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Copyright:
Global Carbon Budget 2016
Ocean and land
Emissions
Atmosphere
While atmospheric CO2 moves permanently above 400ppm
Emissions trends vary among countries
Between the Paris agreement and the Marrakesh plan of action, we are here
GtC
O2 p
er y
ear
GtC
O2 p
er y
ear
...only near zero emissions will stop this rise
Atmospheric CO2 levels
have crossed 400 ppm...
Uncertainty rangefor 2015–16
Global emissions from fossil fuels and industry did not grow in 2015 and are projected to rise slightly in 2016. �is is the third year in a row where global emissions are below 1% growth while global GDP exceeds 3% growth
Atmospheric CO2 concentration will continue to rise until CO2 emissions are cut down to near zero
Data: Scripps/NOAA-ESRL
Data: CDIAC/GCP
Data: CDIAC/GCP
After rising >5% per year the previous decade, China’s emissions decreased in 2015 and are projected to decrease again in 2016
TurkeyAustraliaMexico BrazilSouth Korea Saudi Arabia Iran Indonesia
CanadaJapanRussia IndiaEuropean UnionUSAChina South Africa
Produced by the Future Earth Media Lab for the Global Carbon Project. http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htmWritten and edited by Corinne Le Quéré (Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia) with the Global Carbon Budget team.Updated from 2015 version. Infographic by Nigel Hawtin. �anks to Glen Peters, Asher Minns, Bob Woolliams for comments. Credits: Le Quéré et al. Earth System Science Data 2016; NOAA-ESRL and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography; CDIAC.NDC projection based on UNFCCC analysis based of Rogelj et al Nature 2016 assuming constant CO2/GHG ratio
�e big El Niño in 2015-2016 led to smaller CO2 uptakeby plants and left much more emissions in the atmosphere than usual
High emissions leadingto dangerous warming
Country pledges (NDCs) for 2030 exceed the warming limit of the Paris Agreement
Baseline
2°C
CO
2 e
mis
sion
s (G
tCO
2/y
r)
0.9-2.3°C
3.2–5.4°Crelative to 1850–1900
2016projection
Decreasing emissions compatible with a wellbelow 2°C warming limit
Data: CDIAC/GCP/IPCC/Fuss et al 2014/Rogelj et al 2016
Reduced coal use in China largely accounts for the plateau in emissions
2004-2013 per year
–1.0% to +1.8%
2.4%
1960
315 ppm
2016
January December
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2016
2000 2005 2010 2016
400 ppm
390 ppm
40
35
30
25
2016201020052000
CO
2 e
mis
sion
s (G
tCO
2/y
r)
1990 2015
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
0
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100−20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Atm
osph
eric
CO
2 at M
auna
Loa
(ppm
)
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