IOOS & Hurricanes & Fish – Oh My! Scott Glenn – Rutgers University
Demand for Fish
Hurricane Forecasting
Regions The Rise of the Regional Scale!
1000 km Cape to Cape
U.S. IOOS Mid-Atlantic Region - MARACOOS Mid-Atlantic Regional Association Coastal Ocean Observing System
Cape Cod
Cape Hatteras
People
Ports
Critical Habitat
Offshore Energy
MARACOOS Satellite Data Network
Coldest Dark Pixel SST
Plankton Blooms
River Plumes
MARACOOS HF Radar Network
Mid-Atlantic HF Radar Network 16 Long-Range CODARs 7 Medium-Range CODARs 17 Short-Range CODARs 41 Total Triple Nested, Multistatic, Dual-Use
MARACOOS Glider Network
Satellite Ocean Color
Satellite SST
Subsurface Glider Data
MARACOOS MURI
Intl. Missions EPA & NJDEP
Cblast Endurance
OSSE SW06
Many Missions, Many Agencies
CODAR Network Glider Fleet Satellite Data Acquisi9on Sta9ons 3-‐D Forecasts
MARACOOS Operations Center Rutgers University - Coastal Ocean Observation Lab
Hurricane Irene approaches MARACOOS Network
Before
After
• Track accurately forecast days in advance.
• Intensity overpredicted.
August 27, 2011
SST Difference
Global SST
Regional SST
Post-Hurricane Irene Sea Surface Temperatures
But when did the Cooling occur?
Hurricane Irene Glider Tracks & Temperature
Mixing & Cooling Occurs Rapidly as the
Eye Approaches
Hurricane Irene SST Sensitivity Hindcast
Maximum Wind Speed Skill Score
Official Forecast
Warm SST Hindcast
Warm SST + OML Model
Hindcast
Cold SST Hindcast
RMS Error 9.43 7.13 7.09 3.61
Global Warm SST Regional Cold SST
But What About the Fish? Large
Summer-Winter SST
Differences
Produce Migratory Fish Species
‘Butterfish’ Fall modeled as metabolic thermal response
NOAA Fisheries + MARACOOS = Fish Habitat Models
1998
2006
Favorable
Unfavorable
Gliders with integrated Fish-Tag Receivers
Satellite Salinity Glider Salinity
Tagged-Fish found in the
freshwater river plume
Thermal Structure of the Regional Scale Ocean: 1) Feedback on Weather Forecasts 2) Structure Large Marine Ecosystems
64 Large Marine Ecosystems ���
produce 80% of the
World’s Annual Fisheries Yields
Current Global Population: 7 Billion
But: ��� 800 Million without Clean Water��� 1.0 Billion without Adequate Food���
1.4 Billion without Electricity
2050 Global Population: 9 Billion
Growth is Concentrated in
Developing Countries
Migration is towards Coastal Megacites
Climate Change Only
Population Growth +
Climate Change
Future Water Scarcity
What do we need most?
Educated Young People
• How do we take these students to sea? • How do we reduce the barriers to participation? • How do we build a diverse global community?
Interactive Science & Education through Cyber-Telepresence
The Ocean is our Classroom - Telepresence
The Ocean is our Classroom - Omnipresence Global
Challenger Glider Mission
16 Legs with 16 Global-
Class Gliders
Creating the Next Generation of Ocean Explorers
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