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WILL CRITCHLOW

Internet Trends for Marketers

WILL CRITCHLOW - @willcritchlow

Let’s look backwards


Last year may have been the year of the dot coms, but 2000 is set to be the year of the mobile.

TheLawyer.com, 2000

http://www.thelawyer.com/the-phoney-war/103680.article


200310 years ago

Check out this 2002 piece by Tim O’Reilly predicting the decade we just had:

http://www.oreillynet.com/network/2002/04/09/future.html


We did email on our phones2003: the iconic blackberry was released


We didn’t Instagram our Angry Birds’ breakfast

Thanks @philnottingham

http://instagram.com/p/UTzfuMk8M3/


We had “broadband”

Source: Ofcom and thinkbroadband.com

http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/news/broadband/3334609/uks-average-broadband-speed-is-76mbps/

http://www.uswitch.com/broadband/news/2007/02/broadband_speeds_quadrupled_since_2003_but_it_s_still_not_good_enough/


The first version of Skype was released


but YouTube was still two years away


202310 years from now


We are still doing email on our phone


We still use keyboards

Source: DYAC

The DYAC of the future is “damn you Siri”

http://www.damnyouautocorrect.com/15412/surviving-christmas/




We still read textEasier to scan, more socially acceptable at work, doesn’t require quiet / headphones

Still looks less like work


(We are bad enough at reading & walking)

Source: gifsoup

http://www.gifsoup.com/view/3859846/texting-walking-fail.html


We pay for more thingsOften voluntarily (see: Louis CK, NYT’s porous paywall)

https://buy.louisck.net/news

http://www.wired.com/business/2011/08/new-york-times-paywall

http://www.wired.com/business/2011/08/new-york-times-paywall


erm

The dumb pipes continue acting dumbMeet Cesar Alierta, CEO Telefonica

Google should pay us for using our network

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBqdDzZYY64




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-25/telefonica-scraps-2012-dividend-and-buybacks-cuts-executive-pay.html



The last mile is no longer the issueThe “middle mile” is – getting fibre to the exchange

Source: TechCrunch

http://techcrunch.com/2012/07/26/google-details-its-1-gigabit-fiber-network-in-kansas-city-will-come-with-tv-service-1tb-of-cloud-storage-nexus-7/


No-one watches scheduled TVApart from news, sports, and actual live events


Mobile is a big deal but not for the reason you think

Source: Business Insider

http://www.businessinsider.com/mary-meeker-2012-internet-trends-year-end-update-2012-12?0=sai


The iPod revolutionised an industry




The iPhone makes it look slow




Then came the iPad




Holy **** Android




…and it keeps going




We need to look at the PC market to

understand what’s really happening


Before I was born, systems I’ve never used ruled the earth




When I was young, we saw the rise and fall of Amiga, Atari, Commodore




Through school, university and early work, it was a two-horse race (being kind to Apple)




Now: Same old, same old




Unless you add in iPad and Android




If you care about the details check out this chart and this animation (note the log scale)

http://www.asymco.com/2012/01/17/the-rise-and-fall-of-personal-computing/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8h-C6u4yLj4


I think the real story is “everywhere”, not “mobile”

Source: cnet

http://crave.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/every-4g-phone-speed-tested-on-video-50009363/


Mobile devices get more like PCs

Faster

Better at browsing

Easier to purchase on

PCs get more like mobile devices

Touch

App stores

Instant on


The future is here…


It’s just not evenly distributed [hat-tip William

Gibson]

Yes, I think I might be advocating studying hipsters

Source: Paste Magazine

http://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2009/12/the-evolution-of-the-hipster-2000-2009.html


We use devices interchangeably29% of US adults own a tablet or ereader up from 2% in 2009

Source: Business Insider, image from thed34n


http://www.flickr.com/photos/thed34n/5630008826/


We have seamless, sync’ed access everywhereAlready: Dropbox, Evernote, Google Apps / Android, iCloud, Instapaper, Kindle whispersync


We buy everywhere

Source: IBM

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/early-promotions-drive-record-online-sales-for-thanksgiving-fuels-black-friday-retail-surge-reports-ibm-180691231.html


We broadcast stuff about ourselvesBut in a more useful way (maybe)


We subscribe and follow(Often people, not brands – even when curated by a brand)


We need more computer curationTo make sense of the streams (See: priority inbox, FB edgerank)

…or here

Not everything gets here…

Even when we’ve asked for it


Show me the strategy


Google


Read @bfeld on Google’s long game

https://twitter.com/bfeld

http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2013/01/the-google-long-game-is-brilliant.html


“Connected and fast”

Source: chromium.org and theverge

http://www.chromium.org/spdy/spdy-whitepaper

http://www.theverge.com/2012/7/26/3187990/google-fiber-kansas-city


Amazon


Your margin is my opportunity

Jeff Bezos

http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2012/11/16/jeff-bezos-amazon/


…periodically Amazon wants to "check in" with its ability to make money. Thus, in 2007, Amazon more than doubled its profit, to $476 million, on a 38% increase in sales to almost $15 billion.

Fortune

http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2012/11/16/jeff-bezos-amazon/


Facebook


DAU/MAU > 50% - stickiness

See: quora, quora and andrewchen

http://www.quora.com/Facebook-1/Has-Facebooks-DAU-MAU-always-been-50

http://www.quora.com/Facebook-1/Was-Facebooks-DAU-MAU-50-prior-to-2009-and-in-particular-prior-to-launching-the-newsfeed

http://andrewchen.co/2012/05/16/quora-has-facebooks-daumau-always-been-50/


Some strategies I

predict will do well in search


Earn (and keep) attention not just shares

Photo by: latzko

http://www.flickr.com/photos/latzko/6928444437/


(Admit it, who shares stuff before reading it?)

Check out: buffer

http://bufferapp.com/


The “LinkedIn” (see also Forbes) “Borrowing” personal authority – these implementations are broken for different reasons atm

See: LinkedIn and Forbes

http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20121210165131-6332-eliminate-ranges-from-your-negotiating-vocabulary?goback=.nppvan_/bfeld&trk=prof-post

http://blogs.forbes.com/willcritchlow/


Brands as “real” publishers(See: Red Bull)

Read: Mashable

Pigeons doing

backflips

http://mashable.com/2012/12/19/red-bull-content-marketing/


Real world APIs(banks, I’m looking at you)

See: Mashable

https://simple.com/api/

https://simple.com/api/


Bricks and mortar aggressively acquiring startupsThere is real innovation in fashion and e-comm for example (see: brandid)

http://www.getbrandid.com/

http://www.getbrandid.com/


Putting unexpected people in chargeYou should read all these articles about Harper Reed, CTO of Obama for America: The Atlantic, BusinessWeek, Mother Jones, gigaom, Time

Photo: juggernautco

https://harperreed.org/

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/11/when-the-nerds-go-marching-in/265325/?single_page=true

http://mobile.businessweek.com/articles/2012-06-14/obamas-ceo-jim-messina-has-a-president-to-sell

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/10/harper-reed-obama-campaign-microtargeting

http://gigaom.com/2012/11/12/how-obamas-tech-team-helped-deliver-the-2012-election/

http://poy.time.com/2012/12/19/person-of-the-year-barack-obama/print/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/juggernautco/8172400508/


Obsessively implementing new stuff firstThere are first-mover advantages to technology shifts such as rel=author

Illustration by: marketingfacts, from crossing the chasm

http://www.flickr.com/photos/marketingfacts/4615037800/

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Crossing-Chasm-Marketing-Technology-Mainstream/dp/1841120634


Cross-functional teams outside normal hierarchyRead about the NYT interactive team

Read: The Avalanche at Tunnel Creek

http://source.mozillaopennews.org/en-US/articles/how-we-made-snow-fall/

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/2012/snow-fall/

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/2012/snow-fall/


Beware! You might be competing with loss-making teamsThe NYT modelled an avalanche!

Read: Modeling an avalanche

http://chartsnthings.tumblr.com/post/39228441872/modeling-an-avalanche




Summary


I think the real story is “everywhere”, not “mobile”

Source: cnet

http://crave.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/every-4g-phone-speed-tested-on-video-50009363/


Mobile devices get more like PCs

Faster

Better at browsing

Easier to purchase on

PCs get more like mobile devices

Touch

App stores

Instant on


http://www.distilled.net/events/linklove-london

/

…and Searchlove Boston in May:http://www.distilled.net/events/searchlove-boston

/

http://www.distilled.net/events/linklove-london/



http://www.distilled.net/events/searchlove-boston/

