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HOUSINGAFFORDABILITYINNEWJERSEY

THEAFFORDABLEHOUSINGTRUSTFUNDANDCONCERNSOVERHOUSINGCOSTSINTHEGARDENSTATE

EagletonCenterforPublicInterestPolling

HousingandCommunityDevelopmentNetworkofNewJersey

AshleyKoning,PhDDirectorandAssistantResearchProfessor

StaciBergerPresidentandCEO

June2018

EAGLETONCENTERFORPUBLICINTERESTPOLLING|HOUSINGANDCOMMUNITYDEVELOPMENTNETWORKOFNEWJERSEY

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TheEagletonCenterforPublicInterestPolling(ECPIP),homeoftheRutgers-EagletonPoll,was

establishedin1971.Nowcelebratingalmostfivedecadesandover200publicopinionpollson

thestateofNewJersey,ECPIPistheoldestandoneofthemostrespecteduniversity-basedstate

surveyresearchcentersintheUnitedStates.

Ourmissionistoprovidescientificallysound,non-partisaninformationaboutpublicopinion.

ECPIPconductsresearchforalllevelsofgovernmentandnonprofitorganizationswithapublic

interestmission,aswellascollegeanduniversity-basedresearchersandstaff.ECPIPmakesita

prioritytodesignopportunitiesforundergraduateandgraduatestudentstolearnhowtoread,

analyze,design,andadministerpolls.Weprideourselvesonintegrity,quality,andobjectivity.

ToreadmoreaboutECPIPandviewallofourpressreleasesandpublishedresearch,pleasevisit

ourwebsite:eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu.Youcanalsovisitourextensivedataarchive,blog,

Facebook,andTwitter.


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Since1989,theHousingandCommunityDevelopmentNetworkofNewJerseyhasworkedto

improvetheenvironmentfortheworkofcommunitydevelopmentcorporations(CDCs),andto

strengthentheircapacitytocreateaffordablehomesandrevitalizedistressedneighborhoods

throughoutNewJersey.

TheNetworkisastatewideassociationofover250non-profithousingandcommunity

developmentcorporations,individuals,professionalorganizations,andprominentNewJersey

corporationsthatsupportthecreationofhousingchoicesandeconomicopportunitiesforlow-

andmoderate-incomecommunityresidents.

TheNetworkanditsmembersshareacommitmenttopromotingeconomicjusticeandthe

empowermentoflow-incomeindividualsandcommunities,andencouragingwiderparticipation

intheframingandimplementationofpublicpolicies.WesupportourCDCmembersby

providingtargetedtechnicalassistanceandeducationalprograms,pursuingadditional

resourcesandimprovedpublicpolicies,andconductingresearchonwaystoenhancetheimpact

andeffectivenessofthecommunitydevelopmentsector.


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8in10wanttheAffordableHousingTrustFundtobeusedforitsoriginalintention

ItisnoquestionthatNewJerseyansacrosstheboardwanttheAffordableHousingTrustFund

tobeusedsolelyforbuildingaffordablehomes.Whentoldthatthisfundinghasbeenusedto

payforotherprogramsinthestatebudgetinrecentyearsinsteadofforitsoriginalintention,

79percentofresidentssayitshouldbeusedsolelyforthelatter.Just16percentfeelthestate

governmentshouldbeabletousethesefundsforotherpurposes,and5percentareunsure.

Usingthefundsfortheiroriginalintention

hasaboutthesamehighlevelofsupport

fromDemocrats,Independents,and

Republicans,alike.Seniorcitizens(89

percent)andthoselivinginthesouthern

regionofthestatenearPhiladelphia(90

percent)aremostlikelytowanttoseethe

fundsusedfortheiroriginalpurpose.

Residentswhofeelthecostofhousingin

NewJerseyisaseriousproblemaremorelikelytosayfundsshouldbeusedfortheiroriginal

intentionthanthosewhofeelhousingcostsarenotaseriousproblem.Asimilarpattern

emergesbetweenthosewhosayitisdifficulttofindreasonablypricedhousingversusthose

whosayitisnot.

Almost9in10thinkthecostofhousingisaseriousproblemandthatitisdifficulttofindreasonablypricedhousinginNewJersey

AlmostallresidentsbelievethecostofhousinginNewJerseyisaseriousproblemtosome

degree:51percentsayitisa“veryserious”problem,andanother35percentthinkitisa


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“somewhatserious”problem.Just12percentsaytheopposite,splitevenlybetweenwhetherit

is“notaveryserious”problemand“notaproblematall.”

Anoverwhelmingmajorityofeverysingledemographicgroupfeelsthatthecostofhousingisa

seriousissue,thoughtovaryingdegrees.Thoseinhouseholdsmaking$100,000ormore

annuallyareabitlesslikelytofeelitisa“veryseriousproblem”comparedtothosein

householdsmakingless.Residentsofurbanareas,ontheotherhand,areslightlymorelikely

thanthoseinotherregionstosaythathousingcostsarea“veryseriousproblem.”

HowdifficultNewJerseyansthinkitistofindreasonablypricedhousinginthestatefollowsa

similaroverallpattern:49percentfeelitis“verydifficult,”andanother38percentsayitis

“somewhatdifficult.”Just6percentsayitis“notverydifficult,”and3percentsayitis“not

difficultatall.”

Democratsareonlyslightlymorelikelytofeelthisway(90percentsay“very”or“somewhat

difficult”)thanIndependents(85percent)andRepublicans(83percent),butthesedifferences

arenotsignificant.Thereisasignificantandmarkeddifferencebygender,however:57percent

ofwomensayitis“verydifficult”tofindanaffordablehomeinthestate,comparedto40


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percentofmen.Middle-agedresidentsarealsomorelikelytofeelthatfindinganaffordable

homeis“verydifficult”thaneithertheiryoungeroroldercounterparts.

Non-whiteresidentsareabitmorelikelytoexpressdifficultythanwhiteresidents–52percent

versus46percentwhosay“verydifficult.”Thisdifferenceisdrivenespeciallybyblackresidents,

whoareaboutoneandahalftimesmorelikelythanwhiteresidentstosayitis“verydifficult”

tofindreasonablypricedhousing.

Thoseinhouseholdsmakinglessthan$50,000annuallyandresidentslivinginurbanareasare

morelikelythanvirtuallyanyotherdemographicgrouptosayfindingreasonablypricedhousing

is“verydifficult”(62percentand63percent,respectively).

Residentswhoseethecostofhousingasamoreseriousprobleminthestatearealsomore

likelythantheircounterpartstosayitisdifficulttofindreasonablypricedhousinghere.Those

moreworriedabouttheirownabilitytoaffordhousinginthenearfuturearesimilarlymore

likelytoperceivegreaterdifficultythanthosewhoarelessworriedabouttheirsituation.

Rentersarealsooneandahalftimesmorelikelytosayitis“verydifficult”tofindreasonably

pricedhousingthanowners(64percentto42percent).

Mostworrytosomeextentaboutbeingabletoaffordhousinginthenextthreetofiveyears

Aboutthree-quartersofresidentsworry“alot”

(44percent)or“some”(31percent)aboutbeing

abletoaffordhousinginNewJersey;24percent,

ontheotherhand,saythey“hardlyworryatall.”

Femaleresidentsworrymorethanmale

residents:79percentofwomensaytheyworry


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“alot”or“some”versus69percentofmen.Non-whiteresidentsarealsomorelikelythan

whiteresidentstoworrytosomeextent–84percentto70percent.

Concerndropssignificantlyamongseniorcitizenscomparedtootheragegroups:aboutsixin10

residents65yearsorolderexpresssomeworry,comparedtoeightin10amongtheiryounger

counterparts.Thoselivinginurbanareasarethemostworried(82percentsay“alot”or

“some”),whileresidentsinexurbanareasandinthesouthernpartofthestateareleast

worried(67percentand70percent,respectively).Worrydeclinesasincomerises.

Thosewhobelievehousingcostsareaprobleminthestatearemorelikelytoworrythanthose

whofeeltheproblemis“notveryserious”or“notaproblematall.”Similarly,residentswho

sayitisdifficulttofindreasonablypricedhousingworrymorethanthosewhosayitisnot

difficult.Residentsmoreconcernedabouttheirmonthlyhousingcostsarealsomoreworried

thantheircounterparts.Rentersaresignificantlymoreworriedthanthosewhoownproperty:

amongrenters,55percentworry“alot”and32percentworry“some,”comparedto38percent

and31percent,respectively,amonghomeowners.

Nevertheless,two-thirdsfeeltheirmonthlyhousingcostsareatleast“somewhat”affordable

Whenitcomestotheirownfinancialsituation,14percentsaytheirmonthlyhousingcostsare

“veryaffordable,”andanother49percentsaytheyare“somewhataffordable.”Overathird,on

theotherhand,feeltheircostsareeither“notveryaffordable”(24percent)or“notaffordable

atall”(11percent).Thissentimentdoesnotfluctuatemuchbetweenvariouskeydemographic

groups.Seniorcitizens(76percent),urbanresidents(70percent),andexurbanresidents(72

percent)arethemostlikelytosaytheircostsareatleast“somewhataffordable.”Thosewhodo

notseethecostofhousingasaseriousproblemaremorelikelytosaytheirmonthlycostsare

affordablecomparedtothosewhobelievethatthecostofhousingisaseriousissue.


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MostNewJerseyansarehomeowners,butkeydemographicdifferencespersist

Sixty-sevenpercentofNewJerseyanssaythattheyownahouse,while8percentrentahouse.

Seventeenpercentrentanapartment,andanother3percentrentaroominahouseor

apartment.Fivepercentlivewitharelativeorfriendrent-free.

Therearesomekeydemographicdisparitiesinhomeownership.Whiteresidentsarealmost

twiceaslikelytoownahouseasnon-whiteresidents(81percentversus45percent),whoare

morelikelytoinsteadrentanapartment(28percentversus9percent)orhouse(13percent

versus5percent).Youngerresidentsarealsolesslikelytoownandmorelikelytorent;eightin

10residentsover50yearsold,ontheotherhand,ownahouse.

Homeownershipriseswithincome:thoseinthehighestincomebracketarealmostthreetimes

aslikelyasthoseinthelowestincomebrackettosaytheyownahouse(89percentversus33

percent).Residentslivinginurbanareasarelesslikelytoownahousethanthoselivinginother

areasofthestateandare,inturn,morelikelytorent.


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QuestionsandTablesThequestionscoveredinthisreleasearelistedbelow.Columnpercentagesmaynotaddto100%duetorounding.RespondentsareNewJerseyadults;allpercentagesareofweightedresults.Interpretgroupswithsamplessizesunder100withcaution.Q. Whatisyourcurrenthousingsituation?Doyou,ordoestheheadofyourhousehold,currently:Ownahouse 67%Rentahouse 8%Rentanapartment 17%Rentroomsinhouse/apartment 3%Livewithrelative/friendforfree 5%UnwghtN= 703

PartyID Gender Race Age Income

Dem Ind Rep Male Female WhiteNon-wht. 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <$50K

$50K-<$100K

$100K-<$150K $150K+

Ownahouse 63% 64% 77% 68% 66% 81% 45% 40% 67% 80% 83% 33% 68% 84% 89%Rentahouse 11% 8% 5% 6% 11% 5% 13% 11% 11% 7% 3% 18% 11% 3% 1%Rentanapartment 17% 19% 14% 17% 17% 9% 28% 27% 19% 12% 7% 38% 12% 8% 7%Rentroomsinhouse/apartment 4% 2% 0% 3% 2% 1% 6% 3% 3% 1% 4% 6% 2% 0% 2%Livewithrelative/friendfree 5% 7% 4% 6% 5% 4% 7% 19% 0% 0% 2% 6% 7% 4% 2%UnwghtN= 260 282 140 354 349 455 221 172 134 217 180 138 225 113 141

Region

Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South ShoreOwnahouse 47% 69% 71% 68% 74%Rentahouse 8% 5% 7% 14% 10%Rentanapartment 32% 19% 15% 9% 8%Rentroomsinhouse/apartment 7% 1% 1% 5% 2%Livewithrelative/friendfree 5% 6% 6% 4% 5%UnwtN= 97 256 102 105 143


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Q. Thinkingaboutthestateasawhole,doyouthinkthecostofhousinginNewJerseyisaveryseriousproblem,asomewhat seriousproblem,notaveryseriousproblem,orisitnotaproblematall?Veryserious 51%Somewhatserious 35%Notveryserious 6%Notaproblematall 6%Don’tknow(vol) 1%UnwghtN= 704



$50K-<$100K

$100K-<$150K $150K+

Veryserious 50% 52% 48% 47% 55% 50% 53% 51% 53% 54% 45% 55% 56% 47% 43%Somewhatserious 39% 32% 36% 36% 35% 36% 35% 35% 36% 30% 42% 34% 31% 43% 39%Notveryserious 6% 8% 6% 8% 5% 7% 7% 6% 5% 7% 7% 8% 4% 4% 12%Notaproblematall 5% 6% 8% 8% 4% 7% 4% 4% 6% 9% 4% 3% 8% 5% 6%Don’tknow(vol) 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 4% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0%UnwghtN= 260 283 140 354 350 455 222 172 134 218 180 138 225 113 141

Region HousingSituation

Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Own RentVeryserious 56% 50% 51% 46% 52% 47% 60%Somewhatserious 31% 41% 35% 34% 29% 38% 30%Notveryserious 3% 6% 4% 15% 6% 6% 7%Notaproblematall 8% 3% 8% 5% 9% 7% 2%Don’tknow(vol) 2% 0% 1% 0% 4% 1% 2%UnwtN= 97 256 102 105 144 511 157


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Q. HowdifficultdoyouthinkitisittofindreasonablypricedhousinginNewJersey?Verydifficult,somewhatdifficult,not verydifficult,ornotdifficultatall?Verydifficult 49%Somewhatdifficult 38%Notverydifficult 6%Notdifficultatall 3%Don’tknow(vol) 3%UnwghtN= 703



$50K-<$100K

$100K-<$150K $150K+

Verydifficult 48% 50% 45% 40% 57% 46% 52% 49% 55% 50% 39% 62% 52% 37% 40%Somewhatdifficult 42% 35% 38% 42% 34% 39% 38% 37% 35% 38% 45% 25% 35% 47% 47%Notverydifficult 5% 6% 10% 9% 4% 8% 5% 5% 5% 10% 6% 4% 8% 6% 9%Notdifficultatall 2% 5% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% 2% 5% 2% 3% 6% 3%Don’tknow(vol) 2% 4% 4% 4% 2% 4% 2% 4% 3% 1% 4% 5% 1% 3% 1%UnwghtN= 260 283 140 354 349 454 222 172 134 217 180 137 225 113 141


Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Own RentVerydifficult 63% 49% 44% 44% 44% 42% 64%Somewhatdifficult 25% 40% 46% 38% 40% 43% 27%Notverydifficult 5% 7% 5% 8% 7% 8% 3%Notdifficultatall 0% 3% 3% 5% 6% 4% 2%Don’tknow(vol) 7% 2% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3%UnwtN= 97 255 102 105 144 510 157


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Q. Howaffordabledoyoufeelyourmonthlyhousingcostsare?Veryaffordable,somewhataffordable,notveryaffordable, ornotatallaffordable? May2018 Trend:Feb1995Veryaffordable 14% 22%Somewhataffordable 49% 52%Notveryaffordable 24% 18%Notatallaffordable 11% 4%Don’tknow(vol) 2% 3%UnwghtN= 702 801



$50K-<$100K

$100K-<$150K $150K+

Veryaffordable 18% 13% 10% 11% 16% 16% 12% 10% 13% 13% 21% 15% 14% 10% 14%Somewhataffordable 51% 44% 53% 51% 47% 48% 49% 51% 45% 45% 55% 44% 51% 52% 50%Notveryaffordable 22% 28% 19% 23% 26% 23% 26% 26% 33% 24% 10% 26% 25% 27% 25%Notatallaffordable 6% 12% 14% 12% 10% 10% 11% 7% 9% 16% 11% 14% 9% 10% 7%Don’tknow(vol) 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 3% 1% 6% 0% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 3%UnwghtN= 259 283 139 353 349 453 222 172 134 218 178 138 225 112 141


Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Own RentVeryaffordable 18% 13% 16% 10% 14% 13% 16%Somewhataffordable 52% 45% 56% 43% 50% 52% 44%Notveryaffordable 18% 25% 23% 33% 23% 24% 26%Notatallaffordable 11% 13% 4% 12% 10% 10% 13%Don’tknow(vol) 1% 3% 1% 2% 3% 1% 1%UnwghtN= 97 255 102 105 143 509 157


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Q. Inthenextthreetofiveyears,howmuchdoyouworryaboutbeingabletoaffordhousinginNewJersey?Alot,some,or hardlyatall? May2018 Trend:Nov1999*Alot 44% 20%Some 31% 28%Hardlyatall 24% 51%Don’tknow(vol) 1% 1%UnwghtN= 702 802*Differentquestionwording:“Differentpeoplehavedifferentconcernsastheylookaheadoverthenext10yearsorso.Pleasetellmeifyoupersonallyworryabouteachofthefollowingalot,some,orhardlyatall.First(RANDOMIZE)...Doyouworryaboutbeingabletoafforddecenthousingalot,some,orhardlyatall?”



$50K-<$100K

$100K-<$150K $150K+

Alot 44% 41% 49% 40% 47% 41% 48% 50% 40% 49% 33% 57% 48% 40% 33%Some 31% 35% 23% 29% 32% 28% 35% 30% 38% 29% 24% 25% 33% 34% 29%Hardlyatall 25% 23% 26% 30% 19% 30% 16% 18% 22% 22% 41% 16% 19% 26% 38%Don’tknow(vol) 0% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0%UnwghtN= 259 283 139 353 349 453 222 172 134 217 179 138 225 113 141


Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Own RentAlot 55% 47% 34% 35% 43% 38% 55%Some 27% 32% 33% 35% 28% 31% 32%Hardlyatall 17% 21% 33% 30% 26% 30% 13%Don’tknow(vol) 1% 0% 1% 0% 4% 1% 0%UnwghtN= 97 254 102 105 144 509 157


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Q. WhenpropertiesinNewJerseyaresold,asmallfeeissetasidetopayforthecreationofaffordablehomes,butinrecent years,thisfundinghasbeenusedtopayforotherprogramsinthestatebudgetinstead.Doyouthinkthestate governmentshould[ROTATE:usethesefundssolelyfortheiroriginalintentionofbuildingaffordablehomes],or[beable tousethesefundstopayforotherprogramsinthebudget]?Originalintention 79%Otherprograms 16%Don’tknow(vol) 5%UnwghtN= 693



$50K-<$100K

$100K-<$150K $150K+

OriginalIntention 82% 78% 77% 76% 82% 83% 77% 78% 74% 79% 89% 83% 79% 85% 71%Otherprograms 16% 14% 18% 18% 13% 13% 19% 18% 19% 17% 8% 13% 17% 9% 23%Don’tknow(vol) 2% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 8% 4% 3% 4% 3% 7% 5%UnwghtN= 259 278 137 346 347 448 219 171 132 213 177 136 222 112 137


Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Own RentOriginalintention 81% 77% 72% 90% 80% 79% 79%Otherprograms 13% 19% 17% 9% 16% 16% 16%Don’tknow(vol) 6% 5% 10% 1% 4% 5% 5%UnwghtN= 97 252 99 105 140 501 156


Methodology

TheRutgers-EagletonPollwasconductedbytelephoneusinglivecallersApril26toMay4,2018

withascientificallyselectedrandomsampleof704NewJerseyadults,18orolder.Persons

withoutatelephonecouldnotbeincludedintherandomselectionprocess.Respondents

withinahouseholdareselectedbyaskingrandomlyfortheyoungestadultmaleorfemale

currentlyavailable.Ifthenamedgenderisnotavailable,theyoungestadultoftheothergender

isinterviewed.ThepollwasavailableinSpanishforrespondentswhorequestedit.This

telephonepollincluded315landlineand389cellphoneadults,allacquiredthroughrandom

digitdialing.Distributionofhouseholdphoneuseinthissampleis:

CellOnly: 31%

DualUse,ReachedonCell: 24%

DualUse,ReachedonLL: 42%

LandlineOnly: 3%

ThedatawereweightedtoberepresentativeofNewJerseyadults.Theweightingbalanced

sampledemographicstopopulationparameters.Thesampleisbalancedtomatchparameters

forsex,age,education,race/ethnicity,region,andphoneuse.Thesex,age,educationand

race/ethnicityparameterswerederivedfrom2016AmericanCommunitySurveyPUMSdata.

Theregionparameterwasderivedfrom2011-2015AmericanCommunitySurvey5-Year

Estimatesbasedontotalpopulation.Thephoneuseparameterderivedfromestimates

providedbytheNationalHealthInterviewSurveyEarlyReleaseProgram.Weightingwasdone

intwostages.Thefirststageofweightingcorrectedfordifferentprobabilitiesofselection

associatedwiththenumberofadultsineachhouseholdandeachrespondent’stelephone

usagepatterns.Thisweightingalsoadjustsfortheoverlappinglandlineandcellsampleframes

andtherelativesizesofeachframeandeachsample.Thesecondstageofweightingbalanced

sampledemographicstomatchtargetpopulationparameters.Weightsweretrimmedatthe3rd

and97thpercentiletopreventindividualinterviewsfromhavingtoomuchinfluenceonthefinal

results.Theuseoftheseweightsinstatisticalanalysisensuresthatthedemographic


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characteristicsofthesamplecloselyapproximatethedemographiccharacteristicsofthetarget

population.

Allsurveysaresubjecttosamplingerror,whichistheexpectedprobabledifferencebetween

interviewingeveryoneinapopulationversusascientificsamplingdrawnfromthatpopulation.

Samplingerrorshouldbeadjustedtorecognizetheeffectofweightingthedatatobettermatch

thepopulation.Inthispoll,thesimplesamplingerrorfor704NewJerseyadultsis+/-3.7

percentagepointsata95percentconfidenceinterval.Thedesigneffectis1.37,makingthe

adjustedmarginoferror+/-4.3percentagepoints.Thusif50percentofNewJerseyadultsin

thissamplefavoraparticularposition,wewouldbe95percentsurethatthetruefigureis

between45.7and54.3percent(50+/-4.3)ifallNewJerseyadultshadbeeninterviewed,

ratherthanjustasample.

Samplingerrordoesnottakeintoaccountothersourcesofvariationinherentinpublicopinion

studies,suchasnon-response,questionwording,orcontexteffects.

ThisRutgers-EagletonPollwasfieldedbyBraunResearch,Inc.withsamplefromSurvey

SamplingInternational(SSI).Thequestionnairewasdevelopedandalldataanalyseswere

completedinhousebytheEagletonCenterforPublicInterestPolling(ECPIP).Dr.CliffZukin,

ProfessorEmeritusofPoliticalScienceandPublicPolicyandSeniorSurveyAdvisortoECPIP,

assistedwiththisquestionnaireandanalysis.WilliamYoungassistedwithanalysisand

preparationofthisreport.TheRutgers-EagletonPollispaidforandsponsoredbytheEagleton

InstituteofPoliticsatRutgers,TheStateUniversityofNewJersey,anon-partisanacademic

centerforthestudyofpoliticsandthepoliticalprocess.Thesequestionswerepaidforand

sponsoredbytheHousingandCommunityDevelopmentNetworkofNewJersey.Full

questionnairesareavailableonrequest,andcanalsobeaccessedthroughourarchivesat

eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu.Formoreinformation,[email protected].


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WeightedSampleCharacteristics704NewJerseyAdults

Male 48% Democrat 37% 18-34 26% HSorLess 33% White 58%Female 52% Independent 42% 35-49 26% SomeCollege 28% Black 12%

Republican 21% 50-64 27% CollegeGrad 22% Hispanic 19%

65+ 20% GradWork 17% Other 11%