77
After almost a secular movement, the stock markets seem to be resting and in fact lost some ground. An upward trend in the markets for months together can lead us to extrapolate the returns linearly and therefore a downward movement like this can disappoint us even more. However volatility is embedded in the markets and the best way to look at equity investments is with a long term horizon. At the same time it is important to understand the reason behind the volatility and more importantly to know if it is still a good time to invest into Indian equity markets.
India has been one of the top performing markets globally last year, on account of election of the new government at the centre and decline in commodity prices. The other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China)
Anup BagchiMD & CEO
ICICI Securities Ltd.
countries' economies, which are mostly commodity driven, have had a difficult period and underperformed the Indian markets due to the sharp decline in world commodities prices. Several measures have been taken by these economies to revive their GDP (gross domestic product) growth.
China's move to lower interest rates and increase lending targets also led to partial recovery in commodity prices. Consequently, YTD (year-to-date) the Chinese, Russian and Brazilian markets outperformed the Indian markets amid a lower base. Being underweight on these markets, the left out syndrome induced the global fund managers increase their fund flows to these markets, thereby creating volatility in the global and Indian markets. We believe that the current volatility in the Indian markets should be used to build strong equity portfolio as the government measures and lower commodity prices will revive the domestic economy, going forward.
The Indian markets have underperformed global emerging markets YTD on account of re-allocation of funds by global investors coupled with uncertainty on tax front, unseasonal rains and weak corporate earnings in the domestic market. However, in the last few months, we have seen improvement in lead indicators like passenger vehicles and FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) sales, which suggests improving sentiment.
1ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
We expect the private and government capex (capital expenditure) plans will follow and lead to improvement in economic growth rate. Also, several measures taken by the government such as auctioning of coal mines, allowing FDI (foreign direct investment) in several sectors, online forest clearances, etc. will result in higher investments in the economy. With lower commodity prices and inflation at comfortable levels, we expect interest rates reduction in the medium term. We believe lower interest rates will revive the investment cycle and result in increased corporate earnings for the next 2-3 years.While economic growth has already started to pickup, corporate earnings revival will follow with a lag. Sensex earnings grew in mid single digit in FY15, while we expect robust higher teen growth for next two years.
Also, benchmark indices are currently trading at 14x FY17E earnings, which are far lower than historical bull-run multiples, suggesting scope for further appreciation. Historically, the Indian markets rally has been marked by several interim phases of sharp correction and consolidation. We believe such phases of correction make markets healthy and it gets prepared for the next phase of Bull Run. An investor should not be apprehensive in such times and use the opportunity to accumulate quality stocks at fair prices. Moreover, relatively weaker prospects for competing asset classes like gold and real estate will further stimulate money flow into equities.
We believe, India is at a sweet spot with decline in crude prices, lower agricultural commodity, rapidly declining industrial commodity prices and lower interest rates across the globe. Secondly, the country has a majority government for the first time in thirty years, which enables it to take tough decisions and pass key bills. Also, the past few measures from the government point towards a progressive, reformist and growth-oriented policy stance, which augurs well for the economy. Lower input prices and quick policy actions reduce the overall cost of growth.
While we may continue to see interim blips in the equity markets, as the major economies across the globe try calibrating liquidity in a bid to revive growth, the Indian economy witnesses confluence of several positive conditions, helping it emerge as the fastest growing major economy. Backed by this belief, we see the markets amidst a multi-year, structural bull run and the current volatility opens an opportunity to build a good long-term portfolio.
Our message remains the same - 'Keep investing and stay invested for your life goals.' Through this magazine and our website www.icicidirect.com we want to make an earnest attempt to partner with you in setting and achieving your financial goals. Give us an opportunity to serve you, walk into any of your Neighbourhood Financial Superstore and talk to us.
2
The prices of crude oil play an important role in keeping economy in good health, especially for oil-importing countries like India. India imports around 75 per cent of its crude oil requirements. Since crude oil forms the major chunk of our import bill, any change in its price impacts our trade bill, which in turn, impacts our fiscal balance and other macro economic indicators such as GDP (gross domestic product), inflation, interest rates, etc. For instance, every $10 per barrel fall in oil price can boost India's GDP growth by 10 basis points (bps), lower consumer inflation by 20 bps and improve current account and fiscal balance by 0.5% and 0.1% of GDP, according to one of the global financial services firms Nomura.
Oil prices over the past one year have fallen sharply, from over $100 per barrel to below $60 per barrel. What has led to this heavy fall? Will the price bounce back or will it stabilize? These are some of the important questions which many of you may have. We try to answer these in our cover story of this edition. All in all, we believe, lower crude oil prices are here to stay and it will help our economy to grow.
Further, since the equity markets have turned volatile of late, you may be unsure with your investments. To help you stay invested, we have Mr. Pankaj Pandey, Head - Research, ICICIdirect, talking about how to use current volatility to build a strong equity portfolio.
While in fixed-income space, as interest rates are expected to go down further, there is a potential to benefit by investing in long duration funds. Do read our section of fixed income. The issue also offers comprehensive information and analysis on some of the top performing funds.
Lastly, if you wish to get clarity on different aspects of personal finance or any other money matter through Ask our Planner, you may write to us at [email protected]. So read on, stay updated and involved. Do write in with your feedback and share your thoughts.
Editor & Publisher : Abhishake Mathur, CFA
Coordinating Editor : Yogita Khatri
Editorial Board : Sameer Chavan, CWM®, Pankaj Pandey
CMEditorial Team : Azeem Ahmad, Nithyakumar VP CFP , Nitin Kunte, Sachin Jain, Sheetal Ashar
ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
Your magazine is now also available on www.magzter.com, a digital newsstand.
3ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
MD Desk.................................................................................................... 1
Editorial......................................................................................................2
Contents.....................................................................................................3
News.........................................................................................................4
Equity Market Round-up & Outlook................................................................5
Debt Market Round-up & Outlook................................................................. 8
Getting Technical with Dharmesh Shah.......................................................11
Derivatives Strategy by Amit Gupta.............................................................13
Stock Ideas: Bharti Infratel and Timken India...............................................21
Flavour of the Month: Lower oil prices to keep India's growth story intactCrude oil prices have dropped sharply (~40%) over the past one year. What has led to this heavy fall? Will the price bounce back or will it stabilize? Read on to find out…............................................................29
Expert Speak: Use current volatility to build strong equity portfolioBy Pankaj Pandey, Head - Research, ICICIdirect...................................38
Ask Our Planner: Options available at maturity of a PPF accountYour personal finance queries answered…..........................................41
Mutual Fund Analysis: Short-term Credit Opportunities FundsWith interest rates expected to go down further, there is a potential to benefit by investing in these funds.......................................................44
Mutual Fund Top Picks Here we present our research team's top mutual fundrecommendations, across equity and debt categories…....................50
Equity Model Portfolio...............................................................................52
Quiz Time..................................................................................................57
Monthly Trends.........................................................................................58
Premium Education Programmes Schedule..................................................62
4ICICIdirect Money Manager
Gold monetisation scheme: Interest on deposits to be tax-exemptSeeking to mobilise gold held by households and institutions, government came out with a draft scheme under which a person or entity can earn interest by depositing the metal with banks. As per the draft guidelines, minimum gold deposit is proposed at 30 gms and the interest earned on it would be exempt from income tax as well as capital gains tax. A person or institution holding surplus gold can get it valued from BIS-approved hallmarking centres, open a Gold Savings Account in banks for a minimum period of one year and earn interest in either cash or gold units, the draft said.
Courtesy: The Times of India
There is some comforting thought for Indian stock investors despite the volatility in the market. Exposure of most large offshore funds is the highest ever and even more than the weights that emerging market stock indices give India. Global Funds, Asia-Pacific Funds and Emerging Market Funds are overweight on India by 120 to 500 basis points (bps) compared with their benchmark indices. For instance, these EM funds have parked 10.9% of their money in India as against a country weight of 6.7% in the MSCI EM Index - a widely tracked index by fund managers. Indeed, this is the highest weight these global funds have accorded to any emerging market in the past 20 years.
Courtesy: The Economic Times
India's weightage is now the highest ever assigned to any EM
India might soon have regional insurance companies operating only in select locations and regions. In its proposed amendments to the Registration of Indian Insurance Companies Regulations, the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai) has asked new applicants to specify the city, region or concentration (rural/urban) that they will concentrate on. “Prospective applicants need not open branches all across the country. They can have operations only in few cities or rural, urban centres,” said Irdai officials.
Courtesy: Business Standard
India to have regional insurers soon
Investors may soon be able to view all the details of dividend payments by companies, interest income and redemption proceeds in a single consolidated statement. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) recently gave an in-principle nod to allow depositories to act as a single point of contact for all cash benefits. National Securities Depository Ltd and Central Depository Services Ltd are the two depositories in India. At present, rules require companies to give all cash benefits through ECS (electronic clearing service) credit into an investor's bank account. But, investors with several investments end up getting confused on the status of interest income payments and redemptions. The proposed system will help investors see all securities market activities for a particular period.
Courtesy: The Economic Times
Investors can now view all cash benefits in a single statement
May 2015
5ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
Dismal Q4 earnings, rising crude prices, global sell-off to keepmarkets on tenterhooks
Domestic equity benchmarks
posted losses in April, ending
the month down ~3.5% amid
weak corporate earnings and
global equity sell-off. During
the month, the Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) maintained status
quo as expected in its bi-
monthly April policy. The repo
rate was kept unchanged at
7.5% while cash reserve ratio
(CRR) was maintained at 4%.
Inflation fell further for March
2015. A consumer price index
(CPI) came in at 5.2% while a
wholesale price index (WPI)
came in at -2.3% and both
m o d e r a t e d f a s t e r- t h a n -
expected (Bloomberg Survey:
CPI: 5.4%; WPI:-2%) on easing
food inflation.
The mood was also influenced
by several earnings releases.
The overall trend in earnings
growth remained subdued.
Tier-I Information Technology
(IT) companies reported a
weak set of Q4FY15 earnings
as constant currency revenues
grew 1.3% QoQ vs. 3.8% in Q3
& 1.7% in Q4FY14. Company
specific structural issues
(select verticals and clients)
coupled with cross currency
headwinds dragged overall
revenue growth. The Q4FY15
performance of private banks
was by-and-large healthy with
profit after tax (PAT) traction of
~20% year-on-year (YoY), on
an average. For most banks
asset quality was steady. The
o v e r a l l o p e r a t i o n a l
performance was sound with
margins maintained quarter-
on-quarter (QoQ). The telecom
sector saw robust volume
growth in both voice minutes
and da ta consumpt ion .
However, the fall in realisations
was a concern. Major cement
companies reported volume
de-growth of 3-4% during the
quarter, which can mainly be
attributed to low government
spending on infrastructure
coupled with a slowdown in
EQUITY MARKET ROUND-UP& OUTLOOK
6ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
the private sector capex cycle.
Further, unseasonal rains also
led to a fall in cement demand
from the rural segment, which
also had a negative impact of
~280 basis points (bps) on
margins. Maruti's numbers
came in above expectation.
The benchmark 10-year bond
yield ended the month at
7.83%, up 9 bps on an month-
on-month (MoM) basis. Crude
( B r e n t ) e n d e d a t
~ U S $ 6 4 . 8 / b a r r e l v s .
US$53.3/barrel at the end of
March. Gold prices ended the
month at US$1184.3/ounce,
flat on an MoM basis. The
rupee depreciated to 63.4/$
against 62.4/$ at the end of
March.
Global markets continued to
be influenced by worries about
the long-term outlook for
interest rates and rising
commodity prices. The Fed left
interest rates unchanged and
acknowledged that economic
`
`
Markets across geographies
growth slowed during winter. It
showed an unwillingness to
speculate about the outcome
of the June meeting. US GDP
(gross domestic product)
inched up just 0.2% in Q1
following the 2.2% growth
seen in the Q4 as against
expectations of 1.0% increase.
The US markets ended on a
positive note on the back of the
Fed's comments regarding the
outlook for interest rates in the
l a s t p o l i c y m e e t t h a t
overshadowed weak macro
data and mixed corporate
earnings. The Dow Jones, S&P
500 and the Nasdaq were up
0 .4%, 0 .9% and 0 .8%,
respectively, during the month.
The European markets were
mixed with the UK FTSE and
French CAC registering gains
of 2.8% and 0.3% in the month
and the German Dax posting
losses to the tune of 4.3%. In
Asian markets, Hong Kong and
Shangha i SSEC pos ted
substantial gains of 13% and
18.5%, respectively, while the
EQUITY MARKET ROUND-UP& OUTLOOK
7ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
Japan Nikkei was up 1.6%. The
Indian markets, posted losses
wherein both the Sensex as
well as the Nifty down 3.4%
and 3.6%, respectively.
The foreign institutional
investors (FIIs) were net
buyers to the tune of ~ 7,627
crore whereas the domestic
institutional investors (DIIs)
were net buyers to the tune of
~ 10,378 crore.
The Nifty and Sensex posted
huge losses of 3.4% and 3.6%,
respectively, during the
month. Except the BSE FMCG
Index and Metals Index, which
were up ~8.1% and 3.5%, all
major indices were in the red.
BSE Technology (-7.4%), BSE
Healthcare (-6.1%), BSE
Realty(-5.5%), BSE Auto
Index(-4.8%) were major
losers. BSE Power, Oil & Gas
posted losses to the tune of
1.5% and 1.2%. The BSE
Bankex was marginally up by
0.8%.
Domestic markets
`
`
Outlook: Profit booking likely to
persist as crude, currency issues
resurface
Expectat ions of a weak
monsoon, a global sell-off in
stocks & bonds and lack of
clarity on minimum alternate
tax (MAT), which the tax
department has demanded
from foreign funds on past
i n v e s t m e n t s ( d e s p i t e
clarification), added to the
bearish trend in April. The
other concern is crude oil
prices, which are now about
40% above their recent lows.
Add to this, the falling rupee
and we have an ideal situation
for profi t booking after
considering ~27% of Trailing
Twelve Months (TTM) gains
(Nifty) as of March 31. The Q4
numbers continue to portray a
dismal picture while the
reforms process continues to
be in the pause mode. With no
near-term triggers, we expect
markets to cont inue to
languish at current levels.
EQUITY MARKET ROUND-UP& OUTLOOK
8ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
DEBT MARKET ROUND-UP& OUTLOOK
Easing inflation raises hopes for a rate cut
The yield on the benchmark 10-year government securities (G-Sec) reversed from 7.73% to 7.86% by April end and further moved up to 7.9%. A weak rupee coupled with a rise in global crude oil prices weighed on gilts. The rupee has depreciated 3% against the US dollar from 62.5 |/$ to 64.1 |/$ while crude oil rose to 63.84 $/per barrel, an increase of 20% since the start of FY16. The only comforting data that
came in the month was consumer price inflation (CPI) April 2015, which moderated to below 5% in line with market expectation at 4.9% and the wholesale price index (WPI) April 2015 at -2.3%. The index of industrial production (IIP) growth slowed to 2.1% against expectation of 2.8%. Both data, slower inflation and moderate growth, increased hopes of a rate cut in the upcoming June policy.
While the G-sec yields have moved up, corporate bond yields, so far, have not risen so sharply leading to a credit spread compression.
Government Securities (G-Sec) Yield Apr-15 Mar-15 Change (bps)
Corporate Bond Yields Apr-15 Mar-15 Change (bps)
10 year 7.99 7.74 24.9
5 year 8.02 7.75 27.5
3 year 8.19 7.79 39.5
1 year 7.91 7.88 3.6
AAA 10 year 8.49 8.40 9.3
AAA 5 year 8.49 8.42 6.9
AAA 3 year 8.50 8.46 3.2
AAA 1 year 8.52 8.54 -1.5
AA 10 year 9.06 9.01 4.5
AA 5 year 8.96 9.04 -8.1
AA 3 year 8.97 9.09 -11.8
AA 1 year 9.05 9.17 -12.0
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com, Research
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com, Research
9ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
DEBT MARKET ROUND-UP& OUTLOOK
Credit Spread Mar-15 Feb-15 Change (bps)
G sec - AAA 10 year 51 67 -16
G sec - AAA 5 year 47 67 -21
G sec - AAA 3 year 31 67 -36
G sec - AAA 1 year 61 66 -5
Forex Rates Apr-15 Mar-15 Change (%)
USD - INR 63.42 62.50 -1%
Euro - INR 70.95 67.20 -5%
Pound Sterling - INR 97.75 92.45 -5%
Japanese Yen - INR 53.53 52.11 -3%
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com, Research
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com, Research
L i q u i d i t y r e m a i n e d comfortable throughout the month with banks having parked on an average 279 crore on daily basis with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Short-term yields, therefore,
`
corrected with call rates d r o p p i n g t o 7 . 1 % a n d certificate of deposit (CD)/ commercial paper (CP) yields in the one to three months duration down ~20-30 basis points (bps).
Money Market Rates Apr-15 Mar-15 Change (bps)
Call 7.12 7.30 -18
CBLO 7.51 7.46 4
Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rates Apr-15 Mar-15 Change (bps)
12 Months 8.41 8.37 4
6 Months 8.34 8.40 -6
3 Months 8.29 8.52 -23
1 Month 8.23 8.84 -61
Commercial Paper (CP) Rates Apr-15 Mar-15 Change 12 Months 8.99 8.79 20
6 Months 8.89 8.85 4
3 Months 8.73 8.86 -14
1 Month 8.43 9.20 -77
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com, Research
10ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
DEBT MARKET ROUND-UP& OUTLOOK
Volume Data (Average for the month – ` Crore) Mar-15 Feb-15 Change
Average ( Crore)
Call Volume 14542 13959 583
CBLO Volume 77285 84815 -7530
LAF Volume -279.68 180.4 -460.08
Total ( Crore)
FII Debt Market 3483 6334 -2851.41
DII Debt Market 28649 77299 -48650
`
`
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com, Research
OutlookWe believe the odds remain in f a v o u r o f g o v e r n m e n t secur i t ies (G -Sec) y ie ld trending down over the next one or two years. The front loaded rate cuts by the RBI can push overall interest rates down depending on how soon banks transit it into the system by repricing their assets and liabilities lower. The central government has signed a memorandum with the RBI setting out a clear inflation objective to bring the inflation rate to the mid-point of the band of 4 +/- 2%. CPI, as per our assessment, should average close to 5% for Fy16 (on assumption of normal monsoon and a s tab le currency). The government's c o m m i t m e n t t o w a r d s controlling price shocks and steps taken to improve the s u p p l y c h a i n a r e commendable. Also, global prices that have corrected sharply are supportive, be they
crude, metal or food prices. Hence, inflation should likely stay on the intended path. This creates room for the RBI to cut rates by another 25 bps to earn a real return of 2%. On the supply front, the Budget has pegged the market borrowing for FY16 at 6 lakh crore on a gross basis and 4.56 lakh crore on a net basis. Both gross and net market borrowings w e r e c l o s e t o m a r k e t expectations. Borrowings related concern is expected to come down, g iven the government's commitment towards reducing the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP by Fy17.
Investors may look to lock in the current close to 8-9% accruals available on corporate bonds via investing in short term credit opportunities funds. While interest rates may come down, returns in long bond and gilt funds returns may moderate compared to last year.
``
ICICIdirect Money Manager
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Emergence of value area = Buying time
May 2015
The pullback in equities at the start of April 2015 fizzled out precisely near our earmarked resistance area of 29000, 8800 (Sensex, Nifty). The benchmarks reversed lower after making highs of 29094, 8844. In the ensuing correction, they have breached their March 2015 lows (27248/8269) to form a lower-high lower-low on monthly time-frame for the first time in 12 months. The violation of higher high/low sequence on the m o n t h l y s c a l e s i g n a l s d e c e l e r a t i o n o f u p w a r d momentum and paves the way for a round of consolidation in the coming month.
We believe the current decline will get arrested near the key medium-term value area of 27000-26300, 8185-8000 levels in the coming month. As the selling momentum gets absorbed near the key value area we expect the benchmarks to undergo a basing formation which will lay the ground work for a pullback towards 28250, 8580 over the coming months.
We believe the price-wise correct ion is approaching
maturity as the benchmarks have already corrected over 10% from recent life-time highs (30024, 9119) and are poised near the key medium-term value area of 27000-26300, 8185-8000 levels, which is the confluence of following technical parameters:
Ø The long-term rising 52-week EMA (Exponent ia l Moving Average) is currently placed at 26760, 8048 levels. The index approaching its long term moving average after a span of over 14 months will trigger value buying.
Ø Price parity of the current down move from April 2015 high (29094) with the March 2015 decline (2776 points) is placed at 26318, 7994 levels.
Ø At around 27000, 8000 the entire correction from life-time high (30024,9119) will equal the magnitude of the last major declining segment of 2013 (20443-17448), which measured 2995 points.
Ø T h e m o n t h l y l o w s o f December 2014 (26469, 7961) and January 2015 (26776, 8065) are placed in the vicinity of 8000 levels.
Based on the aforementioned observations, we believe the benchmarks should hold the 27000-26300, 8185-8000 support
11
ICICIdirect Money Manager May 201512
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The views expressed in the article are personal views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of ICICI Securities.
current decline from life-time highs will equal the magnitude of the 2013 fall in percentage terms (15%) at around 25500, 7700. We do not expect the markets to sustain below these levels as value buying will outstrip supply and lead to a gradual recovery.
in the current correction. Only a decisive breach of the 26300, 8000 support threshold would lead to a panic situation in markets and trigger a further decline towards 25500, 7700. We believe any such panic decline towards the 25500, 7700 region should be used as a buying opportunity. The
BSE Sensex – Monthly Candlestick Chart
We believe the price wise correction is approaching maturity as the index is poised near the key value area of 27000-26300. The index is expected to undergo a basing formation in the coming month before resolving higher towards 28250 being the 61.8% retracement of the current decline
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
The 14 week RSI is poised at a
reading of 46. Historically, the bull market support for weekly RSI is placed at 38–40 readings. The oscillator approaching this zone will trigger a bullish reversal on price front
Ø
The 52 week EMA is placed at 26760Ø
Price parity of April 2015 decline with the March 2015 fall is placed at 26318 levels
Ø The entire decline from life highs will achieve price equality with the 2013 correction at around 27000
levels
Ø
Monthly lows of January 2015 is placed in the at 26776 levels
61.8% @ 28250
Dec’14
26469
30024
Jan’15
26776
ICICIdirect Money Manager May 201513
DERIVATIVES STRATEGY
Uptrend likely to resume if Nifty holds 8600. On downsides, key support placed near 8250.
Nifty witnesses profit booking after positive news outcomes
Nifty reacts negatively to all positive news suggesting factoring in
8,300
8,400
8,500
8,600
8,700
8,800
8,900
9,000
27-F
eb
1-M
ar
Union Budget
RBIrate cut
US FOMC delaying Int rate lift off ...
3-M
ar
5-M
ar
7-M
ar
9-M
ar
11-M
ar
13-M
ar
15-M
ar
17-M
ar
19-M
ar
21-M
ar
23-M
ar
25-M
ar
27-M
ar
The March series ended with a loss of 4% as participants booked profits on every positive news flow, suggesting these news flows were already priced in.
The market breadth (as measured by NSE Advances – Declines) was negative for most of the month.
The strongest performance came from pharma and healthcare, which moved up consistently (more than 11%) despite the selling seen in other sectors.
A m o n g s e c t o r s , m a j o r weakness was seen in metals, consumer goods & power. Banking also corrected over 13% from highs it made on March 4 post rate cut.
Amit Gupta
Head - Derivatives Research,ICICI Securities
ICICIdirect Money Manager May 201514
DERIVATIVES STRATEGY
Nifty expiry returns in trailing 12 months
-4%-3%
9%
-4%
3%3%3%4%
6%
3%
6%
4%
-1%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Mar
'15
Feb'1
5
Jan'1
5
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
MayAp
r
Mar
Sectoral performance in March: Broad based weakness
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Consumer Goods
ICICIdirect Money Manager May 201515
DERIVATIVES STRATEGY
Nifty key support lies near 8200-8250
Since the election verdict, FIIs have created long index future p o s i t i o n s o n m u l t i p l e occasions in blocks. In the first instance, the Nifty moved up 8.5%, in the second instance it moved up 11% while recently in January 2015, the Nifty moved up 10%. The key takeaway from this analysis is that from the point from where buy ing in index fu ture commences the level has not been violated (the chart below displays the same).
T h e r e c e n t b u y i n g commenced from 8250 on January 13, 2015. Hence, the Nifty is unlikely to dip below
this level. This would remain a positional support for the Nifty i n t h e c u r r e n t u p w a r d momentum, which started post the election verdict.
H i g h e s t p u t o p t i o n s concentration at the 8200 strike also suggests the key support around this level.
Nifty futures OI at the inception of the April series is 21.8 million shares, which is the lowest OI l s i n c e J a n u a r y 2 0 1 5 , suggesting lower leverage in the Nifty. This suggests that on any intermediate decline, a fall could get arrested.
Large index future buying starts at 8250 in 20151st instance Aug 14 2nd instance Oct 14 3rd Instance Jan 15
11-Aug-14 162.46 17-Oct-14 1030.18 13-Jan-15 440.83
12-Aug-14 1390.77 20-Oct-14 1455.01 14-Jan-15 178.2
13-Aug-14 717.77 21-Oct-14 398.53 15-Jan-15 3896.76
14-Aug-14 604.91 22-Oct-14 751.09 16-Jan-15 -848.13
19-Aug-14 451.36 27-Oct-14 680.01 19-Jan-15 56.02
20-Aug-14 276.72 28-Oct-14 592.15 20-Jan-15 1749.06
21-Aug-14 -157.58 29-Oct-14 2166.72 21-Jan-15 483.32
22-Aug-14 448.55 30-Oct-14 1286.49 22-Jan-15 901.84
25-Aug-14 191.55 31-Oct-14 1485.22 23-Jan-15 1371.99
26-Aug-14 269.04 3-Nov-14 163.56 27-Jan-15 1731.69
27-Aug-14 437.8 5-Nov-14 721.73 28-Jan-15 -1301
28-Aug-14 847.03 7-Nov-14 332.44 42033 1867
Inr in Cr 5640.38 Inr in Cr 11063.13 Inr in Cr 10527.58
Nifty returns 8.50% Nifty returns 11% Nifty returns 10%
Nifty Low 7568 Nifty Low 7720 Nifty Low 8248
ICICIdirect Money Manager May 201516
DERIVATIVES STRATEGY
lNifty levels where major FII buying in Nifty futures
Key resistance for Nifty placed near 8600…It may enter consolidation below this level
Broad based profit booking was seen in the March series within index heavyweights, leading the Nifty to end 4% lower for the series. As we head into the April series, the Q4 numbers are likely to decide the future course of action from here on.
Why 8600 is key level on higher side ?In the recent Nifty decline, highest additions were seen at the 8600 Call strike, which is likely to impose a resistance.
Nifty futures current premium is high. Historically, at high Nifty premiums, the index enters into consolidation.
In the last two series, 8500 was the highest Put base, which was breached on March expiry day. Hence, a move above 8600 would finally conform the sustainability above the pivotal area of 8500-8600.
In the last series, the market fell even on positive outcomes. It suggests most positive news flows were already priced in.
ICICIdirect Money Manager May 201517
DERIVATIVES STRATEGY
Within the Nifty sigma band, the grey line (which is the moving average of the entire data) is placed near 8600 levels.
In December 2014, after making a high of 8630, the Nifty
struggled to surpass this level till January 2015. Thus, this level could again impose a resistance, going ahead.
Nifty options build-up in April series
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8000
8100
8200
8300
8400
8500
8600
8700
8800
8900
9000
OI i
n M
illio
n S
hare
s
Call OI Put OI
lNifty 2 sigma Band: Sigma contraction suggests consolidation
5700
6200
6700
7200
7700
8200
8700
9200
9700
Apr
-14
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Jul
-14
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oc
t-1
4
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Fe
b-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Nifty Mean+ 2 SD Average Mean - 2 SD
ICICIdirect Money Manager May 201518
DERIVATIVES STRATEGY
Bank Nifty: 17550 remains important support for banking index
The Bank Nifty was the key trigger for the weakness in the broader markets. The banking index fell over 13% from its March 4 highs of 20540 post RBI’s second rate cut.
In the recent declines, short addition was seen in the b a n k i n g i n d e x a n d heavyweights. Both PSU and private sector heavyweights have started the April series with higher open interest. The Bank Nifty future OI swelled close to 30%. These positions have seen a smooth rollover of positions into the April series, suggesting the pressure may continue. The current Bank Nifty future OI at of 2.17 million shares is the highest OI at inception since May 2014.
The current price ratio (Bank Nifty/Nifty) is at 2.15, which is
likely to deteriorate further as short positions are intact in the banking segment. It is likely to drag the index lower and the price ratio towards 2.11 levels. Expectations of a weak set of Q4 numbers for many banks are likely to keep the short covering move in check.
Look ing at the opt ions segment, the current scattered build-up is slowly focusing on the 17500 Put and 18500 Call. Thus, ahead of RBI’s policy review on April 7, the banking index is likely to trade in this band.
A directional move is expected from the Q4 numbers, which are expected to get kick started with results from IndusInd Bank in the middle of April.
Bank Nifty options build-up for April series
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1750
0
1770
0
1790
0
1810
0
1830
0
1850
0
1870
0
1890
0
1910
0
1930
0
1950
0
Call OI Put OI
ICICIdirect Money Manager May 201519
DERIVATIVES STRATEGY
After over 30% returns in 2014, Indian equities one of the biggest underperformers after recent fall in 2015
At the start of the year, most brokerages and fund houses (domestic & foreign) upgraded their allocation for Indian equities. As a result, money also came in and pulled the Nifty up past 9000. However, ahead of the all-important Q4 earnings season there is subdued expectation from many of the Nifty companies, which are likely to report pressure on earnings growth and stretched valuations as a result.
The other problem keeping investors wary include a move in crude oil prices towards
US$60 barrel on the back of geo-political worries (lower crude prices were the key for India's improved macros). From the local currency perspective, the RBI is trying to keep the currency appreciation in check as it hurts exporters.
Post the ECB QE announcement, the euro has plunged pushing European equities to record highs, with the Dax registering over 23% upsides. In 2015 in Asia, Japan is up more than 12%, China is up 13% and Indonesia is up over 3% while India is down over 1% for 2015.
lEquity market returns of 2015 for key DMs and EMs: India equity
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Italy
Ger
man
y
Fran
ce
Japa
n
Rus
sia
Chi
na
Sou
th A
fric
a
Bra
sil
Kore
a
Mal
yasi
a
Taiw
an
Hon
g Ko
ng
Sin
gapo
re
Indo
nesi
a
US
Thai
land
Indi
a
Turk
ey
ICICIdirect Money Manager May 201520
DERIVATIVES STRATEGY
India VIX: Likely to consolidate in range of 12-16 in coming month
On expected lines, India VIX cooled off sharply post the Union Budget announcement and the trend continued in the March series as well. Despite the decline seen in broader markets, India VIX continues to head lower towards our stated target of 13.
With the markets entering the Q4 earnings season of Fy15, India VIX is likely to remain subdued and could slip further lower towards 12. Only a weaker-than-expected results from Nifty heavyweights could
push VIX towards 16 levels, which is likely to remain a key resistance. The key 50 week moving average for the fear gauge is also placed near this level.
With India VIX expected to remain in the range of 12-16, a move towards the higher band should be used to create short strangles on the Nifty as the index is also expected to consolidate while selling options would be a profitable trade in the upcoming months.
India VIX likely to consolidate in the earnings season
21
STOCK IDEAS
ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
Bharti Infratel: Safest bet in the telecom space
Company Background
Bharti Infratel Limited (BIL) was incorporated in 2006 as a subsidiary of Bharti Airtel, which is, in turn, a part of the Bharti Group. BIL plays the role of a telecom tower infrastructure service provider that deploys, owns and manages telecom towers and communication structures, for various mobile operators. In January 2008, Bharti Airtel transferred its tower assets to Bharti Infratel through a scheme of arrangement effective as of January 31, 2008. On a standalone basis, the company has about 37,196 towers as on date. BIL also has a 42% stake in Indus Towers, which is a joint venture between Bharti Airtel, Idea and Vo d a f o n e f o r p a s s i v e infrastructure sharing. On a consolidated basis, with the Indus stake, BIL has emerged as the largest telecom tower company in India with a tower portfolio of 85,892 towers and a pan-India presence. The c o m p a n y e n j o y s t h e competitive advantage of a very strong clientele with
Bhar t i A i r te l , Idea and Vodafone forming about ~70% of the total telecom market share as its anchor tenants.
Colossal by tower portfolio (~85,892 towers), reducing competition
Bharti Infratel (together with Indus) is India's largest tower player. It has 85,892 towers across 22 c i rc les on a consolidated basis, which includes 37,196 towers (at the standalone level) and 42% stake in the 1,15,942 Indus Towers. As per industry data for March 2012, there are approximately 3.7 lakh towers and 6.5 lakh co-locations in t o t a l . B h a r t i I n f r a t e l ' s standalone & Indus taken together had a market share of 37.8% in terms of installed tower base at a tower count of 1.4 lakh. Market share in terms of co-locations stood at 42.5% with 2.7 lakh co-locations. With its widespread portfolio of towers it is indispensable in the telecom infrastructure space. It posted a tower & tenancy
Investment Rationale
22ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
growth of 3% & 7% in FY12-15, which led to a 32% increase in rental revenues over the same period. Going ahead, with a 2% & 10% increase in towers & tenancy we expect rental revenues to grow at 11% CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) in FY15-17E to 8,729 crore.
Data growth to be fuelled by government's digital plans, BIL to benefit
With government of India (GoI) taking keen interest in meeting the PMO's (Prime Minister's Office) Digital India vision and developing an eco-system for high-speed data, data growth seems inevitable. The overall mobile data, which is expected to grow to 55x monthly consumpt ion by FY18E necessitates higher loading. Airtel and Idea are expected to post data volume growth of 51.1% and 41.5% CAGR in FY15E-17E to 664 and 345 billion GB, respectively. Hence, data revenues may then form a b o u t 2 3 - 2 5 % o f t o t a l r ev enues f r om 1 5 - 1 7 % currently. BIL with Airtel, Idea and Vodafone as anchor tenants, who together control about 70% revenue market
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share, is certain to benefit from increasing tenancies as the data volume increases.
Stable cash flows, strong dividend policy, optimisation of capital structure
It has an annuity led business with a remaining estimated contract life of ~6 years, which lends certainty to ~ 22,950 crore of future cash flows. The company delivered 2.8% dividend yield by declaring a dividend of 11 in FY15. We expect BIL to pay dividends to the tune of 11 and Rs. 11.5 per share in FY16E and FY17E, respectively. The management h a s b e e n c o n s t a n t l y highlighting its keen interest in re-aligning its capital structure where the debt/equity ratio is currently 0.1x by resorting to buyback, excess dividend route, etc. Such a re-alignment will be return ratios accretive.
Maintain BUY; belief in sustainable growth story; target price 450
With ballooning data growth and tremendous opportunity, going ahead, considering the kind of spectrum purchased by telcos and stable annuity based business model, we value Bharti Infratel at 450,
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STOCK IDEAS
STOCK IDEAS
23ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
based on a Sum-of-the-parts-Discounted cash flow (SOTP- DCF) based methodology. We
m a i n t a i n B U Y r e c o m - mendation on BIL.
Key Financials
Valuations Summary
Stock Data
Net sales ( crore) 10,827 11,668 12,385 13,346
EBITDA ( crore) 4,412 5,004 5,691 6,447
Net profit ( crore) 1,530 1,992 2,429 2,885
EPS ( ) 8.1 10.5 12.8 15.2
FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
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P/E (x) 48.8 37.5 30.8 25.9
Target P/E (x) 55.6 42.8 35.1 29.6
EV / EBITDA (x) 16.7 14.4 12.7 11.1
P/BV (x) 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.5
RoNW (%) 8.5 11.7 14.6 17.3
RoCE (%) 11 15.1 18.5 22.1
FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Market capitalization ( crore) 74,805.1
Total debt (FY15) ( crore) 1,713.1
Cash and investments (FY15) ( crore) 4,312.7
Enterprise value (EV) ( crore) 72,205.5
52-week High / Low ( ) 401 / 214
Equity capital ( crore) 1,893.8
Face value ( ) 10
MF holding (%) 0.9
FII holding (%) 22.5
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STOCK IDEAS
24ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
Key Risks
Rentals per sharing tenant may decline
The sharing revenue per t e n a n t p e r m o n t h h a s remained more or less flat for BIL in the past three to five years. The decline due to rising tenancy has been partially offset by higher loading. However, in the event of other smaller players in the tower space resorting to price discounts on rentals to te lecom opera tors , the company may have to reduce its rentals. This could be a downside risk to our estimates.
Technology risks
The business is exposed to technology risks. If telecom players are able to innovate and make the sites usable for both 3G and 4G coverage, the revenue from loading would be lower-than-expected. In addit ion, with the huge quan tum o f l i be ra l i sed 800/900/1800 MHz spectrum put up for auction in the past two auctions, players would shift their data plans towards these efficient bands of spectrum. This could lead to a lower uptake in loading and tenancy.
(EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization; EPS: Earnings per share; P/E: Price-to-earnings; EV: Enterprise value; P/BV: Price-to-book value; RoNW: Return on net worth; RoCE: Return on Capital Employed; MF: Mutual Funds; FII: Foreign Institutional Investors)
25ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
STOCK IDEAS
Timken India - Opportunities galore!
Company Background
Incorporated in 1987, Timken
India is the Indian subsidiary of
the US-based Timken Group,
which is a global leader in
tapered rol ler bearings.
Timken India is the fourth
largest company in the Indian
bearing market with ~8%
revenue market share. It
commands ~40% share in
tapered roller bearings (which
form ~62% of the topline) in
India. It is well diversified
across segments catering
mainly to mobile (40-45% of
revenues excluding exports)
and process industries (25% of
revenues). In the mobile
segment, Timken India caters
to OEMs (Original equipment
manufacturers) and end users
i n i n d u s t r i e s l i k e C v s
(commercial vehicles) and off
highways (20-25% of revenue)
and Railways (20-25% of
revenue). In the process
industries, they cater to heavy
i n d u s t r i e s , i n d u s t r i a l
processes, gear devices,
e n e r g y a n d i n d u s t r y
distribution. Exports (33% of
revenues) are made to
Timken's parent company
( m a i n l y t a p e r e d r o l l e r
bearings). In terms of clientele
base, the major clients of
Timken India are BHEL,
Titagarh Wagons, Tata Steel,
Spicer India, JSW Ispat Steel,
Indian Railways, Escorts Ltd,
HAL, etc. Timken India has two
facil i t ies: Jamshedpur &
Raipur.
Strong exports –boost during tough
domestic demand scenario
Timken India's strong export
revenue growth enabled it to
combat the muted domestic
business. Exports comprised
26% of FY14 revenues vs. 12%
in CY09. The company logged
~32% CAGR in FY09-14 from
78.9 crore to 237.9 crore.
Going ahead, Timken India is
Investment Rationale
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26ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
STOCK IDEAS
expected to be a key hub for
export to various customers of
Timken entities. Hence, we
expect export revenues to
g r o w a t ~ 2 4 % C A G R
(compounded annual growth
rate) in FY14-17E to 452
crore.
Huge opportunity in services &
railway segment
Backed by the know-how of
Philadelphia Gears (acquired
by the parent in 2011), Timken
India has set up a gear box
repair facility in Raipur to
servethe heavy process
industry. Currently served by
unorganised players, the
m a n a g e m e n t p e g s t h e
opportunity in the segment at
~ 2,500 crore in India wherein
it is looking to garner up to 15%
market share over the longer
term. We expect repairs and
services revenues to zoom to
137 crore in FY17E (~11% of
net sales) vs. meagre 24 crore
in Fy14. Furthermore, the
Dedicated Freight Corridor
(DFC) would also provide an
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incremental bearing market
opportunity of ~ 500 crore led
by incremental ordering of
new wagons.
Growth prospects justify the
premium valuation
Timken is trading at premium
valuations of 30.7x FY17E
earnings, given its superior
revenues growth led by
exports, the huge opportunity
and growth prospects in the
railways segment and repairs
business which it caters to.
Given the leadership in the
tapered bearings led by strong
parentage, robust balance
sheet and strong earning
CAGR (~46% over FY14-17E),
we ascribe a 0.8x PEG
(implying a P/E of 36.5x) with a
target price of 740/share. We
initiate coverage on a stock
with a BUY rating.
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27ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
STOCK IDEAS
Key Financials
Valuations Summary
Stock Data
Net sales ( crore) 720.1 918.1 1,058.7 1,236.4
EBITDA ( crore) 71.6 129.1 163.9 204.4
Net profit ( crore) 44.8 82.6 106.4 137.9
EPS ( ) 6.6 12.1 15.6 20.3
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
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P/E (x) 94.5 51.2 39.8 30.7
Target P/E (x) 112.5 60.9 47.3 36.5
EV / EBITDA (x) 58.9 32.6 25.6 20.9
P/BV (x) 11.1 9.9 8.6 7.2
RoNW (%) 11.7 19.4 21.6 23.4
RoCE (%) 14.5 25.8 29.1 27.2
FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Market capitalization ( crore) 4,228.8
Total debt (FY15E) ( crore) 3.2
Cash and investments (FY15E) ( crore) 18.9
Enterprise value ( crore) 4,213.2
52-week High / Low ( ) 653 / 203
Equity capital ( crore) 68
Face value ( ) 10
MF Holding (%) 9.9
FII Holding (%) 0.9
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28ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
STOCK IDEAS
Key Risks
Domestic demand pick-up delay may impact earnings assumptions
Timken sells two-thirds of its products domestically. We highlight that the overall slowdown in the economy affecting the industrial as wellas CV segment, has impac ted the domest i c business of Timken (decline of
~5% in FY14). A sustained slowdown in CV segment or industries may lead to an overall slowdown in sales growth and our earnings estimate. Hence, we have run asensitivity analysis to find outthe impact of higher-t h a n e x p e c t e d o r l o w e r d o m e s t i c d e m a n d onFY17E EPS assumptions.
(EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization; EPS: Earnings per share; P/E: Price-to-earnings; EV: Enterprise value; P/BV: Price-to-book value; RoNW: Return on net worth; RoCE: Return on Capital Employed; MF: Mutual Funds; FII: Foreign Institutional Investors)
Domestic Topline Growth11.0% 13.0% 15.0% 17.0% 19.0%
FY17E EPS 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.1
Raw material cost rise could impact our earnings estimates
A sharp rise in key raw material like steel could also pose a risk to our earnings estimates impacting the margins. Hence, we have run a sensitivity analysis to find out the
impact of a change in RM (raw material) to sales on our FY17E earnings assumptions. We highlight that every 100 basis points (bps) change in RM to sales would impact our earnings by ~7%.
31.0% 32.0% 33.0% 34.0% 35.0%FY16E EPS 17.8 16.7 15.6 14.6 13.5FY17E EPS 22.8 21.6 20.3 19.0 17.7
RM to Sales
29ICICIdirect Money Manager
FLAVOUR OF THE MONTH
Lower oil prices to keep India's growth story intact
May 2015
Crude oil prices play a very important role in the Indian economy as it imports ~75% of its crude oil requirements. Over the past 4-5 years, higher crude oil prices of ~ USD 100 per barrel led to negative impact on the India's macro economic variables such as current account deficit (CAD), fiscal deficit, exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, etc. thereby weakening the Indian economy. The sharp crude oil price correction in the last year had been a boon for India's economy. However, the increase in the crude oil prices from the recent lows has been worrisome for the investors. We believe that the era of higher crude oil prices is over, and expect the crude oil prices to stabilise at lower levels in the medium term, which would now be the new normal. Hence, we believe oil prices will not be spoilsport in India's growth story. We have outlined the following reasons to our belief of lower crude oil prices.
US oil output to continue to remain strongThe recent boom in the unconventional shale oil production has led to an unprecedented rise in the supply of oil in the US markets, which is also the largest importer of conventional oil globally. Currently, shale contributes more than 30% of the US oil & gas domestic
production. In spite of the sharp decline in crude oil prices, US domestic oil production continues to remain strong. The US alone has added 4 million extra barrels of crude oil per day to the global market since 2008 and is expected to add another 0.7 million barrels per day in the next few years.
US indigenous oil production
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Dec-1
0
Ju
n-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ju
n-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ju
n-1
3
Dec-1
3
Ju
n-1
4
Dec-1
4
000' b
arr
els
per
day
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Securities
30ICICIdirect Money Manager
FLAVOUR OF THE MONTH
May 2015
US oil import
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Dec-
10
Ju
n-1
1
Dec-
11
Ju
n-1
2
Dec-
12
Ju
n-1
3
Dec-
13
Ju
n-1
4
Dec-
14
000' b
arr
els
per
day
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Securities
Even as US is reducing its dependence on imported crude oil, we see that its strategic reserves have been continuously building up, which is currently 458 million barrels, comparable to levels last seen in 1982. The US storage capacity is 63% full,
compared to 48% a year ago as per the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It is expected that at the current pace of oil production, the strategic oil reserves would fill up completely by the end of 2015, which may limit the upside to crude oil prices.
US Oil Inventory
320
370
420
470
Jan
Feb
Apr
May
Jun
e
Au
g
Sep Oct
De
c
Month
MM
bbls
2011 2012 2014 2015 5 Years Average
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Securities
31ICICIdirect Money Manager
FLAVOUR OF THE MONTH
May 2015
China slowdown to impact incremental oil demandChina has been one of the major drivers of the crude oil super-cycle witnessed in the last decade. China's GDP growth rate had averaged ~9% since the beginning of 2000 led by investment spending leading to a surge in global oil demand. However, China's GDP growth rate has slowed down from 9.8% in CY10 to 7.4% last year, the lowest in 24 years. China's slow growth rate is also evident from the lower industrial production growth rate, which has declined from 10.4% in September 2012 to 6.8% in February 2015. Given
the scale of China's appetite for crude oil, small shifts in China's domestic demand-supply b a l a n c e h a v e m a j o r implications for global crude oil markets. Over the last few years, China's oil consumption growth has been slowing down from 12.2% in 2010 to 3.8% in 2013. It was reflected last year as well, where consumption remained flat year-on-year (YoY). As China contributes majorly to global oil demand growth (~40% average over the last four years), the slowdown in China will continue to have a negative impact on global crude oil prices.
Slowdown in China's GDP growth rate
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Mar
-10
Jun
-10
Sep-
10
De
c-10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
Sep-
11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12
Sep-
12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec-
13
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
De
c-14
(%)
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Securities
32ICICIdirect Money Manager
FLAVOUR OF THE MONTH
May 2015
China's Industrial production has been on a downward slide
7
8
9
10Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar-
14
Ap
r-14
May-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
Dec-
14
(%)
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Securities
10.210.7 11.1 11.3
6.35.0
10.8
3.2
0
3
6
9
12
15
2010 2011 2012 2013
(%)
China's Demand as a percentage of Global Demand
China Oil Consumption Growth
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Securities
33ICICIdirect Money Manager
FLAVOUR OF THE MONTH
May 2015
21.9
51.760.1
30.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013
(%)
China's contribution to incremental world oil consumption
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Securities
Also, China's strategic oil reserves are estimated at ~40 days now. It increases to ~50 days when commerc ia l reserves are factored in. Lured by low crude prices, China has been aggressively adding to its strategic oil reserves for the past eight months, peaking in December when its purchases hit a record 7.2 million barrels per day. Now that available storage tanks have nearly topped off, China's incremental oil demand for its storage facilities is likely to decline. This may weigh on crude oil prices.
Iran deal leading to removal of sanctions may increase global oil supply
Iranian oil exports in recent years have been essentially capped by Western sanctions aimed at pressuring Tehran over its nuclear ambitions. Negotiations toward a possible US nuclear deal with Tehran could allow more Iranian oil exports. The deal could affect the global oil market that is already facing oversupply. While the timing of such a move would be some months away, the easing of sanctions could eventually translate into an additional 1 million barrels per day in Iranian crude heading into the global markets that are currently facing a glut. The country produced 2.8 million barrels oil
34ICICIdirect Money Manager
FLAVOUR OF THE MONTH
May 2015
per day during February 2015, compared with 3.6 million barrels per day at the end of 2011 while currently it exports
just 1.3 million barrels per day compared to 2.5 million barrels per day in mid-2012 when the sanctions were imposed.
Iran oil production
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
Ma
r-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Se
p-1
4
00
0'
Ba
rre
ls/D
ay
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Securities
Also, if the situation stabilises
in Libya, more supply could be
added to the global oil markets
as the current production of
Libya is still three times less
than its capacity of about ~1.7
million barrels per day, which
shows the long term potential
for the Libya oil supply.
Russia has been at the centre
of world attraction lately after
Russia's desperate measures to
revive its economy will lead to
higher oil supply
the sanctions imposed by the
US, European Union and other
countries due to the Ukrainian
cr is is . Russ ia is h ighly
dependent on oil & gas
production with oil revenues
making up 45% of the
government Budget. The
sharp fall in prices has been
ruinous. It is estimated that
Russia's GDP would shrink by
at least 4.5% in 2015 if oil
remains below $60 per barrel.
The plunging price of oil has
35ICICIdirect Money Manager
FLAVOUR OF THE MONTH
May 2015
also caused the Ruble's value
to collapse, leading to panic in
the Russian economy. This
could lead to desperate
measures by Russia to support
its economy.
Russia has also accelerated the
re-orientation of its exports to
Asia as its diplomatic relations
with Europe continues to
deter iora te . Moscow is
currently prioritising relations
with China, South Korea and
Japan and the growth potential
of these economies is several
times higher than that of
Western Europe, ensuring a
long-term growth market for
Russian oi l . Russia has
boosted its oil supplies to
China, Japan and South Korea
by 10 million tonnes in 2014,
increasing the proportion of oil
exports to Asia from 7.2% to
8.7%. In the next five years, the
flow of Russian oil to China
could increase by 15-20 million
tonnes. Rising shipments from
Russia, which ranks with Saudi
Arabia and the US as the
world's biggest oil producers,
would put more pressure on
crude, which has already
declined ~50% since last year.
Restarting of Japan's nuclear
reactor to ease its fossil fuel
demandJapan has relied heavily on
fossil fuels following the
meltdown at Fukushima
Dai ichi and subsequent
shutdown of the country's
nuclear fleet, as it was once the
world's largest producers of
nuclear-generated electricity.
In 2013, when almost all of
Japan's nuclear fleets were
shut down, more than 86% of
Japan's generation mix was
composed of fossil fuels.
T h e c u r r e n t J a p a n e s e
government believes the use
of nuclear energy is necessary
to help reduce current energy
supply strains and alleviate
high electricity prices. Japan's
new energy policy, framed in
2014, emphasizes energy
security, economic efficiency
and greenhouse gas emissions
reduction. The government is
increasingly pushing for a
restart on the grounds that
continuing to import oil, coal
and natural gas to keep the
economy ticking over is
prohibitively expensive, as
well as increasing the nation's
36ICICIdirect Money Manager
FLAVOUR OF THE MONTH
May 2015
carbon dioxide output.
Japan's nuclear reactors may
restart in May 2015, as Kyushu
Electric's Sendai Units 1 and 2
in south-western Japan
received approval f rom
Japan's Nuclear Regulatory
Agency (NRA) and local
authorities in November 2014.
The NRA has also approved
Kansai Electric's Takahama
Units 3 and 4 at the end of 2014
although these units are still
awaiting authorisation from
the local government. The
resumption of some of the
nuclear power units may lower
demand for fossil fuels, which
may have some impact on the
global markets.
Source: EIA, ICICI Securities
Lower crude oil prices is the new
normalEven though crude oil prices
have declined sharply over last
year, we believe crude prices
will stabilise at lower levels in
the medium term as global
crude oil supply is already in
surplus and there is no major
demand growth. Increased oil
production in the US due to
shale revolution and possibility
of higher oil supply from Russia
and Iran will lead to oversupply
of crude oil in the global
markets . Lower demand
growth due to the slowdown in
China, Europe and other major
37ICICIdirect Money Manager
FLAVOUR OF THE MONTH
May 2015
e c o n o m i e s a l o n g w i t h
resumption of Japanese
nuclear power plants and
emergence of a l ternate
sources of energy will hamper
the global demand for crude
o i l . S u b s e q u e n t l y, t h e
mismatch in g loba l o i l
demand-supply scenario is
expec ted to l ead to a
stabilisation of crude oil prices
at lower levels.
As India has high dependence
on crude oil imports to meet its
demand for natural resources,
lower crude oil prices will be a
boon for India. In FY14, India
imported ~US$ 165 billion
worth of crude oil out of total
imports of US$ 450 billion,
forming 36.6% of total imports.
The price decline in crude oil in
FY15 had a positive impact on
India's oil import bill, which
declined by 16% YoY to ~US$
138 billion leading to positive
effect on India's trade and
current account deficit (CAD).
Moreover, oil imports as a
percentage of GDP which will
Lower oil prices to keep India's
growth story intact
decline from 8.7% of GDP in
FY14 to 5.1% of GDP in FY16E
after the reduced global crude
prices. It also led to the decline
in the fiscal deficit levels in
India from 4.4% in FY14
to4.1% in FY15. The fiscal
deficit situation is further
expected to improve with the
lowering of government
subsidy payment in future
years. The decline in oil prices
had also helped in containing
inflation levels from 9.5% in
FY14 to 6.4% in FY15 and we
expect it at 5-6.5% in FY16E as
well. Lower inflation in future
in-turn facilitates reducing in
interest rates in FY16E and will
accelerate India's economic
growth. To conclude, we
believe that lower crude oil
price is here to stay and it won't
be spoilsport in India growth
story.
Please send your feedback to [email protected]
38ICICIdirect Money Manager
Use current volatility to build strong equity portfolio
May 2015
EXPERT SPEAK
At the start of 2015, India was
in a sweet spot, after posting
30% returns for 2014, most of
the fund allocators were
overweight on India. However
in the recent past, post the
keenly anticipated events of
Union Budget and Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) rate cut,
there has been a profit booking
trend. Bulk of the selling has
come from foreign institutional
investors (FIIs) who shifted
some funds out of India into
other emerging markets (Ems).
On a year-to-date (YTD) basis
as well, India ranks among the
weakest performers globally,
as global investors booked
profits as they perceived the
Indian equity markets are over-
heated from the short-term
perspective and the earnings
per share (EPS) growth was
missing in Q3FY15 and Q4
FY15 results till date.
Weakness was also seen in
Debt markets, wherein the 10-
year G-Sec (Government
Security) yield shot up close to
8% in the recent past and is
close to 20 basis points (bps)
higher for 2015. The resultant
weakness has also started to
reflect in depreciating Indian
Rupee (INR), which has hit the
lowest level since September.
INR could further weaken if the
Head –Research,ICICIdirect
Pankaj Pandey
Nifty performance: Weakest amongst global peers
-10%-5%0%
5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
US UK
Germ
any
Japa
n
Indi
a
Indo
nesi
a
Philip
ines
Bra
zil
Sout
hA
fric
a
Tur
key
Thai
land
T-30 YTD TTM
39ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
EXPERT SPEAK
pace/extent of FII outflow
increases. As visible in the
chart below, since 2014 the INR
has been one of the strongest
p e r f o r m i n g c u r r e n c i e s ,
wherein the key currencies
have depreciated by 10%, INR
has deprecated only little over
a percent.
Indian Rupee performance amongst global peers
INR Performance since 2014
-20%-10%
0%10%
20%30%
40%50%
60%
Arg
entin
e Pe
so
Thai
Bah
t
Phi
lippi
nes
Peso
Indo
nesi
a R
upia
h
Chi
nese
Yua
n
S. K
orea
n W
on
Taiw
anes
e D
olla
r
Turk
ish
Lira
Mal
aysi
an R
ingg
it
S. A
fric
an R
and
Bra
zilia
n R
eal
Mex
ican
Pes
o
Rus
sian
Rub
le
Brit
ish
Poun
d
Aus
tral
ian
Dol
lar
Japa
nese
Yen
Can
adia
n D
olla
r
Euro
Sw
iss
Fran
c
Indi
an R
upeeA
ppre
ciat
ion
/ D
epric
iatio
n
The market rally has been marked with several interim phases of consolidation. We believe, such phases of consolidation lend credence and support to the long-term rally, signifying investor confidence, who return to buying after profit booking. The alternating phases of consolidation and uptrend would continue in the future. The overall sentiment remains positive, led by several positive steps by the new government like allowing foreign direct investment (FDI) in several sectors, railway fare hike, online environment &
forest c learances. After presenting a pragmatic and r e f o r m i s t b u d g e t a n d successfully addressing the concerns in the coal mining sector. We have already witnessed a bottoming out of the economic growth cycle with GDP (gross domestic product) growth averaging 7.43% in 9MFY15, against 6.65% in FY14. A reduction in crude and other commodity pr ices has a ided lower inflation, which has already prompted a 50 bps rate cut and may lead to further cuts.
However, an improvement in corporate earnings will follow
40ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
EXPERT SPEAK
with a lag. Sensex earnings are expected to grow at lower rate of 4.4% in FY15. Nevertheless, growth is expected to rebound t o ~ 1 7 . 6 % ( C AG R i . e . Compounded annual growth rate) in next two years. Markets have been running ahead on expectations of improving business environment amid quick policy actions. Even though the government has initiated several confidence building measures and taken key decisions, economic recovery will happen only at a gradual pace. On domestic front El-Nino effect raises the possibi l i ty of a weaker monsoon. In addition, steep depreciation in INR, rise in G-sec yields, lower corporate earnings growth are likely to fuel investor apprehension. At the global level, uncertainties like Fed rate hike in June, Greece Debt stand-off, crude price recovery and bond market selloff are likely to keep equity markets nervous. While investors have booked some profits in the last month or so, we believe, markets would continue on the upwards trajectory after taking a
breather. From the valuations stand point as well Sensex is currently trading at 14 times FY17E earnings, suggesting scope for the expansion.
We are positive on Auto and Cement on back of robust demand outlook and Capital Goods on account of balance sheet improvement and margin expansion. Lower crude prices and positive policy triggers also makes the Oil & Gas sector attractive. In addition, we are positive on Banks on expectations of interest rates cuts, reviving credit growth and fading concerns around asset quality deterioration.
To sum it up, Indian equities from a medium to long term perspective is still a compelling buy as India is likely clock the higher GDP growth of close to 7-8% in FY16 (making India one of the fastest growing economies among all the major global markets). With the RBI rate cut effect likely to get materialized by H2FY16 we believe the current volatility should be used to build strong equity portfolio.
The views expressed in the interview are personal views of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of ICICI Securities.
41ICICIdirect Money Manager
ASK OUR PLANNER
Options available at maturity of a PPF account
May 2015
Q:
A:
I have a Public Provident Fund
(PPF) account which will be
maturing by the end of this financial
year (March, 2016). I know that this
account can be extended beyond
the maturity. But I want to know for
how long it can be extended. Is it
mandatory to make contributions
every year in the account during the
extended period? Can I withdraw
the amount any time during the
extended period?-Deepak Kumar
Once your PPF account
matures, you can do either of
the following three:
1)You can withdraw the
maturity amount and close the
account. The maturity amount
you withdraw is exempt from
tax.
2)You can extend your account
in blocks of 5 years and
continue making contribution
into the same. There is no limit
to the number of blocks your
account can be extended. In
such a case, you can make
withdrawals from the account
only upto 60% of the account
balance that was available at
the beginning of the extended
period.
3)You can extend your account
without making any further
contributions, and continue to
earn interest on the available
balance every year. In this case,
any amount can be withdrawn
from your account once a year.
I have a Birla Sunlife Freedom
policy 58 (unit linked pension plan) th
which I took on 28 July 2009 and
surrendered in 2014. I have not
claimed any deductions under
Section 80 for the premium paid on
this policy.
Upon surrender, will the surrender
value be included as taxable
income or can I compute capital
gains because I did not claim any
deduction under Section 80?
- R Seshadri
Irrespective of whether you
have claimed tax benefit on
premium payment under
Section 80C or not, the
surrender value of a pension
policy will be added to your
income and taxed as per the
income slab. Claiming tax
Q:
A:
42ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
ASK OUR PLANNER
benefit under Section 80C for
premium payment has no
relevance with taxation of
surrender value of the policy.
I have read that in case you
possess more than one house, one
house can be declared as self
occupied while computing income
tax. My question is whether I can
declare a house self occupied even
if both houses are actually let out?
- Suresh John David
This rule will apply if you
have two house properties
which are either vacant or self-
occupied or occupied by
parents. In such a case, you
can declare any one of the two
house properties as self-
occup ied , as pe r your
discretion. The other property
will be “Deemed to be let out”.
If both the properties are
actually let out, you cannot
declare either of them as self-
occupied.
I am 38.5 years old and can
invest Rs. 20,000 per month. I want
to invest for my retirement, child
education and marriage and a
home. Till date my savings are just
2 or 3 lakhs. Please suggest me
Q:
A:
Q:
what can I do.
-Deepak
It's better late than never to
start planning for your goals.
Now that you have listed your
goals, put a time frame to each
g o a l a l o n g w i t h t h e
approximate amount required
for each goal. Make a financial
plan for yourself through a
financial planner. This will help
you in understanding your
projected future cash-flow and
to what extent your goals can
be achieved and how you need
to go about to achieve them.
ICICIdirect also offers Financial
Planning Services. You may
write to us at
further details.
Kindly advise me for contribution
to NPS scheme. I am 56 year male
retiring after 4 years. How to create
retirement corpus?
-Rangnath Kamble
In National Pension System
(NPS), the account will mature
at your age of 60 years and
ideal ly can be used to
accumulate retirement corpus
if you have a longer time to
A:
Q:
A:
43ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
ASK OUR PLANNER
retire, say more than 10 years.
In your case, if you open an
NPS account now at your age
of 56 years, you will have only
4 years left to contribute. You
may not be able to accumulate
a big corpus through this and
cannot rely only upon this for
y o u r p o s t - r e t i r e m e n t
expenses. Further, with only 4
years left, you may not get a
higher return even if you
choose Equity (E) class of NPS,
as equity markets are generally
volatile in short term. On the
other hand, if you choose debt
classes of NPS (corporate
bonds (C) and government
securities (G)), the returns may
not be so volatile but are
generally lower. Also, the
maturity proceeds of NPS, as
per current law, are taxable,
resulting in lower net return.
Considering all this, it may not
be prudent to invest in NPS
with such a short investment
horizon (4 years).
Q:
A:
In the recent budget, service tax
has been increased from 12.36% to
14%. However, I still notice that at
all places, people continue to
charge only 12.36%. Is there any
date from which this change is
applicable?
-Kavita Rai
The budget has proposed a
change in service tax from
12.36% to 14% through the
Finance Bill, 2015. The Bill has
been passed in Lok Sabha last
month. The Bill has to be
passed in Rajya Sabha and
then assented by the President
of India, post which the
Finance Bill will become
Finance Act.
After it becomes an Act, the
Government will issue a
notification in which a specific
date will be mentioned from
which this change will be
applicable. The service tax
charged by relevant service
providers will have to be
changed from that date.
Do you also have similar queries to ask our experts? Write to us at: [email protected].
MUTUAL FUND ANALYSIS
44ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
Investing in short-term credit opportunities funds
Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan
Fund Objective:To generate regular income
through investments in debt &
money market instruments in
order to make regular dividend
payments to unit holders &
secondary objective is growth
of capital.
Key Information:
Fund Manager: Maneesh Dangi
Performance:
Maneesh Dangi has over 10 years of experience in Finance & Research. Prior to joining B i r l a S u n L i f e A s s e t M a n a g e m e n t C o m p a n y (BSLAMC) he worked with Pioneer Investcorp as a head of f ixed-income investment consultancy and merchant banking division.
The fund has delivered 12% return in FY15, which is the best for the period of its existence. The fund goes real low on credit and, therefore, has the highest yield to maturity (YTM), which earns alpha. An investment of 10,000 at the inception of the fund (March 2009) would have grown to 17,046 earning a compounded annual return (CAR) of 9.2% since inception.
`
`Product Label:
This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
•
•
•
income with capital growth over medium to long term
investments in debt and money market instruments
Medium risk
NAV as on April 30, 2015 ( ) 17.2
Inception Date March 25, 2009
Fund Manager Maneesh Dangi
Minimum Investment (`)
(Lumpsum) 5000
Expense Ratio (%) 1.27
Last declared YTM % 10.96
Exit Load 2.00% on or before 365D,
1.00% after 365D but on or
before 730D,Nil after 730D
Benchmark CRISIL AA Short Term Bond Index
`
Performance vs. Benchmark
Fund Benchmark
5.3
11.5
10.9
9.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
6 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Retu
rn%
45ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
MUTUAL FUND ANALYSIS
Yearly Returns
Portfolio:The fund manager goes real low on the credit front with ~61% of the portfolio in less than or equivalent to AA-rated debt instruments. The credit strategy helps the fund earn h i g h e r Y T M o f ~ 1 1 % . However, comparatively the default risk increases. The fund manager aims to optimise r e t u r n s b y i d e n t i f y i n g mispriced credit opportunities in medium term securities in
11.9
10.4
11.2
10.6
9.8 1
1.0
14.5
7
- 0.9
6
11.2
5
-2.00.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.0
31-Mar-14 To 31-Mar-15 31-Mar-13 To 31-Mar-14 31-Mar-12 To 31-Mar-13
Retu
rn%
Fund Benchmark Crisil Ten year Gilt Index
the market and then selectively investing in them.
We believe the fund is a perfect investment alternative in the current period. The portfolio is currently running a higher YTM, which the investor needs to lock-in at the current stage. Going forward, the interest rate trajectory is down and YTM is for sure gone be lower. The credit risk from here on is going to come down as with better business environment corporate earnings growth gains traction zeroing the default risk. It is the best time to play the credit risk to earn higher return.
Our View:
Asset Allocation %
Credit quality %
Apr-15 Mar-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14
CDs 2.49 -- -- 4.86 4.93 -- -- -- 2.24 4.52 3.08 -- -- 5.67
CPs 2.48 7.39 8.78 8.88 7.63 -- 0.86 -- 1.80 -- -- -- 0.84 3.65
Corp Bond 81.91 89.08 83.81 80.56 83.88 86.10 89.45 93.55 89.45 92.08 91.57 97.04 97.02 86.77
Gsec -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- –
Others 13.12 3.53 7.42 5.70 3.56 13.90 9.70 6.45 6.51 3.40 5.35 2.96 2.14 3.91
A & Eqiv 27.87 32.92 33.46 34.13 34.67 33.96 25.69 26.29 26.58 26.99 28.87 29.32 31.17 27.29
AA & Equiv 34.12 36.26 30.17 25.98 26.35 32.24 37.24 38.07 31.60 35.69 31.49 37.07 38.66 37.63
AAA & Equiv 24.89 27.29 28.96 34.19 35.42 19.90 27.37 29.20 35.31 33.91 34.29 30.65 28.04 31.17
Cash & Equivalent 11.86 2.22 7.42 1.89 1.90 13.90 9.70 6.45 6.51 3.40 5.35 2.96 2.14 2.97
SOV -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- –
Others -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- –
46ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
MUTUAL FUND ANALYSIS
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
(Blue) Investors understand that
their principal will be at low risk
(Yellow) Investors understand that
their principal will be at meduim risk
(Brown) Investors understand
that their principal will be at high
risk
Data as on May 4, 2015; Portfolio details as on April 30, 2015Source: ACE MF, ICICIdirect Research
Top 10 Holdings Asset Type %
Whats In %
Net Current Asset Cash & Cash Equivalents 11.33
RKN Retail Pvt Ltd. 7% (11-Mar-18) Corporate Debt 9.29
DLF Ltd. 12.5% (30-Apr-18) Corporate Debt 6.45
RHC Holding Pvt Ltd. SR-B 11.00% (12-Nov-19) Corporate Debt 6.41
Adani Power Ltd. (30-Apr-18) Corporate Debt 6.26
Relationship Properties Pvt Ltd.10.60% (29-Sep-18) Corporate Debt 5.74
IL&FS Education & Technology Services Ltd.SR-C 11.00% (10-Apr-20) Corporate Debt 5.03
IL&FS Education & Technology Services Ltd.SR-B 10.52% (10-Oct-17) Corporate Debt 3.9
HC Holding Pvt Ltd. SR-A 11.00% (12-Nov-19) Corporate Debt 3.85
Adani Power Ltd. 10.95% (30-Apr-18) Corporate Debt 3.77
Coffee Day Enterprises Pvt Ltd. 0.9
ING Vysya Bank Ltd. (15-Jun-15) 2.5
Small Industries DevelopmentBank of India -87D (15-Jun-15) 2.5
%Whats OutRHC Holding Pvt Ltd. 13.75% (30-Mar-17) 0.2
Sterlite Technologies Ltd. 11.45% (05-May-16) 0.7
Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd.-364D (29-Dec-15) 7.4
Performance of all the schemes managed by the fund manager
Fund Name31- -14Mar
31-Mar-15
31-Mar-13
31-Mar-14
31- -12Mar
31- -13MarValue of standard investment of
10000 since inception`
Birla SL Dynamic Bond Fund-Ret(G) 15.21 6.94 10.45
Crisil Short Term Bond Fund Index 10.33 8.79 9.10
Birla SL Medium Term Fund(G) 17046 11.89 10.44 11.22
CRISIL AA Short Term Bond Index 17594 10.55 9.81 11.00
CRISIL Ten year Gilt Index 13791 14.57 -0.96 11.25
47ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
MUTUAL FUND ANALYSIS
Franklin India Short Term Income Plan
Fund Objective:
The objective of the scheme is to provide investors stable returns by investing in fixed income securities.
Key Information:
Product Label:
This product is suitable for investors seeking*:
• Regular income for medium term
• A fund that invests in short term corporate bonds including PTCs
• Low risk
NAV as on April 30, 2015 ( ) 2889.8
Inception Date February 4,2002
Fund Manager Santosh Kamath
Minimum Investment (`)
(Lumpsum) 5000
Expense Ratio (%) 1.54
Last declared YTM % 10.53
Exit Load 0.50% on or before 1Y
Benchmark Crisil Short Term Bond Fund Index
`
Fund Managers: Santosh Kamath
and Kunal Agrawal
Santosh Kamath is Managing
Director (MD) and Chief
Investment Officer (CIO) at
Franklin Templeton, Fixed
Income in India. He joined
F r a n k l i n T e m p l e t o n
Investments in 2006 and has
over 20 years of investment
and research experience. Mr.
Kamath earned his MBA from
XLRI, Jamshedpur in 1993 and
his Bachelor of Engineering
degree in electronics and
telecom from REC, Bhopal.
is the co-head
credits, with the fixed income
team of Franklin Templeton
Fixed Income in Mumbai, India.
He joined Franklin Templeton
in 2011 and has over five years
of exper ience in credi t
analysis. Mr. Agrawal holds a
postgraduate degree in
management from Indian
Institute of Management (IIM)
in Calcutta and a bachelor of
technology degree from Indian
Institute of Technology (IIT) in
Delhi.
As stated in the objective to
earn stable returns, the fund
h a s i n l i n e d e l i v e r e d
compounded annual ised
return (CAR) of 9.2% in the last
five years. An investment of
10,000 in the scheme at its
inception (February 2002)
would have grown to 28,738
earning a CAR of 8.35%.
Kunal Agrawal
Performance:
`
`
48ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
MUTUAL FUND ANALYSIS
Portfolio:The fund has investment in debt instruments with shorter maturity periods focusing at the shorter end of the yield curve. The average maturity of the portfolio of the scheme is likely to be between 4 months and 12 months while the m a t u r i t y o f i n d i v i d u a l
securities in the scheme is likely to be less than 3 years. The fund manager invests primarily in corporate bonds with a focus on higher accrual income. Exposure to less than and equivalent to AA securities is ~71% which is on the higher side and hence the higher yield of 10.53%.
We are positive on the fund especially because it is from t h e F r a n k l i n A s s e t management stable. With a veteran fixed income fund manager having a strong credit team, this fund becomes an obvious choice for playing the credit strategy. The fund is a pure portfolio fund for any debt investment.
Our View:
Asset Allocation %
Credit quality %
Performance vs. Benchmark
Fund Benchmark
5.1
11.3
10.4
9.2
4.7
10.1
9.3
8.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
6 Month 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Retu
rn%
Yearly Returns
11.9
9.5 10.4
10.3
8.8 9.1
14.6
-1.0
11.3
-2.00.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.0
31-Mar-14 To 31-Mar-15 31-Mar-13 To 31-Mar-14 31-Mar-12 To 31-Mar-13
Retu
rn%
Fund Crisil Short term index Crisil Ten year gilt index
Apr-15 Mar-15 Feb-15 Jan-15 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14
CDs 1.85 1.83 1.40 -- -- -- 1.10 -- 0.10 8.72 12.19 18.66 13.71 16.80
CPs 1.48 1.29 -- -- 0.57 3.06 2.66 2.45 -- 1.55 1.02 2.32 2.71 2.02
Corp Bond 93.80 95.98 96.93 95.81 98.07 95.28 93.56 93.28 92.49 77.61 76.68 73.65 76.96 78.26
Gsec -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- –
Others 2.86 0.89 1.66 4.19 1.36 1.67 2.68 4.27 7.40 12.12 10.11 5.37 6.62 2.91
A & Eqiv 25.32 24.24 23.74 26.49 30.69 32.57 35.51 36.54 22.17 24.72 24.40 22.57 24.18 20.37
AA & Equiv 44.06 46.20 48.24 48.49 47.66 45.22 43.98 47.84 53.99 43.80 43.40 48.96 49.39 55.49
AAA & Equiv 24.62 25.49 23.88 18.38 17.84 18.11 17.86 11.42 12.67 19.49 22.25 23.30 20.06 21.54
Cash & Equivalent 2.85 0.87 1.65 4.17 1.34 1.64 2.65 2.80 6.20 2.50 2.25 1.95 6.31 2.54
SOV -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1.10 9.49 7.70 3.22 0.05 0.06
Others -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- –
Performance of all the schemes managed by the fund manager
Fund Name31-Mar-14
31-Mar-15
31-Mar-13
31-Mar-14
31- -12Mar
31- -13MarValue of standard investment of
10000 since inception`
Franklin India IBA-A(G) 13.48 8.13 11.06
Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 14.59 4.34 9.27
Franklin India Income Opportunities Fund(G) 11.90 8.85 10.53
Crisil Short Term Bond Fund Index 10.33 8.79 9.10
Franklin India Corporate Bond Opportunities Fund(G) 11.89 8.83 11.12
Crisil Short Term Bond Fund Index 10.33 8.79 9.10
Franklin India Low Duration Fund(MD) 7.62 7.89 8.61
Crisil Short Term Bond Fund Index 10.33 8.79 9.10
Franklin IndiaST Income Plan(G) 28738 11.87 9.54 10.39
Crisil Short Term Bond Fund Index NA 10.33 8.79 9.10
Crisil Ten Year Gilt Index 20987 14.57 -0.96 11.25
49ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
MUTUAL FUND ANALYSIS
Top 10 Holdings Asset Type %
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
(Blue) Investors understand that
their principal will be at low risk
(Yellow) Investors understand that
their principal will be at meduim risk
(Brown) Investors understand
that their principal will be at high
risk
Data as on May 4, 2015; Portfolio details as on April 30, 2015Source: ACE MF, ICICIdirect Research
Shriram Transport Finance Company Ltd. Corporate Debt 8.91
Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd. Corporate Debt 7.74
Adani Enterprises Ltd. Corporate Debt 5.48
HPCL-Mittal Pipelines Ltd. Corporate Debt 4.67
JSW Steel Ltd. Corporate Debt 4.66
JSW Energy Ltd. Corporate Debt 4.64
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. Corporate Debt 4.34
Sprit Textiles Pvt Ltd. Corporate Debt 3.8
Reliance Project Ventures And Management Pvt Ltd. Corporate Debt 3.79
Dolvi Minerals And Metals Ltd. Corporate Debt 3.23
Whats In % %Whats OutHousing Development FinanceCorporation Ltd. 0
Essel Propack Ltd. 0.2
JSW Steel Ltd. 4.7
Call Money 0.9
Tata Bluescope Steel Ltd. 10.25%(27-Sep-15) 0.1
Tata Power Company Ltd. 9.15%(17-Sep-16) 0
50ICICIdirect Money Manager
MUTUAL FUND TOP PICKS
Wth over thousand of mutual fund schemes available in the market, selecting the right ones may become too complex. To make it easy for you, we present our research team’s top recommendations, across equity and debt categories
Mutual Fund Top Picks
Equity
Category Top Picks
Largecaps Axis Equity FundBirla Sunlife Frontline equity FundICICI Pru Focussed Bluechip Equity FundUTI Opportunities Fund
Midcaps HDFC Midcap Opportunities FundICICI Prudential Value Discovery FundFranklin India Smaller Companies FundSBI Magnum Global Fund
Diversified Franklin India Prima PlusICICI Prudential Dynamic PlanReliance Equity Opportunities
ELSS Axis Long Term EquityICICI Prudential Tax PlanFranklin India Tax shield
Sector - Banking ICICI Prudential Banking Reliance BankingUTI Banking
May 2015
51ICICIdirect Money Manager
MUTUAL FUND TOP PICKS
May 2015
Short Term Birla Sunlife Short Term FundHDFC Short Term Opportunities FundICICI Pru Short Term Plan
Credit Opportunities Fund
Birla Sunlife Medium Term PlanFranklin India Short term PlanICICI Prudential Regular Savings
Income Funds ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond FundBirla Sun Life Income Plus - Regular Plan IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund
Gilts Funds ICICI Pru Gilt Inv. PF PlanBirla Sunlife Gilt Plus
MIP(Aggressive)
Birla Sunlife Savings 5ICICI Prudential MIP 25DSP Blackrock MIP
Debt
Category Top Picks
Liquid Funds HDFC Cash Mgmnt Saving Plan ICIC Pru Liquid PlanReliance Liquid Treasury Plan
Ultra Short Term Birla Sunlife Savings FundFranklin India Ultra Short Term Bond FundICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan
52ICICIdirect Money Manager
EQUITY MODEL PORTFOLIO
Our indicative large-cap equity model portfolio (“Quality-21”) has continued to deliver an impressive return of 82.3% (inclusive of dividends) till date (as on May 5, 2015) since its inception (June 21, 2011) vis-à-vis the benchmark index (S&P BSE Sensex) return of 56.3% during the same period, out-performance of 26%. This validates our thesis of selecting companies with sound business fundamentals that forms the core theme of our portfolio. Our “Consistent-15” mid-cap portfolio also continues to outperform, delivering 112.3% (inclusive of dividends) till date (as on May 5, 2015) vis-à-vis the benchmark index (CNX Midcap) return of 69%, out-performance of 43.3%. Our consistent out-performance demonstrates our superior stock picking ability as markets in H2FY15 aligned to our view of favourable risk-reward, good franchisee vs. reward-at-any-risk businesses. Some key performers of our portfolio are Lupin, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Axis Bank, TCS and Shree Cement delivering ~160-330% returns since inception.
We have always suggested the systematic investment plan (SIP) mode of investment and still find a lot of merit in it as the preferred mode of deployment given the market conditions and volatility associated since the inception of the portfolio. It has outperformed other portfolios, thus, reinforcing our belief in a plan of investment. However, now we are also advising clients to look at lump sum investments at any possible dips.
The last few months saw a paradigm shift in the global energy industry as crude prices declined to a historic five-year low to $58 (down ~40% since June 2014). Intense competition among oil-producing nations for market share (OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) vs. non-OPEC) and ramp-up in US shale resources led to this slump in global commodity aided further by languishing global growth prospects. While world economies adjust to this new normal, India, which fulfils ~80% of its oil demand through imports, could be a major beneficiary of this benign oil scenario. Thus, domestic equities attracted strong foreign institutional investor (FII) flows ($16 billion+ during CY14, highest ever) helped by a stable, reformist central government. Consequently, sectors geared towards a pick-up in domestic economy like consumer discretionary, banks, auto and cement outperformed the benchmark index. On the other hand, defensives
May 2015
53ICICIdirect Money Manager
EQUITY MODEL PORTFOLIO
saw profit booking as CNX IT and FMCG indices underperformed by ~13% each during 2014 on moderating valuations and changing investor preference.
Thus, we rebalanced our portfolio in December 2014, to capture the essence of a broader economic revival, growing urbanisation and benefits of crude declines. Accordingly, thus add stocks like Castrol India (crude), CARE (economy), Voltas (consumerisation) and Heidelberg Cement (value buying) while we feel Tata Steel, ONGC are well placed to be added to large-cap portfolio.
Though we have a tilt towards higher beta that could generate substantial returns given their respective market dominance, we have not deviated from our core focus on holding good brands. We exit DCB (74% returns), JK Cement (71%) to book profits since potential upside appears limited, hereafter, and remove Tata Global Beverages and Oberoi Realty as company-specific headwinds could likely persist in the medium term.
Our conviction in domestic recovery is visible in terms of relative weightage of sector vis-à-vis the index. We remain overweight on the consumer discretionary (auto, consumer), financials (private sector banks in particular), and the infra space (cement, infra and power). This has been primarily triggered by hopes of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on the back of moderating inflation and possibility of decisive action in the infrastructure and real economy space by the new government. We are also overweight on telecom, media owing to reducing concerns & better earnings growth.
We have turned underweight on oil & gas as we have chosen to replace Reliance with ONGC, which has better risk-reward (muted return of investment (RoI) from unrelated investments could impact the former while the latter has lessening regulatory challenges). We continue to remain underweight on pure play defensives (IT, FMCG) as secular earnings coupled with sector rotation could de-rate valuations and offer limited upside. We remain equal weight on pharmaceuticals, metals (global generic opportunity, stock specific play).
On individual names, we are strongly overweight on companies like L&T and UltraTech in the infrastructure space while we prefer HDFC & SBI in financials.
May 2015
54ICICIdirect Money Manager
EQUITY MODEL PORTFOLIO
Name of the company
Largecap Stocks
Model Portfolio
Largecap(%)
Midcap(%)
Diversified(%)
May 2015
Consumer Discretionary 12 8.4
United Spirits 4 2.8
Tata Motors DVR 4 2.8
Bajaj Auto 2 1.4
Titan 2 1.4
BFSI 30 21
HDFC 8 5.6
HDFC Bank 7 4.9
SBI 8 5.6
Axis Bank 7 4.9
Power, Infrastructure & Cement 15 10.5
L & T 8 5.6
UltraTech Cement 7 4.9
FMCG 8 5.6
ITC 8 5.6
Metals & Mining 4 2.8
Tata Steel 4 2.8
Oil and Gas 8 5.6
ONGC 6 4.2
Gail 2 1.4
Pharma 5 3.5
Lupin 2 1.4
Sun Pharma 3 2.1
IT 13 9.1
Infosys 5 3.5
TCS 5 3.5
Wipro 3 2.1
Telecom 3 2.1
Bharti Airtel 3 2.1
Media 2 1.4
Zee Entertainment 2 1.4
Largecap share in diversified 70100
55ICICIdirect Money Manager
EQUITY MODEL PORTFOLIO
Midcap Stocks
Content source: ICICIdirect.com Research
ICICI Securities has received an investment banking mandate from Government of India for disinvestment in ONGC. This report is prepared based on publicly available information.
ICICI Securities Limited has received a mandate from SBI.
This report is prepared based on publicly available information.
Name of the company Model Portfolio
Largecap(%)
Midcap(%)
Diversified(%)
May 2015
Consumer Discretionary 34 10.2
Bosch 6 1.8
Cox & Kings Ltd 6 1.8
Arvind 6 1.8
Voltas 8 2.4
Castrol 8 2.4
IT 6 1.8
Info Edge 6 1.8
BFSI 14 4.2
CARE 6 1.8
IndusInd Bank 8 2.4
FMCG 8 2.4
Kansai Nerolac 8 2.4
Pharma 6 1.8
Natco Pharma 6 1.8
Media 8 2.4
PVR 8 2.4
Capital Goods 6 1.8
Cummins 6 1.8
Realty/Infrasturcture/Cement 18 5.4
Heidelberg Cement 6 1.8
Container Corporation of India 6 1.8
Shree Cement 6 1.8
Midcap share in diversified 30
Total of all three portfolios 100 100 100
56ICICIdirect Money Manager
EQUITY MODEL PORTFOLIO
Performance* so far Since inception
*Returns (in %) as on , 2015
Large-cap Portfolio Benchmark: BSE Sensex; Mid-cap Portfolio
Benchmark: CNX Midcap; Diversified Portfolio Benchmark: Combination
of BSE Sensex and CNX Midcap
May 5
Value of ` 1,00,000 invested via SIP at the end of every month
Portfolio Benchmark
Investment Value of Investment in Portfolio Value if invested in Benchmark
Start date of SIP: June 30, 2011; *Value as on May 5, 2015
May 2015
82.3
112.3
92.3
56.3
69.058.7
0
25
50
75
100
125
%
4,8
00,0
00
4,8
00,0
00
4,8
00,0
00
6,6
55,2
14 8,8
15,8
67
7,2
27,5
05
6,2
35,0
14
7,3
89,8
73
6,5
16,3
90
3,500,000
4,500,000
5,500,000
6,500,000
7,500,000
8,500,000
|
QUIZ TIME
1. As per the draft guidelines of gold monetisation scheme, minimum gold deposit is proposed at ______ gms.
2. The new service tax rate of 14% will come into effect from ______.
3. You can extend your PPF account in blocks of 5 years without making any further contributions. True / False
4. In FY14, India imported ~US$ ______ billion worth of crude oil out of total imports of US$ 450 billion.
5. When you extend your PPF account in blocks, you can make withdrawals from the account only upto ______% of the account balance that was available at the beginning of the extended period.
Note: All the answers are in the stories that have appeared in this edition of ICICIdirect Money Manager. You may send in your answers at:
The answers will be published in our next edition. The names of the earliest all correct entries will be published too. So jog your grey cells and be quick to send in your entries.
Correct answers for the April 2015 quiz are:
1. An NRI cannot subscribe to National Pension System (NPS). True / False
A: False
2. If you withdraw money before 60 years from your NPS account, only _______% of the accumulated corpus can be withdrawn as lump sum.
A: 20%
3. Contributions to both Tier-I and Tier-II NPS accounts get tax exemptions. True / False
A: False
4. The rate of service tax has been proposed to be increased from existing rate of _____% to _____%.
A: 12.36% to 14%
5. Expand PRAN.A: Permanent Retirement Account Number
57ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
58ICICIdirect Money Manager
MONTHLY TRENDS
7.74
6.31
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Feb-15 Mar-15
(%)
47.60
59.63
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
31-Mar 5-Apr 10-Apr 15-Apr 20-Apr 25-Apr 30-Apr
$ pe
r ba
rrel
356.07
-3,157.61
283.71 2,460.80
-7000
-2000
3000
8000
13000
18000
31-Mar 5-Apr 10-Apr 15-Apr 20-Apr 25-Apr 30-Apr
FII DII
.
WPI INFLATION (FOOD)
(The figures are in %)
CRUDE OIL
NYMEX crude oil prices ($/barrel)
FII & DII INVESTMENTS
(Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and domestic institutional
investors (DII) net equity investment ( ` in crore)
May 2015
59ICICIdirect Money Manager
27957.49
27011.31
25500
26000
26500
27000
27500
28000
28500
29000
29500
31-Mar 5-Apr 10-Apr 15-Apr 20-Apr 25-Apr 30-Apr
8491.00
8181.50
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
DOMESTIC INDICES BSE Sensex
NSE Nifty
May 2015
VIX
14.49
17.23
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
31-Mar 5-Apr 10-Apr 15-Apr 20-Apr 25-Apr 30-Apr
VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX)
MONTHLY TRENDS
VIX is a key measure of market expectations of near term volatility. When the markets are highly volatile, the VIX tends to rise.
3.38%
3.65%
60ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
17776.1217840.52
17400
17700
18000
18300
31-Mar 5-Apr 10-Apr 15-Apr 20-Apr 25-Apr 30-Apr
GLOBAL INDICESDow Jones
4,900.88 4,941.42
4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
31-Mar 5-Apr 10-Apr 15-Apr 20-Apr 25-Apr 30-Apr
NASDAQ
62.28
63.52
61.0
61.5
62.0
62.5
63.0
63.5
64.0
31-Mar 5-Apr 10-Apr 15-Apr 20-Apr 25-Apr 30-Apr
US
D /
INR
EXCHANGE RATES USD-INR
MONTHLY TRENDS
0.36%
0.83%
1.99%
61ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
66.83
71.28
65.0
67.0
69.0
71.0
73.0
€/
INR
1,183.10 1,183.85
1100
1175
1250
31-Mar 5-Apr 10-Apr 15-Apr 20-Apr 25-Apr 30-Apr
$ pe
r O
unce
16.62
16.12
15.0
17.0
19.0
31-Mar 5-Apr 10-Apr 15-Apr 20-Apr 25-Apr 30-Apr
$ pe
r O
unce
POUND-INR
EURO-INR
BULLION GOLD
(The prices are in $ per ounce).
SILVER
(The prices are in $ per ounce). (Source for all indicators: Bloomberg, Reuters)
MONTHLY TRENDS
92.28
97.50
86.0
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
100.0
31-Mar 5-Apr 10-Apr 15-Apr 20-Apr 25-Apr 30-Apr
£/
INR
5.66%
6.66%
62ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
ICICIdirect Centre for Financial Learning (ICFL) imparts quality education on financial markets to beginners and amateurs, student, housewives, working professionals and self employed. ICFL's broad objective is to make participant feel confident to start investing in stock market.
Here is the list of our programmes scheduled for the month of May, 2015.
Schedule for Beginners' programme on Futures and Options (F&O) TradingSr.No
City Dates For More Information & Registration call:
Premium Education Programmes Schedule
Schedule for Fast-Track Programme on Futures & Options (F&O)Sr.No City Dates For More Information & Registration call:
Sr.No City Dates For More Information & Registration call:
Schedule for Market Master Programme
Sr.No
City Dates For More Information & Registration call:
Schedule for Technical Analysis Programme
1 Kolkata 09 and 10 MAY, 2015 Sumit Sarkar on 8017516187
2 Mumbai 16 and 17 MAY, 2015 Vidhu on 9619716146
3 Thane 16 and 17 MAY, 2015 Vidhu on 9619716146
4 New Delhi 16 and 17 MAY, 2015 Vishal on 07838290143, Harneet on 09582158693
5 Hyderabad 23 and 24 MAY, 2015 Ruchi on 8297362323
6 Mumbai 23 and 24 MAY, 2015 Vidhu on 9619716146
7 Navi Mumbai 23 and 24 MAY, 2015 Manish Jamb on 8451057943
8 Jaipur 15 and 16 MAY, 2015 Vishal on 07838290143
9 Bangalore 09 and 10 MAY, 2015 Subrata on 9620001478
10 Ahmedabad 16 and 17 MAY, 2015 Yogesh on 8238053563
11 Mumbai 23 and 24 MAY, 2015 Vidhu on 9619716146
12 Hyderabad 16 and 17 MAY, 2015 Ruchi on 8297362323
13 Kolkata 30 and 31 MAY, 2015 Sumit Sarkar on 8017516187
14 New Delhi 16 and 17 MAY, 2015 Vishal on 07838290143, Harneet on 09582158693
15 Bangalore 16 and 17 MAY, 2015 Subrata on 9620001478
Sr.No
City Dates For More Information & Registration call:
Schedule for Foundation Programme on Stock Investing
16 New Delhi 09 and 10 MAY, 2015 Vishal on 07838290143, Harneet on 09582158693
17 Thane 09 and 10 MAY, 2015 Vidhu on 9619716146
18 Mumbai 09 and 10 MAY, 2015 Vidhu on 9619716146
19 Navi Mumbai 09 and 10 MAY, 2015 Manish Jamb on 8451057943
63ICICIdirect Money Manager May 2015
Contact us
Email:
Send us an email at [email protected] mention the name, date and venue of the programme you have
attended or wish to attend, for faster resolution of your queries.
SMS:
SMS EDU to 5676766 for more details
Sr.No
City Dates For More Information & Registration call:
Schedule for Advanced Derivatives Trading Strategies Programme
Sr.No City Dates For More Information & Registration call:
Schedule for Fast-track Programme on Stock Investing
Sr.No City Dates For More Information & Registration call:
Schedule for Fast-track Programme on Technical Analysis
20 Bangalore 09 and 10 MAY, 2015 Subrata on 9620001478
21 Hyderabad 09 and 10 MAY, 2015 Ruchi on 8297362323
22 Mumbai 16 and 17 MAY, 2015 Vidhu on 9619716146
23 Mysore 16 and 17 MAY, 2015 Subrata on 9620001478
24 New Delhi 16 and 17 MAY, 2015 Vishal on 07838290143, Harneet on 09582158693
25 Mumbai 16 and 17 MAY, 2015 Vidhu on 9619716146
26 Bangalore 02 and 03 MAY, 2015 Subrata on 9620001478
27 Hyderabad 30 and 31 MAY, 2015 Ruchi on 8297362323
28 Kolkata 23 and 24 MAY, 2015 Sumit Sarkar on 8017516187
29 New Delhi 30 and 31 MAY, 2015 Vishal on 07838290143, Harneet on 09582158693
30 Surat 03 MAY, 2015 Yogesh on 8238053563
31 Dhanbad 10 MAY, 2015 Sumit Sarkar on 8017516187
32 Kolhapur 16 MAY, 2015 Kusmakar on 7875442311
33 Trichy 09 MAY, 2015 Subrata on 9620001478
held in January 2015.
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