© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 1
CONSUMER AND TRAVEL TRENDS IN TIMES OF THE FINANCIAL CRISISMatthias HartmannCEO of GfK, on March 7, 2012 ITB Berlin
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 2
Headlines convey crisis mood …
Forecast for 2012
World bank warns of
recession in Europe
EUROPEAN REPRESENTATIVE WARNS"US powers have declared a currency war"STRONG REACTION FOLLOWING THE DOWNGRADE OF NINE EURO COUNTRIES
Debt crisis dampens mood
in numerous sectors
A weakening global economy and
insecurity in light of the debt crisis are
currently dampening the mood in
countless Germany companies.
Economy
Companies
prepared for
euro crash
EUR 145 BILLION INSTEAD OF EUR 130 BILLION!
Greek debt rising higher and higher!
NEXT RATING SHOCK
Fitch downgrades five
eurozone countries
Standard & Poor’s launches sweeping blow against Europe
German economy shrinks at year-end
Further increaseUnemploymentrattling Spain
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 3
Top destinations
Source: GfK Travel Insights, as at end January 2012
… but to a certain extent vacation booking data reveals a different picture
DE NL UK-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%11%
-2% -5%
Growth rates in 2011/12 tourism year vs. prior year
Source market
Sa
les
gro
wth
in %
vs
. Pre
v. y
ea
r
Sales +/- in %
>= +10%
+3 < 10%
-3 < +3%
- 10 < -3%
< -10%
DE NL UK
1. Spain
2. Turkey
3. Egypt
1. Spain
2. Turkey
3. Egypt
1. Spain
2. USA
3. Turkey
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 4
Source: EU Commission consumer survey, GfK Marktforschung, average January to December 2011
Germans are Europe’s consumption optimists
Willingness to buy indicator value – average January to December 2011
+34-46
-11
-9
-19
-2
-10
-31-14
-25
-10
-3
-14
+10
+24
-48
-48
-37
-5
-7
+1
-34
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 5
• Reduced willingness to buyis reflected in purchases of slow moving consumer goods
• There are exceptions …
Source: GfK Retail and Technology, Europe 19 countries, 2011 vs. 2010, sales EUR
Industries affected to varying degrees
Espresso fully automatic
Smartphones Tablet PC‘s
+16%
+55%
+>300%
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 6
In which areas are you currently trying to make savings? Selected in %
Source: survey "Everyday saving in Europe" (European Consumer Study), GfK Verein, winter 2009/10
Vacations are one of the last things to be given up Europe-wide
Food and drink
Clothing and shoes
Eating out
Major purchases
Visiting pubs, bars and cafés
…
Vacation
38
38
37
34
34
29
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 7
Spending on pre-booked vacations with at least one overnight stay 2007 – 2011
Index 100 = 2007
Basis: spending on pre-booked vacationsSource: GfK TravelScope, 20,000 representatively selected households, surveyed quarterly
Restrained impact of 2009 recession on the travel market
2007 2008 2009 2010 201196
98
100
102
104
106
108
100
102
100
105
106
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 8
Basis: spending on pre-booked vacationsSource: GfK TravelScope, 20,000 representatively selected households, surveyed quarterly
Target groups behave differently in the crisis
Sales growth in %, source market: Germany
Tourism year 2009/10 vs. prior year
Low-income earner
Young families
Students/young professionals
Pensioners
Single professionals
-15
-13
-9
4
17
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 9
Assessment of shifts in significance
Multiple choice answers (figures in %)
Source: representative omnibus survey conducted in Germany on behalf of the GfK Verein (January 2010, 1,080 respondents)
The need for trust and security is increasing
Security
Home
Performance
Trust
Responsibility
Optimism
Solidarity
Competition
Innovation
Going without
Power
Luxury
Adventure
70
59
58
55
52
51
48
38
36
35
25
18
16
27
39
39
41
44
44
46
52
58
50
50
41
46
3
2
4
4
4
5
7
10
6
14
24
42
37
More important Unchanged Less important
Question: "The significance of values can shift over time. I will list a series of values and would you please tell me whether you think their significance has been increasing or decreasing recently, so if they are becoming more or less important."
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 10
Basis: spending on pre-booked vacationsSource: GfK TravelScope, 20,000 representatively selected households, surveyed quarterly
… this is also reflected in vacation bookings
Sales growth in %, source market: Germany
Tourism year 2009/10 vs. prior year
Total
Domestic trips
International trips
Board basis: all inclusive or full board
Other board option
Short trips (up to 5 days)
Longer trips (5 – 10 days)
Long trips (11 days +)
-2
6
-4
6
-1
-3
4
-2
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 11
Source: GfK Travel Insights, turnover shares of destinations by booking months
The Tourism Industry is well-proven and experiencedin crisis scenarios
Bird Flu Turkey
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun0
5
10
15
20
Booking months
Tu
rno
ver
shar
e in
%
Swine Flu Mexico
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
TY 07/08 TY 08/09 Booking months
Tu
rno
ver
shar
e in
%
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 12
Booking development Egypt
Source: GfK Travel Insights, development turnover Egypt since Nov2009 until Jan 2012
Effects and dimensions of the Arab Spring in Egypt
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
-50
0
50
100
150
TY 11/12 TY 10/11Booking months
Tu
rno
ve
r in
Mio
. E
UR
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 13
Winter, source market: Germany, growth vs. prior year in %
Source: GfK Travel Insights, sales change on prior year in the respective booking week
Which countries are benefitting?
Total Canaries Turkey UAE
CW1 2011
CW5 2011
+7
+15
+20
+81
+39
+57
-1
+80
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 14
Source: GfK Travel Insights, before=bookings made start of winter up to Jan 2011, after = bookings made from Feb until end of winter season
TUI shifts flight capacity from Egypt to Canary Islands
"We decided to shift our capacities early to enable us to still guaranteehigh availability as the demand for vacations was high," says Dr. Volker Böttcher, CEO TUI Deutschland.
Sales growth vs. prior year in %, source market: Germany
Destination: Canary Islands
Before After0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
10%
35%
3%
60%
Growth rate on overall market TUI growth rate
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 15
Constantly rising demand for information …
Strategies of positioning in competitive environment
Strategies of positioning in competitive environment
Strategies of positioning in competitive environment
Market volume, market structures, market potentials
Market volume, market structures, market potentials
Market volume, marketstructures, market potentials
Movement of clients
Movement of clients
Movement of clients
Media and use of media
Media and use of media
Media and use of media
Monitoring and controlling of Marketing activities
Monitoring and controllingof Marketing activities
Monitoring and controllingof Marketing activities
Portfolio-Analysis of leisure service providers from consumer perspective
Portfolio-Analysis of leisure service providers from consumer perspective
Portfolio-Analysis of leisure service providersfrom consumer perspective
Decision support for image positioning, product placement and media budgeting
Decision support for image positioning, product placement and media budgeting
Decision support for image positioning, product placement and media budgeting
Travel motivation and kind of journey
Travel motivation and kind of journey
Travel motivation and kind of journey
© GfK 2012 | Consumer and Travel Trends in Times of the Financial Crisis | 07. March 2012 16
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
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