Chu Thai HoanhInternational Water Management Institute (IWMI)
International assessment of adaptationInternational assessment of adaptationWater, Food and Environment under Climate ChangeWater, Food and Environment under Climate Change
Nov-03
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)
16 Centers (Institutes)(Institutes)
PenangPenang,,MalaysiaMalaysia
Nov-03
ADAPTADAPTWater, Climate, Food and Environment under Water, Climate, Food and Environment under
Climate ChangeClimate Changein Seven River Basinsin Seven River Basins
Nov-03
Adaptation in seven river basinsAdaptation in seven river basins
1. Goal2. Basins & major issues3. Collaborators4. Methodologies5. Climate changes6. Adaptation strategies7. Lessons learnt
GoalDownscaling CC from global to regional level:
Develop & evaluate adaptation strategies for river basins under climate change & climate
variability
Nov-03
Seven basins & major issues
Nov-03
Sacramento, US70,000 km2, dry
Volta, WA400,000 km2, dry
Rhine, EU185,000 km2, wet
Walawe, SL2,400 km2, wet
Syr Darya, CA400,000 km2, dry
Mekong, SEA800,000 km2, wetZayandeh Ruh, Iran
42,000 km2, dry
ADAPT Basins dry / wet areas & developed / developing regions
Nov-03
Sacramento
Sacramento
Agriculture, Agriculture, wetland & fisherieswetland & fisheries
Nov-03
Rhine
Rhine Flood control Flood control
& urban + industry demand& urban + industry demand
Nov-03
Volta
Volta
HydropowerHydropower
Nov-03
Syr Darya
Syr Darya
Lowering of Lowering of Aral sea levelAral sea level
Nov-03
Zayandeh Ruh
Zayandeh Ruh
Agriculture Agriculture vsvsindustry & urban demandindustry & urban demand
Nov-03
Walawe
Walawe
AgricultureAgriculture
Nov-03
Mekong
Agriculture Agriculture & flood control& flood control
Mekong
Nov-03
CollaboratorsCollaborators1. Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Netherlands2. International Water Management institute (IMWI), Sri Lanka3. International Food Policy Institute (IFPRI), USA4. FAO, Italy5. Institute of Infra-structural Hydrological & Environmental Engineering
(IHE), Netherlands 6. Institute for Geo-information and earth Observation (ITC),
Netherlands 7. Irrigation Department (ID), Sri Lanka8. Mekong River Commission (MRC) Cambodia 9. Moscow State University (MSU), Russia 10. SEI-Boston, USA11. Tarbiat Modarres University (TMU), Iran 12. Water Research Institute (WRI), Ghana 13. Wageningen University & Research (WUR), Netherlands14. Center for Development Research (ZEF), Germany
http://www.geo.vu.nl/users/ivmadapt
Nov-03
ADAPT approach
Nov-03
Changes:
Current !Future
Nov-03
SocioSocio-Economic &
Climate Drivers
Pressures
Adaptationstrategies
ImpactsImpacts
Stakeholders
‘State’ Changes
‘Issues & Problems’
Derived from DPSIR approach(Driving forces PressuresStateImpactResponse)
Nov-03
Adaptation strategies to:
waterqualityHealth habitatsecurity SecurityQuantity TransportHydropower
Environment(Human) Food IndustryEnvironment
(ecosystems)
Enhance environmental quality Secure food production Enhance industrial capacity
pcb people at risk
SalmonBODha floodplainforest
ha upstream forest
NaCl Fertilizer
% lateral freedom
% longitudinal freedom
YieldFarm income
tons ofRiver fish
Variation inFarm income
Kw produced # daysUn-navigable
Indicators
Nov-03
Drivers
Population growth
Climate change & variabilityCurrent situation:
- CRU data (Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK)
- IPCC SRES data (Special Report on Emission Scenarios).
- Observed data
Temperature & Precipitation
Future situation:SRES A2 and B2 storylines2010-2039 & 2070-2099
Nov-03
Climate Climate vsvs Development?Development?
Population: changes in meanClimate change: changes in extremes & frequency
Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, R.B. Lammers. 2000. Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate
Change and Population Growth. Science 289: 284-288.
Nov-03
Climate change in seven basins
Nov-03
2070-99HadCM3-A2: HadCM3-B2:
dTMP=4-5oCxPRE=1.28
dTMP=5-6oCxPRE=1.06
Mean Annual Precipitation (mm)Mean Annual Temperature (oC)
Syr Darya Climate 1961-90
Nov-03
Mekong precipitationMekong precipitation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Precipitation (mm/month)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Precipitation (mm/month)
A2A2
B2B2
Nov-03
Mekong temperatureMekong temperature
15
20
25
30
35
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Mean temperature (oC)
A2A2
B2B2
15
20
25
30
35
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091Year
Mean temperature (oC)
Nov-03
Volta climate Volta climate -- HadCM3 A2HadCM3 A2
24
26
28
30
32
34
Tem
pera
ture
(o C)
CRU GCM 1961- 2010- 2070- 1990 2039 2099
400
800
1200
1600
2000
Prec
ipita
tion
(mm
y-1)
CRU GCM 1961- 2010- 2070- 1990 2039 2099
Period 1961- 1990
2010- 2039
2070- 2099
Temperature (oC) 27.3 28.5 31.8Std (oC) 0.5 0.5 0.8CV (%) 1.7 1.7 2.5 Precip. (mm y-1) 1079 1161 1147Std (mm y-1) 115 105 123CV (%) 10.7 9.0 10.7
Nov-03
Mekong
0500
1000150020002500
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
2070
2074
2078
2082
2086
2090
2094
2098
Year[m
m]
Sacramento
0
600
1200
1800
2400
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
2070
2074
2078
2082
2086
2090
2094
2098
Year
[mm
]
Walawe
0600
12001800240030003600
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
2070
2074
2078
2082
2086
2090
2094
2098
Year
[mm
]
Extreme dry year
Extreme wet year
Extreme dry year
Extreme wet year
Extreme dry year
Extreme wet year
CRU
CRU
CRU
B2
B2
B2
Nov-03
Extreme years of precipitation in the Rhine Basin
0200400600800
100012001400
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
2070
2074
2078
2082
2086
2090
2094
2098
Year
[mm
]
Extreme years of precipitation in the Syr Darya Basin
0100200300400500600700
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
2070
2074
2078
2082
2086
2090
2094
2098
Year
[mm
]
Extreme years of precipitation in the Volta Basin
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
2070
2074
2078
2082
2086
2090
2094
2098
Year
[mm
]
Extreme dry year
Extreme wet year
Extreme dry year
Extreme wet year
Extreme dry year
Extreme wet year
Nov-03
Extreme years of precipitation in the Zayandeh Rud Basin
0200400600
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
2070
2074
2078
2082
2086
2090
2094
2098
Year
[mm
]
Extreme dry year
Extreme wet year
Nov-03
Changes in crop yield & water resources
Nov-03
Changes in crop yield & water resources
Use models & expert knowledge
Hydrological models Food production models (dif. Scales)
Nov-03
SWAP model at field scaleSWAP model at field scale
Deep groundwater
Surface runoff
Transpiration
Evaporation
PrecipitationIrrigation
Unsaturatedzone
Saturatedzone
Drainage/subsurface infiltration
Properties:- water retention- hydraulic conductivity
Transport:- water- heat- solutes
Nov-03
Food production modelsYield Walawe / Sri Lanka
Nov-03
Yield Yield BAU, HADCM3_A2BAU, HADCM3_A2
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%Changes in Yield (%)
2010-20392070-2099
Zay_Wheat
Zay_Rice
Wal_Vege
Wal_Rice
Vol_Maize
Vol-Rice
Syr_Wheat
Syr_Cotton
Sac_Tomato
Sac_Rice
Rhi_Wheat
Rhi_SugB
Mek_Maize
Mek_Rice
Nov-03
Effective temperature for rice
05
101520
2530
0 10 20 30 40 50
Daily average temperature (oC)
Dai
ly in
crea
se in
te
mpe
ratu
re s
um (o
C)
Nov-03
Max, min & average temperatureMax, min & average temperature
20
25
30
35
40
45
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Maximum temperature (oC)
5
10
15
20
25
30
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Minimum temperature (oC)
15
20
25
30
35
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Year
Mean temperature (oC)
A2A2
Nov-03
Food production Food production –– SyrSyr DaryaDarya
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1961-90 NA E F I M
A2B2
Wheat Production 2070-99 (mln t)
A2: less water less food
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1961-90 NA E F I M
A2B2
Average Farm Income 2070-99 (USD/farm)
0
1
2
3
1961-90 NA E F I M
A2B2
Cotton Production 2070-99 (mln t)
B2: more water more food
Nov-03
WalaweWalawe -- Impact on Impact on Food SecurityFood Security
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70Threshold Value
Low
Yie
ld Y
ears
1961-19902010-20302070-2099
Number of years with low yields, defined as a year where total rNumber of years with low yields, defined as a year where total rice ice production is lower than the 5 years moving average considering production is lower than the 5 years moving average considering a a
defined Threshold Value. defined Threshold Value.
Basin simulation modelsBasin simulation models
Nov-03
SLURP modelSLURP modelMekong river subMekong river sub--basinsbasins
Raster 0.5 degree
Climate stationwith long records
Sub-basin Area (km2)
Mun 60,912 Chi 55,985 Chi-Mun 4,175 Lancang 225,562 Nam Ou 30,708 Nam Ngum 8,886 Mekong 1 156,509 Mekong 2 20,558 Sekong 28,601 Srepok 48,318 Mekong 3 27,701 Tonlesap 86,594 Delta 40,492 Total 795,000
China
Vietnam Lao PDR
Thailand
Cambodia
Myanmar
MEKONG BASIN
Nov-03
Changes in Mekong flowChanges in Mekong flow
Monthly Q - A2 - Mekong 3
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Month
Q (m3/s) Monthly Q - A2 - Delta
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Month
Q (m3/s)
Monthly Q - B2 - Delta
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Month
Q (m3/s)Monthly Q - B2 - Mekong 3
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
Month
Q (m3/s)
Nov-03
RHINEFLOW-2 modelDischarge Rhine Basin
Current vs A2 scenario
2010-2039Current
2070-2099
Nov-03
Mekong Mekong -- changes in water resourceschanges in water resourcesHigher flood and more droughts in A2, 2010-39
Nov-03
Adaptation strategies
Nov-03
Four Adaptation StrategiesFour Adaptation Strategies
Environmental focusedFood focusedIndustry/Energy FocusedMix of the above
Nov-03
Field / Management/policy scale:1. Side path Salmon2. Open reservoir in dry period3. Use less fertilizer4. Develop sewage treatment plants5. Develop dikes & protection6. Construct flood regulation area7. Regulate mangrove lodging8. Protect wetlands (RAMSAR)
Farmers/manager/policy scale:1. Rainfed to irrigation2. Increase crop intensity3. Salinity control4. Increase water storage capacity5. Re-use waste water6. Desalinisation7. Water pricing8. Water rights9. Insurance arrangements
1. Built new reservoirs2. Develop sluice / barrages3. Sell Kw for Food
‘I’:. Industrial measures
‘F’: Food security measures
‘E’: Environmental measures
Measures Adaptation Strategies
MekongEnv. adaptation
strategy
Food adaptation strategy
Ind. adaptation strategy
Mixed adaptation strategy
E3, E4, E5, E7F6
E4F1, F2, F3, F5
F4I1
E3, E4, E5F1, F2, F3I1
1
2
3
4
Rhine VoltaEnv. adaptation
strategy
Food adaptation strategy
Ind. adaptation strategy
Mixed adaptation strategy
Env. adaptation strategy
Food adaptation strategy
Ind. adaptation strategy
Mixed adaptation strategy
E3, E4, E6F7
E6F2, F5, F9
E6I2
E4, E6F2, F5I2
E4F1, F2, F3, F5
E2, E4, E8F1
F7I3
E2, E4F1, F2I3
ETC
Nov-03
Scenarios for MekongScenarios for Mekong
Reforestation of all shrub land
(17.7%) by mixed forest
Developed for food
Effects of CC, agriculture &
forestry
CC-AgriFor4
CurrentDeveloped for food
Effects of CC & agriculture
CC-Agri3
CurrentCurrentEffects of CCCC-NoAgri2
CurrentDeveloped for food
Current trend without CC
Baseline1
ReforestationAgriculture development
ObjectiveScenarioNo.
Nov-03
Scenario CCScenario CC--NoAgriNoAgri: : higher flood, deeper salinity intrusionhigher flood, deeper salinity intrusion
4616,14013,672Ave 70_99-29-171,311466Min 70_99
151358,69662,118163553,18155,168Max 70_990115,39712,973Ave 10_39
-1561,588592Min 10_39-2-150,18854,016-11045,27145,163Max 10_39
Scenario B2141717,69815,147Ave 70_99
-26-241,370424Min 70_99303566,43974,055194154,26957,659Max 70_99
0015,39912,940Ave 10_39-721,726574Min 10_39
-2550,29457,387-11445,09146,635Max 10_39Scenario A2
15,45912,894Ave 61_901,857560Min 61_90
51,16154,82945,68140,995Max 61_90DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3
% changeDaily discharge (m3/s)% changeMonthly discharge (m3/s)Sub-basin
Nov-03
Scenario CCScenario CC--AgriAgri: : higher flood, deeper salinity intrusionhigher flood, deeper salinity intrusion
3515,90213,512Ave 70_99-30-171,305466Min 70_99
151358,65562,070163453,13855,106Max 70_99-1015,24512,884Ave 10_39
-2061,484592Min 10_39-2-250,16553,979-11145,26445,504Max 10_39
Scenario B2131617,43914,967Ave 70_99
-26-241,370424Min 70_99303566,64874,178194154,49757,723Max 70_99
-1015,23012,843Ave 10_39-721,726574Min 10_39
-1550,53357,629-11445,44646,646Max 10_39Scenario A2
15,45912,894Ave 61_901,857560Min 61_90
51,16154,82945,68140,995Max 61_90DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3DeltaMekng 3DeltaMekong 3
% changeDaily discharge (m3/s)% changeMonthly discharge (m3/s)Sub-basin
Nov-03
Scenario CCScenario CC--AgriForAgriFor: : less severe floodless severe flood
4314 78712 553A 70 99-38-301,149394Min 70_99
162159,09966,124153452,73554,967Max 70_99-9-714,13211,942Ave 10_39
-23-51,423533Min 10_39-6-348,22153,068-9941,72544,536Max 10_39
Scenario B24716,10313,809Ave 70_99
-27-261,356412Min 70_99263164,24571,874163052,77053,370Max 70_99
-9-814,11911,905Ave 10_39-12-91,634508Min 10_39
-2549,92857,410-5343,19042,376Max 10_39Scenario A2
15,45912,894Ave 61_901,857560Min 61_90
51,16154,82945,68140,995Max 61_90Delta
Mekong 3DeltaMekong 3Delta
Mekong 3DeltaMekong 3
% changeDaily discharge (m3/s)% changeMonthly discharge (m3/s)
Sub-basin
Nov-03
Conclusions on basin CCConclusions on basin CC
Adjust GCM data to regional conditions =>
improve regional projections
CC has a clear impact on food & water in all basins. However, not all changes cause negative impacts in Env. and/or Food.
Nov-03
What we have done?SocioSocio-Economic &
Climate Drivers
Pressures
Adaptationstrategies
ImpactsImpacts
Stakeholders
‘State’ Changes
‘Issues & Problems’
1. Described ‘Pressures, issues, problems’
2. Development of Drivers (population & CC/CV)
3. Simulation of Changes (food / hydrology)
4. Development and evaluation of Adaptation str.
What to be done?5. Cost benefit analysis
6. Link basin to global scale
7. Stakeholder involvement
Nov-03
Link basin strategies to global developments…..
Change in suitability for rain-fed wheat (HadCM3-A1FI, 2080s).
Fisher et al. 2002Global Water and Agricultural: Climate Variability and Change Assessment
Global model: Mark Rosegrant (IFPRI) / Ken Strzspek (Univ. Colorado)
Nov-03
World Market Food Prices Influenced by Climate Change
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Rice Wheat Maize Other Grain Soy Cassava andR&T
Crop
Pri
ces
Rela
tive
to C
urre
nt P
rice
s
MaxPlank B2 2020MaxPlank B2 2080Hadley A1 2020Hadley A1 2080Hadley B2 2020Hadley B2 2080
World market food prices under climate changesWorld market food prices under climate changes
Nov-03
Another challenge: adaptation to adaptation strategies Applied by others, including natural & human systems(Ex. people in delta have to adapt to local CC and also adapt to strategies of upstream people
=> may we agree a common strategies for the whole basin?)
- Yes, but also White House effects
!
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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