Introduction
Very Long Energy and EnvironmentalModel: Outline of the
Methodology
T.Hamacher, M. Biberacher and the VLEEM consortium
Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik
Introduction
1. Objective of VLEEM
2. Back-casting
3. The GIS interface
4. Global link as example
5. Conclusion and outlook
Objective of VLEEM
The VLEEM project - sponsored by the DG-Research - should develop R&D guidelines for the European Energy Research.
Back-casting
The goal of VLEEM is to develop a system view of possible future technologies and the possiblecontributions of these technologies to a sustainableenergy future. Emphasise is more put on the technologythan on the economy.
Renewable
Fossil Nuclear
The tool box
GIS-Interface
Energy-ressourcedatabase
BALANCE
Energy-technologydatabase
User-Interface
BASES TASES
Special models
The tool box
BASES: module to estimate the future energy demand. Special emphasise is put on time budgets to describe the energy demand.
BALANCE: module to describe the trajectory from today to the future end-point of the investigation. Themodule is based on a simple LP-approach.
TASES: module to describe the future sustainable end-point and to “prove” the feasibility of certain technological solutions.
Global link as example
One of the crucial questions for a prosperousfuture of renewable energies is the way theintermittent nature of wind and solar will be treated.
While in a lot of studies hydrogen is proposed as possible way out, in VLEEM a second option is also investigated, a so called global link.
Global link: motivation
Possible sites for off-shore wind parks in theNorth and Baltic sea.
Global link: motivation
The installation of off-shore wind parks will not only impact the German network.
Global link: motivation
Contribution of wind to the total demand.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
0 14 28 42 56 70 84 98 112
126
140
154
168
Ele
ctric
ity p
rodc
utio
n [M
W]
.
Demand
Off-shore
On-shore
green: max. use of capacity < 80% (no problem)blue: max. use of capacity 80% - 100%
(could become critical)red: max. use of capacity 100%
(critical)magenta: max. use of capacity >> 100%
(new capacity needs to be installed)
Global link: motivation
Necessary enforcement of the GermanGrid.
Global link as example
7979
5358
7009
6487
5442
4339
7424
4969
1211
10837
• World is divided in several regions..
• .. represented by an hourly scattered load curve for on year regarding electricity demand (in TWh)
• electricity exchange between neighbour regions is possible
electricity demand
distribution
wind PV
storage
Assumption: Electricity demand in 2100 will be covered by solar- and wind power.
Global link as example
Electricity consumption in 2100
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Europe
Former USSR
North America
Latin America
Sub Saharian AfricaNorth Africa and Middle East
South Asia
Centrally planned Asia and China
OECD Pacific Asia
Other Pacific Asia
TWhSource: IIASA/WEC Global Energy Perspectives, 1998
NEEDS SUPPLY
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
hour of year
force values to norm load curve
Source: UCTE Statistical Yearbook 2000
shift and merge curves to regional appearing time zones
%%%%%%%%%% Solar radiation
increasing
%%%%%%%%%%
increasing
Wind speed
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
Stunde im Jahr
Lei
stu
ng
Global link as example
Global link (data series preparation)
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one year
win
d s
pe
ed
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####
one year
so
lar
ins
ola
tio
n
• for each raster slice one year hourly resoluted curves for wind speed ...• world is covered by a 5° x 5° grid pattern
• ... and solar insolation are available
... no storage available
storage installations
... storage available and expensive ... storage available and becomes cheaper ... storage available and very cheap
Backgrounding limitations:• only 0.5 % of earth surface per 5° x 5° can be utilised for solar radiation collection• only 1.25 GW wind power can be installed per 10‘000 km2 earth surface
installed solar power plant installed wind power plant electricity exchange
Global link as example
Comparison of cumulated numbers for the scenarios with different storage cost assumptions:
tremendous grid capacities necessary – but it can be reduced by the combination with storage facilities;
available storage capacities are suitable to increase grid exertion;
storage installations increase with deacreasing cost assumptions;
solar power profits from the combination with storage facilities more as from the connection to a global grid;
fluctuations in wind power are more or less completely compensated by a global grid – no storage is necessary ;
without storage
140 €/kWh storage cost
70 €/kWh storage cost
14 €/kWh storage cost
14 €/kWh storage cost and grid cost enlarged by a factor 1E6
Global link as example
Global link as example
* electricity networks seem to be one of the bottlenecks in the employment of renewables (beside the cost)
* R&D in new transmission technologies like super-conducting cables and system behaviour seem necessary
* R&D in the system behaviour of large intra-continental electricity networks seems necessary
Conclusion and outlook
* A toolbox was developed that is capable to fulfil the VLEEM objectives
* first more comprehensive examples were developed
* three major scenarios are under way and willbe ready at the end of the year
without storage facilities
cost for storage: 140 €/kWh
cost for storage: 70 €/kWh
cost for storage: 14 €/kWh
cost for storage: 14 €/kWh (net cost are factorised with 1E6)
0
2000
4000
6000
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10000
installed wind power
inst
alle
d w
ind
po
we
r in
GW
scenarios with different storage cost assumptions
0
60000
120000
installed solar collector surface
inst
alle
d s
ola
r co
llect
or
surf
ace
in
km
2
0
300
600
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1500
installed storage capacity
inst
alle
d s
tora
ge
ca
pa
city
in
TW
h
0.0
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0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0 grid exertion
gri
d e
xert
ion
in %
0
50000
100000
150000 grid capacity
inst
alle
d g
rid
ca
pa
city
in
km
*TW
without storage facilities
cost for storage: 140 €/kWh
cost for storage: 70 €/kWh
cost for storage: 14 €/kWh
cost for storage: 14 €/kWh (net cost are factorised with 1E6)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
installed wind power
inst
alle
d w
ind
po
we
r in
GW
scenarios with different storage cost assumptions
0
60000
120000
installed solar collector surface
inst
alle
d s
ola
r co
llect
or
surf
ace
in
km
2
0
300
600
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1500
installed storage capacity
inst
alle
d s
tora
ge
ca
pa
city
in
TW
h
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0 grid exertion
gri
d e
xert
ion
in %
0
50000
100000
150000 grid capacity
inst
alle
d g
rid
ca
pa
city
in
km
*TW
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
hour of year
20%
What happens if it is assumed that part of the base load will be covered by conventional plant?
will be covered by near located (in a global context) base load plant and is therefore decoupled from the global optimisation
pow
er
load curve of electricity demand
Although the leaving part in the demand as well as the leaving supply technologies (wind and solar) show high fluctuations, the global assumed installations for grid, storage and solar power can be reduced evidently.
Global link as example
G r i d e f f i c i e n c y
00 . 10 . 20 . 30 . 40 . 50 . 60 . 70 . 80 . 91
Efficincy
w h i t o u t s t o r a g e a b i l i t yw i t h s t o r a g e a b i l i t y
G r i d c a p a c i t y
01 E + 1 32 E + 1 33 E + 1 34 E + 1 35 E + 1 36 E + 1 37 E + 1 3
Capacityin(km*kW) w h i t o u t s t o r a g e a b i l i t yw i t h s t o r a g e a b i l i t y
S o l a r p o w e r i n s t a l l a t i o n
0 . 0 E + 0 01 . 0 E + 1 02 . 0 E + 1 03 . 0 E + 1 04 . 0 E + 1 05 . 0 E + 1 06 . 0 E + 1 07 . 0 E + 1 0
Collectorsurfacein(m^2) w h i t o u t s t o r a g e a b i l i t yw i t h s t o r a g e a b i l i t y
W i n d p o w e r i n s t a l l a t i o n
0 . 0 E + 0 02 . 0 E + 0 64 . 0 E + 0 66 . 0 E + 0 68 . 0 E + 0 61 . 0 E + 0 71 . 2 E + 0 71 . 4 E + 0 71 . 6 E + 0 7
Capacityin(MW) w h i t o u t s t o r a g e a b i l i t yw i t h s t o r a g e a b i l i t y
Optimum
1. Necessary potentials are available;
2. Needed storage capacities are strongly reduced by a global grid;
3. Day/night fluctuations in solar power can completely compensated only by storage facilities and not by the connection to a global grid;
4. In opposite to solar power, the fluctuations in wind power are mostly compensated via the global connection.
Optimum in the scenario pattern would be a combination of net facilities and storage facilities because in that case the necessary installations would be at the lowest
without storage facilities
cost for storage: 140 €/kWh
cost for storage: 70 €/kWh
cost for storage: 14 €/kWh
cost for storage: 14 €/kWh (net cost are factorised with 1E6)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
installed wind power
inst
alle
d w
ind
po
we
r in
GW
scenarios with different storage cost assumptions
0
60000
120000
installed solar collector surface
inst
alle
d s
ola
r co
llect
or
surf
ace
in
km
2
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
installed storage capacity
inst
alle
d s
tora
ge
ca
pa
city
in
TW
h
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0 grid exertion
gri
d e
xert
ion
in %
0
50000
100000
150000 grid capacity
inst
alle
d g
rid
ca
pa
city
in
km
*TW
Global link as example
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