Information Flows and Policy
Use of Climate Diagnostics and Cyclone Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources Management
Under Climatic Uncertainty
in Western North America
Research Team
University of Arizona (U.S.) R. G. Varady (PI) – Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy C. A. Scott (Deputy PI) – Udall Center; Dept. of Geography A. Browning-Aiken – Udall Center G. Garfin – Institute for the Study of Planet Earth (ISPE) B. Morehouse – ISPE M. Wilder – Center for Latin American Studies; Dept. of Geography
El Colegio de Sonora (México) N. Pineda
Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua - IMTA (México) M. Montero
National Center for Atmospheric Research (U.S.) D. Gochis
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (U.S.) A. Ray
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) – CNR II-2048 Project G. de Raga (PI) – UNAM L. Farfan, CICESE
Objectives
Improve flow of climate diagnostics for policy adoption
Assess vulnerability to climate & water variability Urban Rural
Conduct outreach & dissemination to managers
Linkages with CRNII-2048
Two main societal impacts of cyclones loss of life & property water resources (rainfall)
Water surplus or scarcity mediate climate variability impacts for decision-making
Working hypotheses Despite flooding & mudslides, cyclone rainfall
generates positive benefits inland over longer timeframes (months to seasons)
Cyclone wind & storm-surge damages spatially concentrated along coast temporally limited to days & weeks.
Cyclone Henriette - press notes
Comité de Protección Civil Reunido de Manera PermanenteComité de Protección Civil Reunido de Manera Permanente
Sept. 5, 2007 . . .
CIERRAN PUERTO YAVAROSCIERRAN PUERTO YAVAROS
Sept. 6, 2007 . . . Ejército Mexicano aplica Plan de EmergenciaEjército Mexicano aplica Plan de Emergencia
Gobernador Solicita Declaración de Desastre
Gobernador Solicita Declaración de Desastre
2 MUERTOS, 13 MIL DAMNIFICADOS2 MUERTOS, 13 MIL DAMNIFICADOS
PRI y PAN Recopilarán Víveres y PRD Solicitará
Intervención de Autoridades
PRI y PAN Recopilarán Víveres y PRD Solicitará
Intervención de Autoridades
Rainfall benefit
Beneficia el paso del huracán Sofía Zamora, indígena mayo de 82 años, ha vivido
varios huracanes “la lluvia provocará inicio de siembras” “trajo poco viento, pero sí mucha agua, que suele
ser muy escasa” Presas rebasan máximo nivel
372 millones de metros cúbicos de agua en tan sólo 24 horas
659 millones de metros cúbicos totales se consolida próximo ciclo agrícola sin restricciones
Binational climate diagnostic tool
Project implementationQuarter ending:Principal Milestones
Dec.2007
Mar.2008
Jun.2008
Sep.2008
Dec.2008
Mar.2009
Jun.2009
Sep.2009
Project inception meeting and coordination29-Oct
Task A: Climate outlook (version 1) initial distribution &
testing with stakeholders11-Mar
Version 2 9-Jun
Version 316-Sep
Version 412-Dec
Version 510-Mar
Task B principal milestones: Survey of climate information management in 4 cities
15-Mar
Characterization of civil protection & past drought and flood emergencies
15-Sep
Water supply, demand and efficiency assessment15-Mar
4-city comparative assessment of vulnerabilities15-Jun
Task C principal milestones: Characterization of principal agricultural production
risk factors15-Mar
Ranking of socio-economic and gender vulnerabilities in agriculture
15-Jun
Assessment of groundwater vs. surface water irrigation
15-Dec
Characterization of combined climatic & economic risk in agriculture
15-Mar
Assessment of agriculture-urban water transfers and reuse
15-Jun
Task D principal milestones: Regional Climate Forum for Northwest Mexico & Southwest
U.S.10-Apr
1st Interactive Workshop in Hermosillo, mid-June 2008.
15-Jun
2nd Interactive Workshop in Mexico City by mid-March 2009.
15-Mar
Synthesis15-Aug
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