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CHARTBOOK
o u e ear n ar s
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-
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED AND NO
REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED IS MADE AS TO, AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BEPLACED ON, THE FAIRNESS, ACCURACY,COMPLETENESS OR CORRECTNESS OF THIS INFORMATION OR
OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN.
CERTAIN STATEMENTS CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE STATEMENTS OF FUTURE EXPECTATIONS AND
OTHER FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS THAT ARE BASED ON MANAGEMENTS CURRENT VIEWS AND
ASSUMPTIONS AND INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD CAUSE ACTUAL
RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR EVENTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED IN SUCHSTATEMENTS.
NONE OF INCREMENTUM AG OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, ADVISORS OR REPRESENTATIVES SHALL HAVE ANY
USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ITS CONTENT OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THIS DOCUMENT.
THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR INVITATION TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY
SHARES AND NEITHER IT NOR ANY PART OF IT SHALLFORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED UPON IN CONNECTION
WITH ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT WHATSOEVER.
2
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Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
4
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Com arisonCom arison WWithith MidMid--CC clecle CCorrectionorrection in 70sin 70sCom arisonCom arison WWithith MidMid--CC clecle CCorrectionorrection in 70sin 70s
Quelle: Fed St. Louis, Erste Group, Incrementum AG
5
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CorrectionsCorrections SSinceince TThehe BBeginningeginning ofof TThishis BBull Marketull MarketCorrectionsCorrections SSinceince TThehe BBeginningeginning ofof TThishis BBull Marketull Market((LogarithmicLogarithmic ScaleScale))((LogarithmicLogarithmic ScaleScale))
Quelle: Fed St. Louis, Erste Group, Incrementum AG
6
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Two Bull Markets:Two Bull Markets:Two Bull Markets:Two Bull Markets:
o ara o co ara o c renren cce era on ecce era on eo ara o co ara o c renren cce era on ecce era on e
Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
7
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GoldGold DDurinurin VariousVarious CurrencCurrenc CrisesCrisesGoldGold DDurinurin VariousVarious CurrencCurrenc CrisesCrises
8
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Two Bull Markets:Two Bull Markets:Two Bull Markets:Two Bull Markets:
o ara o co ara o c renren cce era on ecce era on eo ara o co ara o c renren cce era on ecce era on e
Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
9
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StockStock--ToTo--Flow Ratio:Flow Ratio:StockStock--ToTo--Flow Ratio:Flow Ratio:
e ose os mpor anmpor an easoneason or or o so s one aryone ary a usa use ose os mpor anmpor an easoneason or or o so s one aryone ary a usa us
Sources: Incrementum AG
10
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StockStock--ToTo--Flow Ratio:Flow Ratio:StockStock--ToTo--Flow Ratio:Flow Ratio:
nnuannua ro uc onro uc on vs. o a oc nvs. o a oc n onnesonnesnnuannua ro uc onro uc on vs. o a oc nvs. o a oc n onnesonnes
Source: Incrementum AG
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RelativeRelative ScarcityScarcity:: GoldsGolds SupplySupply CurveCurve vs. M2 Growthvs. M2 GrowthRelativeRelative ScarcityScarcity:: GoldsGolds SupplySupply CurveCurve vs. M2 Growthvs. M2 Growth
Maximum, MinimumMaximum, Minimum andand Average RateAverage Rate ofof ChangeChange FFromrom 18681868 TToo 20112011Maximum, MinimumMaximum, Minimum andand Average RateAverage Rate ofof ChangeChange FFromrom 18681868 TToo 20112011
Sources: GoldMoney Foundation, "the aboveground Gold Stock: Ist Importance and IstSize", James Turk, Incrementum AG
12
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RelativeRelative ScarcityScarcity:: GoldsGolds SupplySupply CurveCurve vs. M2vs. M2RelativeRelative ScarcityScarcity:: GoldsGolds SupplySupply CurveCurve vs. M2vs. M2
Average RateAverage Rate ofof Change: Gold & M2 in Different TimeChange: Gold & M2 in Different Time PeriodsPeriodsAverage RateAverage Rate ofof Change: Gold & M2 in Different TimeChange: Gold & M2 in Different Time PeriodsPeriods
Sources: GoldMoney Foundation, "the aboveground Gold Stock: Ist Importance and IstSize", James Turk, Incrementum AG
13
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Gold vs. 200 Day Moving Average and DeviationGold vs. 200 Day Moving Average and DeviationGold vs. 200 Day Moving Average and DeviationGold vs. 200 Day Moving Average and Deviation
rom ay ov ng veragerom ay ov ng veragerom ay ov ng veragerom ay ov ng verage
Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
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-- --
Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
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NoNo OvervaluationOvervaluation ComparedCompared toto Stock Market Indices!Stock Market Indices!NoNo OvervaluationOvervaluation ComparedCompared toto Stock Market Indices!Stock Market Indices!
o vs. or o a e urno vs. or o a e urno vs. or o a e urno vs. or o a e urn
Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
16
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Dow/Gold Ratio since 1900Dow/Gold Ratio since 1900Dow/Gold Ratio since 1900Dow/Gold Ratio since 1900
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Incrementum AG
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Gold Silver & Commodities Durin DeflationGold Silver & Commodities Durin DeflationGold Silver & Commodities Durin DeflationGold Silver & Commodities Durin Deflation
Sources: Roy Jastram, The Golden Constant, Silver, the Restless Metal, Incrementum AG
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Real Interest Rates vs. Gold Price since 1971Real Interest Rates vs. Gold Price since 1971Real Interest Rates vs. Gold Price since 1971Real Interest Rates vs. Gold Price since 1971
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Incrementum AG
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Change in Inflation Rate vs. Change in Gold Price:Change in Inflation Rate vs. Change in Gold Price:
GoldGold DoesDoes NotNot CorrelateCorrelate WWithith Inflation Rates, ButInflation Rates, But WithWith thethe Change inChange in
Change in Inflation Rate vs. Change in Gold Price:Change in Inflation Rate vs. Change in Gold Price:
GoldGold DoesDoes NotNot CorrelateCorrelate WWithith Inflation Rates, ButInflation Rates, But WithWith thethe Change inChange in
Inflation RatesInflation RatesInflation RatesInflation Rates
Quelle: Fed St. Louis, Erste Group, Incrementum AG
20
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Sources: Bloomberg, Ferdinand Regner, Incrementum AG
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CrowdedCrowded Trade?Trade?CrowdedCrowded Trade?Trade?
GoldsGolds ShareShare ofof Total FinancialTotal Financial AssetsAssets CurrentlyCurrently atat aa MereMere 0.5%0.5%GoldsGolds ShareShare ofof Total FinancialTotal Financial AssetsAssets CurrentlyCurrently atat aa MereMere 0.5%0.5%
Sources: World Gold Council, Credit Suisse, World Federation of Exchanges, Incrementum AG
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DailyDaily TTradingrading VVolume in Billion USD:olume in Billion USD:DailyDaily TTradingrading VVolume in Billion USD:olume in Billion USD:
GoldGold IIss OOnene of of TThehe MMostost LLiquidiquid CCurrenciesurrenciesGoldGold IIss OOnene of of TThehe MMostost LLiquidiquid CCurrenciesurrencies
Sources: World Gold Council, Bloomberg, Incrementum AG
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Average Daily Turnover as % of TotalAverage Daily Turnover as % of Total
**
Average Daily Turnover as % of TotalAverage Daily Turnover as % of Total
**
Sources: German finance agency, Japanese MOF, SIFMA, Thomson Reuters GFMS, UK DMO, WGC
*Daily turnover is calculated as daily average volume divided by total outstanding value. In the case of gold, total
outstanding is calculated using private and public bullion holdings.
24
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Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
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Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
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GoodGood OutlookOutlook forfor BeerBeer--DrinkingDrinking GGoldold BBugs:ugs:GoodGood OutlookOutlook forfor BeerBeer--DrinkingDrinking GGoldold BBugs:ugs:
o o er eso o er es eer eer a oa oo o er eso o er es eer eer a oa o
Sources: www.HaaseEwert.de, Historical archive Spaten-Lwenbru, Incrementum AG
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Total Credit Market Debt Owed, GDP & MonetaryTotal Credit Market Debt Owed, GDP & MonetaryTotal Credit Market Debt Owed, GDP & MonetaryTotal Credit Market Debt Owed, GDP & Monetary
aseaseasease
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Incrementum AG
29
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ChangeChange in Central Bank Balance Sheets + Goldin Central Bank Balance Sheets + GoldChangeChange in Central Bank Balance Sheets + Goldin Central Bank Balance Sheets + Gold
r cer ce ncreasencrease:: anuaryanuary vs. ugusvs. ugusr cer ce ncreasencrease:: anuaryanuary vs. ugusvs. ugus
Sources: Central Bank Information, Bloomber , Incrementum AG
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Stocks are Cheap? Not reallyStocks are Cheap? Not reallyStocks are Cheap? Not reallyStocks are Cheap? Not really
:: erer s nces nce:: erer s nces nce
Sources: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm, Prof. Robert Shiller, Incrementum AG
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Consumer Prices in the USConsumer Prices in the US OverOver the Past Centurythe Past CenturyConsumer Prices in the USConsumer Prices in the US OverOver the Past Centurythe Past Century
n exen exen exen exe
Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
32
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BarelyBarely AnyAny Price DeflationPrice Deflation SSinceince 19131913 andandBarelyBarely AnyAny Price DeflationPrice Deflation SSinceince 19131913 andand
spec a yspec a y ncencespec a yspec a y ncence
Quelle: Fed Prof. Robert Sahr - Measuringworth
33
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Purchasing Power of the US Dollar Measured in Gold and OilPurchasing Power of the US Dollar Measured in Gold and OilPurchasing Power of the US Dollar Measured in Gold and OilPurchasing Power of the US Dollar Measured in Gold and Oil
erms vs. urc as ng ower o o n erms og. sca eerms vs. urc as ng ower o o n erms og. sca eerms vs. urc as ng ower o o n erms og. sca eerms vs. urc as ng ower o o n erms og. sca e
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Incrementum AG
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Sources: Grant Williams, Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
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Sources: Grant Williams, Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
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Real Interest RatesReal Interest Rates ostost BrettonBretton WoodsWoodsReal Interest RatesReal Interest Rates ostost BrettonBretton WoodsWoods
Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG
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US Bud et: Sur luses and DeficitsUS Bud et: Sur luses and DeficitsUS Bud et: Sur luses and DeficitsUS Bud et: Sur luses and Deficits
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Incrementum AG
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Interest Expense on the Debt OutstandingInterest Expense on the Debt OutstandingInterest Expense on the Debt OutstandingInterest Expense on the Debt Outstanding
onononon
Sources: Treasurydirect.gov, Incrementum AG
39
Debt held by Public (% of GDP):Debt held by Public (% of GDP):Debt held by Public (% of GDP):Debt held by Public (% of GDP):
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Debt held by Public (% of GDP):Debt held by Public (% of GDP):
Two Scenarios b the Government Accountabilit OfficeTwo Scenarios b the Government Accountabilit Office
Debt held by Public (% of GDP):Debt held by Public (% of GDP):
Two Scenarios b the Government Accountabilit OfficeTwo Scenarios b the Government Accountabilit Office
(GAO)(GAO)(GAO)(GAO)
Source: GAO, Incrementum AG
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Grand total Credit and debt er ca ita USD *Grand total Credit and debt er ca ita USD *Grand total Credit and debt er ca ita USD *Grand total Credit and debt er ca ita USD *
As of April 2012
41
ource: www.nowan u ures.com
G H h ld Fi i l &G H h ld Fi i l & NNG H h ld Fi i l &G H h ld Fi i l & NN
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Government, Household, Financial &Government, Household, Financial & NonNon--Government, Household, Financial &Government, Household, Financial & NonNon--
nanc a e onanc a e onanc a e onanc a e o
Source: The Economist, Incrementum AG
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Domestic vs. Forei n Debt % of GDPDomestic vs. Forei n Debt % of GDPDomestic vs. Forei n Debt % of GDPDomestic vs. Forei n Debt % of GDP
Source: The Economist, Incrementum AG
43
N b f th b kN b f th b kN b f th b kN b f th b k
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No bang for the buck:No bang for the buck:No bang for the buck:No bang for the buck:
ncreasencrease n rea per o ar o ncremen a en rea per o ar o ncremen a encreasencrease n rea per o ar o ncremen a en rea per o ar o ncremen a e
Sources: Ned Davis Research, Federal Reserve, Gary Shilling
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45
CC B k tB k t** M dM d i Ti T ff G ldG ldCC B k tB k t** M dM d i Ti T ff G ldG ld
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CurrencyCurrency BasketBasket** MeasuredMeasured in Termsin Terms ofof Gold:Gold:CurrencyCurrency BasketBasket** MeasuredMeasured in Termsin Terms ofof Gold:Gold:
Long TermLong Term DowntrendDowntrend IntactIntactLong TermLong Term DowntrendDowntrend IntactIntact
* The basket consists of US-Dollar, Euro, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Renminbi, Indiean Rupee, British Pound, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar
Sources: Fed St. Louis, Erste Group, Incrementum AG
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++++
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Incrementum AG
47
DevelopmentDevelopment ofof thethe MonetaryMonetary BaseBase sincesince 19991999DevelopmentDevelopment ofof thethe MonetaryMonetary BaseBase sincesince 19991999
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DevelopmentDevelopment ofof thethe MonetaryMonetary BaseBase sincesince 19991999DevelopmentDevelopment ofof thethe MonetaryMonetary BaseBase sincesince 19991999
n exen exe oon exen exe oo
Sources: Central Bank Websites, Bloomber , Incrementum AG
48
DevelopmentDevelopment ofof thethe MonetaryMonetary BaseBase sincesince 19991999DevelopmentDevelopment ofof thethe MonetaryMonetary BaseBase sincesince 19991999
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DevelopmentDevelopment ofof thethe MonetaryMonetary BaseBase sincesince 19991999DevelopmentDevelopment ofof thethe MonetaryMonetary BaseBase sincesince 19991999
n.n.n.n.
Sources: Central Bank Websites, Bloomber , Incrementum AG
49
PurchasingPurchasing PowerPower inin VariousVarious CCurrenciesurrencies HowHow MMuchuch GGoldoldPurchasingPurchasing PowerPower inin VariousVarious CCurrenciesurrencies HowHow MMuchuch GGoldold
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PurchasingPurchasing PowerPower inin VariousVarious CCurrenciesurrencies HowHow MMuchuch GGoldoldPurchasingPurchasing PowerPower inin VariousVarious CCurrenciesurrencies HowHow MMuchuch GGoldold
. ,. ,. ,. ,
Sources: Datastream, Incrementum AG
50
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Ad usted Monetar BaseAd usted Monetar Base oo Chan eChan eAd usted Monetar BaseAd usted Monetar Base oo Chan eChan e
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Incrementum AG
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52
HousingHousing Bubble in China?Bubble in China?HousingHousing Bubble in China?Bubble in China?
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HousingHousing Bubble in China?Bubble in China?HousingHousing Bubble in China?Bubble in China?
a oa o oo ouse r cesouse r ces oo nnua ncomennua ncomea oa o oo ouse r cesouse r ces oo nnua ncomennua ncome
Sources: Global Financial Stability Report: The Quest for Lasting Stability, IMF, April 2012
53
CantillonCantillon EffectEffect* Applied:* Applied:CantillonCantillon EffectEffect* Applied:* Applied:
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CantillonCantillon EffectEffect Applied: Applied:CantillonCantillon EffectEffect Applied: Applied:
e se s eaea ecec on yon y or or ee c esc ese se s eaea ecec on yon y or or ee c esc es
* The Cantillon effect describes the fact that newly created money is neither distributed evenly nor simultaneously in the population. That means that users of moneypartly profit from rising prices, and partly suffer from them. This results in a transfer of wealth, resp. a hidden tax, from later receivers to earlier receivers of new money.
Source: Incrementum AG
54
A Bull Market inA Bull Market in BureaucracyBureaucracy::A Bull Market inA Bull Market in BureaucracyBureaucracy::
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yyyy
agesages oo axax aw agesaw ages oo eg s a oneg s a onagesages oo axax aw agesaw ages oo eg s a oneg s a on
Sources: Incrementum AG
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APPENDIX
56
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Incrementum is the Latin word for:
a vancemen
expansion
development
offspring
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Incrementum AG is an owner-managed asset manager & wealth manager based in the Principality of
ec tenste n. ur us ness ocus s t e management o nvestment un s t at we e eve to e un que.
We evaluate all our investments not only in perspective of the global economy but in context of the current
state of the global monetary regime. This enables us to gather what we considera truly holistic view of
the state of financial markets. A dee understandin of monetar histor out of the box thinkin andprudent research enables our clients to prosper in this difficult market environment.
We believe our investment team offers a distinct skillset which has proven to be extremely valuable for us
as investors in these uncertain markets. Among our partners are experts within the fields of:
Asset Allocation
Fundamental Bottom Up Research
Precious Metals
Our boutique approach allows us to combine unconventional thinking with state of the art asset
management wisdom. Our independence empowers us to communicate unbiased and our flexibility
enables us to respond to evolving markets rapidly.
ur n en on s o e ver a se ec e range o nves men un s, w c we e eve are a e o growincrementally also during times of increasing economic challenges.
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Incrementum AG Liechtenstein is an asset management company founded in 2013 in Vaduz, Liechtenstein. As
independence is a cornerstone of our philosophy, the company is one hundred percent owned by its partners.There are no affiliations to any banking institut ions, which enables us to implement our investment strategies
autonomously. As a boutique with lean hierarchies, we are able to execute our strategies swiftly and respond to
regime changes flexibly. Our partners practice what they preach. Therefore we are invested in each of the funds
we manage.
The partners of Incrementum AG are highly qualified and have over 140 years of combined banking
exper ence. r or o o n ng e company e par ners e pos ons w n , res ner an , om ar er,Darier Hentsch & Cie., Cantrade Private Bank, PBS Private Bank, Bank Leu, Pictet & Cie., Bank Sal. Oppenheim,
Merrill Lynch, Raiffeisen Capital Management, Erste Group and Socit Gnrale.
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An economic school of thought that originated in Vienna during the late 19th century with the works of Carl Menger. The
us r an sc oo s se apar y s e e a e wor ngs o e roa economy are e sum o sma er n v ua ec s on
and actions, which are based on laws that can be deduced by rational logical methods, unlike the Chicago school and other
theories that look to surmise the future from historical abstracts, often using broad statistical aggregates.
Investopedia on the Austrian School of Economics
Central view points of the Austrian School of Economics:
Money is not neutral
Inflation is the increase in the supply of money and credit
Inflation is a harmful policy and causes a transfer of wealth (Cantillon Effect)
Private ownership and property rights are essential
Economics is all about individuals (subjectivism, methodological individualism)
Bailout policies lead to moral hazards
Prices signal scarcity and abundance and are essential for allocating resources efficiently
Erroneous price signals set by central banks are the cause of boom and bust cycles
Lowerin interest rates leads to distortions in the econom b alterin relative rices which results in an ,artificial boom. Eventually, misallocations and malinvestment can no longer be supported and a bust
ensues in which these misallocations are worked out
A return to sound money is necessary and advocated
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