Informing targeted adaptation and mitigation investments for long term livestock sector
development in Africa
Abdou Fall
9th Conference of Ministers Responsible for Livestock/Animal Resources in Africa, Abidjan, 16-19 April 2013
Outline
Background
Impact of climate change on livestock systems
Impact of livestock on climate change
Approaches to adaptation
Approaches to mitigation
Conclusions
– Livestock production systems in Africa are changing rapidly and there are large numbers of people to feed with shrinking natural resource base
– Lots of drivers of future changes of livestock systems:
– Population/ Urbanization
– Growth in demand
– Competition for natural resources
– Climate change: warmer and more variable
Background
Background
IPCC (2007), Climate change projections, Africa
Very likely increase in temperature, above global means;
Rainfall likely to decrease in Northern Africa and increase in East Africa; inconsistent projections in the Sahel (drier parts and wetter parts)
Extreme events (very likely dry spells and flooding)
BackgroundRegions in Africa that will be most affected by climate change are places with large numbers of vulnerable poor people that depend on livestock as a key livelihood strategy
ILRI has worked in the past:
– To identify how are these regions likely to change
– To identify the magnitudes of the expected impacts on livestock systems
This has informed the design and pilot testing of targeted adaptation an mitigation approaches framed in relation to vulnerability and risk management. 5
Why is climate change so important to poor countries?
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rainfall variation around the mean
GDP growth
de Jong (2005), World Bank (2005)
Ethiopia: Rainfall Variability and Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Impact of climate change on livestock and livestock systems
• Will have important impacts at system level which are poorly understood
• Specific livestock system components that will be affected include:
• Feed and water availability
• Disease distribution
• Adaptation and survival of livestock
Climate change impacts on livestock and livestock systems
Feed quantity, quality: Changes in land use systems, primary productivity,
species composition and quality of the materials
• Tradeoffs – conservation agriculture, feed, fuel
• In semi-arid areas – importance of feed from food crop failures
National Production
Mixed rainfed temperate
Mixed rainfed humid
Mixed rainfed arid
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
Burundi 9 9 14 18 -2 -9 - -
Kenya 15 18 33 46 -5 -10 -1 -8Rwanda 11 15 13 19 5 4 1 3
Tanzania -3 -8 7 9 -2 -6 -5 -11
Uganda -2 -9 5 3 -5 -13 -1 -6
There may be winners as well as losers …
Simulated percentage pasture production changes to 2030 and 2050, by country and system
Mean of 4 combinations of GCM and emissions scenarios
Thornton et al. (2010)
WinnersLosers
Animal Diseases and Climate Change
•Climate change effect on disease is complex and difficult to predict.
•Climate is an important but not the only driver of change in disease distribution (population, intensification of systems)
Climate change impacts on livestock and livestock systems
Tsetse Distribution and Climate Change
Model predictions for to changes in tsetse distribution to 2030 from current distributions for morsitans (left), fusca (centre) and palpalis (right) tsetse groups as a result of changes in length of growing period
No change: Absent
Presence to Absence
Absence to Presence
No change: Present
McDermott et al. (2001), revised 2005
Impact of climate change on livestock and livestock systems
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Heat stress: Higher impact in high altitudes (reduced productivity);
Lower impact in low altitudes where livestock ecotypes have developed fitness traits to adapt to hot/dry or hot/humid ecosystems
Biodiversity : Loss of high value breeds/ ecotypes and their unique genes ( fitness traits).
Impact of Livestock on Climate change
A food chain perspective of GHG emissions (Livestock Long Shadow),
Feed production: Fertilizer, fossil fuel, land use change, fires
Livestock rearing: Enteric ferm., manure mangt.
Post-harvest:
Livestock:9- 18% anthropogenic emissions
80% agricultural emissions
Contributors to climate change
Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa
Changes in growing conditions
to 2050
Climate Change Risk / Impact
Different scenarios of the future
Biophysical vulnerability
Social vulnerability
14 indicators
Data reduction analysis 4 factors, combined
into one “overall” vulnerability indicator
Hot-spots
Hot-spots
Hot-spots of climate risk AND vulnerability
Vulnerability
Highest vulnerability quartile (4)
Second-highest vulnerability quartile (3)
Possibly severe LGP loss (>20% to 2050)
Some MRA systems in Sahel Mixed rainfed and highland perennial systems in Great Lakes region of E Africa LGA systems in parts of E Africa
MRA, LGA systems in large parts of Sahel Livestock systems and some mixed systems in parts of E and southern Africa Coastal systems in E and parts of southern Africa
Possibly moderate LGP loss (5-20% to 2050)
Mixed systems in parts of E Africa
Coastal systems of parts of W Africa Tree crop systems in parts of W Africa Forest-based systems in central Africa Root-based and root-mixed systems in south central Africa
Synthesis of hot-spotsMRA, mixed rainfed arid-semairid systems LGA, rangeland arid-semiarid systems
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Adaptation approaches
Diversification of livelihood strategies: Payment of Environmental Services in rangelands
Largest land use system
Potentially a large C sink
Could be an important income diversification source
Difficulties in: Measuring and monitoring C stocks; Establishment of payment schemes; Dealing with mobile pastoralists, non clear land use and property rights
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Adaptation approaches
Securing livestock assets: Index Based Livestock Insurance, IBLI
Innovative index based insurance to manage weather related risk; drought related livestock losses)… Piloted in Kenya and Ethiopia•Protect productive assets of the poor
•All insured clients in a geographical area are compensated when an external independent indicator (NDVI) that predicts rangeland state, reaches a strike point.
Challenges to go at scale: Need for high quality data to design and price insurance contracts; Effective demand ; Cost effective delivery systems.
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Adaptation approaches
Responsiveness of feeding systems
•Assessment of feed resources a the national and local levels
•‘Moving megajoules’ feed surplus to feed deficit areas
•Introduction of feed processing and storage technologies
Mitigation approaches
Adaptation options can also lead to mitigation and vice-versa: – Increasing efficiency/productivity to produce lower GHG per
unit of product (milk, meat) through sustainable intensification: • Improved feeding systems; Superior breeds• Market incentives: Inputs and services provision• Managing negative environmental externalities
Conclusion
Climate change is happening but we need to act even if the magnitude of the impacts is uncertain
Impacts of climate change on livestock in Africa is heterogeneous but potentially severe, especially in arid and semi-arid areas.
Adaptation to climate change need to be considered in the context of other significant drivers of change
.
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Conclusion
PES and IBLI are potential income diversification and risk management options in the face of climate change that need further investment in Africa
If they are to be successful, both adaptation and mitigation options will require:– investments in terms of infrastructure (roads,
market development, development of water resources, market information, telecom)
– Supportive policies, regulations and institutions23
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