Christophe PILLOT [email protected]
+33(0)1 4778 4600
HEV, P-HEV, and EV
market 2011-2025
Battery is the key
Director, AVICENNE ENERGY
Christophe PILLOT BRUSSELS
20 – 22 NOVEMBER 2012
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
AVICENNE PROFILE
Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI
Headquarter: Paris
Liaison Office: Japan, USA
AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot
5 consultants A Madani C Pillot JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari
Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy
with in-depth research
The Rechargeable Battery market
21st Edition
Customized
survey
2
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO
RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION
In Depth analysis Of applications
Conferences & Exhibitions
Top management contact network > 19 000 contacts
Cross Check Analysis
Battery Makers
OEM
Raw materials suppliers
Environment & recycling
BMS
Electronics
Substitution technologies
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY
FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN
Source : Photo from BASF
Raw Materials
BMS & Electronics
Cooling Systems
Power Electronics
Batteries
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO
HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS
HEV powered by Lithium ion battery
forecasts from 2008 to 2012
EV sold, in million units, worldwide,
2010 - 2020
IIT (March 2010)
AAB
Deutsche Bank
Roland Berger (2011)
AVICENNE
IIT (March 2011)
Roland Berger (2012)
0
1
2
3
4
5
2010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
5
IIT 2007
IIT 2008
IIT 2009
IIT 2010
AVICENNE 2007
REALITY 0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mill
ion
HEV
po
wer
ed b
y LI
B
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
6
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY
DYNAMIC
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2011
Mill
ion
Un
its
/ ye
ar
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
211 M Portable
PCs
65 M Tablets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2011
Mill
ion
Un
its/
Ye
ar
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2000 2011
Ton
s o
f ca
tho
de
/ Y
ear
Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2000 2011
$/W
h
Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
1990 2000 2010
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
1990 2000 2010
MW
h
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2010
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
1990 2000 2010
MW
h
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)
7
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2010
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
1990 2000 2010
Bill
ion
US
$
Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
35 BILLION US$
5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2010)
8
-
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
1990 2000 2010
Bill
ion
US$
STORAGE
TRACTION
INDUSTRIAL
PORTABLE
SLI
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
LI-ION IN 2011
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
>4 200 M cells – 28 000 MWh
9 700 M$
CAGR 2006/2011
+21% per year in Volume
+13% per year in value
9
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
M W
h
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2011
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 M
Wh
Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2011
Tablets Power Tools Camcorders
Digital Camera Video Games MP3
Toys Auto Household devices
E-bikes Others
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
LI-ION IN 2011
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
> 4 200M cells – 28 000 MWh
9 700 M$
CAGR 2006/2011
+21% per year in Volume
+13% per year in value
10
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
M $
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2011
Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 M
$
Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2011
Automotives Tablets Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes Others
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
Million barrel per day
Price of the WTI barrel
of oil, US $
CO2 density in the
atmosphere increase
11
WHY X-EV ?
Petroleum
consumption
worldwide 1960-2030
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
19
73
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
Source: Energy Information
Administration, US Government
Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
Source: IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007, Synthesis Report p38
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
12
HEV, P-HEV & EV
DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION
EV & HEV MARKET
EV 25 kWh
HEV 0.6-2 kWh batteries
MICRO HEV*
MILD HEV
MEDIUM HEV
FULL HEV
P HEV 5 kWh
batteries
CITROEN C3 TOYOTA VITZ
GM Saturn Vue GM AURA
GM MALIBU HONDA ACCORD
HONDA CIVIC INSIGHT
MERCEDES S400
TOYOTA PRIUS
TOYOTA CAMRY
FORD ESCAPE FORD FUSION
MILAN GM YUKON GM TAHOE
NISSAN ALTIMA
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $
Fuel saving Vs. Cost
HEV
P-HEV
EV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012
1,5 M HEV
HEV sold per year, M units,
worldwide, 2000 - 2012
Penetration of hybrids in the
global sales, 2000-2012
13
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
Micro hybrid not included
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
1,0%
1,2%
1,4%
1,6%
1,8%
2,0%
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
HEV
wo
rld
wid
e p
en
etr
atio
n (
%)
Mill
ion
TOYOTA OTHERS
USA
JAPAN
EUROPE 0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Pen
etra
tio
n o
f h
ybri
ds
in t
he
glo
bal
e s
ales
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012
BY CAR SUPPLIER
TOYOTA
HONDA
FORD GM
BMW
HYUNDAI
PORCHE
Others
Total HEV Vehicles
+1,5 M in 2012
HEV sold per year, M units per
car manufacturers, 2000-2012
14
TOYOTA
HONDA
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
‘ 00
0 H
EV s
old
TOYOTA HONDA
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
Micro hybrid not included
Others: Nissan, Mercedes, Mazda, VW, Audi
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012
BY CAR SUPPLIER
TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA,
HYUNDAI
OTHERS: FORD, GM, …
15
TOYOTA
HONDA
HYUNDAI 0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400 ‘ 0
00
HEV
so
ld
TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI
FORD
GM
HYUNDAI
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
‘ 00
0 H
EV s
old
FORD GM HYUNDAI
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY
Micro hybrid not included
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012
BY COUNTRY
USA 29%
EUROPE 10%
JAPAN 54%
OTHERS 7%
Total HEV Vehicles
1,5 M in 2012
HEV sold per year, M units per
country, 2004-2012
16
USA
EUROPE
JAPAN
OTHERS 0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Micro hybrid not included
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
HEV FORECASTS
2012-2020
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
USA EUROPE JAPAN
OTHERS WORLD
HEV MARKET: +2 Million units in 2015 & +4 M Units in 2020
17
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
Mill
ion
USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS
Micro hybrid not included
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
LONG TERM HEV FORECAST
FROM 3 TO 8 M HEV IN 2020
0,9
2,2
4,4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2011 2015 2020
Mill
ion
AVICENNE (Sept 2012)
AVICENNE (Oct 2009)
AABC (2011)
IIT (March 2011)
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009)
Roland Berger (Mini August 2011)
Nomura (March 2009)
18
AVICENNE ENERGY FORECASTS ARE REALISTIC
COMPARE TO OTHER ANALYSTS
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Compilation, February 2012
Micro hybrid not included
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
LI-ION PENETRATION IN VARIOUS
DEVICES: AVICENNE & OTHER ANALYSTS FORECAST
19
Li-ion penetration in electronic
devices & HEV
(1)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Relevant scenario
(2)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Li-ion Optimistic scenario
(3)IIT, TAKESHITA, March 08, THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT, Slide 8 & March 2009, 26th Battery Seminar,
(4)AAB, Menahem ANDERMAN, Ph.D, Tampa, Florida, May 2009
HEV powered by LIB
forecasts from 2008 to 2011
IIT 2007
IIT 2008
IIT 2009
IIT 2010
AVICENNE 2007
REALITY 0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mill
ion
HEV
po
wer
ed b
y LI
B
Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
Micro hybrid not included
Cellular Phones
(to=1994)
Portable PCs (to=1994)
Power Tools (to=2004)
HEV Avicenne (to=2010)
HEV IIT (to=2009)
HEV AAB (to=2009)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Li-i
on
pen
etra
tio
n in
ele
ctro
nic
de
vice
s &
HEV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
LIB BUSINESS
RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT
20
More & more incidents & accidents
All the battery makers and the OEM are concerned
Recall cost impact drastically the battery business and the profitability
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Op
era
tin
g p
rofi
t/R
eve
nu
e
RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT
Sanyo
MBI
BYD
SGS
Sony
NEC
Maxell
LGC
SDI
Average
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS
IN LIB INDUSTRY
The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming.
Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launch by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago.
LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (19 years ago)
Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (15 years ago).
So, it take between 10 & 20 years to commercialized a new material in the battery industry.
21
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
22
LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS
2009-2015
10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE
>50 GWh in 2015
A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems
Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity 0 500 1000 1500
PANASONIC NISSAN Motor US
Sony BYD
LG Chem JCI
A123 Sanyo Ener1
Nissan-Renault (Fr) Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)
GS YUASA SB Limotive
Hitachi Vehicle Energy Lithium Energy Japan Rusnano-Thunder Sky
LG Chem - Compact … Nissan - Renault (UK)
Toshiba Blue Energy
Nissan-Renault (Port) Lishen
BAK SAFT US
SAFT Hitachi Vehicle Energy
AESC Japon NEC Tokin (Electrodes)
Mitsubishi H.I. SK Energy
Panasonic EV LiTec GmbH
M$
Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing
Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
LIB BATTERY COST
Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, …)
Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc… cost structure :
CAPEX,
labor cost,
R&D
Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin)
Raw material needs / mAh
Electrode process Yield
Assembly Process Yield
Cell manufacturing cost
Module manufacturing cost
Pack assembly cost
…
Costs analysis Battery price in 2011
$/kWh
23
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
LIB 18650
cell
LIB EV Cell
LIB pack for EV
LIB HEV cell
LIB pack for HEV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
LI-ION BATTERY COST
2011-2020
LIB cell average cost
(EV design ; NMC cathode)
LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST
FOR EV
24
* For Production > 100 000 packs/year
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2015 2020
$ /
kW
h
Margin
Overheads
Sales & Adm
R&D
Energy, utilities
Direct labor
Depreciation
Others
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode cost
Cathode cost 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Cel
l
Pac
k
Cel
l
Pac
k
Cel
l
Pac
k
$ /
kW
h
Pack Cost
Cell Manufacturing
Other Materials
Electrolyte
Separator
Anode
Cathode 2015* 2020* 2011*
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
EV FORECASTS
2011-2020
EV sold, in million units,
worldwide, 2010 - 2020
EV impact on the LIB & raw
material market is HUGE
25
IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale
IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale
Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 – Nov 2009
Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes
AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011
IIT (March 2010)
AAB
Deutsche Bank
Roland Berger
AVICENNE
IIT (March 2011)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2015 2020
Nu
mb
er o
f EV
so
ld w
orl
dw
ide
( M
illio
n)
4
50
45
400
1000
10000
25000
1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000
Mobile Phone
Portable PC
Power Tools
E-bikes
HEV
P-HEV
EV
Average Wh per device
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND
2011-2020
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery
needs (M Wh) 2005 – 2020
Total battery demand (MWh)
2000 – 2025
26
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M
Wh
NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV
LIB for EV
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
2005 2010 2015 2020
M W
h
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV
LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN
2020
Micro-hybrids car market
2010-2020
Advantages of micro-hybrid
compare to HEV
27
Powered by Advanced lead acid batteries
Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)
Much more impact on CO2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
Micro-hybrid car sold per year
AVICENNE
Optimistic Scenario
JD Power
Valeo
Micro-hybrid Full HEV
Battery Advanced lead acid
NiMH or LIB
Cost ($) 300 3000
Fuel saving 5% 20%
Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020
35 - 55 4
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL
BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID
BATTERIES
28
Stand
ard
Lead acid
Batteries
2010 2015 2020 AFTER
Li-ion
batteries
NiM
H b
atte
ries
STANDARD CAR
88.5% EV
P-HEV
FULL
HEV
1%
MILD
HEV
0.5%
MICRO
HYBRIDS
10%
Ad
vanced
Lead acid
(+ EDLC
)
NiM
H
STANDARD CAR
54%
MICRO HYBRID
40%
EV
P-HEV
2%
FULL
HEV
4%
ULTRA
BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
TAKEAWAYS
Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices
For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH
LIB begin really to compete in 2012
P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 5 B$ market in 2015 & 9 B$ in 2020
EV expectations attract large Chemical companies
New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards
HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020
P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020
Micro-hybrid will achieve 40%
Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2020 in volume & value
Battery Market 2010-2020
CAGR = +8%
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY
MARKET WORLDWIDE
2000-2020
29
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 M
$
Lead Acid NiCd NiMH LIB
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1990 2000 2010 2020 M
Wh
Lead Acid NiCd NiMH LIB Others
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00
HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025
Battery is the Key
THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOT
AVICENNE ENERGY
Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00
Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
30
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