ICEG EICEG European uropean Center Center
Factors and Impacts in the Information Society:
Analysis of the New Member States and Associated Candidate Countries
Pál Gáspár Pál Gáspár
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
Structure of Presentation
NMS and ACC-3 countries: Comparative Review of Lisbon Indicators
IST Level of Development ICT Level of Development Factors Affecting IST and ICT Developments Open Issues
I. NMS and ACC-3 countries: Comparative Review of Lisbon Indicators
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
Structural Indicators: GDP per capita
GDP per capita, 2003, PPS, EU-15=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
TR RO BG LV PL LT ACC-13
EE SK NMS HU CZ MT SI CY EU-15
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
Structural Indicators: Labour Productivity
Labour Productivity, 2003, EU-15=100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
BG RO TR LV LT EE PL ACC-13 NMS SK CZ HU SI CY MT EU-15
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
Structural Indicators: Employment Rates
Employment rates, %
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
TR PL BG MT HU RO SK ACC-13
NMS LV LT EE SI EU-15 CZ CY
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
Structural Indicators: Spending on Human Resources
Spending on Human Resources/GDP
01234
5678
RO TR SI BG CZ HU SK ACC-13
MT EU-15
PL NMS CY LV LT EE
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
Structural Indicators: R+D Expenditures
R+D expenditures (in % of GDP)
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
CY RO LV BG PL EE TR LT SK ACC-13 HU CZ SI EU-15
II. IST Level of Development
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
IST Level of Development: ICT Market Value
• Significant gap between NMS and older Member States,
• Levels linked to level of economic development,
• Differences in the € or in GDP based ranking are significant among NMS (income and price convergence, PPS measurement)
• Recently changes in ranking as fast growth rates and real increase of the ICT market values in some countries (Poland, Slovakia), while slight decline in others
ICT Market value in Euro, 2003
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
RO TR BG LT PL LV SK EE HU CZ MA SL EU-15
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
IST Level of Development: Access Path and Fixed Lines
• Smaller gaps between NMS and EU-15
• Structural factors explaining part of the differences
• Different trends in mobile and fixed penetration rates in individual NMS and ACC-3 countries
• Significant gaps among the NMS and ACC-3 in stock and especially flow figures
Access rates and fixed lines
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
RO LV BG PL ACC13 LT SK EE HU MT SI CZ EU15
Access rates
Fixed lines
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
IST Level of Development: PC availability
Number of PCs per 100 of population
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
BG TR RO ACC13 HU PL LT LV SK CZ EE MA CY SL EU15
Gaps in PC use high and have been recently growing
Strong correlation with income levels and three country groups
Besides incomes prices and affordability, policies and supply of IS services are the major explanatory factors
Dynamic picture differs strongly between NMS and ACC-3 with increasing gaps
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
IST Level of Development: Households online
Households online (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
RO TR SK BG LT LV PL HU EE CZ CY MT SI
Low levels except Malta and Slovenia, and surprisingly low in NMS,
Income differences, access prices are important
Strong correlation between percentage of households online and the relative level of development
Strong correlation between the number of households online and the level of fixed line penetration rates
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
IST Level of Development: Access Costs
Dial up and PC costs in % of monthly household income
0
5
10
15
20
25
BG PL SK RO LT LV HU ACC13
EE CZ TR SL MT CY
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
20 hours peak dial-up costs
PC
Cyprus, Malta and Slovenia are the leading countries as the relative costs of Internet access, PC purchase in PPS adjusted level and relative to households income is the lowest,
Regulation, market structure, income differences, income growth explain mainly the differences,
There is also a fairly strong correlation between Internet penetration rates and price of
access.
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
IST Level of Development: Broadband penetration
Broadband penetration (%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
LI PO RO SK BG CZ LA HU SLO EE EU-15
Much lower shares in NMS and ACC-3 in broadband
Broadband technology outdated Government policy, private
sector spending, public funding, technological constraints, price levels explain the gaps between NMS and EU-15
Recent recognition of gaps and accelerated developments, national broadband strategies
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
IST Level of Development: Digital Divide Index
Digital Divide Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
EU-15 EE CZ PO SK SLO LI HU LA BG RO
Higher but not significantly worse index for NMS and ACC-3 than for the EU-15
Gender gap is less, but income and education gaps are more important determinants of the Index
Digital divide in these countries comes also with bigger social and regional divides
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
IST Level of Development: Conclusions
Considerable and indicator specific gaps between NMS and ACC-3 and the EU-15 in IS indicators
Gaps in most cases widening, sometimes fast: PC use, broadband access, ICT market value and households online show it most ,
Major areas of concern: low level of PC use in households, high
access prices, the low share of broadband access, Quantitative differences hide also qualitative ones between NMS
and ACC-3 and the EU-15, Significant differences exist in use of information and
communication technologies by the business, household and public sectors
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
IST Level of Development: Conclusions
As expected close links between the indicators: e.g. access prices, and PC purchase positively correlated
with Internet penetration rates While stock figures reflect significant and sometimes
widening gaps, recent flow data are more favourable in NMS and ACC-3,
There are significant differences between the individual NMS and ACC-3 countries
ICT Level of Development
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
ICT Level of Development: ICT Sector in Production
ICT sector in GDP
0
5
10
15
20
25
LA PL SK RO LI CZ EU.15 HU BG SLO EE MA
• Contribution to GDP between 1,3% and 22,5%,
• Malta, Slovenia, Hungary are the leading producers,
• Three types of ICT sectors depending on the destination of sales and domestic market size
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
ICT Level of Development: ICT Sector in Employment
ICT sector in employment
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
PL LI RO BG SK MA EE CZ HU LA SLO EU-15
• Contribution varies between 0,3% and 5 % of the total labour force,
• Low level of ICT output and high productivity explain the levels below production
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
ICT Level of Development: ICT Sector in Exports
ICT sectors in exports
0
10
20
30
40
50
LA BG RO SK PL LI CZ SLO EE HU MA
• Very high differences due to different market size and openness level,
• Re-exporting and assembling with gradually increasing value added content
• Vulnerability to shocks, re-deployment and cost competition.
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
ICT Level of Development: ICT Sector Trade Balance
ICT trade balance/GDP
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
SK LV CY RO LT BG SL PL TR HU CZ EE MA
• Deficits prevail with the exception of Malta and Estonia
• Different reasons: either temporary due to product cycle or permanent due to low domestic production and growing consumption
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
ICT Level of Development: Conclusions
Bigger polarisation in ICT indicators than IST indicators among the NMS and ACC-3 countries
The value and the market share of ICT sector in NMS and ACC-3 is lower than in EU countries and EU-15
ICT output in total is below EU levels except for some countries with a strong FDI penetration and production in these sectors
ICT related spending and consumption is lower both at households and enterprises level than in the older Member States
The future of ICT sector is very country-dependent
IV. Factors Affecting IST and ICT Developments
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
Factors Affecting IS Developments
I. Economic Growth and Real Convergence Income level and its growth strongly influence the nature and speed of
the spread of information society ICT spending and economic growth closely linked,
Affecting disposable incomes and private investments,
II. Changing pattern of household consumption: Significant increase in real private consumption Consumption dynamics driven besides income by composition effects Changes in real private consumption considering price developments,
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
Factors Affecting IS Developments
III. Sustainability of public finances and public sector reform
Lack of public funding of IS developments, Fiscal imbalances constrain IS funding, Lack of public finance reform and bad composition of public
expenditures,
IV. Economic, social and regional disparities Widening regional disparities, Social divides: income distribution, long-term unemployment,
employment levels, Differences in access to IS services and goods,
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
Factors Affecting ICT Developments
Restructuring: expanding service sector and reindustrialisation with remaining structural legacies
FDI and the economic openness of the countries Financial sector development and its financing capacity
for the ICT sector Privatisation and regulation Educational levels and supply of human capital
V. Open Issues
ICEG European Center, www.icegec.org
Open Issues Raised by the Research
ICT, productivity and competitiveness Policy bottlenecks in developing a well
functioning information society ICT and IST Developments and the Lisbon
IndicatorsICT and Use of Structural Funds in the NMS
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTIONTHANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
PÁL GÁSPÁRPÁL GÁSPÁRDirectorDirector
14 Korompai Street 14 Korompai Street H-1124 BudapestH-1124 Budapest
Tel: +36-1-248-1160Tel: +36-1-248-1160Fax: +36-1-248-1161Fax: +36-1-248-1161
E-mail: [email protected]: [email protected] site : www.icegec.orgWeb site : www.icegec.org
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