How do psychologists
answer questions? Module 2
1. Why is psychology “fuzzier” than hard sciences? 2. Why do psychologists struggle to be accepted as
scientists? (Why not just do theoretical and philosophical work and throw empiricism to the wind?)
3. Why can’t we just rely on intuition and common sense in understanding the workings of the human mind?
4. What does the term “Hindsight is 20/20” mean? 5. How does “Hindsight is 20/20” apply to the
scientific method?
Stinger
Why are the answers that flow from the scientific
approach more reliable than those based on common sense and intuition?
How do psychologists use the scientific method to construct theories?
The limits of intuition and common sense Intuition can lead a person astray Some questions are not intuitive
How big is paper folded 100 times? How many people need to be in a group in order to have a
50% chance of sharing a birthday? Notions of common sense err also
Thinking Critically With Psychological
Science
Doctors see cause of death as self-evident if presented with both a case study and an autopsy, but have trouble predicting death without the autopsy (Dawson, et al 1998)
Slovic and Fischoff( 1977) and Wood (1979): Psychology studies SEEM like common sense Does absence make the heart grow fonder? Out of sight out of mind? Anecdotal evidence exists to support both claims.
witnesses much more sure of suspect if they are told which one is being suspected. Wells and Bradfield (1998):all students made false identification
after watching a grainy video, but the ones who were told they did it right recalled greater confidence
Post hoc ergo propter hoc Describes better than predicts
The Hindsight Bias
We are all observers of behavior Science proves a human “need to belong” Sometimes common sense is wrong
Familiarity breeds contempt? Dreams predict the future? Pre menstrual syndrome involves emotionality?
Overconfidence We think we know more than we do We are more confident than correct Underestimation of unscramble task (Goranson 1978)
Common Sense
How long would it take you to unscramble
Wreat -> Water Etryn -> Entry Grabe -> Barge
Now unscramble OCHSA
Unscramble task
Collegians predicting voting behavior, dropping a
class, calling home, etc. were correct 71% of the time. (Vallone 1990)
Tetlock (1998) Asked experts to predict political, economic, and
military situation five years out Experts asked to recollect after five years The more confident the expert felt, the less correct
he was (80%+ confidence = 40%- correct) Despite getting things wrong, they could all justify
the ways in which they were right.
Predicting our Own Behavior
Give evidence for the saying “absence makes
the heart grow fonder.” Give evidence for the saying “out of sight, out
of mind” Why might you be able to find evidence for
both of these? What, then, does common sense tell you
about these terms? How might you go about testing them?
Stop and Review
Testing claims
Moses (test the claims of the prophet) James Randi and the Aura seers Meteorites?
Skeptical but not cynical Humility: the ability to reject your own ideas “The rat is always right!” Critical Thinking
Examine assumptions Discern hidden valuse Evaluate evidence Assess conclusions
The scientific attitude
Massive brain loss in early life has minimal long-
term effects. Within days, newborns recognize their mothers’
odor and voice. Brain damage can leave a person able to learn
new skills yet be unaware of them. Diverse groups report similar levels of personal
happiness Electroconvulsive therapy is a good treatment
for sever depression.
Surprising findings!
The midlife crisis is a psychological
phenomenon. Mothers suffer from “empty nest syndrome.” Sleepwalkers are not acting out their dreams. Sleep talkers are not talking through their
dreams. Past experiences are not indelibly and
permanent recorded in our brains and cannot be access in full through hypnosis.
Most people do NOT suffer from low self-esteem.
Opposites do not attract.
What you believe, but is wrong
Exit Ticket
What common perception can YOU test using a scientific attitude? How would you test it?
Homework Review your notes. Define the following and give an example of each.
Hindsight bias Critical Thinking
Write three questions that you wish to know more about.
Exit Ticket and Homework
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