Harald Sverdrup1,2, Anna Hulda Olafsdottir2, Deniz Koca3
4-System Dynamics Group, Gameschool, Norwegian Inland University, Hamar, Norway,
2-Industrial Engineering, University of Iceland, 3-University of Lund, Sweden
WORLD7 EVOLUTION; TO REACH HIGH; STAND ON THE SHOULDERS OF OTHERS
• 1961-1971; World1-World2; Forrester team (1961-1971), MIT; Industrial dynamics, urban dynamics, world dynamics, the first
pioneering basic World model. Very simplified and aggregated because of computational constraints of the computers available
(Forrester 1961, 1969, 1971).
• 1971-2004; World3; The Meadows team (1972-2004), MIT; World dynamics and limits to growth. More elaborate than
World2, better parameterized, described in “Limits to growth” and “Dynamics of Growth in a Final World” (Meadows et al.,
1972, 1974). The model had significant simplifications because of computational constraints of the computers available.
• 2011-2018; WORLD4-6; Sverdrup, Koca, Olafsdottir, Lund University, University of Iceland. Reality-based market mechanisms
and simulates commodity and resource price dynamics internally. Handles global economic and financial development, and
captures economic cycles of growth and decline. The modules are linked and resource and policy aspects can be addressed.
The model is developed in the STELLA System Dynamics software (Sverdrup et al., 2013, Sverdrup and Ragnarsdottir 2014,
Lorenz et al., 2017). WORLD6 has no parts included from the earlier models.
• 2019-present: WORLD7, global integrated Assessment model (IAM). Harald Sverdrup and Anna Olafsdottir: Reorganization
of the whole model stucture. Completion of the resource parts. Emphasis on whole system cross-linked feedbacks. Inclusion
of social modules, development of a full biophysical economic model. (Sverdrup 2020, Sverdrup et al., 2020)
Economy
Environment
Energy
Food and demography
Society Health and
people
Metals and materials
Industrial dynamics
MODELS AND POLICY DEVELOPMENT
NATURAL RESOURCES, METALS AND MATERIALS
READING WORLD7 DIAGRAMS FOR RESOURCES, UNDERSTANDING «SCARCITY»
Years
Lith
ium
,m
illio
nt
on
pe
rye
ar
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 2160 2180 2200
1 2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1 23
4
5
1
2
3
4 5
Demand1 Modified2 Supply3 Mining4 Recycled5
Wanted
Afforded
Available
3 DIFFERENT METHODS ALL GIVE THE SAME MESSAGE
• Simple mass balance and burn-off
estimates for 40 elements
• Hubbert’s curves for 16 elements
• WORLD7; Fully integrated dynamic
simulation of the extraction,
recycling and supply for 43 metals,
elements and materials
THE KEY TECHNOLOGY METALS HAVE LIMITED SUPPLY
• Photovoltaics depend on having Indium, Germanium, Gallium, Tellurium, and Silver
available, limiting how much solar electricity we can collect
• Rechargeable batteries depend on Lithium, Cobalt and Rare Earth Elements for
good function, limiting how many electric vehicles we can build.
• High performance magnets, electric generators and eletromotors depend on Rare
Earth Elements and Copper for their functions. The number of energy-efficient eletric
engines may be limited, the availability sets a limit for how much wind energy we can
collect.
Germaniumandthinfilmphotovoltaics
Years
0
0.0001
0.0002
0.0003
0.0004
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
1850 1890 1930 1970 2010 2050 2090 2130 2170 2210 22501
23
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3 4
1
23
4
Demand1 Supply2
Used3 Limit4
COPPER, COBALT, INDIUM, IRON
DEMAND, MODIFIED DEMAND, SUPPLY, MINING, RECYCLING
Years
Co
pp
er,
Mil
lio
nt
onp
ery
ear
0.00
15.00
30.00
45.00
60.00
1900 1960 2020 2080 2140 2200
1 23 4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
34
5
1
2
34
5
Cuprimarydemand1 CuMinedtorefining2
CuSocietysupply3 Cumodifieddemand4
CuSenttoRecycling5
Years
Co
bal
t,m
illi
on
to
np
er
yea
r
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1900 1960 2020 2080 2140 22001 2 3 4
5
1
2
3
4
5 1
2
3
4
51
2
3
4
5
Cosupply1 Corecycled2
Cototalextraction3 Codemand4
Coadjusteddemand5
Years
Ind
ium
,m
illi
ont
onp
ery
ear
0
0.0005
0.001
0.0015
0.002
0.0025
0.003
1900 1960 2020 2080 2140 22001 2 3 4
5
1 2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4 5
1
2
3
4 5
Indemand1 Inmodifieddemand2
Insupplyintosociety3 Inrecycled4
Inextraction5
Copper Cobalt Indium
Years
Su
pp
lyk
gp
erp
erso
np
ery
ear
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
Li REE Co Mo Nb
Years
Iron
,m
illi
on
to
np
er
year
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
1 2 34 5 6
1
2 3
45
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
34 5
6
Mining1 Data2 Rich3
High4 Low5 Ultralow6
ELECTRIC VEHICLES NEED RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, WITH FOCUS ON LITHIUM AND COBALT
Electric vehicle potential as a function of lithium requirement and
size of the extractable amount available.
Today; 1.2 billion cars globally
Lithium
resource
million
ton
Requirement per battery unit, kg lithium contained
5 10 30
Millions of electric battery units possible
116 1,200 610 203
73 800 400 133
34 396 198 66
RESOURCE QUALITY IS CONSISTENTLY DECLINING FOR ALL RESOURCES
Iron, Manganese, Chromium, Nickel Copper, Zinc, Lead
EROI
Years
En
erg
yR
etu
rnO
nI
nve
stm
ent
0
20
40
60
80
100
1900 1935 1970 2005 2040 2075 2110 2145 2180 2215 2250
Allenergy Gas Oil Coal
Nuclear Renewables Hydropower Geothermal
WHEN DO RESOURCE EXTRACTION, PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY REACH MAXIMUM?
Metal Extraction
peak year
Supply peak
year
Recycling
degree (%) Metal
Extraction
peak year
Supply peak
year
Recycling
degree (%)
Oil 2012 2014 0 Titanium 2038 2060 40
Gas 2016 2016 0 Tellurium 1984 2060 0
Coal 2020 2018 0 Phosphorus 2035 2060 16
Cadmium 2010 2020 80 Palladium 2042 2065 60
Gold 2016 2036 85 Aluminium 2030 2070 75
Cobalt 2026 2040 40 Iron 2052 2072 60
Gallium 2026 2042 5 Stainless steel 2052 2070 65
Silver 2038 2045 70 Manganese 2053 2072 45
Selenium 2042 2050 0 Tantalum 2035 2078 60
Cut stone 2040 2050 20 Molybdenum 2038 2080 40
Lead 2041 2051 65 Rhenium 2042 2080 40
Niobium 2045 2052 60 Uranium 2035 2080 50
Tin 2046 2055 40 Zinc 2046 2090 20
Antimony 2048 2056 15 Chromium 2051 2110 22
Indium 2042 2055 20 Copper 2044 2120 60
Rhodium 2034 2058 60 Lithium 2060 2142 10
Germanium 2042 2058 20 Sand 2075 2150 30
Bismuth 2044 2059 5 Gravel 2130 2150 20
Nickel 2028 2060 50 Rare Earths 2045 2280 15
Platinum 2036 2060 70 Thorium 2090 2400 90
RESOURCE SUPPLY CHALLENGES PILE UP
UNDER BUSINESS-AS-USUAL
TOWARDS 2040 - 2070
AS RESOURCE QUALITY DECLINE, COST AND EFFORT GO UP IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN
CONSUMPTION
Years
%o
fG
DP
use
df
or
reso
urc
ep
rod
ucti
on
0
10
20
30
40
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250
Percenttakenbyresourceproduction
Years
Fra
ctio
no
fa
llenerg
ya
vaila
ble
used
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1850 1890 1930 1970 2010 2050 2090 2130 2170 2210 2250
Fe,Ni,Cr,Mn,Cu,Zn,Pb,Cement,Plastics,Stonymaterials
Policies suggested Energy Resources Social Works?
1. Reduce man-made greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible – Global Energie-wende
Can be done with better energy
efficiency
Needs a lot of specialty materials
Depends on being socially sustainable
Only with
system change
2. Help poor nations grow faster – by rapid industrialisation similar to Japan, Korea and China
Challenging energy supply, challenging
pollution risks
High risk for hard scarcity on key technological
materials
Limited by corruption and
poor governance
Difficult
3. Reduce unemployment and inequity through more jobs
Can be done in Energiewende
Increases demand of key supplies
Social change stresses
Yes
4. Further slow population growth – through positive incentives
Decline reduce consumption
Decline reduce consumption
Needs global attitude change
Yes
5. UN high population scenario Energiewende
becomes far more challenging
Risk that resource scarcity strikes
Economic crisis and disruptions
Social stresses
Very difficult
Jørgen Randers suggested some future policies,
We ran WORLD7 to test them..
CO
NC
LUSI
ON
S • A systemic approach is a condition for resolving the challenges.
• Narrow sectorial appoaches are neither systemic, nor sufficient, it is not about adjusting the parameters of the present system, feedbacks co across sectors
• The circular society is systemic in nature and must be designed as such. When society is circular, that creates the circular economy
• Goal conflicts will demand to be solved at a systemic level
• Systemic changes need to be multi-sectorial, causally linked and pervasive • Energie-wende is linked to a Resource-wende
• Both are about rearranging the basic structure of the systems and resetting parameters
• It involves all fundamental systems; industrial, economic and social dynamics
• It may imply transformative changes to existing society and power-structures
• Unresolvable goal conflicts will lead to difficult choices
• All this leads to the necessity of a Social-wende
• Transformative changes take time,
• Plan with at least 20 years from start to full implementations (Ref; LRTAP protocol, IPCC progress). Starting is needed at once (2020+20 = 2040).
• Must engage all arenas: Science, Communication, Political
Top Related