMDO
CMDO
2 SA-18
WPNS
18 X PZF3-T600
3 X SA-18
3 X 82mm MORTAR
6 X RPG-29
6 X W-87
6 X AT-7
9 X SA-18
54 X PZF 3-T600
9 X SA-18
9 X 82mm MORTAR
18 X RPG-29
6 X W-876 X Gill
9 X SA-18
II
I
CMDO
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HQ
24 PERSONNEL
6 X Gill
18 X PERSONNEL
9 X SA-18
COMMANDO WPNS CO
AGL
30 X PERSONNEL
6 X W-87
ATSAM
6 X W-87
6 X Gill
9 X SA-18
I
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HQ
6 PERSONNEL
1 SA-18 45 X PERSONNEL
6 X PZF3T600
1 X SA-182 X RPG-29
COMMANDO COMPANY
WPNS
I
45 X PERSONNEL
3 X 82mm MORTAR
1 X SA-18
18 X PZF3T600
3 X SA-18
3 X 82mm MORTAR
6 X RPG-29
CO O OO
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2 X PZF3T600
10 X DISMOUNTED TROOPS
HQ
9 PERSONNEL
2 X RPG-29
1 X SA-18
45 X PERSONNEL
6 X PZF3T6001 X SA-18
2 X RPG-29
COMMANDO PLATOON
STRENGTHS / CAPABILITIES
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STRENGTHS / CAPABILITIES
OBJECTIVES
- Strategic: Seize AZ oil fields and control BAKU before U.S. TFPDD flow reverses departure
and returns to AZ
- Operational: Cross Kura and Araks River and bypass AZ units- Tactical: Supporting fires from OSC IFC; supporting air; direction of SAPA rear area activities;
deny use of POE to any returning US forces
COG
- Strategic: SCUDS / TBMs
- Operational: OSC IFC; Air
- Tactical: Conventional - Maneuverforces; UW - SPF and Commando units- AH Homeland COG: IADS
CULMINATING POINT:OSC-E and OSC-W denied river crossing of Araks and Kura; deniedaccess to oil fields and to Baku
STRENGTHS
SCUDS and TBM: Coverage over entire country of AZ except for SPODsCHEM: Sarin Gas on SCUD-Bs and SHAHAB-3s
Arty: Chem warhead delivery (130mm 27.5km, SCUDs)
SOF: Up to 120x SPF Teams (6-12x PAX) in Rear Area w/small arms, demo (recon; DA)
ADA: IADs
SAPA: Recon, Intel, Targeting
VULNERABILITIES AND WEAKNESSES
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WHAT AH MUST DO TO ACHIEVE SUCCESS:
-Attrit and bypass AZ military forces south of Araks and Kura Rivers
- Seize and Defend key terrain: Oil Fields- Delegitimize and/or defeat U.S. forces
LIMITATIONS:
- SCUDs: Vulnerable to IMINT detection when moving
Resource Requirements: Must resupply after ~60x days (Est) days
VULNERABILITIES AND WEAKNESSES
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10
AHURASTAN
IRAN
811
X
- AH chem weaponsmove to Salmas
- AH TBMs dispersing
west of Tabriz near
Salmas
- Indicators: AH is
moving chem warheadsto LU with Shahab-3
missiles and SCUDs
150015ZMAR13
XX
76
XX77
XX
64
XX
98
XX
78
821
X
X
831
SPECIFIED and IMPLIED TASKS
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SPECIFIED and IMPLIED TASKS
Coordinate with JTF-A for Collection support: All disciplines - National;
Targeting
Integration of EAC and Theater assets into collection plan for I&W and
targeting:
SIGINT (NSA); IMINT (NSA, NGIC); HUMINT (IA)
Targeting:
Coordinate with JTF-A and subordinate elements Deconflict with: IA; JTF-A (for adjacent JSOTF teams)
Need target fidelity with NRT intel inject for deep targets in AH
(SCUDs, chem threats)
Coordinate for language support: Interpreters - Farsi, Arabic
EPW: Coordinate for Interrogation Support; Coordinate for EPW evac
JSOAC Coordination:
Targeting; ATO
ISOPREPs
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