Great Lakes Nutrient Management & Water Quality:
Taking a wider view
Don Scavia
y = 0.2603e0.0018x R² = 0.8338
0
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4
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18
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Maumee River Mar-Jun TP Load (MT)
Modified from Stumpf et al. 2012
Cya
no
bac
teri
a In
dex
Preventing Blooms is Most Protective
Strong Relationship between Summer Max bloom & Spring TP load
International Joint Commission Issued Lake Erie Ecosystem Priority (LEEP) report
Recommends new ~40% reduction targets Similar to Ohio Task Force recommendations Asks MI/OH to declare Western Basin impaired under CWA
Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement Will set new goals for HAB, hypoxia, chlorophyll, benthic algae
New loading targets for Lake Erie by 2016 Calls for loads to be allocated among countries, watersheds TMDL-like, but not under CWA authority
Worked before --- but primarily on point sources
Most focus now is on conservation programs in the Farm Bill, but ….
Maumee River Watershed
“Feasible”
Bosch et al. 2013
Needed
This is not tinkering around
the edges!
Targets and approaches are not unlike dealing
with dead zones
Dead Zones Also Driven by Nutrient Loads
Chesapeake Bay
Lake Erie Central Basin Gulf of Mexico
… and all loads are driven primarily by industrial row crop
agriculture
0
5
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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Hy
po
xia
are
a (
10
3k
m2)
NO3 (MT/day)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
0.0E+00 1.0E+05 2.0E+05 3.0E+05 4.0E+05 5.0E+05
Hy
po
xic
v
olu
me
(km
3)
TN load (kg/day)
Load Reduction Targets across all three systems continue to be
within the 40-50% range …
… So, how are we approaching those?
$14.1 billion on Farm Bill conservation programs between 1995-2012 ~$340 million in WLEB during this time period. So, how's it working?
Primary policies and programs for controlling agricultural nutrient pollution are in the Farm Bill
Data from Environmental Working Group Website
Little change in TN load and Hypoxia in Gulf of Mexico Action Plans!
Almost no impact on loads
Little change in TN load and Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay
Little change in loads
Ph
yto
pla
nkt
on
Bio
mas
s (
wet
g/m
3)
Little impact on non-point source loads
Central Basin Dead Zone
Western Basin Algae
$14.1 billion on Farm Bill conservation programs between 1995-2012 ~$340 million in WLEB during this time period.
Primary policies and programs for controlling agricultural nutrient pollution are in the Farm Bill
Insanity:
Public health
Energy policy
Nutrition
Supply chain
Four contexts to add to Farm Bill Conservation measures
Are Drinking Water Impacts a Game Changer?
Toledo and other Lake Erie communities
Des Moines Water Works to sue 3 counties
Chance to move out from under "environment and agriculture" paradigm?
Use of Public Health/Public Trust drivers?
Ayn Rand, Rand Paul, and Paul Ryan walk into a bar. The bartender serves them tainted alcohol because there are no regulations.
They die.
Regulation/public health mandate
Focus on regulation to protect human health!
Treat more of agriculture as point sources (aka Des Moines case)
Mandate action - not voluntary, incentive based -
to "protect human health and safety".
But, why so much corn?
Reduce demand for industrial corn
Change Irrational U.S. Energy Policy
2011 USDA statistics
What does this have to do with corn?
Animal Feed
Not much real food
Change American diet
Change American diet
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
N c
onsu
mpt
ion,
g p
erso
n -1 da
y -1
meat
… with obvious health Impacts
Nitrogen consumption in meat
Reduce demand for industrial corn
Linking health, dietary guidance, and the environment will promote human health and
the sustainability of natural resources and ensure current and long-term food security.
-- 2015 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee
Imbed Environmental Impacts in Nutrition Guidance
The Committee directs the Secretary to ensure that the advisory committee
focuses only on nutrient and dietary recommendations based upon sound nutrition
science and not pursue an environmental agenda.
-- House Appropriations Committee
Change American diet
What if we ate less meat?
Impact the Supply Chain
To meet goal, they are requiring companies who use commodity grains to develop fertilizer optimization plans
Thus far, 15 major suppliers – representing 30 percent of food and
beverage sales in North America – have developed those plans
Is this enough? Focus is on Nitrogen What are next steps?
E.g., Walmart committed to reduce 20 MMT of GHG emissions from its supply chain
We need a National Coalition to add the following to the Farm Bill conservation programs:
• Regulate from a public health mandate
• Change U.S. energy policy
• Include "environment" in Nutrition Guidelines to help change American diet
• Focus on the supply chain
Great Lakes Nutrient Management & Water Quality:
Taking a wider view
Don Scavia
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