NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008
Impact of Efficiency Improvements on the Energy System: 2000 W Society Concept in Perspective
Stefan Hirschberg
NEEDS Forum 3
NEEDS Forum 3
Cairo, Egypt, 28 January 2008
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 2NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
• Introduction: 2000 W Society• Swiss energy system• Historical importance of increasing energy efficiency• Goals for future increase of energy efficiency• Energy efficiency potential in Switzerland and impacts on Swiss
energy supply• Economic and ecologic efficiency• Conclusions
Content
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 3NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
The vision of the 2000-Watt societySource: novatlantis
ETH-domain vision of 2000 Watt society: „Aspiration of achieving economic growth as planned, while using distinctly less primary energy and clearly reducing CO2 emissions“.
Fossil fuels
Nuclear fuels
Hydro Power
Other Renewables
Wat
t per
cap
ita
Fossil fuels
Non-fossil fuels
Technological reduction potential
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 4NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Human development Index vs. energy consumption
Sour
ce: E
nerg
y-M
irror
No.
18, 2
007
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 7NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Swiss energy system performs well compared to other countries:
Relatively low primary energy demand & CO2-emissions
Reasons:• Structure of the energy system –
Hydro and nuclear power for electricity production• Structure of the economy –
few energy intensive industries, extensive service sector
Thesis I
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 8NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Energy flows in Switzerland (2005)
Households29.6%
Industry19.5%
Services16.7%
Traffic32.5%
Source: BFE 2006
Primary Energy1‘132‘660 TJ
End Energy890‘440 TJ
Agriculture1.7%
66% fossil
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 9NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Greenhouse gas emissions, Switzerland, direct & indirect (grey)
Source: BAFU 2007
Total 93.6 Mio. t CO2-eq in the year 2004
0.9 Mio. t CO2-eqbeverages and tobacco
0.9%
1.2 Mio. t CO2-eqmachines and vehicles
1.3%
3.0 Mio. t CO2-eqmanufactured goods
3.2%
53.0 Mio. t CO2-eqdirect emissions
57%
0.9 Mio. t CO2-eqservices
0.9%
0.1 Mio. t CO2-eqgoods and transports
0.064%
8.3 Mio. t CO2-eqmanufactured goods
9%
13.0 Mio. t CO2-eqfuels and electricity
14%
1.8 Mio. t CO2-eqraw materials
1.9%
4.1 Mio. t CO2-eqfood and living animals
4.3%
7.2 Mio. t CO2-eqchemicals
7.7%
0.2 Mio. t CO2-eqoils, fats and waxes
0.3%
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 10NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Efficiency improvements have played a very important role in the past and will do so also in the future.
Thesis II
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 11NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Impact of efficiency Improvements on energy consumption
Source: IEA (2007)
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 12NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Industry: Structural & „real“ efficiency improvements,1982-1998
Source: Unander 2007
Impact of structural changes on energy
consumption
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 13NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Energy intensity of the economy: CH / EU
Source:BFE 2006
Schweiz
EU:
Ener
gy in
tens
ity [M
J End
ener
gy p
er G
DP (C
HF19
90)] In the 1990‘s, yearly increase in energy efficiency
was ~1.4%; since year 2000, the rate decreasedto only ~0.5% current policy is NOT sufficient
Switzerland
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 14NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Energy Efficiency: one step towards less CO2 emissions
Source: Energie-Spiegel No.10, 2003
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 16NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Efficiency improvements are necessary and highly important but alone not sufficient to respond to the principle goals of sustainable energy policies.
Thesis III
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 17NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Kaya Equation ImplicationsCO2 Emissions = Carbon content of energy x Energy intensity x Production x Population
of economy per person
Goal:Reduction by50% until 2050
Increase byfactor 1.5(IPCC 2000)
Needs to be reduced by factor of 3 to reach the goal
Increase by factor 1.65(1% growth per year)
Needs to be reduced by factor of 5 to reach the goal
Decrease by factor 2.5(-1.8% per year in alternativescenario of IEA 2004)
Needs to be reducedby factor of 2 to reachthe goal
Necessitates very strong expansionof ”carbon-free” energy sources
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 18NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Kaya Equation ImplicationsCO2 Emissions = Carbon content of energy x Energy intensity x Production x Population
of economy per person
Goal:Reduction by50% until 2050
Increase byfactor 1.5(IPCC 2000)
Needs to be reduced by factor of 3 to reach the goal
Increase by factor 2.15(1.6% growth per year)
Needs to be reduced by factor of 6.5 to reach the goal
Decrease by factor 1.6(-1% per year)
Needs to be reducedby factor of 4 to reachthe goal
Necessitates very strong expansionof all “carbon-free” technologies
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 19NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
We can reduce energy consumption in Switzerland by use of most efficient technologies until 2050 by maximum 30%.
Energy efficiency alone does not guarrantee a substantial reduction of fossil fuel uses and thus CO2-emissions.
Very ambitious reductions of CO2-emissions do not necessarily require reaching the 2000 Watt level per person.
Thesis IV
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 21NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Swiss energy system (2050): reduced primary energy consumption & CO2-emissions
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
5.2
KW
4.9
kW
4.8
kW
4.5
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Pri
mar
y E
ner
gy
[k
W/C
ap
ita]
RenewablesHydroNuclearNatural Gas OilCoal
No limit
CO2 reduction per decade 2010 - 2050
Primary Energy per capita
target
Source: Schulz 2007
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 23NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1105
.2 k
W (
No
Lim
it)
4.9
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.8
kW
(N
o L
imit)
4.5
kW
(N
o L
imit)
5.0
kW
ta
rge
t
5.0
kW
ta
rge
t
5.0
kW
ta
rge
t
5.0
kW
ta
rge
t
4.5
kW
ta
rge
t
4.5
kW
ta
rge
t
4.5
kW
ta
rge
t
4.5
kW
ta
rge
t
4.0
kW
ta
rge
t
4.0
kW
ta
rge
t
4.0
kW
ta
rge
t
4.0
kW
ta
rge
t
3.5
kW
ta
rge
t
3.5
kW
ta
rge
t
3.5
kW
ta
rge
t
3.5
kW
ta
rge
t
0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15%Dis
cou
nte
d A
dd
itio
nal
Sys
tem
Co
sts
[bill
ion
CH
F 20
00]
*
Additional costs in efficiency scenarios
No limit
CO
2 r
ed
uc
tio
n p
er
de
ca
de
20
10
- 2
05
0
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy
pe
r c
ap
ita
ta
rge
t
Source: Schulz 2007
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 24NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
A substantially higher energy efficiency is feasible in Switzerland – especially in the building and transport sectors.
→ energy consumption can be substantially reduced.
Thesis V
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 26NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Heat supply in households(Scenario 3.5 kWPE / -10% CO2 per decade)
Sour
ce: S
chul
z 20
07
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 27NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Mobility: End energy consumption
3.5 kWPE 3.5 kWPE / -10% CO2 pro Decade
Sopurce: Schulz 2007
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 28NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Electricity in the future will be more important than ever for our service economy.
Therefore maintaining CO2-free electricity production will be decisive for enabling effective and ambitious reduction of CO2-emissions.
Thesis VI
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 30NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
905.
2 kW
4.9
kW
4.8
kW
.
4.5
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
5.0
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.5
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
4.0
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
3.5
kW
0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Ele
ctr
icit
y P
rod
uc
tio
n [
TW
h]
Solar Power
Wind Turbines
Biomass CHP
Natural Gas CHP
Biomass Thermal
Natural Gas Thermal
Nuclear Power
Hydro Power
Electricity generation in CH (2050) with lower energy consumption & CO2-emissions
No limit
CO2 reduction
per decade 2010 - 2050
Primary Energy per capita
target
2005: 57,9 TWh
Source: Schulz 2007
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 32NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Total (internal plus external) costs of energy systems (though controversial) reflect economic & ecologic efficiency of the various options.
Accounting for external costs is favourable to renewables and nuclear.
Technology improvements can change the „ranking“ of the options – some renewables have the most promising improvement potentials.
Thesis VII
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 33NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Total costs of current and future electricity supply systems
Source: Hirschberg et al., 2007
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 38NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
Electricity from New renewables: Potential & costs (CH)
Costs [Rp/kWh]
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Photovoltaic
Wind power
Geothermal
Biomass
Small hydro< 1 MW
2.0%
3.6 - 5.5%
0 - 3.6%
1.1%
0.2 - 4.9%
Shares in total electricity production2000 2035
5-25 4-20
20-40 10-30
7-15
12-25 12-15
50-90 22-42
No unitoperational
20042035
PSI-GaBE/BFE Energieperspektiven; Hirschberg et al. 2005
Stefan Hirschberg, 28 January 2008, 43NEEDS Forum 3
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis The Energy Departments
• Explicit goals are needed for the strong reduction of CO2-emissions. The goal of just reducing primary energy is not adequate.
• We need ambitious but realistic goals for 2050:3–4 t CO2 per capita with maximum 1500-2000 Watt fossil energy.
• Transformation of our overall energy system, in particular of energy use in residential and transportation sectors, is needed and requires targeted long-term policy measures.
• The transformation is associated with sizeable costs.• The production of electricity will increase substantially. • Efficiency improvements are of central importance for meeting the main
sustainable policy goals. They are part of a mix of several options that also includes carbon-free technologies.
Conclusions
Top Related