Global Climate Change: An Engineering NGO Perspective
by
Bill Wallacepresented to
ASCE International ConferenceWeston Convention Center, Pittsburgh
November 5, 2008
Professional Perspectives in Addressing Climate Change
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Bill Wallace Bio
• Founder and President, Wallace Futures Group, LLC, Steamboat Springs, Colorado, USA
• Book author: Becoming Part of the Solution: The Engineer’s Guide to Sustainable Development
• Past-president of Engineers Without Borders–USA• Member of the ASCE Committee on Sustainability • Chair of the International Federation of Consulting
Engineers (FIDIC) Sustainable Development Committee• Subcommittee Chair of ACEC Environment & Energy
Committee• Member of the Democratic National Convention Green
Team• Former Liaison Delegate to the World Business Council for
Sustainable Development• 21 years at CH2M HILL in various senior positions
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Summary
• Engineering industry perspectives on climate change
• Role of engineers in addressing climate change– Engineering industry associations have long been
advocates for the engineering business– It’s time to change that role– Bridge the gaps among society, science and
politics
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Addressing Climate Change in Steamboat Springs
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Scientific Certainty Argumentation Method (S.C.A.M.)
• Scientific evidence for making policy decisions is always ambiguous or incomplete – “Uncertainty space” in scientific arguments creates
rich opportunities for gaming the system• S.C.A.M. technique on global climate change – Demand scientific certainty– Point to contrarian studies as “proof” that uncertainty
exists– Delay policy decisions and action– Extends the life of old paradigms
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Reference: William Freudenburg, Robert Gramling, Debre Davidson, “SCAMming environmental policy: policymakers crave certainty, but almost all science operates in shades of gray,” WorldWatch, May 1, 2008.
Climate Changes Policies in the Engineering Industry Associations
• American Council of Engineering Companies (ACEC)– “Carbon Balancing”
• International Federation of Consulting Engineers (FIDIC)– No published policies – Reactions of individual associations • Australia: ACEA• The Netherlands: ORNI
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ORNI(Dutch Association of Consulting Engineers)
President: Ed Nijpels, Former Netherlands Minister of the Environment
Activities related to the consulting engineering sector as Minister
• The first National Plan for the Environment in the Netherlands• The National Plan for Integrated Spatial Planning
Other Activities• Chairman of the National Board to Reinforce the Building
Industry• Chairman of the International Waddensea Forum• Chairman of the Climate Centre of the International Red Cross • Chairman of the Foundation Water for Life• Member of the Governmental Committee for PPP in
infrastructure • Member of the Advisory Board for Delta Technology 21st
Century
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Why a Politician?
Consulting Engineers Have
• Knowledge• Capabilities• Technical skills• Organization• Position to improve living
conditions in the world,
But…
Consulting Engineers Lack
• Avowed ambition• Political sensibility• Strong image• Communication skillsto claim a leadership
position for improving our society
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Ed Nijpels, ORNI
Why is a New Approach Needed?• Globalization• We live in a “Risk Society”• Relationship among society, science
and politics has changed
Who should be leading who?
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Ed Nijpels, ORNI
Consulting Engineers Can Be That Bridge
BUT…• Consulting engineers must
act beyond their commission
• Consulting engineers have a responsibility to do so
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Ed Nijpels, ORNI
HOW DO WE BRIDGE THE GAP?
Do a better job of defining the problemDevelop a technology roadmap for improving sustainable performance Demand extraordinary levels of cooperation and collaborationRevise engineering curriculums to deliver the engineer required for the 21st century
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Do a Better Job of Defining the Problem
• Climate change as a symptom of a flawed economic development model
• Need to understand the full breadth of the problems we’re dealing with– Current situation– Impacts and urgencies
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Climate Change as a Symptom of a Flawed Economic Development Model
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Our current model for economic development is not sustainable
Global Climate change Leading edge of many
problems to come Many are already here!
Do a better job of defining the problem
Need to Understand the Full Breadth of the Problems We’re Dealing With
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• What are people and organizations doing that isn’t sustainable?
• What are the consequences of continuing to be non-sustainable?
• How serious and urgent are these consequences?
• What needs to be done to fix them?
• What does it mean to be sustainable?
Do a better job of defining the problem
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Available Resources and Carrying Capacities: Current Situation
Ref: Mathis Wackernagel, et. al., “Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy,” Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Jul 9;99(14):9266-71
Ecological overshoot
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Do a better job of defining the problem
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Renewable resources (ecological) Use < Regeneration
Non-renewable resources (minerals, fuels) Use < Rate of development
of renewable substitutes
Pollution emissions Emissions < Carrying capacity
of the environment
What it Means to be Sustainable (A Thermodynamic Definition)
Herman E. Daly suggested these three operational rules defining the condition of ecological (thermodynamic) sustainability.
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Do a better job of defining the problem
Understand the Impacts and Urgencies• Changes are occurring at a
scope, scale and speed we never thought possible– Scope: Being felt
everywhere. More serious for the poor, less resilient nations
– Scale: Happening at all scales (local, regional, global) and in all sectors.
– Speed: Happening faster than we ever imagined
• Climate change is the leading edge of this change
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Do a better job of defining the problem
Source: Pew Center for Global Climate Change
Correlation of CO2 Concentration to Temperature Rise
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CO2CO2
TemperatureTemperature
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Do a better job of defining the problem
Significant Climate Anomalies and Events in 2007
Source: UNEP Year Book, 2008
Heat wave
Heavy Snows
Low precipitation
Heavy Rains
Extreme storm
Drought
Low temps
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Do a better job of defining the problem
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Develop a Technology Roadmap for Improving Sustainable Performance
• Response to climate change is most urgent– Adaptation, mitigation
• Working at the project level isn’t sufficient– We owe it to society to challenge unsound, politically-
motivated initiatives, e.g., corn-based ethanol• The engineering community has that the requisite
knowledge and experience– Knows what works or can work– Also technology gaps– Can team with the scientific community to set research
priorities, agendas
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Develop a Technology Road Map
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Path Forward
Development and application of more sustainable technologies
Today
1980 2000 20201970 1990 2010 2030
Num
ber o
f Ear
ths
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Number of Earths Used by Humanity
Number of Earths Available
Target pathway
Projections
Opportunities for innovation
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Develop a Technology Road Map
Technology Roadmap Outline• Subject areas (framework)• Desired end state• Schedule for achieving this end state• Urgencies, deadlines• "Wild cards”• Critical technologies• Gaps in technology• Framework conditions• Actions to take, in priority order• Resource implications• Alternative scenarios, strategies,
approaches
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Develop a Technology Road Map
Demand Extraordinary Levels of Cooperation and Collaboration
• Requirements for addressing global climate change– Cooperation and collaboration by all of society to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions– Good Luck!
• Problem: “The Tragedy of the Commons”*
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Demand cooperation and collaboration
*"The Tragedy of the Commons," Garrett Hardin, Science, 162(1968):1243-1248.
Revise Engineering Curriculums to Deliver the Engineer Required for the 21st Century
• Provide meaning and context to engineering education
• Development of globally aware and internationally responsible engineers, students, and professionals.
• “Engineering Education 3.0”
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Revise Engineering Curriculums
“Engineering Education 3.0”• 1.0 Age of attrition
– Solving engineering puzzles out of context
– Engineering is not for slackers!
• 2.0 Age of competition– Puzzles plus practicum– Design contests, mostly single
discipline focused – Engineering can be fun!
• 3.0 Age of contribution– Puzzles in context– How engineering contributes to
quality of life– Engineering has significance!
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Revise Engineering Curriculums
Closing Remarks
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Contact information:Bill Wallace, A.M. ASCEMember, ASCE Committee on Sustainability Wallace Futures Group, LLC+1(970)[email protected]
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