Global changes and challenges concerning water: Where do
we go?
András Szöllösi-NagyUNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education
• Food prices up. Reasons:– floods: Australia– drought: Russia– bad weather: South
America– biofuel policies
• better forecasting models,optimal management of water resources
Floods and droughts: food, human lives, political crises
• Water CyclingDeeply Embedded in Earth System
• Interconnections are Strong
• Change to One Part Reverberates Throughout
• Complex research agenda
The Global Water System
Humans are changing the global water system in a globally-significant way
without…..adequate knowledge of the system and thus its response to change
First message:
6
•Is the cycle changing?•Increased risks?•Growing vulnerability?•More disasters ?•Less water for people?•Crisis is looming?•What crisis?•Global or local?
WATER
Global change drivers:
• Population growth, movement and age structures
• Geo-political changes and realignments• Trade and subsidies• Technological changes• Climate change
U.S. B
ureau of the Census
1950
Source:U.N. Population
Division
World Cities exceeding 5 million residents
2015
Source:U.N. Population
Division
World Cities exceeding 5 million residents
10
11
12
Global change impacts• Global change is more than global climate variability/change• It has natural PLUS human/social dimensions• A constellation of changes, many global in domain
For example, we see large changes in:
NOAA Vitousek (1994)
Mackenzie et al (2002)
Richards (1991), W
RI
(1990)Reid &
Miller(1989)
From: Steffen et al. 2004
The Earth System: Coupling the Physical, Biogeochemicaland Human Components
2
4
3
5
6
1
0
Glo
bal
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)
IPCC Projectionsfor 2100
N.H
. Tem
pera
ture
(°
C)
0
0.5
1
-0.5
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Lower Risk forInstabilities
High Riskfor Instabilities
Flood Disaster in Pakistan (August, 2010)
Flood Disaster in Korea (September 21, 2010)
Flood Disaster in Australia (January, 2011)
20
Does the cycle accelerate?
Climate change: What do we know?
• Global Mean Temperature have increased
• Greenhouse Gases play a role
• Reducing Emissions alone will not avoid impacts
Korea
Czech
ドイツ
China
Nepal
India
Bangladesh
Bolivia
Haiti/ Jamaica
Uruguay
USA
Mexico
Ecuador
PeruMicronesia
Philippines
Indonesia
Vietnam
Senegal
Ethiopia
Turkey
Austria
Kenya
France Afghanistan
Russia
Sri Lanka
Flood Drought
Major floods and droughts worldwide in 2002Major floods and droughts worldwide in 2002Germany China
USA
KoreaChinaGermany
Kenya
There is pressing need to develop advanced risk management on water hazard in order to secure human life and ensure sustainable socio-economic development and poverty alleviation.
ADAPTATION OPTIONS:
MORE STORAGEMORE HYDROPOWERMORE GROUNDWATER USEMORE INLAND NAVIGATION
WE WILL NEED MORE STORAGE
25
STORAGE IS THE NEXUS BETWEENWATER / FOOD / ENERGY
2102550100>100
Stored Runoff< 2% annual flow
1800 20001900• 700% increase in
water held by river systems
• Several years of residence time change in many basins
• Tripling of river runoff travel times globally (from 20 up to 60 days)
• Substantial impact on aquatic biodiversity
• Interception of 30% of continental TSS flux
1950 2000
History of US Dam & Reservoir Construction
From: Vörösmarty et al. 2004, Eos-AGU Trans.
43746
1,287 1,4062,486
3,255
4,729
6,150
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000
Eth
iopi
a
Sou
thA
frica
Thai
land
Laos
Chi
na
Bra
zil
Aus
tralia
Nor
thA
mer
ica
Water storage per person (m3)
Infrastructure gap: Water storage [m3/person]
THE HYDROPOWER CHALLANGE
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Years
Rea
l GDP
gro
wth
(%)
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Varia
bilit
y in
Rai
nfal
l (M
eter
)
Real GDP grow th (%)
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe
Rainfall affects growth..the case of Zimbabwe
Vörösmarty et al. 2000
• 80% of future stress frompopulation
& development, not climate change!
•Correct Priorities?(E.g. 85% US global changeresearch funding to climate and carbon)
Water Stress Changes to 2025 (scenario)
FLOOD LOSSES IN FUNCTION OF GDP
LOOMING WATERCRISES
The time of easy water is over
Second message:
WATER IS A SOURCE OF COOPERATION
Third message:
33
“There is no sustainable development without
adequate information about the state of the Earth and its
environment”
Statement at WSSD
Fourth message:
(Source: D. Solomatine)
Flow of information in a Hydroinformatics system
Earth observation, monitoring
Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Data modelling, integration with hydrologic and hydraulic models
Access to modelling results
Data Models Knowledge Decisions
Decision support
Map of flood probability
(Source: D. Solomatine)36
Remotely sensed data
High Technology Earth Systems Tools•Satellite data•Simulation models•Geospatial analysis tools
Huge progress but…
Our capacity to monitor remains limited
Fifth message:
The big challenge we all have
How to put water in the minds of people?
WATER EDUCATION,CAPACITY BUILDING,
EFFECTIVE PARTNERSHIP
SIXTH MESSAGE:
UNESCO-IHE is the largest international post-graduate water education facility in the world. The institute confers fully accredited MSc degrees and promotes PhDs.
The Institute carries out numerous research and capacity development projects throughout the world.
Since 1957 the Institute has provided post-graduate education to more than 14,500 water professionals from over 160 countries, the vast majority from the developing world.
WHO WE ARE & WHAT WE DO
REGIONAL 2010-2011DISTRIBUTION OF PARTICIPANTS
The 8/10 syndrome
UNESCO-IHE Governing Board (2009):“… reform is needed …”
REFORM PROCESSMove towards the UNESCO-IHE
Global Campus of Water Education and Research
What does that mean for Water Education?
WILL THERE BE ENOUGH WATER FOR THE 21ST
CENTURY?
We want to generate …
• The political will to … DO IT
• The capacity to … DO IT RIGHT
• The resources to … DO IT RIGHT NOW
“Anybody who can solve the problems of water will be
worthy of two Nobel Prizes, one for peace and one for
science.”
(President John. F. Kennedy)
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7th and FINAL MESSAGE:
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