OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE
POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
RESEARCH SUPERVISOR
Prof. Dr. Abdul Razzaq Ghumman
Member Faculty
Civil Engineering Department
UET Taxila
PREPARED BY
Irfan Yousuf
2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
Faculty of Civil & Environmental Engineering
University of Engineering and Technology
TAXILA, PAKISTAN
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
i | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
In the Name of ALLAH the most MERCIFUL and the BENEFICENT
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
ii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
iii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO
MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY
FLOW
A Dissertation submitted in partial fulfiment of the requirements for the
degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Civil Engineering
Engr. Irfan Yousuf
2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
Prof. Dr. Abdul Razzaq Ghumman
Thesis Supervisor
Prof. Dr. Muhammad Ashiq Kharal Prof. Dr. Abdul Razzaq Ghumman External Examiner External Examiner
Civil Engineering Department National Institute of Civil Engineering
(NICE)
University of Engg. and Tech., Lahore National University of Science &
Technology (NUST)
Department of Civil Engineering
Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
iv | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
DECLARATION
I, Irfan Yousuf, hereby state that my PhD thesis titled ―Optimally Locating the Small
Hydro Units to Maximize Power Production under Uncertainty Flow‖ is my own
work and has not been submitted previously by me for taking any degree from the
University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila or anywhere else in the
country/world. At any time if my statement is found to be incorrect even after my
Graduate, the university has the right to withdraw my PhD degree.
Irfan Yousuf
24th
February, 2017
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
v | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
PLAGIARISM UNDERTAKING
I solemnly declare that research work presented in the thesis titled ―Optimally
Locating the Small Hydro Units to Maximize Power Production under Uncertainty
Flow‖ is solely my research work with no significant contribution from any other
person. Small contribution.help wherever taken has been duly acknowledged and that
complete thesis has been written by me.
I understand zero tolerance policy of the HEC and University of Engineering and
Technology, Taxila towards plagiarism. Therefore, I as an Author of the above titled
thesis declare that no portion of my thesis has been plagiarized and any material used
as reference is properly referred/cited.
I undertake that if I am found guilty of any formal plagiarism in the above titled thesis
even after award of PhD degree, the University reserves the rights to withdraw/revoke
my PhD degree, and that HEC and the University has the right to publish my name on
the HEC/Univeristy Website on which, names of students are placed who submitted
plagiarized thesis.
Irfan Yousuf
24th
February, 2017
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
vi | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This research work has taken into consideration impacts of climate changes on water
resources as uncertainty in sizing, locating and decision making in site selection for
SHPPs taking Chitral, Pakistan as study area. Initially, historical climate data of
Chitral and hydrological data of Chitral River was analyzed that indicated that the
temperature between 1984-2013 had already increased by 0.8˚C and precipitation
between 1989-2013 had decreased by 4.7%.
Afterwards, future climate data (temperature and precipitation) was downscale using
LARS WG 5 Statistical Model from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under A1B
Emission Scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The data
indicated increase the precipitation in study area would decline during period 2011-30
and 2046-65, and would slightly improve during 2080-99 with variation in
precipitation pattern, whereas, temperature would continuously rise.
Subsequently, HEC-HMS hydrological model was used to determine future river
flows. Results indicated reduction trend in the future average annual water flows of
Chitral River by 16.83% in 2014-30, 25.03% in 2046-2065 and 22.02% in 2080-2099
as compared to average annual flows for the period 1989-2013.
Then, Chitral SHP was selected as optimal site using Multi-objective Decision
Making and Fuzzy Logic. This followed by designing SHPP that indicated that 49.6
MW would be appropriate size at the selected location based on 32% pe of Qdes and
Q‘n on FD Curve. Afterwards, impacts of variability of flows due to climate changes
on power production capacities were determined. Results indicated reduction in the
power generation capacities due to reduction in flows by 0.36%, 6.25% and 4.08%
during 2014-30, 2046-65, and 2080-99 respectively.
The research work concluded that climate change impacts should be taken into
account to optimally locate and size small hydropower plants to maximize power
production under uncertainty in flow.
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
vii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
PREFACE
Pakistan is a semi-arid country that has extreme climates i.e. very hot summer and
very cold winter. The geographical features of the country are diverse; the country
consists of high mountains (mountains systems in the North, center, North-West and
South-West), plateaus in the center, and South-West), plains, deserts and a long
coastline. Each geographic location is characterized with different climatic conditions;
some regions are very cold and some are very hot while some of them remain
moderate the whole year. However, the historical data indicates that the precipitation
in this region is also less as compared to adjoining areas. The country is blessed with
a river water system, which is the main source of meeting water requirements for
agriculture, and carries huge potential for generation of hydropower.
Because of diverse climatic conditions, the vulnerability index of climate change in
Pakistan is very high as compared to most of the countries around the globe. In recent
years, the country has faced climatic changes like increase in temperature, change in
precipitation pattern, weather shift, occurrence of floods and earthquakes etc. Pakistan
though is not the major contributor to the emissions that have resulted in creating
climate change, but owing to its high vulnerability index, the requirement for its
adaptation to new changes is very high.
The global phenomenon of climate change has affected the whole of Pakistan in a
different manner. Pakistan is facing worse climatic vulnerabilities that are causing
huge threats to its economy. Various climate changes like temperature variations,
precipitation quantity and intensity, precipitation pattern, relative humidity, solar
radiations have been recorded in Pakistan. These climate changes are causing
unexpected floods and droughts, extremities in the temperatures and giving rise to
relatively higher heat waves in summers. This is also causing snow-melt and glacier-
melt in the north, which is a major threat to the sweet water reserves of the country.
During the last decade, Pakistan has witnessed worse power crises. Despite economic
growth, the electricity generation, transmission and distribution capacity of the
country could not be enhanced due to various reasons. Eventually, the government is
finding it difficult to meet existing electricity demand. Due to this, power cuts and
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
viii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
rotational load shedding have become part of everyday life. Efforts are being made to
cut short the load shedding, but there is still a long way to go. Hydropower, which is a
source of clean, low cost, renewable energy was once major source of electricity in
the country and has potential of meeting electricity requirements of the country, could
not be developed at required pace, rather dependency on fossil fuel based power
generation increased. At the same time, Pakistan also has seen water scarcity crises.
Major contributors towards this dilemma are the global and regional climate changes
and indecisive policies, initiatives and programs to develop and construct water
storage facilities like large dams.
Pakistan mainly relies upon Indus River System for meeting water requirements in
agriculture and energy sector. The availability of flow in the Indus River System is
pivotal for sustainable economic growth, food security and reliable electricity supply.
The long term security of water availability and hydropower generation for Pakistan
depends upon continuous flow of the rivers of Indus Basin originating from Hindu
Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH). The HKH region is very susceptible to the effects
of climate change. The variability of flows in the rivers and streams and improbability
to predict future flows due to climate changes is making it difficult to make decision
for site selection for small-medium-large hydropower plants, work out and locate
appropriate probability of exceedance (pe) on the Flow-Duration (FD) Curve that
would enable optimally utilizing maximum available flow to generate electricity and
optimally size hydropower plants of all magnitudes including micro, mini, small,
medium and large.
In this research work, I have endeavoured to investigate a solution to the problems
stated above. During research work, I noticed that this is a gigantic task to suggest a
solution to this problem that could have global applicability. In due course of research
I found out that the pattern of impacts of climate changes varies considerably in
different river basins all over the globe; even, this varies within one region. Taking
into account more than one river basins not only required large span of time, but also
needing huge funding. I therefore took Chitral River in the Kabul Basin in Upper
Indus Region, Pakistan as study area to build on my case.
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
ix | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
This research work is unique as none of the researchers have so far touched upon the
identified issues. Further, to strengthen my hypothesis, I have used state-of-the-art
climate models, hydrological models and hydropower simulation models to model the
Chitral River and the selected sites at one time and study the impact of climate
changes over small hydropower generation. In due course of my research, I gained
inimitable knowledge, experience and understanding of climate changing scenarios
and their probable impacts, based on which, I built my thesis to propose solution to
the problem under discussion.
In this research work, I have attempted to cover every aspect to the extent possible,
but there can be a possibility that some aspects are not treated the way it should have
been which could probably be owing to inherent limitations. But, I feel confident that
through this research work I have achieved my objective and I am certain that this
piece of research will be useful for researchers, developers, policy makers and
investors alike.
Irfan Yousuf
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
x | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I am much thankful to Allah who bestowed me with knowledge, wisdom and courage
to complete this research work.
Though patterns of climate changes and their impacts on different aspects have been
studied globally as well as in different parts of Pakistan, various researchers also have
studied impacts of climate changes on river flow in Chitral River. Most of these
studies have focused on historical data, and future projections for river flow are not
made. Further, impacts of climate changes on small hydropower generation have not
been studied elsewhere. This research work is therefore unique and novel. In this
research work, future projections for flows in Chitral River were made using global
circulation models and hydrological model, and impacts on small hydropower plants
were studied based on the output. This research work also has suggested methodology
to size the small hydropower plants considering future projected flows. I am confident
that this research work will facilitate in developing small hydropower projects with
higher degree of confidence and ensuring better energy outputs in future under
confluence of climate changes.
Close supervision, technical assistance, guidance, sincere affection, moral support and
dedication are important ingredients for success in an endeavor. In my case, added
aspects like continuous push, strict follow up, increasing moral and temptation to
deliver also played a vital role in completing this research work. My trust in Allah and
His spiritual support and guidance has shown me path of success. I believe that Allah
chose me to carry out this research work and with His Will, I became able to
undertake this work. He showed me path and He created so many helping hands for
me that resulted even in turning the stones.
I give full credit to the family that has been a continuous support during course of my
research work. My family has remained as a strong pillar upon which I can
confidently lean and fight for my success. My father, Mr. Majid-ul-Hassan Yousuf
has been a source of inspiration, guidance, spiritual support and my temptation
towards success. His wisdom, intellect and knowledge always show me right path in
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xi | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
darkness. My family has supported me in this research work and without them, this
success would not have been possible.
My supervisor, Prof. Dr. Abdul Razzaq Ghumman has been a key individual, without
whom, I feel, I would have never been able to undertake this research work. He has
showed his confidence in me to consider taking me under his supervision for this
research work, supervised me, and provided guidance, every kind of support and
temptation to undertake this research work. It was his strict follow-up that made me
accomplish various activities to conduct this research work in a timely manner. I
would also like to admit the support, guidance and confidence shown by Dr. Hashim
Nisar Hashmi, Professor, Civil Engineering Department, UET, Taxila, who helped me
in conceiving this research idea and being enrolled in this research work. His initial
support had played a vital role in my success during PhD studies.
Technical assistance and support in providing raw historical data was a key to run
model and carry out research work. The support of Mr. Naveed and Mr. Asif from
CDPC, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Karachi Office (for
meteorological data) and Mr. Muhammad Bilal from Water and Power Development
Authority (SWH-WAPDA) is memorable. They have been very kind in providing
required data as and when it was needed.
Dr. Muhammad Zia Ur Rahman Hashmi, Head Climate Changes Section in Global
Change Impact Study Centre (GCISC) has been a big support in this research work.
With his guidance and support, I learnt to run the global circulation models,
downscale data using LARS-WG and extract the results for the study area. His
support in writing research papers has been laudable.
I would also like to highlight moral support and mental encouragement showed by
Mr. Irfan Afzal Mirza, Ex-DG, AEDB / CEO, Renewable Resources (Pvt.) Ltd. He is
my mentor and he has always been there to support me in any way I needed. I would
also like to highlight support of Mrs. Sana Amin, CEO, EcoChange (Pvt.) Ltd. who
really helped me at a time when it was desperately needed in GIS modeling. Mr.
Mehroze Rafique, Assistant Director, NEPRA and Ms. Aymen Ayaz, Executive
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
Junior, AEDB are two more key persons among several others who have been a
helping hand in my research work.
I would also like to extend my gratitude, sincere thanks and appreciation to my
colleagues, friends, seniors, relatives and buddies who, in one way or the other, have
supported me during my research tenure.
I must state that at the time of completion of this research work, technical input,
assistance, support and encouragement of my supervisors, family, friends, colleagues
and relatives is unforgettable. I recognize all this support, kindness, sincerity,
affection and coaching from the core of my heart. Defiantly, all these affiliations and
expertise groomed my abilities to make this research work even better.
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xiii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
DEDICATION
To Almighty Allah, without whose Will and Support, this research work would have
never been possible. To Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) my real mentor in life. To my
parents who encouraged me, guided me and always remained there to face this world.
Especially to my late mother, it is all because of her prayers and support that has
made this success a reality for me. I have faith that my mother keeps on praying for
my success even in the heaven which has transpired into achieving this goal which, in
actual, was her dream. To my wife, who is the true companion and best friend and a
real strength of my life. To my supervisor and teachers, who groomed me to learn
better and to contribute better using best of my abilities for the betterment of society.
And to all progenitors, friends, family members, colleagues and others who
participated, in one way or the other, for new horizons of knowledge and wisdom.
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xiv | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
ABSTRACT
The scientific studies and various researches have indicated that global climate
change trend is resulting in changes in precipitation and temperature. Variations in
precipitation and temperature are threatening global fresh water resources. The
glaciers are melting and overall quantum of precipitation is decreasing due to which,
availability of fresh water is going to decline in future. In addition to this, due to
changes in precipitation patterns and increase in winter temperatures, the flow
patterns in rivers and streams are also altering. The variation in river flows is also a
point of concern for locating, sizing, designing, planning and operations of
hydropower plants.
Small hydropower is a promising source of clean energy that is sustainable,
affordable, economically viable and environmental friendly. Optimal performance of
the small hydropower plant and maximum possible utilization of flow to generate
electricity is dependent upon quantum of available flow throughout the year. Global
climate changes and their impacts, particularly on river and stream flows are making
it too difficult to ascertain the available flow. This is affecting decision-making
process for site selection for small hydropower plants, locate appropriate Probability
of Exceedance (pe) for design flow, size small hydropower plants based on design
flow and estimate power generation throughout the plant life. Due to this, it is
becoming difficult to optimally size small hydropower plants and predict their
performance during operations.
In this research work, future river flow of Chitral River was predicted under climate
change scenarios, mechanism was established to improve decision making in site
selection for small hydropower generation, locate appropriate pe for plant sizing, work
out optimal size of the small hydropower plants and estimate power production
capacity. Chitral River in Upper Indus Region, Pakistan is selected as study area for
the research work. Initially, it was intended to extend the scope of the research work
to upper Indus Basin, however, due to time constraint, data constraint and limitation
of funds, the focus was limited to Chitral River.
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xv | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
In order to undertake this research work, historical data including climatic data of
Chitral for the period 1984-2013 was obtained from Pakistan Meteorological
Department and water flows data of Chitral River in Chitral for the period 1989-2013
was obtained from Water and Power Development Authority. This research work has
used LARS WG 5 Model to downscale future temperature and precipitation data from
MPEH5 Global Circulation Model (GCM) for a period up to 2099 under Special
Report of Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2 as that were used by the
Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) under its fourth assessment
report of climate change published in 2007 i.e. AR4. For analysis, future projections
made under A1B scenario was used deeming that in future, efficient technologies will
be introduced, reliance upon fossil fuel based power generation will be reduced and
other supply options and end-use technologies including clean technologies will be
developed. HEC-HMS model was used to determine future river flows in Chitral
River. The historic and future river flows were used to size small hydropower plant
using RETScreen 4.1 model. Multiple Objective Decision Making Methodology
(MODM) was used to decide upon the optimum site and size of the small hydropower
plants.
The results of climate modeling under A1B scenario indicated that the precipitation in
Chitral is going to decline during the period 2011-30, 2046-65, and 2080-99,
however, during the period 2080-99 a slight improvement was seen as compared to
other two periods. The predictions for temperature under A1B scenario indicated
continuous rise during the period 2011-30, 2046-65, and 2080-99. Results of HEC-
HMS indicated a declining trend in the future average annual water flows of Chitral
River during the periods 2014-30, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099.However, during 2080-
99 a slight improvement in river flows as compared to 2014-30 and 2046-65 was
seen. This research determined that there would be 16.8% reduction in river flows
simulated for 2011-30, 25.0% for 2046-65 and 22.0% for 2080-99 as compared to
historical flows during 1989-2013. This trend was matching with the trend of
precipitation in the region.
The MODM was used in improving decision-making process for site selection for
small hydropower plants. For that purpose, four alternate small hydropower sites in
Chitral River, Chitral were analyzed taking into consideration climate, hydrology,
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xvi | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
technological, environment and safety factors. Based on outcomes, the Chitral Small
Hydropower Site was selected as optimal site among the four selected alternatives at
Chitral River.
The historical and future predicted available flow data was used to determine impact
of variation of flows on power generation capacity of the small hydropower plant. The
analysis indicated that the declining trend of the flow in Chitral River will result in
reduction of power generation capacities i.e. there will be 0.36% impact on yearly
power generation due to river flow changes simulated for 2014-30, 6.25% for 2046-65
and 4.08% for 2080-99. It was inferred from the research that in order to optimally
utilize future available flow in rivers like Chitral River for power generation, the pe of
design flow on Flow Duration Curve (FD Curve) should be between 32-40%.
RETScreen 4.1 software was used to determine appropriate sizes of small hydropower
plants based on historical and future predicted flows. The outcomes were analyzed
using MODM for improved decision making in selecting optimal size of the small
hydropower plants. The results concluded that 49.60 MW would be the most optimal
size of the small hydropower plant that will produce maximum electricity under future
projected flows at the area under study.
This research work has presented a new dimension before the planners, designers and
decision makers and has recommended that while designing, locating and sizing small
hydropower plants the future predicted climate conditions and river flows should be
taken into account in addition to the historical records at a time when the decision-
making is done for locating and sizing small hydropower plants to ensure better
performance. With this, impacts of climate changes on water resources and climate
can be largely taken care of.
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xvii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
ABBREVIATIONS AND NOTATIONS
Abbreviation Description
AEDB Alternative Energy Development Board
AHP Analytic Hierarchy Process
ANFIS Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
ANN Artificial Neural Network
AR4 Fourth assessment report of climate change published by IPCC
in 2007
AR5 Fifth assessment report of climate change published by IPCC in
2014
CCA Canonical Correlation Analysis
CCVI Climate Change Vulnerability Index
CDPC
CLIMSAVE Climate Change Integrated Assessment Methodology for
Cross-Sector Adaptation Vulnerability in Europe
CORDEX Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment
CR Customer Requirements
DBM Decision Based Matrix
DEM Digital Elevation Model
DM Decision Making / Decision Maker / Decision Matrix
DR Design Requirements
EBM Energy Balance Models
EOF Empirical Orthogonal Function
FD Flow-Duration
FDCs Flow Duration Curves
FFA Flood Frequency Analysis
FST Fuzzy set theory
GCISC Global Change Impact Study Centre
GCM Global Circulation Model
GCRI Global Climate Risk Index
GDP Gross Domestic Production
GHG Greenhouse Gases
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xviii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
Abbreviation Description
GIS Geographic Information System
GLOF Glacial lake outburst flooding
GoP Government of Pakistan
H2O Dihydrogen Monoxide (Water)
HCCs Hydrographs, Hydropower Complex Charts
HEC-HDS Hydrologic Engineering Centre - Data Storage System
HEC-HMS Hydrologic Engineering Centre - Hydrologic Modelling System
HKH Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya
HPP Hydropower Plant
HSPF Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPPG Integrated Planning for Power Generation
IRS Indus River System
KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
LARS-WG Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator
LCA Life Cycle Analysis
LMS Least Mean Square
MCDA Multi Criteria Decision Analysis
MOCC Ministry of Climate Change
MoCC Ministry of Climate Change
MODM Multiple Objective Decision Making Methodology
MOSAICC Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change
NDSI Normalized Difference Snow Index
NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority
NIS Negative Ideal Solution
NS Nash-Sutcliffe
PBUH Peace be Upon Him
PEDO Pakhtunkhwa Energy Development Organization
PIS Positive Ideal Solution
PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department
PPIB Private Power and Infrastructure Board
QFD Quality Function Deployment
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xix | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
Abbreviation Description
RCM Radiative-Convective Model / Regional Climate Model
RCP Representative Concentration Pathways
RMSE Root Mean Square Error
SDM Statistical Dynamical Model
SHP Small Hydropower Plant
SLP Sea Level Pressure
SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios
SRM Snowmelt Runoff Model
SWH Surface Water Hydrology
TF Transfer Functions
TFN Triangular fuzzy numbers
TFPW Trend-Free Pre-Whitening
TOPSIS Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution
UET University of Engineering and Technology
UIB Upper Indus Basin
VIKOR Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje
VMP Vector Maximum Problem
WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority
WG Weather Generators
WT Weather Typing
Notations Description
k TFN
AD Drainage Area
Ak Assess Location
k Defuzzified Number
Bmk Benefit-criteria normalization
⁰C Degree Centigrade
cms Cubic meter per second
CO2 Carbon Dioxide
cp Specific heat capacity of air (Jkg−1
K−1
)
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xx | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
Notations Description
Soil Water Storage
e Exponential
Eavail Annual available energy (in kWh/yr)
Edlv Annual delivered energy (in kWh/yr)
eg Generator efficiency
et Turbine efficiency at flow Q
ET Water volume evapotranspiration (mm s−1
)
t des Turbine efficiency at design flow
FI Fuzzy Index
g Acceleration of gravity (9.81 m/s2)
G Ground heat flux (W m−2
)
ga Conductivity of air, (ms−1
)
gs Conductivity of stoma, surface conductance (ms−1
)
GW Giga Watt
Havail Available Head
Hg Gross Head
hydr Design head/hydraulic head
tail Tailrace Head
tail max Maximum tail-water effect
Jday Julian day taken as either start of the spring or fall pulse
k Parameter used to control steep of the flow pulse
K Capacity factor
Kg Kilo gram
kgoeq Kilo gram of oil equivalent
km Kilo meter
Km2
Square Kilo Meters
kW Kilo Watt
ldt Annual downtime losses
hydr hydraulic loss
lpara Parasitic electricity losses
LR Rating of the Location
ltrans Transformer losses
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxi | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
Notations Description
m Meter
m2
Square Meter
MAF Million Acre Feet
map Maximum precipitation values
masl Meter above sea level
mat Maximum temperature values
Max Maximum
Min Minimum
mip Minimum precipitation values
mit Minimum temperature values
MtCO2e Million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
MW Mega Watt
n Number of daily discharge values
Number of readings
np Normalized precipitation data
N Number /Values
NS Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient
p Precipitation data to be normalized
des Plant design capacity
pe Probability of exceedance
density of water (1,000 kg/m3)
ρa dry air density (kgm−3
)
̅ Mean flow
Q(t) General flow regimes
Q‘I Simulated daily discharge
n Available flow / firm flow
Qavg Average daily flow for the simulation year or simulation season
Qdes Design dflow
Qmax Maximum river flow
Qmin Minimum river flow
Qn Actual flow
Qi Measured daily flow
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
Notations Description
qn normalized flow
Flow pulses
Qpulse, fall Flow Pulse in Fall
Qpulse, spr Flow Pulse in Spring
Qr Residual flow
Rainfall rate
R Specific runoff
R2 Root Mean Square
Re Regression
i Relative Closeness
Rn Net irradiance (W m−2
)
rn Decision Weights
i- Negative Separation
i
Positive Separation
sq.km Square kilometer
SQRT Square Root
SQSUM Square Sum
T Time periods
Temp Temperature
tm Weibull location parameter
US $ United States Dollar
W Transformation to water-year dates that begin on Julian day
274
Weight
p Aggregate Weight
Xmodel Modeled values at time/place i
Xobs Observed values
γ Psychometric constant (γ ≈ 66 PaK−1
)
Δ Rate of change of saturation specific humidity with air
temperature (Pa K−1
)
δe Vapor pressure deficit, or specific humidity(Pa)
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxiii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
Table of Contents
DECLARATION ......................................................................................................... iv
PLAGIARISM UNDERTAKING .................................................................................v
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................... vi
PREFACE ................................................................................................................... vii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .............................................................................................x
DEDICATION ........................................................................................................... xiii
ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................... xiv
ABBREVIATIONS AND NOTATIONS ................................................................. xvii
CHAPTER NO. 1. INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Motivation for the Research Work 7
1.3 Problem Statement 9
1.4 Research Objectives and Methodologies 10
1.4.1. Research Objectives ...............................................................................10
1.4.2. Research Outcome .................................................................................11
1.4.3. Research Publications ............................................................................11
1.4.4. Originality and Novelty of Research Work ...........................................12
1.4.5. Usefulness of Research Work ................................................................13
1.4.6. Research Activities and Methodology ...................................................13
1.5 Thesis Layout 19
CHAPTER NO. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................22
2.1 Background 22
2.2 Global Climate Models and Their Usage 23
2.2.1 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) ...................................26
2.2.2 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRESs) ....................................26
2.2.3 Modelling the Climatic Response in GCMs ..........................................27
2.2.4 Confidence and Validation of GCMs ....................................................30
2.2.5 The Fundamental Equations Used in GCMs .........................................31
2.2.6 Projections Made by GCMs ...................................................................33
2.2.7 Advantages and Disadvantages of Climate Models...............................35
2.3 Hydrological Modelling and Hydropower Simulations 36
2.3.1 Hydrological Modelling .........................................................................36
2.3.2 Hydrological Models .............................................................................37
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxiv | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
2.4 Hydropower Simulations —Power Generations 38
2.4.1 Hydropower Simulations .......................................................................39
2.5 The Variability and Uncertainty in Global Climate and Hydrology 40
2.6 Risk and Uncertainty in Water Resource Management and Small
Hydropower Generation 42
2.7 Estimating the Extent and Duration of Uncertainty 43
2.7.1 Model uncertainty ..................................................................................44
2.7.2 Nonstationarity .......................................................................................44
2.8 Discussion 45
CHAPTER NO. 3. CLIMATE CHANGES AND THEIR IMPACTS WITHIN
CONTEXT OF CHITRAL, PAKISTAN .....................................................................47
3.1 Background 47
3.2 Global Climate Changes Trend 49
3.3 Impacts of Global Climate Changes 49
3.4 Developing Climate Scenarios for Estimating Future Climate 51
3.4.1 Emission Scenarios to Predict Future Climate Changes ........................52
3.4.2 GCMs versus RCMs ..............................................................................53
3.5 Downscaling Data from GCMs 54
3.5.1 Dynamic Downscaling ...........................................................................54
3.5.2 Statistical Downscaling ..........................................................................54
3.5.3 Tools Used for Downscaling .................................................................56
3.6 Assessing Impact of Climate Changes at Study Area 58
3.7 Data and Analysis of Climate Change Impact Study 59
3.8 Outcomes of the Climate Change Impacts Study 61
3.8.1 Historical Climatic Trend Analysis .......................................................61
3.8.2 Future Climatic Trend Analysis .............................................................67
3.9 Comparative Analysis between Fuzzy Model and GCMs for Predicting
Future Temperature and Precipitation 78
3.9.1 Fuzzy Set Theory ...................................................................................78
3.9.2 Fuzzy Modeling and Fuzzy Optimization..............................................79
3.9.3 Predicting Temperature and Precipitation Using Fuzzy Logic ..............81
3.9.4 Outcomes ...............................................................................................90
3.10 Anticipated Impacts of Climate Changes 91
3.11 Discussion 92
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxv | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
CHAPTER NO. 4. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON WATER
RESOURCES IN CHITRAL RIVER BASIN, PAKISTAN .......................................95
4.1 Background 95
4.2 Global Climate Change Drivers 96
4.2.1 Key Global Climate Change Drivers .....................................................96
4.3 The Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources 97
4.3.1 Global Purview of Impacts of Climate Changes on Water Resources ..98
4.3.2 Impacts of Climate Changes in Himalayas ..........................................100
4.4 Modelling Impacts of Climate Changes on Water Resources 102
4.4.1 Hydrological Modeling and Water Resources .....................................102
4.5 Hydrological Modeling Process for Future Projections 104
4.5.1 Climate Data Predictions (Temperature and Precipitation) .................104
4.5.2 Climate Change Impact Assessment on Hydrology ............................105
4.5.3 Uncertainties in Climate Change Impact Assessment .........................105
4.5.4 Flow Optimization ...............................................................................105
4.6 Assessing Impact of Climate Changes on Water Resources in the Study Area
Using Hydrologic Modeling 105
4.7 Data and Analysis to Assess Impact of Climate Changes on Water Resources
108
4.8 Outcomes of the Hydrological Modeling to Assess Impacts of Climate
Change on Water Resources 110
4.8.1 Historical Hydrological Trend Analysis ..............................................110
4.8.2 Hydrological Modeling to Assess Water Flow Variations in Future ...112
4.9 Comparative Analysis between Fuzzy Model and Hydrologic Models for
Predicting Future Flows 144
4.9.1 Fuzzy Modeling and Fuzzy Optimization............................................146
4.9.2 Predicting Future Flows Using Fuzzy Logic .......................................147
4.9.3 Using Fuzzy Logic to Predict Future Flows in Chitral River ..............148
4.9.4 Outcomes .............................................................................................158
4.10 Anticipated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources 159
4.10.1 Extremes: Floods and Droughts ...........................................................159
4.10.2 Arid and Semi-Arid Environments ......................................................159
4.10.3 Cold Environments: Snow, Glaciers and Permafrost ..........................159
4.10.4 Water Quality .......................................................................................160
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxvi | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
4.10.5 Erosion and Sedimentation ..................................................................160
4.10.6 Urban Settlements ................................................................................161
4.10.7 Biodiversity ..........................................................................................162
4.10.8 Groundwater ........................................................................................162
4.10.9 The Impact of Land Use Change and Population Growth on Water
Resources ............................................................................................................162
4.10.10 The Impact of Socio-Political Dynamics on Water Resources ............162
4.11 Discussion 163
CHAPTER NO. 5. LOCATING SMALL HYDROPOWER PLANTS TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGES DURING DECISION
MAKING ....................................................................................................167
5.1. Background 167
5.2. Hydropower Generation – A Global Perspective 168
5.3. Hydropower Generation with Special Focus on Small Hydropower 170
5.4. Impacts of Climate Changes on Hydropower Generation 172
5.5. Limitations in Small Hydropower Plants 174
5.6. Decision Making for Site Selection for Small Hydropower Plant 175
5.7. Multi-Objective Decision-Making Methodology (MODM) – A Tool for
Effective Decision Making 176
5.7.1. MODM/MCDM Methods used in Water Resources and Renewable
Energy Problems.................................................................................................180
5.7.2. Steps Involved in Decision Making Process Using MODM ...............182
5.8 Using Multiple Objective Decision Making Methodology for Locating Small
Hydropower Plants under Climate Changes Scenarios 183
5.8.1. Small Hydropower Sites Assessed.......................................................184
5.8.2. Important Factors for Locating Small Hydropower Plants ..................187
5.8.3. MODM Analysis and Results for Site Selection for Small Hydropower
Plants ..............................................................................................................190
5.9 Scenario Analysis 197
5.9.1. Secenario-1: Decision Making in Site Selection for Small Hydropower
Plant Excluding Environmental Factors .............................................................197
5.9.2. Secenario-2: Decision Making in Site Selection for Small Hydropower
Plant Excluding Climate Changing Factors ........................................................203
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxvii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
5.10. Comparative Analysis to use Fuzzy sets theory for Decision Making in Site
Selection for Small Hydropower Plant 209
5.10.1. Modeling for Fuzzy Set Theory for Site Selection for Small
Hydropower ........................................................................................................210
5.11 Discussion 217
CHAPTER NO. 6. OPTIMALLY SIZING SMALL HYDROPOWER PROJECT TO
MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER FUTURE PROJECTED FLOWS 219
6.1 Background 219
6.2 Impacts of Climate Changes on Small Hydropower Generation 221
6.3 Review of Existing Global Studies 222
6.4 Sizing Small Hydropower Plants under Uncertainty of Flows Due to Climate
Changes at the Study Area 224
6.5 Description of Models and Methods Used 226
6.5.1 RETScreen 4.1 Software for Small Hydropower Simulations ............227
6.6 Data and Analysis to Size Small Hydropower Plants under Future Projected
Flows 227
6.7 Outcomes of the Modeling, Analysis and Research 230
6.7.1 River Flow Analysis to Predict Optimal Flow Values .........................230
6.7.2 Uncertainty Analysis for Predicted River Flow and Hydropower
Generation ..........................................................................................................231
6.7.3 Locating Optimal Probability of Exceedance (pe) at FD Curve for
Optimal Sizing of Small Hydropower Plant under Uncertainty of Flow ...........238
6.7.4 Determination of Design Head / Hydraulic Head ................................241
6.7.5 Selection of Turbine .............................................................................241
6.7.6 Power Analysis to Assess Predicted Power Generation Capacity .......242
6.7.7 Energy Generation Analysis to Assess Energy Generation Capacity ..246
6.7.8 Financial Viability Analysis of Selected Turbine Sizes ......................248
6.7.9 Use of Multi Objective Decision-Making Methodology for Optimal
Sizing the Small Hydropower Plant ...................................................................249
6.8 Inference of Study to Optimally Locating and Sizing the Small Hydropower
Plants Under Future Projected Flows 257
6.9 Discussion 259
CHAPTER NO. 7. Uncertainty in Predicting Future Flows for Small Hydropower
Generation ....................................................................................................261
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxviii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
7.1. Background 261
7.2. Sources of Uncertainties in Water Management and Small Hydropower
Generation 264
7.2.1 Climate Data Collection Uncertainties ................................................264
7.2.2 Hydrological Data Collection Uncertainties ........................................265
7.2.3 Glacier melting / retreat Related Uncertainties ....................................266
7.2.4 Hydrological Model Uncertainties for predicting flows ......................269
7.2.5 Uncertainties in Quantification of GHG Emissions.............................272
7.2.6 Uncertainties related to Global Circulation Models and Regional
Climate Models to Predict Climate Changes ......................................................272
7.2.7 Hydropower Simulation Uncertainties ................................................273
7.2.8 Uncertainties in Government Policies .................................................274
7.3. How uncertainty and risk affect decision-making 274
7.3.1 Need for data to Ascertain Uncertainty ...............................................275
7.4. Measures to reduce impacts of uncertainties 276
7.4.1 Using long-term data for Predictions ...................................................276
7.4.2 Addressing Uncertainties related to the System ..................................276
7.4.3 Importance of Non-quantifiable Factors ..............................................277
7.4.4 Scenarios Analysis for better perspective ............................................277
7.4.5 Improving Understanding during Decision Making ............................278
7.4.6 Evaluation Processes for Better Decision Making...............................278
7.4.7 Improving Design Procedures for Water Resources and Power
Generation ..........................................................................................................279
7.4.8 Precautionary principle ........................................................................279
7.4.9 Multiplicity ..........................................................................................280
7.4.10 Handling Risk and Uncertainty While Decision Making ....................280
7.4.11 Options to Strategize Handling Uncertainty ........................................281
7.5. Discussion 282
CHAPTER NO. 8. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......................283
8.1. Conclusion 283
8.2. Recommendations 286
REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................289
APPENDICES ...............................................................................................................1
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxix | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
List of Tables
Table 2-1: List of Global Circulation Models Used in the AR4 .................................. 25
Table 2-2: Scenario Story Lines and Their Descriptions ............................................. 27
Table 2-3: Some Hydrological Models Used in Climate Change Impacts .................. 37
Table 2-4: Some Small Hydropower Simulation Models being used globally ........... 39
Table 3-1: Location Details of PMD Hydro-Meteorological Station in Chitral .......... 62
Table 4-1: Models with Categorization used to Simulate Parameters for Chitral Basin
.................................................................................................................................... 113
Table 4-2: Initial and Optimized Values of Hydrologic Parameters for Chitral Basin
.................................................................................................................................... 115
Table 4-3: Comparison between Observed and Computed Values ........................... 116
Table 4-4: Comparison between Observed and Computed Values ........................... 117
Table 4-5: Comparison between Observed and Computed Values ........................... 119
Table 4-6: Comparison between Observed and Computed Values ........................... 120
Table 4-7: Values of the Input Parameters Varying + 4% from Optimal .................. 121
Table 4-8: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying
Constant Rate ............................................................................................................. 122
Table 4-9: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying Max
Deficit ........................................................................................................................ 123
Table 4-10: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying
Canopy Max Storage.................................................................................................. 125
Table 4-11: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying
Surface Max Storage .................................................................................................. 126
Table 4-12: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying
Synder Peak Coeffient ............................................................................................... 127
Table 4-13: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying
Synder Standard Lag .................................................................................................. 129
Table 4-14: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying
Temp Coldrate ........................................................................................................... 130
Table 4-15: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying
Temp Meltrate ............................................................................................................ 131
Table 4-16: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying
Base Temp ................................................................................................................. 133
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxx | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
Table 4-17: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying
Ground Meltrate ......................................................................................................... 134
Table 4-18: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying
Liquid WC ................................................................................................................. 135
Table 4-19: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying PX
Temp .......................................................................................................................... 137
Table 4-20: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying Rain
Rate ............................................................................................................................ 138
Table 4-21: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by Varying Wet
Meltrate ...................................................................................................................... 139
Table 4-22: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Computed by VaryingAll
Parameters .................................................................................................................. 141
Table 5-1: Small Hydropower Definition in Different Countries .............................. 171
Table 5-2: Small Hydropower Project Site Selection ................................................ 184
Table 5-3: Decision Matrix ........................................................................................ 191
Table 5-4: Pair-Wise Comparison Matrix .................................................................. 192
Table 5-5: Normalized Matrix ................................................................................... 192
Table 5-6: Weights of the Factors Defining Criteria and Their Ranking .................. 192
Table 5-7: Matrix of Score ......................................................................................... 195
Table 5-8: Ranking of Small Hydropower Plant Sites............................................... 195
Table 5-9: Normalized Decision Matrix .................................................................... 195
Table 5-10: Weighted Normalized Decision Matrix ................................................. 196
Table 5-11: Euclidean Distance (Separation Measures) ............................................ 196
Table 5-12: TOPSIS Method Rank, Relative Closeness ........................................... 196
Table 5-13: Small Hydropower Project Site Selection .............................................. 198
Table 5-14: Decision Matrix ...................................................................................... 198
Table 5-15: Pair-Wise Comparison Matrix ................................................................ 198
Table 5-16: Normalize Matrix ................................................................................... 199
Table 5-17: Weights of the Factors Defining Criteria and Their Ranking ................ 199
Table 5-18: Matrix of Score ....................................................................................... 201
Table 5-19: Ranking of Small Hydropower Plant Sites............................................. 201
Table 5-20: Normalized Decision Matrix .................................................................. 201
Table 5-21: Waited Normalized Decision Matrix ..................................................... 201
Table 5-22: Euclidean Distance (Separation Measures) ............................................ 202
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxxi | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
Table 5-23: TOPSIS Method Rank, Relative Closeness ........................................... 202
Table 5-24: Small Hydropower Project Site Selection .............................................. 203
Table 5-25: Decision Matrix ...................................................................................... 203
Table 5-26: Pair-Wise Comparison Matrix ................................................................ 204
Table 5-27: Normalized Matrix ................................................................................. 204
Table 5-28: Weights of the Factors defining Criteria and Their Ranking ................. 204
Table 5-29: Matrix of Score ....................................................................................... 205
Table 5-30: Ranking of Small Hydropower Plant Sites............................................. 205
Table 5-31: Normalized Decision Matrix .................................................................. 205
Table 5-32: Waited Normalized Decision Matrix ..................................................... 207
Table 5-33: Euclidean Distance (Separation Measures) ............................................ 207
Table 5-34: TOPSIS Method Rank, Relative Closeness ........................................... 207
Table 5-35: Criteria Weights for FST ........................................................................ 211
Table 5-36: Matrix: Assess Location based on Qualitative Criteria .......................... 212
Table 5-37: Quantitative Criteria Matrix ................................................................... 213
Table 5-38: Fuzzified Criteria Numbers of the Sites ................................................. 213
Table 5-39: Defuzzified Criteria Numbers of Sites and Ranking .............................. 213
Table 5-40: Decision Matrix with Aggregated Weight for CR ................................. 214
Table 5-41: Results of Calculation for Location Rating ............................................ 215
Table 5-42: Fuzzy Index of All Three Sites............................................................... 216
Table 5-43: Results of Defuzzification and Ranking of Sites.................................... 216
Table 6-1: Summary Design Capacity Average Annual Flow and Capacity Factor . 248
Table 6-2: Estimated Capital and O&M Expense...................................................... 249
Table 6-3: Hydro-Turbine Size Selection .................................................................. 250
Table 6-4: Decision Matrix ........................................................................................ 251
Table 6-5: Pair-Wise Comparison Matrix .................................................................. 253
Table 6-6: Normalized Matrix ................................................................................... 253
Table 6-7: Weighted Parameters ................................................................................ 254
Table 6-8: Matrix of Score ......................................................................................... 254
Table 6-9: Ranking of Small Hydropower Plant Sites............................................... 255
Table 6-10: Normalized Decision Matrix .................................................................. 255
Table 6-11: Waited Normalized Decision Matrix ..................................................... 255
Table 6-12: Euclidean Distance (Separation Measures) ............................................ 256
Table 6-13: TOPSIS Method Rank, Relative Closeness ........................................... 256
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxxii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
List of Figures
Figure 1-1: Comparison of Historical and Future Predicted GHG Emissions............... 6
Figure 2-1: Schematic for Global Atmospheric Model .............................................. 24
Figure 2-2: Schematic Illustration of GCM Structure at a Single Grid Box ............... 28
Figure 2-3: Comparison of Changes in Historical and Future Projected Temperature
and Precipitation Using GCMs under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 ........................................ 34
Figure: 3-1: General Transfer Functions Illustration ................................................... 56
Figure 3-2: Geographical Location of Chitral and SHP Sites...................................... 60
Figure 3-3: The Map of Chitral River Basin ................................................................ 60
Figure 3-4: Activity Flow Chart for Modeling Climate Change ................................. 61
Figure 3-5: Mean Monthly Temperature Comparison during 1984-2013 ................... 63
Figure 3-6: Historical Trends of Temperature Variance during 1984-2013 ................ 64
Figure 3-7: Mean Monthly Precipitation Comparison during 1984-2013 ................... 65
Figure 3-8: Historical Trends of Precipitation Variance during 1984-2013 ................ 66
Figure 3-9: Annual Precipitation during 1984-2013 .................................................... 66
Figure 3-10: Bias Corrected Temperature Predictions from 5 GCMs under A1B, A2
and B1 Emissions Scenarios ........................................................................................ 70
Figure 3-11: Bias Corrected Precipitation Predictions from 5 GCMs under A1B, A2
and B1 Emissions Scenarios ........................................................................................ 72
Figure 3-12: Comparison of Historical and Predicted Mean Monthly Temperature
Data of Chitral.............................................................................................................. 74
Figure 3-13: Trends in Future Temperature Variations ............................................... 75
Figure 3-14: Comparison of Historical and Predicted Mean Monthly Precipitation
Data of Chitral.............................................................................................................. 76
Figure 3-15: Trends in Future Precipitation Variations ............................................... 77
Figure 3-16: Function Fitting Neural Network for Configuration ............................... 84
Figure 3-17: Error Histogram ...................................................................................... 85
Figure 3-18: Curve Fitting for Temperature Data ........................................................ 85
Figure 3-19: Curve Fitting for Precipitation Data ........................................................ 86
Figure 3-20: Regression Analysis ................................................................................ 86
Figure 3-21: Network Performance Plot ...................................................................... 87
Figure 3-22: Comparison of Fuzzy Rule Future Projections of Temperature with
Historical Data ............................................................................................................. 89
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxxiii | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
Figure 3-23: Comparison of Fuzzy Rule Future Projections of Precipitation with
Historical Data ............................................................................................................. 90
Figure 4-1: River basin Area of Chitral River ........................................................... 107
Figure 4-2: Terrain and Geography of the Chitral Region ........................................ 107
Figure 4-3: Activity Flow Charge to Assess Impact of Climate Changes on Water
Resources ................................................................................................................... 109
Figure 4-4: The Map of Chitral Basin........................................................................ 110
Figure 4-5: Historical Trends of the River Flow in Chitral River 1989-2013 ........... 112
Figure 4-6: Steps Taken to Model Historical Data .................................................... 112
Figure 4-7: Comparison of Observed and Calibrated Discharge Data of River Chitral
.................................................................................................................................... 115
Figure 4-8: Comparison of Observed and Validated Discharge Data of River Chitral
.................................................................................................................................... 116
Figure 4-9: Sensitivity Analysis of Observed and Simulated Flow Data of River
Chitral ........................................................................................................................ 118
Figure 4-10: Sensitivity Analysis of Observed and Simulated Flow Data of River
Chitral ........................................................................................................................ 119
Figure 4-11: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Constant Rate
+4% and -4% ............................................................................................................. 122
Figure 4-12: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Max Deficit +4%
and -4% ...................................................................................................................... 123
Figure 4-13: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Canopy Max
Storage +4% and -4% ................................................................................................ 124
Figure 4-14: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Surface Max
Storage +4% and -4% ................................................................................................ 126
Figure 4-15: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Synder Peak
Coefficient +4% and -4%........................................................................................... 127
Figure 4-16: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Synder Standard
Lag +4% and -4% ...................................................................................................... 128
Figure 4-17: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Temp Coldrate
+4% and -4% ............................................................................................................. 130
Figure 4-18: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Temp Meltrate
+4% and -4% ............................................................................................................. 131
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxxiv | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
Figure 4-19: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Base Temp +4%
and -4% ...................................................................................................................... 132
Figure 4-20: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Ground Meltrate
+4% and -4% ............................................................................................................. 134
Figure 4-21: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Liquid WC +4%
and -4% ...................................................................................................................... 135
Figure 4-22: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying PX Temp +4%
and -4% ...................................................................................................................... 136
Figure 4-23: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Rain Rate +4%
and -4% ...................................................................................................................... 138
Figure 4-24: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying Wet Meltrate
+4% and -4% ............................................................................................................. 139
Figure 4-25: Comparison of Observed and Simulated Flow Varying All Parameters
+4% and -4% ............................................................................................................. 140
Figure 4-26: Steps Taken to Model Predictions for Hydrological Data .................... 141
Figure 4-27: Comparison of Historical and Predicted Mean Flow Data of Chitral
River ........................................................................................................................... 143
Figure 4-28: Flow Duration Curves for Periods 1989-2013, 2050, 2081 and 2099 .. 144
Figure 4-29: Function Fitting Neural Network for Configuration ............................. 153
Figure 4-30: Error Histogram for Training and Validation Fuzzy Model ................. 154
Figure 4-31: Best Fit Curve for River Flows ............................................................. 155
Figure 4-32: Regression Plot of the Data ................................................................... 155
Figure 4-33: Network Performance Plot .................................................................... 156
Figure 4-34: Comparison between Observed and Fuzzy Rule Based Projected Data
.................................................................................................................................... 158
Figure 5-1: Flow chart of climate change effects. Red indicates effects that are
typically detrimental to hydroelectric production, and blue indicates effects that
typically improve hydroelectric production potential ................................................ 174
Figure 5-2: Decision Matrix Chart ............................................................................. 194
Figure 5-3: Decision Matrix Chart – Scenario-1 ....................................................... 200
Figure 5-4: Decision Matrix Chart – Scenario 2 ........................................................ 206
Figure 5-5: Triangular Fuzzy Number ....................................................................... 209
Figure 5-6: U Triangular Fuzzy Numbers Used for Quantifying Linguistic Parameters
.................................................................................................................................... 212
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
xxxv | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
Figure 6-1: River basin Area of Chitral River ........................................................... 228
Figure 6-2: The Map of Chitral Basin........................................................................ 229
Figure 6-3: Activity Flow Chart for Optimally Sizing Small Hydropower Plant...... 230
Figure 6-4: Flow Duration Curves for Periods 1989-2013, 2050, 2081 and 2099 .... 231
Figure 6-5: Flow duration curve under negative uncertainties–Average for 2045-65
.................................................................................................................................... 232
Figure 6-6: Flow duration curve under positive uncertainties–Average for the year
2045-65 ...................................................................................................................... 233
Figure 6-7: Flow duration curve under negative and positive uncertainties (2045-65)
.................................................................................................................................... 233
Figure 6-8: Change in design discharge due to uncertainty in flow (year 2045-65) . 234
Figure 6-9: Flow duration curve under negative uncertainties–Average for the year
2080-99 ...................................................................................................................... 235
Figure 6-10: Flow duration curve under positive uncertainties–Average for the year
2080-99 ...................................................................................................................... 236
Figure 6-11: Flow duration curve under negative and positive uncertainties–Average
for the year 2080-99 ................................................................................................... 236
Figure 6-12: Change in design discharge due to uncertainty in flowChange in design
discharge due to uncertainty in flow .......................................................................... 237
Figure 6-13: Effect of random error ........................................................................... 238
Figure 6-14: Application Chart for Type of Turbine ................................................. 242
Figure 6-15: Available Flow 25% of time during 1983-2013, 2014-30, 2046-65 and
2080-90 ...................................................................................................................... 244
Figure 6-16: Available Flow 30% of time during 1983-2013, 2014-30, 2046-65 and
2080-90 ...................................................................................................................... 245
Figure 6-17: Available Flow 30% of time during 1983-2013, 2014-30, 2046-65 and
2080-90 ...................................................................................................................... 245
Figure 6-18: Flow 40% of time during 1983-2013, 2014-30, 2046-65 and 2080-90 246
Figure 6-19: Comparative Analysis of Annual Average Production of SHP Turbines
.................................................................................................................................... 247
Figure 6-20: Payback Analysis of Investment of SHP Turbines ............................... 249
Figure 6-21: Decision Matrix Chart ........................................................................... 252
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
1 | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
CHAPTER NO. 1. INTRODUCTION
Global Climate Change resulting from an increasing concentration of Greenhouse Gases
(GHG) in the atmosphere caused due to excessive use of fossil fuels and other
anthropogenic activities is now an established phenomenon. The effects of these climate
changes have been observed in most parts of the world including Pakistan. With
continued heavy reliance of the world energy system on fossil fuels for the near future,
much larger climatic changes and their adverse impacts are expected in the coming
decades.
1.1 Background
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report (IPCC,
AR5) has concluded with scientific consensus that human activities, mainly Greenhouse
Gases‘ (GHGs) emissions and changes in land use are the primary driver of global
climate change. Linden et al, 2016; Maibach et al, 2014; Cook et al, 2013, Andereg et al,
2010 and many others also have concluded that human-caused climate change is
occurring worldwide.
According to the IPCC, AR5 (IPCC-2014) the average temperature of the earth‘s surface
increased by 0.6 °C during the 20th
century. The studies have projected that if business as
usual persists then the world is going to experience an average increase in global
temperature within a range of 1.1 to 6.4 °C by the end of 21st century (IPCC, 2014). It is
further anticipated that this increase in temperature would not be uniformly distributed all
over the globe, rather a few parts are expected to experience very high temperature
increases and a few would face decrease in annual average temperatures. Among others,
this would also cause large variations (both, increases and decreases) in precipitation in
different world regions and various other climatic extremities. Some of those could be
worldwide increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme floods, droughts and
cyclones, large scale shrinking of Arctic sea ice and recession of mountain glaciers, rise
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
2 | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
in average sea level by up to 0.6 meter etc., with serious adverse impacts on various
socio-economic sectors in many parts of the world.
The impacts of climate changes are expected to cause serious damages in the globe as
this would create an imbalance in the energy of the Earth. This imbalance needs to be
stabilized; otherwise, it would result in global warming of up to 2⁰C above the
preindustrial level and would spur more ice shelf melt that would cause sea level rise,
changes in climatic patterns and shifts in precipitation (Hansen et al, 2015). Besada et al
(2013) demonstrated the link between climate change and six affected categories of
development including: economics and agriculture; water; ecosystem and biodiversity;
human health; coast regions; and, forced migration and conflict as a means of developing
a standardized criterion of climate change effects on development.
The studies indicate that climate changes are going to affect the freshwater resources of
the world strongly (Vliet et al, 2016; Tadic et al, 2016, Li et al, 2012). Most significant
effects would include variation in runoff, flood intensity and frequency, and intensity and
duration of low flows (Chen et al, 2012, Lu et al, 2013). This will create issues in water
resource management and global & regional socioeconomic systems (Bates et al, 2008).
In addition, there are probabilities that due to climate changes, a distinct reduction in
summer river flows and an increase in winter runoff would result. It is therefore essential
that the information about the potential impacts of climate change on river runoff should
be prepared in order to have efficient adaptation strategies (Stagl and Hattermann, 2015).
The water flow in rivers, streams, canals and waterfalls renders excellent opportunity to
convert potentio-kinetic energy to electrical energy by installing hydro turbines.
Depending upon the available potential, hydropower plants of varying capacity i.e. from
some kilowatts (kW) to gigawatts (GW) are being installed globally. Small hydro power
that includes projects up to 50 megawatts (MW) capacities, can supply cheap electricity
to central/national grids. It is a proven technology that has been benefited from over a
century by installing large and small hydropower systems.
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
3 | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
Pakistan is situated in the South Asian region and is located in sub-tropical arid zone. The
total land area of the country is 796,095 square Kilometers (sq. km). Pakistan is one of
the unique countries of the world that has variable geological and climatic conditions.
The land area altitude varies from 0 meter above sea level (masl) up to 8611m masl. It
has 240,000 sq. km (31%) economic zone, 110,000 sq. km (14%) desert area, 31,844 sq.
km (4%) forest area, 25,220 sq. km (3%) water area (rivers, streams etc.), 15,000 sq. km
(2%) glacier cover,364,031 sq. km (46%) other area (including populated and barren
land), 50,000 km additional continental shelf area and around 990 km long coastline.
Human population is residing at altitude from 0 m masl up to more than 8,000 m masl.
The country has a unique geo-political and economic situation that increases its
significance in the region. The glacier area of the country has around 5,000 glaciers that
make Pakistan the most glacier-populated country of the world outside the Polar Region.
Globally, glaciers are considered as stabilizer to the global and regional climate and are
most significant source of the clean fresh water. The glaciers in this area are retreating at
an alarming rate of around 23 percent (MoCC, 2016).
The climate of the country is semi-arid and can be classified into four climate regions
namely i) the marine tropical coastland; ii) the subtropical continental lowlands; iii) the
subtropical continental highlands; and iv) the subtropical continental plateau (MoCC,
2016).
Pakistan is administratively divided into seven federating units and a federal capital.
Significant features of the Pakistan‘s society are it is multicultural carries ethnic
diversity that has add on of culture from neighboring countries due to hosting large
refugees‘ population and social relations. From economic standpoint, the country has
large percentage of young population that if provided with required capital, opportunities
and ways to contribute in coming years can play a vital role in economic development
and growth of the country. Estimates indicate that the prolific utilization of the young
population for sustainable development and growth of the country requires creating 1.5
million new job opportunities in every proceeding year (MoCC, 2016).
OPTIMALLY LOCATING THE SMALL HYDRO UNITS TO MAXIMIZE POWER PRODUCTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FLOW
4 | P a g e Irfan Yousuf 2K11-UET/PhD-CE-48
As per the estimates, Pakistan is the sixth most populous country of the world and second
largest country of the Muslim world with current population around 195.4 million. The
Government of Pakistan is anticipating population growth rate of around 1.89 percent per
annum. At this rate, estimated population of Pakistan at the end of year 2025, 2050 and
2099 would be around 229 million, 275 million and 350 million respectively.
Top Related