Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 2011 Review2011 Review
Kenny JamesForecaster
With contributions from Faye Barthold, Mike Bodner, Keith Brill, Mike Folmer, Jim Hoke, Dave Novak, Bob Oravec, Dan Petersen, and Mike Schichtel
1
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
ObjectivesObjectives
2
• Summary of HPC operations
• Verification/Feedback/Future of - QPF - Winter weather - Medium range - Testbed activities
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
HPC Operations
Model DiagnosticsSurface Analysis
QPF
Daily Weather Map
Short Term Weather
Medium Range
Alaska Med. Range Tropical
Hydrometeorological guidance for:
•NWS field offices
•Other NCEP centers
•Federal/state agencies
•Aviation
•Media
•Private sector
•International partners
•Academic community
•General public
Winter Weather
Surface Analysis
QPF
Daily Weather Map
Short Term Weather
Medium RangeWinter Weather
Alaska Med. Range Tropical
Model Diagnostics
3
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
% Improvement over NAM 31%% Improvement over GFS 25%% Improvement over ECMWF 13%
FY11 annual GPRA Goal 0.3, HPC 0.34 – 2nd highest ever
5
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
QPF FeedbackQPF Feedback
• Latest NAM (NEMS-NMMB) shows some improvement over prior Latest NAM (NEMS-NMMB) shows some improvement over prior version, possibly attributed to less of a slow biasversion, possibly attributed to less of a slow bias
• NAM CONUSNEST shows better skill than parent runNAM CONUSNEST shows better skill than parent run
• GFS more consistent and reliable since July 2010 implementation, GFS more consistent and reliable since July 2010 implementation, more often the model of choice compared to pre-July 2010 versionmore often the model of choice compared to pre-July 2010 version
7
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Positional biases continue for MCSsPositional biases continue for MCSsFrom Yost and Schumacher, 2011From Yost and Schumacher, 2011
NAM & GFSNAM & GFS
8
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
0.25” in 6h @ F24
Perfe
ct
SREF
May 2010 – June 2011
SREFSREF
SREF overconfident
HPC PQPF – Gaining popularity!HPC PQPF – Gaining popularity!
Mean/spread useful - contribute to variance for PQPF, but also overconfidentMean/spread useful - contribute to variance for PQPF, but also overconfident
9
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Hi-res NMM/ARWHi-res NMM/ARW
• Often improve upon the north bias for MCSsOften improve upon the north bias for MCSs
• Still a high bias with many false alarmsStill a high bias with many false alarms
• Missed have them July 19/20 during recordMissed have them July 19/20 during record
flooding due to preemption for tropical invest systemsflooding due to preemption for tropical invest systems
• Contribute to a hi-res ensemble suite (SSEO)Contribute to a hi-res ensemble suite (SSEO)
compiled at the SPCcompiled at the SPC
10
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
HPC Deterministic SnowfallHPC Deterministic Snowfall
East of the RockiesEast of the Rockies
Heavily influenced by 2 major snowstorms,Heavily influenced by 2 major snowstorms,which models had difficulty withwhich models had difficulty with
12
x 10
0
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
East of the RockiesEast of the Rockies
HPC Deterministic SnowfallHPC Deterministic Snowfall
13
.
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Winter Wx Winter Wx FeedbackFeedback
- influences - influences precip type & precip type & snow amounts snow amounts
in our WWD in our WWD blender, blender,
forecasters forecasters less confidentless confident
New NAM too deep with lows Oct 28, Nov 1, 8, 28New NAM too deep with lows Oct 28, Nov 1, 8, 28
15
- Image from WFO La Crosse
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Winter Wx Feedback Cont.Winter Wx Feedback Cont.
• P-type & SN based on microphysics/LSM dataP-type & SN based on microphysics/LSM data
• Would like additional parameters for our WWD blender Would like additional parameters for our WWD blender
- NAM CONEST 700 mb temps- NAM CONEST 700 mb temps
- UKMET 78 hr 2m/925/850/700 mb temps- UKMET 78 hr 2m/925/850/700 mb temps
• Impact-based guidance to assist in decision support and Impact-based guidance to assist in decision support and determining societal impactsdetermining societal impacts
- SREF prob of ZR (0.1, 0.10, 0.25, etc..), Max SN rate - SREF prob of ZR (0.1, 0.10, 0.25, etc..), Max SN rate
16
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
1) RTMA based downscaling
2) Model 2m temps replace HPC adjusted MOS and GEFS MOS
3) GMOS replaces MEX MOS
5) 50 day bias corrected ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble Mean
6) 50 day bias corrected GFS and GEFS Mean
4) GMOS / GFS MEX MOS Hybrid
6 upgrades over the past year!
Manually Adjusted Days 4-7 Grid Verification vs RTMA
18
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
GFS/GEFS Fast Bias
Medium Range FeedbackMedium Range Feedback
19
- Verification white- GFS yellow- GEFS members brown
too fast
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
GFS MOS Max T day 7 possibly bogusGFS MOS Max T day 7 possibly bogus
Max T at Roswell, NMmuch higher
Medium Range FeedbackMedium Range Feedback
20
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Medium Range Feedback
• NAEFS grids for all NDFD parametersNAEFS grids for all NDFD parameters
• More model guidance for watch/warning decision support & for More model guidance for watch/warning decision support & for determining societal impactsdetermining societal impacts
- GEFS probs for SN > 4, 8, 12”, ZR > 0.01, 0.10, 0.25”- GEFS probs for SN > 4, 8, 12”, ZR > 0.01, 0.10, 0.25”
- Heat index > 105, Wind Chill < -15, Wind Speed > 25 or 35 kts- Heat index > 105, Wind Chill < -15, Wind Speed > 25 or 35 kts
• Access to parallel runs of the GFS/GEFS without adaptive sounding Access to parallel runs of the GFS/GEFS without adaptive sounding datadata
• Hopeful that the improved NAM leads to a better DGEX Hopeful that the improved NAM leads to a better DGEX
21
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Testbed Interactions Testbed Interactions
GOES-R Proving Ground
22
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Final thoughts & plans Final thoughts & plans
• Interpreting hi-res guidance may require a paradigm shiftInterpreting hi-res guidance may require a paradigm shift
• Native grid resolution desired by forecastersNative grid resolution desired by forecasters
• Clearer file naming convention for modelsClearer file naming convention for models
• 2012-16 HPC plans & activities include:2012-16 HPC plans & activities include:
- Expand decision support services for high impact events - Expand decision support services for high impact events
- Extend medium range, including adding probabilities - Extend medium range, including adding probabilities
- Increase automation for greater responsiveness- Increase automation for greater responsiveness23
Top Related