The Big BreakHarry Dent, Founder of Dent Research and
forecaster of the Japan collapse, the dot.com boom and bust, the real estate bust, and the 2008 crash has been warning of an epic bust ahead. After the Dow’s historic 1,000 point drop, is this
the beginning of the end?
Just one of Harry’s charts says: YES!
The Game ChangerS&P 500 Channel
Aug-
11O
ct-1
1De
c-11
Feb-
12Ap
r-12
Jun-
12Au
g-12
Oct
-12
Dec-
12Fe
b-13
Apr-1
3Ju
n-13
Aug-
13O
ct-1
3De
c-13
Feb-
14Ap
r-14
Jun-
14Au
g-14
Oct
-14
Dec-
14Fe
b-15
Apr-1
5Ju
n-15
Aug-
15O
ct-1
51,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
Source: Yahoo! Finance
1
2
3
4
5The Crash is here. The S&P 500 broke
through a channel that has held for over four years. It’s a game-changer.
Forecast: A Likely ScenarioAu
g-11
Oct
-11
Dec-
11Fe
b-12
Apr-1
2Ju
n-12
Aug-
12O
ct-1
2De
c-12
Feb-
13Ap
r-13
Jun-
13Au
g-13
Oct
-13
Dec-
13Fe
b-14
Apr-1
4Ju
n-14
Aug-
14O
ct-1
4De
c-14
Feb-
15Ap
r-15
Jun-
15Au
g-15
Oct
-151,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
Source: Yahoo! Finance
1
2
3
4
5Now that it’s broken through, there’s
likely nothing to stop it.
How Did We Get Here?
The Rising S&P 500 ChannelAu
g-11
Oct
-11
Dec-
11Fe
b-12
Apr-1
2Ju
n-12
Aug-
12O
ct-1
2De
c-12
Feb-
13Ap
r-13
Jun-
13Au
g-13
Oct
-13
Dec-
13Fe
b-14
Apr-1
4Ju
n-14
Aug-
14O
ct-1
4De
c-14
Feb-
15Ap
r-15
Jun-
15Au
g-15
Oct
-151,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
Source: Yahoo! Finance
1
2
3In its channel, the index predictably followed the classic Elliott Wave 5-wave pattern, hitting its third wave
peak on September 9, 2014.
The Third Wave HitsJu
n-14
Aug-
14
Oct
-14
Dec-
14
Feb-
15
Apr-
15
Jun-
15
Aug-
15
Oct
-151,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
Source: Yahoo! Finance
3
2,019September 19, 2014
Here’s a closer look.
The Fourth Wave CorrectionJu
n-14
Aug-
14
Oct
-14
Dec-
14
Feb-
15
Apr-
15
Jun-
15
Aug-
15
Oct
-151,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
Source: Yahoo! Finance
3
41,835
October 16, 2014
A classic, sharp, 4th wave correction quickly ensued. It finally ended with the
support of the bottom channel line.
Top of the Channel HitJu
n-14
Aug-
14
Oct
-14
Dec-
14
Feb-
15
Apr-
15
Jun-
15
Aug-
15
Oct
-151,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
Source: Yahoo! Finance
3
4
2,075November 28, 2014
A rally the following month tested the channel top, but couldn’t quite break through.
The Fifth Wave Market PeakRounded and Failing Top
Jun-
14
Aug-
14
Oct
-14
Dec-
14
Feb-
15
Apr-
15
Jun-
15
Aug-
15
Oct
-151,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
Source: Yahoo! Finance
3
4
5
2,135May 20, 2015
The S&P never quite met the channel top again. It finally limped into a 5th wave peak on May 20,
2015, forming a rounded and failing top.
Resistance MetJu
n-14
Aug-
14
Oct
-14
Dec-
14
Feb-
15
Apr-
15
Jun-
15
Aug-
15
Oct
-151,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
Source: Yahoo! Finance
3
4
5
2,035August 20, 2015
The Fed-induced market bubble staggered for weeks. It finally closed on the bottom channel line on August 20, 2015. The moment of truth.
Falling Through ResistanceJu
n-14
Aug-
14
Oct
-14
Dec-
14
Feb-
15
Apr-
15
Jun-
15
Aug-
15
Oct
-151,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
Source: Yahoo! Finance
3
4
5
1,970August 21, 2015
This time, it fell right through the long-held resistance, a clear signal that this bubble has
finally popped.
Below SupportJu
n-14
Aug-
14
Oct
-14
Dec-
14
Feb-
15
Apr-
15
Jun-
15
Aug-
15
Oct
-151,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
Source: Yahoo! Finance
3
4
5
1,867August 24, 2015
And then it fell further.
Forecast: Two Likely ScenariosJu
n-14
Aug-
14
Oct
-14
Dec-
14
Feb-
15
Apr-
15
Jun-
15
Aug-
15
Oct
-151,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
Source: Yahoo! Finance
3
4
5
This is likely the beginning of a major market crash. Don’t be fooled by a temporary rally.
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